Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues (Read 1997 times)

None, it's just doing the opposite and I can't even think how you would be able to do it even in theory, forget about the number of matches, what do you do with draws?
You have for example Westham vs Brighton 2.78 vs 2.47, what's the take here, you bet on the lower or on the higher, what happens if you have slighter happy odds like Liverpool is having now for the draw, so while the minimum bet is a cleat thing as you can't have two favorites both under 1.5 over it...it's no man's land!

For the experiment, it will have to wait, I drove 1900km two days ago, I had no time for anything, I will recreate it from scratch again for this round, I'm not even sure who's playing who, I'm just catching up!

And what is the logic here? Do you think that bookmakers are pricing this outcome incorrectly? Don't you understand that it doesn't matter whether the coefficient is big or small, but it does matter whether it is profitable or not. You say that the OP's strategy does not guarantee success, but yours does? Are there any arguments here other than general reasoning.

Betting on low odds doesn't guarantee Profit when it comes to sports betting. Just because the odds are favour of a particular team doesn't mean that it's a hundred percent sure that they would win. You might just be surprised that underdogs might end up winning the game. The overconfidence we have on some teams is one reason why we lose money and also low odds can be deceiving. I prefer to go with the over option with these category of games, it's more logical to go with over 1.5 but nothing is sure when it comes to gambling, you always have to play safe.

I knew it by the time I saw the multi, it was up to 81, I checked the bets, and a ton in the limit 1.45, 1.49, most dangerous of all, but I'm not surprised, I cried wolf so many times probably every wolf in the universe heard me by now

Ah lol round 13, of course we had bad luck

Round 13
- Individual bets balance  -5.6
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 13 rounds and 126 games

- Individual bets balance +0.54
- Multiplier balance +23.58

Unfortunately, this is also a record in terms of losing outcomes: 8 out of 14! Just wow. This is one of those black days that we talked about earlier - one such series turns the whole situation upside down and after that it is very difficult to return to the plus (at the very least it will take a long time).
But in fact the result of this round is really anomalous - I can't remember such a fall of the favorites. I remember last season I had a multi-bet where I lost 7 out of 8 outcomes, but not all the odds were small.

It's not a single bet!
I post only the multiplier since it's easier to show the matches but the experiment counts also the individual match results, so it's now up to 126 matches bets if I got the counting right each round and didn't miss one so, for example, this round had 15 bets, 14 individual and the multiplier.

Also, quite funny, the multi-bet selection has won twice, that's why the multi-balance looks like this right now:
- Multiplier balance +24.58 with 12 wagered!

I totally understand this, but what's more confusing is on which team your wager is ... In the descriptive photo, under the position where you got 1x2, your options are supposed to show up there... So I'm wondering, how did this turn out for y'all? Were you able to stick to the plan cus obviously, this is an old thread?

That's always a rough, but necessary turn in the game of football. I wasn't expecting that you'd constantly wager on the advantage of bigger teams against the smaller ones... Yunno that's not gonna deliver the same outcome, regardless of the odds all the time right? So yes, I don't find any thing challenging in this strategy -- especially since it's a single bet!!

You can try to watch low leagues. They have matches everyday. And i bet at online events, so you can easily see such odds during the match. I made at least 3-5 bets per day from Mon to Th. At weekend i could bet non-stop.

The main advantage of your experiment is top leagues - they have less surprises. But even in these leagues there is place for random. And near the end of the season we can see additional problems due to strategy and the table.

I wish you gl, it is always interesting when somene ready to spend time and money and share the result with everyone.  But i`m sure that result will be disappointing.

This time I did place the bets in time and it was quite the day, 14 games, I think this is a record.



Unfortunately, the multi is already a loss, and although I say it a lot of times and prove to be wrong this might be the day we definitely turn red, 4 losses agsint 3 wins and my god the rest of the matches are even worse. Funny enough, we had all top teams screwing us till now so I'm eager to see what Barcelona and PSG will be doing tomorrow, we need 4+ losses tomorrow to turn the experiment into a loss, my bet would be on Milan Dortmund and Sociaedad which I don't even know what's doing there!

You may be right about what statistics say about the end outcome of the tow regardless of the wagering amount, but in the end, the responsible note in gambling with low wagering can't be shortchanged for anything. And I can assure you that if luck did not visit the gambler early enough, the one wagering with a big risk is in serious trouble, which makes the lower wagering better overall. The tide could only change when the high wagerer is lucky early enough, and then he may win that Jackpot through the leverage of the risk. Notwithstanding, if the high-risk taker continues like that, he might lose back the won money fast too and even lose more than that.

You missed the part about the proofs!
You ran an experiment betting on anything under 1.1 is hardly an experiment since it's obvious you would have missed matches, all leagues, and all kinds of sports, how do you even get under 1.1 odds to bet each day? I have 4 matches under 1.1 on my list, I would have bet only once every month based on this!

I hope I don't have to repeat myself, but I speak on data, collected week after week after week on as the same rule, the same leagues, no missed games, no doubling down, so if you try to prove something, well, you will need raw data too! 

May be because:
The main difference that is in the leagues. But if you today bet on Manchester City(just exapmle) - you mostly lose the bet. The same time you have to bet if the odd is ok due to the experiment conditions. That`s why i`m talking about analyze. If you just remove some matches from the betting - it is easy enough to get profit with all other same conditions. But without analyze one day the number of mistakes become too high.
Let`s wait the result of the season, of course, but even 4 months don`t give a guarantee of the result at the end

I simply don't get it!
Why do people say it's impossible when you have the results here, archived and added for over 12 rounds and 4 months of matches?
Right now the individual matches are 5% of the bankroll up, I don't care about perceived results, I don't care about what things "should' be, the results are here, one after the other round after round, everyone can check the matches and the bets!

For sure in the long run, it might prove costly but right now it's no denying that it was profitable, small amounts of course but if anyone had copied this they would have won to date! Of course, this might turn bad in two weeks or 4 months but this is the whole point of the experiment, not feelings not assumptions but raw poofs!

I tried an experiment looks like it. The main difference that i made bets in all leagues every day.
In my experiment the odds were less than 1.1, no any analyze - just "odd is ok? lets bet", bankroll $100, bet size - $10(when the bankroll became $50 - bet size decreased to $5) The result was -$100 after 3weeks of  betting.
Of course the main leagues decreases chances of losing, but 1.5 odds tell us that you need at least 2/3 win rate not to lose. It is impossible without analyze and choosing kust a part of matches for betting as for me.

Well, this is embarrassing, and thank you PSG for not making it worse, so in short, I forgot to put the bets! 

Now, to keep the results of the experiment, I ran to:
https://www.oddsportal.com/football/
and got all the under 1.5 odds at SP before the match started, and did the simulation:
If PSG had won, I would have really punched myself, it would have been again a 10 win for the multi



Results for the unplayed round:

Round 12
- Individual bets balance +1.16
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 12 rounds and 112 games

- Individual bets balance +6.14
- Multiplier balance +24.58


This is the biggest downside to this strategy, you can miss one round that would have been profitable and everything would look completely different.

Bookie's margin is different from RTP, there is no guarantee for a margin.

I can give you an example since I'm more in horse racing, a year or two before the pandemic there was an unusual day at Ascot when favorites won one after the other, it didn't matter the odds even in races with 14 horses the favorite won, the estimate is that bookies lost millions in it since at the end of the 3rd day everyone was betting on the favorite , odds were crashing down from 2.0 to 1.2 or 1.3 but people won, so there was barely any loss. The same happened with Dettori at Santa Anita, the guy won 6 races the same day, and by his 4rth race, everyone was betting on him, that the bookies couldn't keep up, dropping him from 12:1 to 5:1 and still losing.

So, the bookie can't really set a margin if the team wins and wins and wins,  and nobody bets on the losing side, the bets go to 1.01 and that's it, they close it even before the race or match is done because they would simply not afford to pay a penny more.

Furthermore, even let's say the bookie has a margin of 10%, it really doesn't matter to the odds I'm playing, since my math is after his supposed take, so I'm playing with the ods I get not with their margin, so unlike slots for example, I'm doing the math starting with 100% after RTP.

TLDR: yup, it's different.

Back to the experiment I'm not even going to care about the games during the week, common, screw them, play in the weekend like every normal nation1

Ok, if we are talking about pure numbers: we can take any game -> take the bookmaker's odds for all outcomes -> calculate the bookmaker's margin. It will be in favor of the bookmaker everywhere, right? Your point is that you believe that although the bookmaker takes its margin in general, the odds for outcomes where the favorite wins are incorrect (on average) and here the player has an advantage?

As for my winnings, there are big odds (x91, x123), so a much larger number of bets is needed to talk about average figures.

I just hate when this happens, I always say I will update the results and then I forget and I need to make another 2 in 1 update cause I was too lazy to post results last week.

So, again a update for both rounds 10 and 11

Round 10 had one loss Citttttyyyyy !!!!!!, 7 wins
- Individual bets balance +2.2
- Multiplier balance -1

Round 11 had 3 losses, 4 wins, I think this was the worst one in the experiment
- Individual bets balance -1.34
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 11 rounds and 104 games

- Individual bets balance +4.98
- Percentage win 4.74%

- Multiplier balance +25.58
- Percentage win 233%

Still positive!

When it happens over a long period of time and it's not happening in a time-based cycle, as it involves ups and downs of different values it becomes much of a pattern rather than guessing, again it doesn't have to be a win very year, you play the long game , just as with stocks.


I don't believe in a consensus based on feelings, I believe in hard numbers, and even if this experiment will not convince anyone as it might looked as a freak event, I'm happy to keep it going next year too.
Anyhow, congratulations on the wins, you see that it can be done despite the bookie margin?


Day 10


Shitty games, normally I would stay away from every single one of them apart maybe the two from La Liga, it's like a reunion of teams that always like to screw you over.

Yes, of course I remember that table and I expressed my thoughts about it (retrospective analysis does not give any idea of ​​what will happen in the future).
There is a lot of evidence and I do not even see the point in looking for specific/fresh experiments because it seems that there is a consensus that the bookmaker always takes his margin, right?
Distortions in quotes are a relatively common occurrence, but over time they all level out. That is why I am surprised that you are in the black.
In any case, I am happy to continue to follow your experiment and I appreciate that you are conducting it consistently.

P.S. In fact, I am also interested because according to my calculations I am in the black (on multi-bets). This should not be  One difference is that I make them up not only from small coefficients.