Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

So, update for both rounds 8 and 9 as promised

Round 8 had one loss Monaco d'oh, 7 wins
- Individual bets balance +1
- Multiplier balance -1

Round 9 had 3 losses, 8 wins
- Individual bets balance -0.28
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 9 rounds and 89 games

- Individual bets balance +4.12
- Percentage win 4.62%

- Multiplier balance +27.58
- Percentage win 306%

Still positive! Grin

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Late Friday and I think that this time I really missed a few games, I will have to do a bit of extra work to check whatever games were played today, also I didn't have time to update the previous results, and a lot more. I thought this thing is not time consuming but there are times when you can't spare a second. Anyhow, 11 games, I will have to reconstruct the individual matches from the SP bets but I managed to place the multi at 22 to 1.

I will update both the curnet results and the title during weekend before I manage to lose track of it completely.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1951

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: bitbollo on November 02, 2024, 09:16:28 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 27, 2024, 03:34:56 PM

...

Statistically you will win more or less the same amount in the long term, unless one of the two players is able to be a good gambler!
When we had betting competition in forum these two approaches were always the major part.
Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes

it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

Statistically more reliable, the result is achieved with a large number of bets. That is, to come to the "expected" result (bettor's loss) it is only necessary to make as many bets as possible. To try to win, you need to take advantage of high volatility and make a small number of bets, that is, use multi-bets with huge odds. I chose this approach, but I don't mind looking at other people's experiments.

Wakate

hero member

Activity: 1176

Merit: 543

fillippone - Winner contest Pizza 2022

Quote from: Charles-Tim on August 30, 2024, 12:41:26 PM

Quote from: YOSHIE on August 30, 2024, 07:07:39 AM

Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).

This is not an easy pick at all. I guess that Real Madrid could win this match. It is an home match for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has only played just one home match this season with Real Valladolid and it won the match with 3 goals. Real Bestie drew away match with Deportivo Alaves but this is not Real Madrid.

Sport bets is becoming something else and I have been contemplating that most of these matches are fixed matches and it's just funny that nobody is talking about this. We keep losing bets everyday due to matches that is well sure it's going to end end now becoming an horrible nightmare. Even some few matches I have seen today looks like they are being manipulated by the both team. Arsenal losing there match today is something I keep thinking about and others matches too that could have given gamblers huge winnings. The lose in gambling can be huge if we don't seat down and make proper plans considering risk management so that we don't keep complaining.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: bitbollo on November 02, 2024, 09:16:28 AM

Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes

it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

And with higher ROI comes higher risk and lower chances of actual winning, and int he end you will be close to the same thing as betting with lower odds that win most of the time but get drowned by one or two eventual losses. Speaking of losses, the round has not even begun in earnest and the multiplier is a loss from the first game, Monaco losing 1-0 yesterday, I wasn't even aware of that, just saw my bet as lost, lol. So, probably this round will suck big time with such a start current profit can tank only 3 loses before it gets red!

bitbollo

legendary

Activity: 3276

Merit: 3537

Nec Recisa Recedit

Quote from: KTChampions on October 27, 2024, 03:34:56 PM

...

Statistically you will win more or less the same amount in the long term, unless one of the two players is able to be a good gambler!
When we had betting competition in forum these two approaches were always the major part.
Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes

it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: swogerino on October 27, 2024, 01:15:10 PM

It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

Exactly why the experiment runs for the entire year for all leagues!

Round 7, barely made it in time otherwise I would have had to pick up the results from the archive again, and again the matches look like not something you would wage on, way too many very low odds, making this look more like under 1.3 than 1.5. I said it the last time the matches were a bad pick and they all turned good so, so god knows how this one will play, as usual zero faith in it and I just keep this going for the fun of it and the end result, but for now we have a 6.95 multi and 2.23 for individual bets, less than 33% even if all win. Undecided

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1951

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: swogerino on October 27, 2024, 01:15:10 PM

This is considered by many the safe approach however I am afraid to say that over the long run you will hit some really nasty days like the one where almost all good teams draw their game. It can happen almost exclusively in the European major leagues and that is why I have decided to go another way, I prefer to bet the minimum bet like 0.01 cent and try to win 100 dollars or more with really big odds in very big tickets of maximum allowed games of 25 per ticket. It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

This is literally what I wrote in the post above. Constant small wins are eventually erased by one bad day. That's why I also prefer big odds so that a rare win can erase all unsuccessful bets.
In your huge odds strategy, do you use small odds as components of your multiples or do you go for the big odds straight away?

P.S. stompix Congratulations on a successful round, in fact it was a round where many were seriously surprised by the results, but you turned out to be lucky.

swogerino

legendary

Activity: 3318

Merit: 1247

Bitcoin Casino Est. 2013

This is considered by many the safe approach however I am afraid to say that over the long run you will hit some really nasty days like the one where almost all good teams draw their game. It can happen almost exclusively in the European major leagues and that is why I have decided to go another way, I prefer to bet the minimum bet like 0.01 cent and try to win 100 dollars or more with really big odds in very big tickets of maximum allowed games of 25 per ticket. It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Round 7 is over, 5 matches all wins

The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +1.27
- Multiplier balance +2.05

And the total stats for 7 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +3.40
- Percentage win 5.66%

- Multiplier balance +29.58
- Percentage win 422%

Third multi, this one is obviously quite easy but still, if there are two things that might end up being highlighted by this experiment is that individual betting would be better as rolling sums or wagering requirements as the returns are below interest rates while the multi might be more rewarding for the risks although clearly inconsistent!

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1951

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on October 26, 2024, 07:56:20 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 25, 2024, 02:58:30 PM

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.

Because I don't want bet on this specifically, I want to prove or disprove (whatever comes out) the betting on under 1.x odds.
I could of course go for handicaps but that would invalidate the previous results as I didn't go for them from the start and the balance would have looked different, I could go for goals or for handicaps or for Asian but I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and have the time to deal with it, maybe next year I would go for all there and compare again the results but again I want to point out I'm making an experiment, it's not like I am purposely chasing an outcome here, if I end up losing 200 bets on it that's it, this is what the experiment showed and everyone should know to keep away from such strategy!
~

Ok! It makes sense to choose a specific type of bet and stick to it throughout the season. In general, you already have quite interesting results (with a significant number of bets, you are still in the black), but perhaps here you should take into account the variability. Let's say a round when you win all 5-7 choices is almost the norm (due to low odds), but such a round does not greatly increase the overall win. But a round where most of the choices are unsuccessful will seriously damage the balance. This can be compared with the deposit graph when a player uses Martingale.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: KTChampions on October 25, 2024, 02:58:30 PM

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.

Because I don't want bet on this specifically, I want to prove or disprove (whatever comes out) the betting on under 1.x odds.
I could of course go for handicaps but that would invalidate the previous results as I didn't go for them from the start and the balance would have looked different, I could go for goals or for handicaps or for Asian but I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and have the time to deal with it, maybe next year I would go for all there and compare again the results but again I want to point out I'm making an experiment, it's not like I am purposely chasing an outcome here, if I end up losing 200 bets on it that's it, this is what the experiment showed and everyone should know to keep away from such strategy!

Quote from: alani123 on October 25, 2024, 03:54:54 PM

The result in the OP is not great but it's not terrible either. I could see some people saying it's not right to compare things over such a tiny profit margin that a single defeat could overturn the entire profitablity.
Well at least till now the profitability is possible.

To be honest I still doubt it, when I started my bet on this was that it would end in red, and honestly I still don't see how it could be even marginally profitable for someone to keep doing it every week and if the profitability stays under 5% that's basically bank deposit interest! Wink

alani123

legendary

Activity: 2422

Merit: 1451

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

The result in the OP is not great but it's not terrible either. I could see some people saying it's not right to compare things over such a tiny profit margin that a single defeat could overturn the entire profitablity.

Well at least till now the profitability is possible. I would say most people tend to lose money so already this is. Success. In any case I would say people need to consider the high likelyhood of losing money before holding themselves under different opinion

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1951

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on October 23, 2024, 06:15:28 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 21, 2024, 10:34:41 AM

I wanted to clarify - you made a single bet on each outcome + a multi-bet on all the outcomes on which you made a single bet, right?

Yeah, I do the math like that, 1 unit of betting on each game and 1 unit on the multiplier game, of all of them put together.

Round 7 is disappointing, for the first time we have only 5 matches, and as a weird coincidence even those are low odds, with 1.12 and 1.17, even the multiplier is just above 3 so really pathetic, it might turn out again a winner but as these odds it's just a no in normal gambling, for the experiment it's ok but I won't do it in normal life.

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.
I understand that psychologically a handicap bet is perceived as a completely different type of betting, but from an experimental point of view, the odds are odds and it doesn’t matter what they are based on.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: KTChampions on October 21, 2024, 10:34:41 AM

I wanted to clarify - you made a single bet on each outcome + a multi-bet on all the outcomes on which you made a single bet, right?

Yeah, I do the math like that, 1 unit of betting on each game and 1 unit on the multiplier game, of all of them put together.

Round 7 is disappointing, for the first time we have only 5 matches, and as a weird coincidence even those are low odds, with 1.12 and 1.17, even the multiplier is just above 3 so really pathetic, it might turn out again a winner but as these odds it's just a no in normal gambling, for the experiment it's ok but I won't do it in normal life.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1951

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on October 21, 2024, 02:15:06 AM

The round turned out to be completely the opposite of what I expected, every single match was a win, and the results after 6 rounds are a bit surprising even to me.

The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +3.34
- Multiplier balance +15.94

And the total stats for 6 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +2.13
- Amount wagered on single bets 55
- Percentage win 3.87%

- Multiplier balance +27.53
- Amount wagered on single bets 6
- Percentage win 458%

And now counting the fact that some leagues have only 27 games left to play like the Bundesliga then the multi bet is a win even by round 6 as even if all bets are lost it will still have a tiny positive balance, basically not enough matches left to lose to mark it as a loss, a result I wouldn't have thought possible at all.

Nice round! Who would have thought that after the break for national team games, most of the favorites would show such stability.
I wanted to clarify - you made a single bet on each outcome + a multi-bet on all the outcomes on which you made a single bet, right?
The fact that you will be in the black at the end of the season (on multi-bets) is a pleasant feeling, I also recently won a big multi-bet and guaranteed a positive season

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

The round turned out to be completely the opposite of what I expected, every single match was a win, and the results after 6 rounds are a bit surprising even to me.

The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +3.34
- Multiplier balance +15.94

And the total stats for 6 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +2.13
- Amount wagered on single bets 55
- Percentage win 3.87%

- Multiplier balance +27.53
- Amount wagered on single bets 6
- Percentage win 458%

And now counting the fact that some leagues have only 27 games left to play like the Bundesliga then the multi bet is a win even by round 6 as even if all bets are lost it will still have a tiny positive balance, basically not enough matches left to lose to mark it as a loss, a result I wouldn't have thought possible at all.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

With such a long break I almost forgot about this one, glad it was just Friday so I caught al games , 9 in total.

As always some really bad games I would not want to play usually for my tickets and some that would look way more attractive being outside the 1.5 margin, but this is what the experiment is about, no feelings just math.
So here we are round 6, nine games, multi is 16x, and total individual is just a bit over 3.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1951

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on October 08, 2024, 07:03:05 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 08, 2024, 03:53:16 PM

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

I know that but the the point of the experiment is betting on odds lower than 1.5 so if I put a bet now on Bayern at 1.45 and it turns out by the 16th is 1.55 what am I going to do, scratch it? Same for ignoring now a bet of 1.55 that would turn out to be 1.50 by next Friday, it would be a pain in the ass to deal with changing odds as I would need to double check every time. I could go for SP bets but that would mean betting on everything and then eliminating the ones over, not that it would be that much work but it's no fun in it and it's prone to way too many mistakes!

Anyhow, this focuses only on the bet, not on what that bet is, devoid of all feelings, bet on everything that is under 1.5!
~

In my opinion, it makes no difference what the coefficient became "later". If at some point you made a bet on odds less than 1.5, then this bet satisfies the conditions of the experiment. If not, then the same logic can be applied to live bets - there, quite often, the coefficient of 1.5 turns into 2+, but at the moment when we bet, we do not know where it will change next.

I have a couple of freebets (they have a time limit to use them) and it's a real pain to pick good outcomes - I hate breaks for national team games, the whole system breaks down and the forecasting too.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: KTChampions on October 08, 2024, 03:53:16 PM

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

I know that but the the point of the experiment is betting on odds lower than 1.5 so if I put a bet now on Bayern at 1.45 and it turns out by the 16th is 1.55 what am I going to do, scratch it? Same for ignoring now a bet of 1.55 that would turn out to be 1.50 by next Friday, it would be a pain in the ass to deal with changing odds as I would need to double check every time. I could go for SP bets but that would mean betting on everything and then eliminating the ones over, not that it would be that much work but it's no fun in it and it's prone to way too many mistakes!

Anyhow, this focuses only on the bet, not on what that bet is, devoid of all feelings, bet on everything that is under 1.5!

Quote from: nelson4lov on October 08, 2024, 05:57:14 PM

Don't beat yourself up too much. I got rekt too by that Bayern draw. I have a very simple bias for picking Bayern that day and that's the fact that since:

I don't care too much, I'm more annoyed because as it runs out the experiment would have been better without bets under 1.25, imagine that, but no way in hell I'm going to change it and redo all the math and the bets. As for losses, those are minimal, it's 4$ for $100!

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues (Read 1585 times)