Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

Dewi Aries

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Quote from: Samlucky O on September 22, 2024, 11:15:12 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 02:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 11:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Yes, that is the best way or a more reasonable way to be able to make real profits in the gambling industry, namely by building your own casino and you become the dealer who manages all the systems in the games provided. But yes, I also understand what you mean by saying is always much easier than doing, but it is still possible for rich people who have a lot of money. Another thing is if you really want to continue to advance as a gambler and not become a dealer for some reason, then make sure that you have good skills in taking care of yourself and your finances, and also make sure that your expectations always look realistic in any type of game.

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Quote from: stompix on September 22, 2024, 11:55:00 AM

Quote from: viljy on September 22, 2024, 02:59:53 AM

So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose. The more bets there are, the greater the chance of surprises, even if the odds correspond to an almost risk-free bet.
Why can't a bet on a draw be a win? I sometimes placed a lot of bets only on draws. I lost most of the bets. But in the end, I still found myself in profit. I admit that it could just be luck.

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Quote from: Wakate on September 21, 2024, 02:43:47 PM

Sometimes low odds matches can not save of from winning big in gambling. I have tried it many times and I was disappointed to know that many of the matches ended in big regrets.

Yup, not just you but for sure most of gamblers experienced the same, thinking that betting with low odd either parlay or single will give them decent chance of winning, but upset always present when you are in gambling right?

Quote

We need to choose matches based on our findings and what we think about the match. Other people's opinion can really help us a lot but not everytime. One just have to forecast games and make the bets waiting for the outcome to click if we are that fortunate.

It helps but not an assurance for sure, using it as basis to anaylze the game and see if you've got the same findings but betting blindly and follow them directly that's something that really tough if you loseyour parlay.

Quote

Sometimes cashing out before the game ends whether in winning or loses can also help sometime when we are not that certain about the outcome of the match especially when it's the last match of the game. This can be a tough decision but I have benefited many times from this.

If you got that chance and you manage to cashout, that's a sure thing that you've got something after your bet.

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Quote from: Samlucky O on September 22, 2024, 11:15:12 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 02:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 11:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

I totally agree there.
If it were that easy, everybody would try to do it, but you need lots, and I mean lots of connections, experts, knowledge, expertise yourself, and much, much more.
Though, it would be a good goal to achieve some day Grin

stompix

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Quote from: stompix on September 18, 2024, 09:37:58 AM

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

I knew it, and yes again I picked an extra game from the next round which will be discarded

Quote from: viljy on September 22, 2024, 02:59:53 AM

So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

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Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 02:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 11:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Charles-Tim

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Quote from: DaNNy001 on September 21, 2024, 05:20:16 PM

Betting on low odds are the worst and I hate them because they are the ones that have caused more damage in the past, people think if they accumulate games with odds less than 1.20 it gives them a hundred percent chance of winning, I don't bet below 3 odds, I'm not saying it's a wrong idea if you do it's just my preference and experience with the system. Understanding that playing single games of 2 to 3 odds has a higher chance of winning would make you have a different approach with this, a lot of gamblers might not agree with this system

Are you referring to casino games when you mentioned that you can not bet on less than 3 odds? I have gone for 3 odds always on casinos but that is different on sport betting sites. I also think you are not referring to parley. I prefer to go for 1.25 odds to 2 odds if it is football betting. I have found go 3 odds to be very risky and the chance to win such bet is very low.

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I have noticed and observed on this common act from some gamblers, if they are playing a bet with small ods, they are going to make numerous games selections because they know that they are nearly close to the accuracy of those games selections with smaller ods, while those that do go for big ods will only make a fewer selection because they know the chances of wining the bet in smaller and couldn't afford increasing on the numbers of games, because the more they do do, the lesser their winning chances as well, so most of them will prefer between a one to four games selections because of the ods.

viljy

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Quote from: viljy on September 19, 2024, 05:38:00 AM

It's funny, right now I'm conducting the same experiment as TS, but with fewer bets, for only three matches.

Well, the experiment with the "reliable bets" strategy gave the expected result - all three bets won. Specifically, these were betting on the matches: Real Madrid vs. Espanyol, Liverpool vs. Bournemouth, Werder Bremen vs. Bayern Munich. So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 06:11:13 AM

It all started from this thread with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!

6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0 7.98

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

Betting on low odds are the worst and I hate them because they are the ones that have caused more damage in the past, people think if they accumulate games with odds less than 1.20 it gives them a hundred percent chance of winning, I don't bet below 3 odds, I'm not saying it's a wrong idea if you do it's just my preference and experience with the system. Understanding that playing single games of 2 to 3 odds has a higher chance of winning would make you have a different approach with this, a lot of gamblers might not agree with this system

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Quote from: Fredomago on September 21, 2024, 02:05:31 PM

Quote from: Victorybit1 on September 19, 2024, 05:10:48 PM

Quote from: shield132 on August 30, 2024, 09:55:45 AM

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose

You are right, most of the time it's a trap though there are gamblers who understand the risk and willing to take it as they trust there guts in finding those value bets and bet on it as parlay, one mistake from your selections then everything will be messed up, and it's just seems so easy to pick low odds selections but once upset take place surely your bet will lose.

Sometimes low odds matches can not save of from winning big in gambling. I have tried it many times and I was disappointed to know that many of the matches ended in big regrets. We need to choose matches based on our findings and what we think about the match. Other people's opinion can really help us a lot but not everytime. One just have to forecast games and make the bets waiting for the outcome to click if we are that fortunate. Sometimes cashing out before the game ends whether in winning or loses can also help sometime when we are not that certain about the outcome of the match especially when it's the last match of the game. This can be a tough decision but I have benefited many times from this.

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Quote from: Victorybit1 on September 19, 2024, 05:10:48 PM

Quote from: shield132 on August 30, 2024, 09:55:45 AM

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose

You are right, most of the time it's a trap though there are gamblers who understand the risk and willing to take it as they trust there guts in finding those value bets and bet on it as parlay, one mistake from your selections then everything will be messed up, and it's just seems so easy to pick low odds selections but once upset take place surely your bet will lose.

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 18, 2024, 03:08:41 PM

Quote from: stompix on September 17, 2024, 08:50:55 AM

~

Ok, i got it. But I don't believe that it works, maybe there are some verified statistics on this matter? This is hard to believe, as it would mean that bookmakers systematically make mistakes when choosing odds (while I have seen studies showing that they guess outcomes with an accuracy of 1%), and when evaluating the favorite.

Bookies are still humans, they don't pose a magic wand that would enable them to make all the odds in their favor, plus no matter what the bookies want if bets come flowing against their predictions they have nothing to do but change them or risk losing a ton, and they don't take gambles, they are doing risk hedging with those.
It's nearly impossible mathematically for all teams to lose on a single $1 on them, this will take more luck than getting all matches' exact score, at one point one team will do better than the odds,and gain, bookie shave no answer if teams like Madrid or Bayer keep winning.

Madrid won 29 games, lost 1 draw 8, they had an average 1.40 on betting, enough to make them profitable, 1:28 would have been enough.
Same for Bayer, they didn't lose a single match won 28 draw 6, a at 1.20 odds it would have been a gain.
All the data is on oddsportal, you can check all the odds they had prior to games there.

Quote from: KTChampions on September 18, 2024, 03:08:41 PM

In any case, I am following this topic with interest.

Well it is different since I'm following odds, not teams so I doubt it will be positive, it's also bit late but I will think of tracking top teams in another topic also I have all the data from oddsportal anyhow.

That aside, Bayern and Liverpool are demolishing their adversary right now so at least two matches out of 8 to date.

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Quote from: shield132 on August 30, 2024, 09:55:45 AM

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose

viljy

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It's funny, right now I'm conducting the same experiment as TS, but with fewer bets, for only three matches. Before, I used the reverse strategy: a lot of small bets on weak teams or a draw. So, the previous strategy allows you to at least stay with your own, despite the fact that most bets are unsuccessful, there are very large winnings, which actually help out. It's kind of weird, though. There are always, or almost always, such unexpected results. Could this be a consequence of match-fixing? It is hardly possible to find out...

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Quote from: Zackz5000 on September 18, 2024, 10:04:34 AM

This is what I do almost at every New beginning of the season i try to select matches with relatively low odd expecially when the team is at home playing an average team with a big odd sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but as time processed I discovered that odd is just a number any team can win a game irrespective of the odd given to them for I have seen severally where team with bigger odd number still come to win the team with a lower odd so it this case I don't think there is any need trying to do some experiment is better to go ahead a play which ever team you are move to play if you win you win if you loss you loss that's how bet works for there is no way you can be winning all the time at same time losing all the time.

I would not advise betting on a small coefficient, because sooner or later the team with a large coefficient will win it, it just takes time. I try to focus on other things, for example, I would rather make fewer bets, but they will be with a thorough analysis. Or, for example, it is better to bet only a few times a year, but to be in the win, because in these matches we were confident. And of course it is better to avoid matches in which we doubt or have a borderline decision. In any case, in order to understand whether we are a winning gyroc or not, many years must pass and a huge number of bets must be made.

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Quote from: Tungbulu on September 18, 2024, 03:35:22 AM

Sometimes even the surest odds could just disappoint you, doesn’t matter how many games you’ve got in your selection, it’s doesn’t increase of reduce your chances cos at the end what you need is luck. I’ve tried several strategies in games and odds selections, just like you said, I tried picking games with 2.5 odds, I actually picked just two games with both 2.5 odds, the first option was for both teams to conceal at 1 goal each, and the other to score 2.5 goals in the whole 90 minutes of the match. Th funniest aspect of this was that, these both teams were the the highest goals scorers in their various leagues, and i staked high on the game with a much assurance that the game would play in my favour but the second game ended in 1:0, this was totally unbelievable but what could I do, I already lost. The experience taught me that regardless of whatever strategy you use, your success still depends on luck.

You are absolutely correct, wining in gambling depends on luck and nothing more, but sometimes due to the fact that we make analysis by spectating the previous performance of the club and making predictions, we set our minds in thinking we are also factors in making it possible for our predictions to result to win or sometimes we take the credit of making the right selection. Well ots all luck and we know that, but for fun sake, we might want to believe its in our making. Today I made a game selection of which individual odds are below 1.6 odds yet the outcome was loss due to Manchester City draw with inter i predicted city to win the game but it ended up nill goals. However that was the only odd selection whereas others did go the towards my prediction. And that explains that luck is still the major determinant of one's success in gambling.

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Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 07:24:53 AM

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter.

A person who gambles with a proper plan for managing the risks that is involved in gambling will inadvertently have a messed emotion. If you as a gambler can set realistic expectations in the amount of risk that you know you can handle then you are more than half way through with handling your emotions.

There is hardly anyone that can get rich quick through gambling. There is hardly anyone that can hit the jackpot on their first game. There is also hardly anyone who can double their money in order to meet a financial or personal need through gambling. Anyone who thinks otherwise is setting themselves up for an emotional rollercoaster.

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Quote from: stompix on September 18, 2024, 09:37:58 AM

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

8 matches, very low odds, possible returns for a single bet of just 10.76
Multiplier is also disappointing, for 8 matches just x10.50.
Really low odds in some of those might want you to throw them from the section, especially with Liverpool being there again.
Anyhow, here they are:

Quote from: Fortify on September 17, 2024, 04:24:59 PM

Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.

I know that don't think that this is an experiment to prove the tactic would succeed, I've said it from the start it's more like a warning against things you take for granted to happen just because of those abysmal odds so I'm fully aware of it.

But, there is fun also in doing it!

There is only one problem when choosing well known teams and that is rarely so many teams win in a single parlay, these games can hit you really hard if you happen to put a good stake to the parlay and the parlay to lose. I know for fun it can be a nice experiment as I can follow these games or some of them for this upcoming weekend and try a good 1 dollar stake in IDR which is near 16.000 IDR and can give you good money to enjoy yourself and keep your self entertaining in betting other parlays with the money you can win.

A well done to you in searching the games with low odds and parlaying them together as most time personally I keep losing because I am not patient enough to wait and do research so I just go with whatever live and upcoming event is thrown at me by the casinos where I play.

KTChampions

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Quote from: stompix on September 17, 2024, 08:50:55 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 16, 2024, 12:26:16 PM

Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?

The strategy is going with your team no matter the odds, of course with the weaker team you will fail and with the middle ones you might have a nasty surprise, but top teams have been on the edge of being profitable for years. The biggest factor thing is that this constant betting works in your favor if the teams constantly win the bets go slightly down but if they start losing your bets suddenly have higher value, you still lose -1 but you gain more, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern are two teams that have been constantly in the green for the last two seasons, of course, the results from this start being biased once you use multiple teams in a league because, well obviously!
~

Ok, i got it. But I don't believe that it works, maybe there are some verified statistics on this matter? This is hard to believe, as it would mean that bookmakers systematically make mistakes when choosing odds (while I have seen studies showing that they guess outcomes with an accuracy of 1%), and when evaluating the favorite. Usually, the majority of the margin is taken from the favorite's odds, but if this strategy works, it turns out that this is exactly where (where the largest cash flow flows) they are wrong.

In any case, I am following this topic with interest.

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues (Read 1077 times)