Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 6.

stompix

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So the first week is over:

Arsenal - Brighton 1-1 -1
Bayern - Freiburg 2-0 +1.21
Napoli - Parma 2-1 +1.5
Barcelona - Valladolid -7-0 Shocked

+1.26
Real - Betis 2-0 +1.30

Betting 5 units, return 5.27, profits 0.27
Multiplier is a loss, -1

Long way to go till next week but the next round in the premier league will be insane, close to 5 matches qualifying for this, Manchester, Liverpool, Brighton, Crystal and Aston Villa are close to 1.5

Counting up to 11 possible matches under 1.5 for the leagues!

stompix

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Arsenal - Brighton 1-1 -1
Bayern - Freiburg - to be played
Napoli - Parma 2-1 +1.5
Barcelona - Valladolid -7-0 Shocked

+1.26
Real - Betis to be played

I will remove the Dortmund match from this week's play because d'oh I didn't realize I put the bet on the r3 match, I will add it to the next one!

So, the multiplier for week 1 is a loss so -1
Individual games are -0.24 with 3 out of 5

If the two games go well it will be 5% return if they go wrong, well, that's it!

Quote from: alani123 on August 30, 2024, 05:59:31 PM

Speaking from experience I have to say that when you make these betting slips your goal should never be to win every time.

I took this as an experiment, my take is actually to disprove of low odds being safe even on longer runs so I I'm not expecting to win a thing, more like I am trying to prove that so-called 'safe" bets are not safe at all.

Funny enough I've tried the same experiments during the weekend with horse racing:

11/12 wins, exactly when I was trying to say that betting on the favorite is bad, but it was a festival day when horses you know almost all about them run! Anyhow, at under 6/4 odds even 11 wins seems like too much effort for to little, and I would never risk putting tens on such things.

alani123

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Speaking from experience I have to say that when you make these betting slips your goal should never be to win every time. You are in it for the long game and for example of your target is a multiplier of 8x every time, then you must win more than 1/8th of your betting slips. So if you were to bet x amount per day, when in a day you make such bets you can divide your bets in multiple bet slips. You could even include one match on different combinations so long as you hit the desired multiplier.

Russlenat

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Quote from: bering on August 30, 2024, 03:11:49 PM

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

We can only think it’s safe based on our personal perception, but in general, there’s no such thing as safety in gambling. OP’s experiment is still unproven and needs more bets to determine if it’s a working method or not. However, I suspect this method might still lose in the long run, but let’s give it a try. Maybe I’m wrong, and if that turns out to be the case, I wouldn’t hesitate to follow what OP is doing.

bering

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I have done using this method plenty and sometimes it works well but quite often too i lost my bets and what i am done is similar to you that make double bets with stick to the big teams and the odds probably will be increases because you were combine several matches into your bets but automatically the risk to lost your bets also increases because if there is one team who lost or draw then your bets will be failed and last time i did this method on Europa League few days ago but i was failed

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

Zigabel

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Quote from: Maslate on August 30, 2024, 07:02:33 AM

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

This makes true of the fact that no strategy is completely certain in gambling, some strategy works sometimes and the other time it doesn't hence it's not any certain at any point that a particular game turns out the way we have anticipated and expected of it because ordinarily gambling is mostly about predictions and probability.

Whenever a certain strategy is working well, it's usually best to make the best of it and whenever it's failing make sure to exit using such synergy quick enough so you don't get stucked already.

Charles-Tim

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Quote from: YOSHIE on August 30, 2024, 07:07:39 AM

Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).

This is not an easy pick at all. I guess that Real Madrid could win this match. It is an home match for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has only played just one home match this season with Real Valladolid and it won the match with 3 goals. Real Bestie drew away match with Deportivo Alaves but this is not Real Madrid.

ajiz138

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A good betting odds experiment I would like to know the outcome of. Wink

Honestly, in parlay betting it is a bit more difficult even though we choose the favorite team especially more sometimes there is a surprise where the favorite team does not win, I am not brave enough for more than 5 matches to parlay.

Except for single bets, this is still possible for me to do actually every week, often choosing odds of 1.5 with a single bet of 5 different matches, the results are 3 wins 2 losses, not all of them will lose.

Jaycoinz

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Quote from: YOSHIE on August 30, 2024, 07:07:39 AM

Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

@stompix, Good experiment.
I want to also take part in those six games, I like the challenge, I want to see what happens with low odds, Honestly, there are some choices you make that have a good chance, but the game is still a game, on the field will determine everything.

I will post my predictions, shortly after I finish the ritual.

Whether we are of the same mind for this bet or otherwise, give me a few hours.

My bet is for six games.

- Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Valla dollid= result (Barcelona).
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913= result (Parma Calcio).
- FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg = result (Bayern Munich).
- Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Heidenheim= result (Heidenheim).
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC= result (Arsenal).

Hmm, this is really an interesting pick my friend and I think I like it a lot although am not sure for the Dortmund game but I think I see the reason why, their opponent is actually doing very well and they seem to play a very powerful football even with their game yesterday and for the Napoli game well I couldn't agree more just that I feel its likely going to be a draw atleast because I know Napoli are in very deep shit and their form is absolutely down and I really don't expect them to win but hey it's football who can be sure of anything?

Adbitco

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Quote from: _act_ on August 30, 2024, 08:37:13 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 08:22:38 AM

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

Over 0.5 is not a good odd. It can be 1.01 to 1.05 odds which is very small. But I guess what you mean is over 0.5 in first half or over 0.5 in second half. Over 0.5 second half has almost the same odd as over 1.5 fulltime, but the odd for over 0.5 first half is slightly higher than both.

Over 0.5 is betting options and the odd is around 1.01 to 1.10 odds, while over 1.5 is about 1.20-1.30 odd. Most of the time over 0.5 HT is above 1.5 odds to 1.80 odds, while Over 1 is almost 2.5 odds where as over in FT the odds aren't the same. The FH usually have lot of higher odds this depends on the gambling site you are using as there odds aren't the same it differs from every casinos.

noormcs5

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Quote from: Maslate on August 30, 2024, 07:02:33 AM

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

On which sports do you bet ? I mostly follow cricket and it is hard to get over 2.0 odds bets. There are many bets under 2 like 1.4, 1.7 etc and they are good to take them and win.
When you take the bet over two, don't you think that the chances of winning decreases considerably as the bookies will not give you the higher odds on the favourite teams ? And betting on weak teams may increase your odds but will decrease you chances of winning.

shield132

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My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Jawhead999

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Although you always bet the favorite, but all of them aren't safe especially those three matches:

Real Madrid draw 2 from 3 match.
Napoli was lose against mediocre team.
Both Arsenal and Brighton are in shape.

Make sure you don't bet in Chelsea and Manchester United match or you will regret. Grin

But, let's see how it goes, maybe luck will be on your side in this week. Cheesy

_act_

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Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 08:22:38 AM

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

Over 0.5 is not a good odd. It can be 1.01 to 1.05 odds which is very small. But I guess what you mean is over 0.5 in first half or over 0.5 in second half. Over 0.5 second half has almost the same odd as over 1.5 fulltime, but the odd for over 0.5 first half is slightly higher than both.

Adbitco

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Quote from: _act_ on August 30, 2024, 08:16:19 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 07:55:19 AM

For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you Undecided

.

I do not think going for 2 or 3 matches as multiplier is bad. I have used it very well and the result is good. But the problem that most people have is that they may not go for the right matches. But going for more than 2 or 3 matches is very risky. I have tried 5 several times before and I lost the bet than going for 2 or 3 matches. I mostly go for just 2 matches. I also noticed that when I bet less often, I win more than when I bet often.

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

_act_

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Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 07:55:19 AM

For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you Undecided

.

I do not think going for 2 or 3 matches as multiplier is bad. I have used it very well and the result is good. But the problem that most people have is that they may not go for the right matches. But going for more than 2 or 3 matches is very risky. I have tried 5 several times before and I lost the bet than going for 2 or 3 matches. I mostly go for just 2 matches. I also noticed that when I bet less often, I win more than when I bet often.

Adbitco

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:52:27 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 05:39:23 AM

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5"

It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals Wink

What a moment are you talking about single matches?
If yes then your choice of selection is good though. For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you Undecided

.

Makus

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:52:27 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 05:39:23 AM

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5"

It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals Wink

I get you, going for an under 1.5 win selection is a good idea because, odds can sometimes act as a good example of the win probability if nothing else goes wrong during the game. However the only problem I have with the strategy is numbers of selected game. In making my 1x2 win selection I prefer going for just 2 games that would result to a 2.0 odd or a maximum of 4 game selection. The longer the games the more it becomes difficult to win, but on a general note this strategy would work best especially the selection from different leagues which makes it more fun.

YOSHIE

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

@stompix, Good experiment.
I want to also take part in those six games, I like the challenge, I want to see what happens with low odds, Honestly, there are some choices you make that have a good chance, but the game is still a game, on the field will determine everything.

I will post my predictions, shortly after I finish the ritual.

Whether we are of the same mind for this bet or otherwise, give me a few hours.

My bet is for six games.

- Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Valla dollid= result (Barcelona).
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913= result (Parma Calcio).
- FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg = result (Bayern Munich).
- Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Heidenheim= result (Heidenheim).
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC= result (Arsenal).

Porfirii

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Thank you for conducting the experiment and being willing to share the results with us stompix.

Answering to your question (I'm a bit pessimistic when it comes to gambling) I think that it will be "an easy money pit that grows with each week played" as you said. Not flawed to the max to lead you to a -100, but not green either.

I hope I am wrong and you make some profits, but if this will be a long betting experiment, I think that the odds are staked against you.

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 6. (Read 1585 times)