Topic: Bitcoin trading strategy - page 9. (Read 13734 times)

I was simulatiing some bot trading, but even that didn't go fully according to maths.Even if my bot tries to sell some coins, the pure fact of selling creates a downwards shift in prices.

@ News' influence on BTC price: What I see is that it has a temporary effect  Slight variation because of people thinking what it will bring, then it goes up/down (back) where it (roughly) was. Of course major news have different impact.

When the news of Microsoft accepts BTC was released, I remembered the price shoot directly like +20$ or so and then goes back after just a few hours because people realized that they are accepting it not for their major product .
For now the price is being controlled by whale / group of whale, that is a why a good news regarding BTC isnt helping to move the price at all

I reposted this chart from user Benjig from another thread, basically this is a good chart if you want to see if a news move the price




Golden rule of trading will be that someone need to lose for another person to get a profit from trading. Basically, none will be telling when is the right time to either buy or sell, mostly people will only tell the opposite of what they do. Whenever someone is telling to buy, basically he is putting a sell order and waiting for it to be taken. That indeed hyping is a common way now to "help" with trading though



True, that is why most people are using bot to ease their trading. Doing trade manually will only get yourself burnt especially if you are doing it in a high volume market where the margin of buy and sell are almost none and not to mention that human's speed is limited, price may shoot up immediately without you knowing , i.e few weeks back someone mistyped a zero on btc-e and executed a 10k BTC buy, shooting the price straightforward.
Another options will be trading in a non fee exchanger , most chinnese exchanger applied a zero fee market though.

I think that it is often not the actual effect (what is being hyped) that causes a change in price, but the hype itself. Of course, certain effects can influence bitcoin in one way or the other, but this is not always the case. For example, people were expecting that wider scale adoption of bitcoins will lead to higher prices. Even though some larger companies do accept BTC as payment, we didn't see the price shoot up to crazy highs, it's just floating around sort of the same levels, +/- 50$.



Exactly what I meant. The BTC-e trollbox is the perfect example, although I have seen it elsewhere too. One wants to sell his coins, so of course everyone has to buy, because the price will skyrocket. And at this point I am not sure who could be trusted as a source of information. Principally, anyone could be giving you false advices intentionally so that he/she has monetary benefits.


When I say tried strategies, I mean running simulated trading, aka tests. But the fact is, based on maths and algorithms such as EMA and more advanced, one should be able to follow the trend and always make profit. In theory. However, in practice, selling is not instantaneous and the prices change so quickly that even a small delay can throw calculations of balance. Plus, of course, there is a trading fee as well that slashes the already small profits. More importantly, I could make a profit if I sold at e.g. 265$, however the sole fact that I am selling reduces the prices and my margin is gone.

True , but hype is one of the trigger that could either increase or decrease the price of it, following the hype and execute your order on the right time could be a blessing if you are a daily trader. Basically good news regarding BTC is a good hype for the price to increase , though we dont see any price moving up lately

Another example would be the news of KNCminer coins finally moving, I see the price deceasing after the news is leak . Hype ? Perhaps or people having the fear that the price might get alot more lower if they dump the coins


Another way of hyping, this can be seen alot on btc-e trollbox. Basically that exchanger has a lot of trolls that will keep on typing buy or sell. They are doing it for their own purposes, getting someone that has no knowledge about whats going on to fullfill their order in the market


Indeed no, except the strategy of manipulating the market I guess. Strategies basically help you in reducing your chance to lose though


Dont, follow the trend unless you are whale that you cant got against the trend or either goes out of the box.

Its only challenge in your life and if you lose hope and just give up you won't make your goal success.

That's cold comfort and a weak solace. There are a myriad ways to lose money and only a few to gain in trading. If your losses (as well as winnings) are due to randomness of the markets (which would be the majority of cases), you get nothing, just lose money...

But you may finally learn how to limit your losses next time

i think its come with times every day you will get more experiance  Whatever you lose is not a loss is another exeprience in your life

as you said there any real strategy behind trading(this is waht i think at least, i could be wrong i'm not a pro trader), is just a opinable view based on the various chart, or on the whole story of that asset/others assets, some times is just a matter of insight, other is just pure luck...

many strategies only work because they are reinforced by the fact, that many adopt it, not because they are exactly good, if everyone agree on doing the same thing, it will be more easy to obtain the hoped goal

this is why you see group of whales, moving, besides the manipulation, they can reduce the luck involved when they work on the same strategy, instead of working alone, with the possibility of following different paths

Isn't trading usually based on following the trend and not on hype speculations? I wouldn't say that just because BTC drops below 200$ it will drop to 150 where you can buy in. Then again, based on what indicators you follow or use, it may be good to sell/buy at that point. I don't know. I have personally found that these speculations work about 50% of the time. Someone says something, if he/she was right then comes the "I told you so", otherwise silence. Also, lot of people try to influence the market with their suggestions, (in their favour) so you have to listen selectively, which can be hard.

If there was a golden strategy, a lot of people would be rich by now. Fact is, strategies exist and work in certain situations. However there are a range of difficulties that separate theory and practice. I suggest going to http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school and making some long research there. I'm doing the same currently and testing a few trading techniques.

I have tried following a strategy out of the box, but it didn't work. Even though it should be working, based on maths etc. There is a lot of experimenting involved.

just follow the wave if this recent news would bring bitcoin to sub 200, then dump and buy again at 150-200

Actually the price and the fork talk will have nothing to do with "trading". All trader need is a right time to execute a buy and sell and a margin where there got some profit from the buy and sell difference. Thus being said, Even if the price drop down by 50 %, as long as there are a margin , trader can execute their trading activity and gain profit from it although it will be slightly lower than usual though

Right now with all this fork talk I wouldn't risk getting in. The price has gone from 240 territory to 230 lows. We'll see to what extent does all of this have a true impact on the price. I would say we are going to be on a low price until all of that gets settled and we can talk Bitcoin has something solid that may not get jeopardized by block size limit every X years (we cant be forking periodically).

I dont know that you are implying on altcoin trading strategy because this thread is about BTC trading stategy . Altcoin trading strategy is mostly about hype so that is correct from your end that news will be the indicator for the price. In altcoin, mostly you need to do is to pick newly created altcoin and wait for the hype, rinse and repeat the pattern.

P.S : lets not derail this discussion further and stick with BTC trading strategy instead 


No problem, I do apppreciate your thoughts as I am sharing my own as well

I am trading alts, where news still matters much, I see posted in the wrong thread, sorry.
However, I am getting good results, so I know what I do works.
I don't like indicators(moving average for example), when you see a certain trend there is no guarantee that that line is going to continue.
You need figure out what drives this trend, will this drive continue or cease to exist?*
If it is the latter or if you don't know sell and pick a new altcoin.
(Also do your reading before investing)
I am holding for months, basically because I don't like the daily variance, it are mostly just unpredictable movements or noise.

*A positive signal could be the release of a new/unique feature for example.

Everyone seems to have their own take on trading, no means to bash your opinion or anything, just stating my own.

Indicators is basically to help you in executing your trades, so actually it is best to have some knowledge about it


This isnt like 2012-2013 anymore where news will have a significant effect to the price. Basically good news only bring in the hype, which means that you will need to execute a buy as fast as possible because after the hype, price usually goes back to where it was before


As per I have stated, the long term strategy which involve waiting for X period of time is not a good strategy for trading. Logically, holding things for X period of time is not considered as trading though, it is more like investment

P.S : just my personal thoughts on this


It is not indeed but atleast it helps you in executing your trade. Knowing when will the lowest and highest point throughout the day is actually a good thing since it basically helps you where to start buying and to sell it for X percentage of profit

Don't trust indicators or any technical guru shit.
Follow the news. Decide at each major event whether or not you wish to continue to hold or sell out.
It is a game of patience, expect to wait for months, maybe years.
And remember, signals are not clearcut, it is kind of subjective.
It takes about a few years to become a good trader, so hang in there 

They just not have enough patient to wait so that they lost a bitcoin. If they want to earn a profit to their coins they must wait until they got the right price to sell.

Actually the information/data is exist there. You can check it HERE. Along with some tools to draw some lines that will help you in analyzing it and also determine the lowest point for the 24 hour. Actually what matter is the difference between buy and sell. All you will need is to sell higher than what your executed buy is minus the trading fee (if there is any).
Most people thought that this only gain them a small profit thus waiting for a higher price which actually resulted in the price got lower and people got some lost

Yeah thats why we need to have a information about or the history of the price of bitcoins and study when its price is low or high.

You can, that is why graphs exist. It is to help you to predict where the direction goes, as well as the trend of it. Basically it needs some skills in reading graphs though


AFAIK you cant change the trend/pattern unless you are a whale that is able to manipulate the market, if you are not then you cant change it and you (most of us) will always be trading in a manipulated market. Basically 500 BTC will be enough to move a small portion of the trend


Indeed true, things could go south no matter how good you are in reading graphs and predicting the direction of the market. Once whale decided to manipulate the market, then nothing could stop the market from being manipulated (unless another whale decided to be the opposition though)