There's too many variables. I would think that anyone mining is doing so under the hope that Bitcoin not only continues existing, but increases in price along the way.
Running through the numbers at Bitcoinx's calculator (
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/)
Yes, if BTC/USD stays around $100, then even at 10x todays difficulty (370 million rather than 37 million), a Jalapeno will generate $55 per month. But difficulty is not that high yet, so they're in much better positions today. For instance, say next difficulty jump is to 55 million. A Jalapeno will earn $420 in a month.
Hashfast has renderings of their products on their website, and a disclaimer that when they get to actual silicon, there could be a huge variance in expected performance and power consumption. But, yes, you can pre-order
Bitfury? They list a $90,000 miner that does 110 GH/s. Yeah, I'm sure a lot of people are lining up for that one... supposing that someone does pony up the money for it though... if you think the ROI for a $279 Jalapeno is going to be difficulty to achieve, consider that to achieve similar performance to that monstrosity, you would need 20 Jalapenos for $279 appiece. So... $5,580 from BFL versus $90,000 from Bitfury?!?
VMC? Pre-order now. They're talking to a Major Semiconductor Company about actually making their chips, which may or may not perform as they hope.
Yes, they're pushing into the next generation, one of the three is selling something almost at the price level of GPU's, while the other two involve the same leap of faith to be made here as others did for BFL. Maybe their launches will go off without a hitch. Probably, in fact. BFL's low price points, while great for the community (the ones that could get them, at least) meant that they took in TONS of orders. So VMC and Bitfury might have less difficulty fulfilling because they've priced their gear at a level that insures the volume of their sales will be much lower than Butterfly or ASICMiner.
End of the story is that BFL's products still have legs under them. And all the products that are supposed to relegate them to the dustbin seem to be in existance only on paper, if that.
At the end of the day, people who ordered butterfly's products early and receive them in the next few months will do fine. But people who ordered later in the process (April, May, June, July 2013), at current prices, likely never would have broken even, simply because of all the orders ahead of them would already be online.
Sorry for the ramble.
one things sure if the price makes any movements up or down, everyones projections go out the window.