I am so, so, so, so glad I cancelled my order.
I ordered in April of 13.
Difficulty was 7M.
I think I figured it out to be 10 days to return original investment.
3 Months later
Difficulty is 37M.
It still wouldn't have shipped.
ROI is now over 30 days.
AND the main reason for that difficulty rise? All the units they've been shipping. I think the real issue is that everyone underestimates exactly how many miners were actually ordered. I don't see any other likely source of all that hashing power.
BFL started shipping in June, and since then the difficulty rate and estimated hashing power of the network has grown like it never has before...
Surely you jest sir. Between directly mining and shipped blades ASICMiner is surely responsible for the largest portion of that increase. Avalon hasn't been exactly twiddling their thumbs either as their batch 3 is currently in mass shipping.
So, network hashrate in June was 14 TH around when they started shipping. It's now around 30 TH.
Lets say that was from USB Block Eruptors? 16 TH of block eruptors would be nearly 50,000 of them. I haven't heard of that many being shipped
Avalon Batch 3 went out, i heard around July 19. That's supposedly 37 TH that's in the mail from China right now, so the increase in the network isn't from their units, otherwise we'd have seen a MUCH bigger jump. As for Asicminer, they got things really going in June and the p/s div to the TAT passthroughs (1/100 interest) was 0.00032 and 0.00034). Since then it's been 0.00017, 18, 24, 22 then back to 17. So AM's share of the network appears to be in decline as well.
I know you all love to bash BFL, because they took forever in getting product out the door. But be rational. Where's this power coming from? Look above, that sure looks like a single to me that Photo received. I got my jalapeno, and a whole lot of other ones keep appearing for sale. On July 2, when i got mine, Bitminters hashrate was around 5.2 TH. a couple weeks later when i sold it, they were already up to 9.6 or so. And now they're approaching 12.
I don't see the evidence for anyone else contributing that much power to the network from mid june to mid/late july.
Even friday, they claim many mini-rigs shipped. Given that two of those things alone is 1 TH, that'll probably be another 3-5 TH that appears on the network. Unfortunately, it'll be right around the time that Avalon units start appearing, so that 3-5 might get lost in the 35. But it's an arms race, and even though BFL didn't execute as you, I or even they would have liked, it's far fetched to deny that their products are not appearing in the wild, in greater and greater quantities...