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OK, I respect your opinion, but you do you. Personally, I won't be buying ANY Bitcoin at the current price levels because due to the current macro-economic situation around the world, we could get another opportunity to buy Bitcoin with a big discount again and front-run everyone. Give it until March next year, but it could happen again before that. Probably by the end of this year?
My bids are on $20,000.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I am not even sure if I am just doing me because I am trying to suggest a kind of variance of bitcoin accumulation methods that would depend on the individual situation, and you seem to get so caught up on price predictions, that your technique seems to devolve into gambling if it were applied to everyone.. and yeah you have the luxury of having had been accumulating bitcoin since 2016, so you can wait and still be prepared for Up, while someone without any kind of meaningful BTC accumulation may well need to consider ongoing accumulating of bitcoin rather than waiting around for BTC prices that might not end up happening.. and that results in failure to invest as much as he should have had invested.
I cannot tell anyone when they start to have the luxury of being able to wait, and surely I have not really been employing any kind of strict DCA since early 2017, and maybe I even stopped in early 2016.. It sometimes can be difficult to figure out exactly what any of us might be doing when we employ a variety of techniques and sometimes trying to figure out whether any new money is coming in or not... which surely I ended up feeling that I had to bring some new money in between about June 2022 and January 2023 based on the then BTC price dips that went way beyond expectations... so in that sense, I suppose that I am contradicting my own statements about not employing DCA since 2017, since I brought new money into my budget in between June 2022 and January 2023 and placed that value into buying on dip slots.. so that might not even be characterized as DCA since it was plugged into dip values even though it was new fiat coming in to support the then shortages of fiat in my bitcoin investment portfolio.
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DCA is good for those people who have enough disposable income that comes in regularly every week/month. But for a pleb like me, I need to pick good price levels where I could get the most of my limited capital. Plus read the news. Why would I buy now if I know there's some probability that some macro-economic and geo-political events will crash ALL markets all over the world?
You would buy if you don't have any bitcoin and you would also buy if you have a lot of extra fiat, and there might be other reasons that you figure that you cannot gamble on the BTC price going down so you might choose to spend part of your budget now and save the other part just in case the BTC prices crash.
As long as the Federal Reserve is not turning on the money printer, economies and markets will eventually crash back down again.
So you are saying that there is a chance that markets will not crash? That would be another reason to buy some BTC now rather than waiting.
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Agreed, DCA is best for those who have a regular income and it will be different for those who have no regular income. Because they have to keep track of the market movements which are difficult and challenging. Moreover, it cannot be said that our predictions will always be effective. Generally, financial markets are heavily influenced by systemic economic and geopolitical factors, there may be some potential but it is not easy to predict for everyone. Even the wisest people make mistakes in such assumptions. We know that any monetary policy by the Federal Reserve can affect market movement, but that does not mean that any monetary policy implementation will certainly trigger a market crash. So there is no substitute for DCA to keep secure investment accordance with the time.
There is also nothing wrong with doing both. DCA'ing and saving some dry powder for dips.