Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 503. (Read 107498 times)

It looks like this is the trend in BTC right now, everyone is just waiting for a dip and enter as soon as they feel btc has hit the support level. It'll be a foolish thing to sell at this moment even though many planned to sell when the price was below 20000$.
The accumulation and the rally in the Bitcoin shows that investors want to hold right now and will buy in every dip.

Shower thought, maybe some smart billionaires are waiting for the Taproot upgrade to activate before bidding to purchase Bitcoin. Are they expecting another “drama” for the soft fork? Only 36.61% of signalling blocks, https://taproot.watch/

Might need another fierce community campaign for another UASF?

First of all, fuck crypto.  We are not talking about crypto here.  We are talking about bitcoin.

if you want to talk about bitcoin, then it is way better to be using that term.  If you want to talk about crypto, then way better to take that amorphous bullshit talk to some other thread.

Surely there are guys who might end up doing quite well, even if they are not exactly in agreement regarding whether the BTC price dip is enough or not, and surely some peeps rely on signs that the market is recovering before they start buying.

I personally do not believe in that philosophy, and the theme of this thread (buy every dip) does not seem to be asserting anything like that kind of philosophy either.

Of course, each of us might come to variations in regards to how much dip we might need and also how much value we might ascribe to dollar cost averaging buying - which has also proven to be a very sound approach to buying bitcoin, and not waiting around too long by lame-ass attempts to try to time the market which just ends up causing your to fuck around too long without acquiring a decently sized stash when the BTC price goes shooting upwardly unexpectedly and never comes back down.. which has happened numerous times in bitcoin's history - and I would not rule out such future exponentially UPpity unexpected explosions in BTC price that end up NOT coming back down in any kind of reasonable and meaningful way. 

Take the many screwballs who sold around the previous ATH of $20k, and surely I was suggesting not to be selling much if any coins between $17,500 and $23,5000, and it ends up that even I was way too conservative because in the end, if you think about the matter, retroactively thinking we did not spend too much time in the $17k to sub $40k territory.. and many people were trying to time it and buy back and blah blah blah.. that surely did not end up working out too well.. and we have many examples like that in bitcoin's history.

Another aspect is the need to consider how much of a stake that you might have in bitcoin and whether you are adequately prepared for UPpity.. even if you might have a lot of opportunities to buy at various prices between $40k and $65k, it may still hardly make a difference at what end of the range you end up buying, in the event that you are already inadequately allocated into bitcoin. 

Of course if you have a target to start out your BTC investment to be something like 1% to 10% of your total investment portfolio, and you have already achieved your personal target, then at that point you are surely going to have more flexibility in terms of waiting out further dips, and I personally have put a decent amount of value to just buying on an ongoing basis (aka DCAing), but of course, none of us are forced to rely on one strategy and we can employ a combination of strategies in order to feel that we are adequately preparing ourselves for either price directions... and the three strategies that I find most useful is 1) DCA, 2) buying on dip and 3) lump sum buying, and I believe that any BTC accumulation strategy would be inadequate if it does not at least attempt to consider and employ all three of the strategies.

Personally, I consider the HODL strategy coming into play in a variety of ways, including if there might be cashflow shortages, and frequently it is going to be better to just HODL through such periods rather than something like selling or some other form(s) of gambling with the BTC that you have already acquired (assuming that you have acquired some, at some point).

I am talking to different people lately since I have posted a crypto related on my social media. I did not think that most of friends now are already familiar in crypto but only in trading. They did not knew this forum.
Anyway, I kept telling each of them to buy since the market is red. I know in myself I was only joking but one of them told me no. I will not buy yet. The market seems to be bearish. I come up with one thing about him. Even the market is down, he still needs timing to buy. He will wait the start of bullish market so he will not wait long or hold to gain profit. I am not sure how effective this but I think it is good if you can really read price directions.

Sure it might depend upon how you think, and of course, if we are just talking about bitcoin, then it is a bit easier to make sure to specify that, but if we are talking about other cryptos which surely sometimes might be what we want to do, then it is probably a good idea to specify in some kind of way what we mean or if we are just speaking generally.

For me, I am pretty serious about NOT necessarily suggesting the same strategies in regards to various shitcoins, and there is a kind of timing and strategy element that I consider to make buying that crap a lot more time and information sensitive, and sure there are people who actually believe that they can apply DCA principles to various shitcoins, but the way that I think about DCA, buy on dip and HODL is that you need to have a pretty decently strong conviction regarding the long term (and fundamentals) of the project, and personally, I don't see any shitcoin that would have such characteristic - even though I do understand that there are some other people who actually do arrive at differing assessments than mine, so if they have those convictions regarding whatever there shitcoin, then they could apply these strategies, at least from my perspective (and I don't presume to speak for others in that regard).

My bad, I should bound myself with Bitcoin but ain't happening. I wish I can replace the word crypto by Bitcoin.
Anyway, Thanks for pointing out and there is no doubt my affection towards Bitcoin and how much I connected with the HODL term. 

This thread is about bitcoin, so seems quite likely (at least to me) that the principles do not apply to other coins besides bitcoin, at least when I am talking about it.  Surely, I would not be suggesting the same strategy in regards to any of the shitcoins, whether ethereum, one of the bcashes, doge, or any other shitcoin, ICO, Defi bullshit or NFTs.  Fuck that crap, even if in terms of dollars they have been outperforming the dollar.  We're talking about bitcoin here in terms of buying on dip and HODL (and I keep throwing in DCA too.. which none of that applies to shitcoins, if that is what you mean by "crypto?").

Nice to read someone looking at truth and no matter you're buying buying at this range or not. Threw in a couple of money into BTC anyway. Money grew a couple of days ago and now it's dipping but still no regrets. Gain is gain but for hodlers there will no regret. Just expect to loose money if you are in the crypto space. I'm in the crypto space to make money and, i'm investing in the future not the present.

Hahahahaha

I was actually thinking about you, Wind_FURY (nohomo), and part of the reason was because you were saying the never below $50k quite fervently and even seems to me that you had already been wrong earlier.. but even as the BTC price went up to nearly $65k, surely that helps a lot in terms of making a price cushion, but even about a 23% cushion (the distance between $65k and $50k) is hardly anything in bitcoinlandia.  Yeah, people like to say this time is different and supercycle and blah blah blah, and we know that historically we have had greater than 50% price corrections during a bull market, even though tards like to get stuck on 30% as if it were some kind of maximum BTC price correction, and yeah, there is a lot of hype in bitcoinlandia, and yeah there are BIG players and institutions that want to buy every dip blah blah blah, but those BIG players and institutions are not going to be strong enough to fight the trend - even if the trend might be merely temporary - but when such negative trend is happening, it is going to feel like it is permanent, just like every other correction that may well be emphasizing FUD and nonsense and exaggeration etc etc, and we are also NOT really going to know when the correction is over.

I know that I am a bit of a broken record regarding what to say to family and close friends in respect to what seems to be somewhat differing views and approaches to the matter.

Almost always I am telling people to get the fuck into bitcoin ASAP and figure out some kind of system that is going to work for them in terms of not only figuring out their own financial circumstances (which largely is a problem for a lot of people to even get started in bitcoin because they have pretty shitty financial circumstances), and if they can get past their personal financial circumstances, then they can establish some goals in terms of the stake that they want to achieve in BTC using tools of DCA, buy on dip and HODL.. which largely is to start accumulating BTC ASAP within their own personal circumstances.  I also will assert that they are responsible for their own investment circumstances, so don’t come crying to me if they invest too much or gamble or whatever they do not figure out a level of BTC investment that is good for them.  

So in that regard, I give hardly any shits about the BTC price, even though I will agree with you that there is a bit of a subconscious element in me in regards, to having some reservations in terms of any kind of aggressive BTC investment plan that I may recommend when the BTC price has gone UP a lot in recent times, so in that regard, I would probably emphasize the buying on dip portion rather than either the DCA portion or the front loading possibility… though all of these have to end up being balanced with their personal circumstances, which remains their responsibility to assess (not mine – which I like to frequently point out).




Hahahahaha

You should know that I have hardly any clue, except my sense was that you were prematurely calling bottom levels or support levels that hardly make very much sense if we had a BTC price rise of 5x to 6.5x within 6-8 months (depending upon when such measurements were made).

We also know that BTC can sometimes go into a kind of punishment mode too, in terms of going UP without coming back down, so maybe it there would be a decent amount of Uppity, and even if we ended up getting up to $70k or $80k, there could be some sub $50k corrections that might last a bit of time or just end up being quickie corrections.  

From $70k to $50k would be around a 30% correction, and from $80k to $50k would be around a 38% correction.  

In my thinkenings, neither of those levels of correction (30% to 38% or even greater 50% or more) would be out of the question, even though some peeps want to emphasize baloney theories about this time is different and supercycle and blah blah blah.. that are nearly pure theoretical rather than how relatively “free” markets really tend to work (and I would suggest that bitcoin does seem to fit pretty well into a relatively “free” market categorization.


To me, it seems that you are contradicting yourself when you assert alternative theories (or back up theories), and sure it does not seem to be a problem to attempt to maintain varying scenarios in your head, and then if some certain facts play out, then your future projected scenarios would thereafter reflect those new set of facts (even if you had not expected those new facts to play out).

Maybe part of the problem is to assign too high of probabilities to scenarios that you consider to be quite unlikely, so you go so far as to express what you perceive to be highly unlikely scenarios in terms of absolutes rather than for what they really are which is highly unlikely.

Actually, I am also of the opinion (which kind of agrees with you) that we should not be spending a whole hell of a lot of our brain power in contemplating theories that we estimate to be highly unlikely, but surely when they end up happening or even some other variation that is NOT quite as extreme, at some point we do have to recognize and appreciate that we need to adjust a decent amount of our whole perspective once either the less likely scenario ends up playing out or some lesser version of such scenario that we had calculated as NOT being too likely.


For sure we have been in buying on the dip territory, ever since about $55k (15%) and surely at various points lower than $55k, and yeah some peeps might prefer higher dip thresholds before they recognize that the dip is worth buying, but we should not want our greed to get in the way when there may well not be further dippenings.. and of course, perspectives regarding what is enough of a dip will vary depending on how much BTC that we already have… In any event, so far we have had a 27% dip from about $65k to $47,500, and sure we might get more dip in this cycle, but we might not, too.  

There does seem to be some decent momentum for more down, but we can really never know when the down is over, exactly.

If you hardly have any BTC, then you wait at your own peril.   In other words, when you are attempting to get to your accumulation numbers, there may well be an emphasis to just buy regularly and DCAing on a regular basis, but if you have some BTC already, then you might be employing various levels of buying on dips, and if you have a decent amount of BTC, then you may have the luxury of more aggressive strategies that largely require a BIGGER level of dippening prior towards triggering your buy finger.

Edit:  fixed quotes 

10 DAYS LATER EXACTY! I’m relieved that I NEVER convinced close friends and family to FOMO-buy. But how did you know? I honestly never believed that would happen. This makes $50,000 TRULY the new $10,000. Hahaha.

I shall start looking at the price more closely again. It might be another opportunity to look for good entries.

Mining death spiral claims are hardly even worth responding to.  BTC mining hashrate could get cut by 10.. meaning only have 1/10 the current hashrate and still dwarf any computing power that even comes close to its magnitude.  In other words, reduction in BTC mining hash rate that is anything less than 90% is nearly pure noise in terms of the solidness and security of bitcoin, even though we can still analyze such changes (and many do) in hashing power in order to make other kinds of claims/observations regarding entrants and exits of mining.  One of the amazing recent phenomenons in bitcoin does seem to be that previously unprofitable mining has become considerably profitable so there remains decent incentives for entering into mining or expanding BTC mining capacity.   

Let's see the hashrate cut by 10 before even discussing such baloney mining hashrate in terms of death spiral mumbo jumbo distractions.

I’m merely looking for Silver Linings during the bad moments, my friend. Trolls say Bitcoin will crash, I say it’s an opportunity to buy. Or trolls say “minining death spiral”, I say lower difficulty which gives other prospectors to fill the need.

So, in some sense, you are being misunderstood.. by me?   

In other words, my interpretation of your your "negative" thoughts should be more fairly read as words of inspiration to the "no coiners", "pre-coiners" and the "insufficient quantity of coiners" ? 

“Negative ideas” about Bitcoin’s price and its crash potentialities are not truly negative. They are actually moments to find opportunities. There are many many people who wish they bought under $50,000, $20,000, or $10,000.

I came to BTC in mid 2017. Tough times after that. lost quite some money. not much for others, but enough that it hurt for me. Observed BtcUsd then for some years and nowadays I try to buy the dips, with most of my free fiat. Selling partials at every ATH and buying back at every +10% correction works quite nice, these days. Still, it looks like there is a parabolic selloff ahead, looking at the cycles of BTC. So I do use an "SL", in form of an price alert. So I could always get out at Breakeven if there is a need to. other than that, hodl!

I am still not ruling out sub $50k, and even though I had been frequently criticizing you Wind_FURY, for having some negative ideas about BTC price potentialities, why am I now seeming like the conservative one?


Surely moving from $60k to $80k is $20k, and so sure it seems like a lot of money for many people because the whole price of bitcoin had never exceeded $20k for its whole nearly 12 year history prior to December 2020.. so surely $20k was only a recent price location that was surpassed, but the way that money is coming into bitcoin (and also coins moving off of exchanges), including the fact that BTC prices had been taking considerable pauses along the way UPpity, we should be NOT be ruling out $20k to $40k price moves that will come in a relatively short period of time because when we are considering these matters in terms of percentages - there is not a whole lot of difference between $60k, $80k and $100k - even if we want to get all worked up about it and proclaim there to be BIG differences, and at the same time the BIGGER numbers become more plausible the higher that we go up - including staying at various high price points for a decent amount of time.

Yeah, nothing is guaranteed including breaking above our current ATH of $63,275 (from 3.5 hours ago - as I type this post  - Edit:  well that did not age too well - a few minutes after my post and we are playing around with $63,706 as the new ATH - but I still stick by my original points that there is no guarantee of UPpity), but the momentum surely seems to be ongoingly UPpity, and peeps who believe that we are topping or that this is NOT sustainable, blah blah blah.. are likely going to get reckt.. even though for sure none of the UPpity is even close to guaranteed.

Like I frequently assert (suggest), peeps should be preparing for both UPpity and DOWNity, and at the same time, one of the BIGGEST errors that we continue to witness in bitcoinlandia remains inadequate preparations for UPpity.. which might ONLY require small amounts of value to have some kind of stake in the game and prepare for UPpity.  Just think about the pessimistic folks in 2015 who might have had a $100k investment portfolio, and if they had just taken $1k to invest into bitcoin (that is a petri 1%), they could have acquired around 4 BTC... which surely is not a large investment, but their 1% investment would likely be worth more than the whole remainder of their investments - assuming a static investment.

Surely dollar cost averaging would help too, but bitcoin would still outperform a large number of investments.  So having a more consistent investment strategy would well have made someone with a 6 year investment time horizon quite well, even with a small amount of $20 per week, which is a bit over $1k invested into BTC per year.. would have generated nearly 6 BTC, and would way the hell outperformed gold or equities.

I'm also quite surprised Bitcoin can go up to the new ATH at $ 62K so fast, like you said I am also optimistic that it will be easy for Bitcoin to go to
a price of $ 80k. And if the $ 80k price is successfully achieved, it is not impossible that the $ 100k target that some people have predicted will
come true. But it's too early to mention we don't see a price below $ 60k again this year, I predict Bitcoin may drop below $ 50k. Because the increase
was too fast and drastic, but it won't drop below $ 40k this year.

Bitcoin new ATH, I believe it would need two more GREEN daily closes, then it would be an easy path surging to $80,000, then to 6 digits. We will NEVER see Bitcoin trade below $60,000 again. Go ahead, laugh.

“Bigger players” might be Billionaire-Saudi Princes, and Arab Oil Sheikhs. They’re interest in Bitcoin would also turn on the interest of “bigger players” from London, Tokyo, and New York, simply because it’s where billions in capital is going. Next to follow would be Central Banks, and the State.


A drop of 80% from ATH of $300,000 is $60,000.

I remember "suffering" through the 2014, 2015 and largely 2016 period with frequent contemplations that BTC's liquid trading locations tend to be so damned low that an angle bull whale could surely come into the space and really push the BTC price up without very  much capital.  These kinds of thoughts were discussed on various bitcoin  threads too, so they were not exactly "original ideas."

 I did not have those thoughts as much in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and I do not really recall seeing those kinds of ideas discussed as much in bitcoin threads, either.  Maybe the BTC price being higher had caused some concerns that it would take more capital to push the BTC price up or to keep it up, and maybe the price dip and stagnation period was not as bad in 2018-2020 as it had been in 2014-2016.   So, anyhow, a funny thing is that the fantasies of 2014-2016, seem to actually be currently playing out with some of these angel bull whales that continue to buy, even at seemingly high prices and to publicize that they are buying at high prices, which also causes some reasonable suspicions, like you mentioned about your shower thought Wind_FURY, that they are actually gobbling up coins upon dips.

I suppose in some sense I am a bit surprised that such gobbling up on dips is actually happening because it is like too good to be true, but I am NOT so surprised as NOT to believe it - especially given some of the rhetoric coming out of mouths like Saylor in which he is saying some things that other BIGGER players might NOT want to say, even if they are doing exactly the things that he is saying in terms of trying to make sure that they got a sufficient quantity of stash.. which is likely to get more and more difficult to accomplish.. which does keep BTC prices up.. puts ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures, and likely is going to cause some decent chances that BTC price corrections are going to be less than they had historically been at least at these current prices. 

When we get to $300k or higher (assuming that we get there), there may well be more defectors who are not ready, willing and/or able to hold up the BTC price.  Also, the idea of defectors and defecting is likely on a spectrum rather than being absolute numbers, so the higher the BTC price goes and the quicker that it goes there, the more likely for defectors, and at these lower BTC prices, the defectors may well end up getting reckt because they sold too much BTC too early.