Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 516. (Read 108087 times)

This is very fair point, the longer Bitcoin exists for and continues to trend upwards, the longer investors should be willing to invest for. Sometimes I forget that in late 2013 and early 2014, investors would be betting on asset that's only existed for 4/5 years with only two notable cycles of bull market and subsequent correction. Now in 2020, Bitcoin is 10 years old, therefore it's a lot more realistic to think investors will be investing for 5 years minimum, maybe even 10 years, though based on cycles I'd assume 4/5 more so.

Also in the time when you got into Bitcoin, two bull market cycles isn't exactly a pattern, but more a statistical co-incidence. Now we are more clearly entering a third cycle, this is confirmation of a distinct pattern of Bitcoin's price history. At least from the statistical standpoint of two being co-incidence, three being minimum requirements for a pattern. With this in mind, maybe we won't see such panic selling if price breaks below $16-18K, as was largely the case with the -35% correction in January 2017 from ATH levels.

Either way, the economic factors at the moment could still play a major role: vaccine or no vaccine, US political uncertainty, an over-extended stock market...

Yes.. likely it is fair to elaborate on the point a bit, and your clarification does seem to largely capture what I was intending to communicate in terms of having a longer term investment plan that allows you to ride out various 4 year periods that might have large corrections contained therein.

You likely know my story of getting into bitcoin in late 2013 and starting my buying into bitcoin at that particular top... and I started with at least a 1-2 year investment thesis, and intention to learn about bitcoin while I was dollar cost averaging into it and of course considering that my investment thesis into bitcoin could have a much longer term. 

I think that these days the investment thesis into bitcoin is even stronger than it was in late 2013 - and therefore, it is much more reasonable to come into bitcoin with presumptions of a longer investment timeline of 4 years or more and even 10 years or more would be even better in terms of some people just not being able to lump sum into bitcoin or any other investment.  Many young people tend to take 20, 30, 40 or more years to build their investment portfolio in which they are able to plan to live off in their retirement.. and surely, some of those investment theses do not play out too well.  I feel real lucky with my own plans, but I had already around 25 years of building my investment portfolio before getting into bitcoin, so in that regard, I had already built up a lump sum that I could have put into bitcoin, and largely ended up putting into bitcoin in a dollar cost averaging way over the first year of my investment into BTC (which was mostly put in during the whole year of 2014).

So in reference to being down on my investment, I was largely down on my investment for about 2.5 years, until about mid 2016, and my various first purchases into bitcoin did not become profitable until about 3.25 years afterwards - but I had dollar cost averaged down the costs of that first purchase - so there can be various ways of calculating and considering whether profitable on paper (whether choosing to cash out or just continue to plan for cashing out at later dates - thus paper profits or paper losses).

You say this, but really I think you mean none of us care that much about buying tops. Mainly because we're not throwing all our money into a potential peak, but merely averaging more in right? Those who are currently buying parabolic prices aren't really doing so for the long-term, instead hoping price will continue upwards. If not, they will sell. They always do. This is exactly why we have 25-35% corrections in bull markets, because people buy the tops only to sell the bottoms - to enthusiasts like us.

Most investors stop caring about "what it could be worth in 4 years" once they are already down 25% on their investment.

To me, it's all about your current exposure and investment goals. I always like to say, if you don't own any BTC at all, now is a good time to buy. There should always be a greater sense of urgency for nocoiners.

But if you've already been accumulating for a while, if you're not too far from the number of BTC you eventually want, then you more so have the luxury of waiting for that brutal shakeout that might be around the corner.

Those people that have been through with that price won't have to worry. It's a piece of cake to see bitcoin from $19k drops to $16k. The earlier versions of the dump were much worrying than this.
While others are still looking for a chance to buy under $10k, investors who have seen an opportunity at the price of this recent dump are doing good.

When bitcoin dropped below $4000 and it recovers, that builds the confidence of the people to bitcoin already, so if it dump now, they will still expect it to rise, only the new ones who got FOMO will panic and I believe day by day people will mature and will eventually understand the nature of bitcoin market.

I'm not making fun, I'm merely reminding everyone that many missed the golden opportunity, and don't wait! Below $10,000 might never ever return, BUT buy below 2017's ATH while it's there.

Yes. This correction is stronger honestly and it's not that showing any negative signs that it is going to go further and have more dips soon. This time it's a correction.
Before, when there's a correction the community looks sad and a bit of disappointed. Not those who have been in the community and investing for a very long time but mostly the newbies and mid time holders. But as you see, everyone likes it as it corrects.

sometimes we never know where the dip is, which is why studying patterns and cycles is necessary to see past history.  when you want to buy at the dip price, we can see that the whales are trying to accumulate which can be read on the chart. Usually with MACD indicators, Bollinger Bands, RSI and ADX.
And please note that Consolidation can occur for a long time, in the form of a sideways movement, or in a relatively short time, namely in the form of an inside bar. At least  By looking at the trend in the direction of sentiment that can be monitored from technical indicators we can deciding to buy it.

You seem to be taking my comment the wrong way.  I'm only agreeing with the OP.  Maybe not buy each dip but to constantly cost average.  It protects you from price spikes and drops.  It allows you to "buy the middle".  Nothing wrong with that, and it gets you in the mind set to always be buying stackimg sats even if it's one by one.  Most people trying buying all then selling all pretending to be good traders but only end up trading their stack away.  I encourage cost average buying, and if you are going to sell.  Sell in increments not all at once.

As expected we need a correction sooner or later soon.At last observing a dump yet institutions are here now and are very strong hands. In this way, love it and continue purchasing the entire day. Bullish uptrend is still valid until $15.8k is lost. Right now we just swept the lows. Strong support is a few stacks down, it's only a matter of time. Don't get too hyped as bull trend is still strong.

I would consider the dip up to $30% from $19,5k as the peak, which means around $13,6k as the bottom line if this sell-off trend continues.
However, we don't know how big the drop will be, how if bitcoin hold the support level at $16,3k and won't fall below it? with this thought, I don't want to sell bitcoin or buy it too early, just wait for it to actually drop to $13k or $12k, then buy the dip.

I don't mind lower prices for that reason, its also how we move over a wider amount of time.   Just selling today only would be pretty bullish, its the markets reaction to this initial sell that matters more then this action currently.    We most definitely had a good strong bullish trend up there, that specific channel up has likely been negated now but doesn't mean there isnt a chance price action develops and consolidates into further bullish action.    I need time really to consider, I'm not going to stand in the way currently; more like watching it progress over this and next week but so far its not a big deal.  I always cycle through the time frames because it helps put focused market moves into a wider context and we are only taking back some of the vast gains that occurred recently.
  The market always wants to shake out weak hands, we traded upwards too fast at the end and that was at least 1 count to weaken its longevity and might also be this weaker main market volume over national holidays was another factor.    I still reckon 2021 is a bigger move then this year, if that is still to be the case then its better we pull back rather then over extend.

Your point, here, is a bit ambiguous, Wind_FURY.  Are you making fun of the fence-sitters? 

I surely like to make fun of the fence sitters.. its a kind of internally deranged joy that I get, from time to time.

I wouldn't bet on that as well, BUT if some of our fellow plebs didn't buy/get in, then they should be PRAYING for another golden opportunity of seeing $10,000 or below again. As a Christmas gift?

Historically, we have seen this many many many times in bitcoin price dynamics and even during bull markets in which we might have almost no correction for very extended periods, and normies start to believe (or wrongly conjecture) that the BTC price is ONLY inclined for UPpity.. and then at some point BBBBBAAAAAMMMMM!!!!!

- a 30%, 40% or more correction.... Such correction does not necessarily remove us from the bullmarket or the bull trend, but it sure the fuck shakes out some weak hands.. and it also causes a change in momentum that bearwhales (or just BIG traders) are going to take advantage of such situation to push the BTC price down as far as they can and to keep it down as long as they can...  the amount that they can push it down and the duration of how long they can keep it down is going to vary each time and is quite likely unknowable with any kind of meaningful precision in advance - even though the better traders will be able to get some kind of meaningful gauge of it and be able to profit from it without knowing for sure but attempting to be cautious regarding how they trade it... and maybe even take their profits way before the bottom is reached.. but locks in the profits.

Normies may well not be able to have any kind of clue about how to carry out these kinds of trading matters, so we either buy the dip if we have money or we HODL if we have no money to buy... we do not sell and attempt to figure out the momentum because we are more likely to screw ourselves into having fewer BTC than we started with.. because it can be quite difficult to profit from such situation beyond just buying the dip and HODL.. or DCA at certain points, too.


You are preaching to the choir.  If you did not have any BTC when the price was $19,490, you better start fucking buying or figure out some reasonable way to get some stake into BTC rather than waiting around for a dip that might not happen.  Just because this particular dip ended up happening, does not mean that the dip was inevitable at that particular price point.. blah blah blah.. even though many of us, including yours truly, had pretty decent ideas that a dip was imminent... but we have been thinking that since about $13,880, too... So there is that angle that we cannot really know, and quite a few folks who might well be quite pissed off because they found out about BTC a few months ago (let's say sometime in September) when the BTC price was rising from $10k to $12k but they were waiting for a dip, and the dip did not happen.. so they end up feeling like they are fucked.. yet, they can still figure out plans to DCA, buy on dips and HODL in order to get their stake in bitcoin without trying to time the market with any kind of precision.. but instead to get started rather than waiting around or theorizing too much about how much of a dip that they feel they need before they "go all in" blah blah blah.   



I mostly agree with you on these points, exstasie.

The market just tagged $16.2K. Like I always say, Bitcoin tends to go further in both directions than most people expect.

Good call so far by philipma1957. Let's see if it plays out:


If this resembles past BTC bull market corrections, $11K-$13K could still be on the table. I wouldn't bet on seeing $10K or below again though.

indeed there will be no decline below the price you say and the possibility of it happening is very small. but the decline is only in the range of $ 1K- $ 2K each time there is an increase and then falls back. behavior that has been done several times and continuously, so it is like a short-term investment. with the current price towards the end of the year I predict that bitcoin will go down and do not give the opportunity to increase again with the surprises it often makes. next year is bitcoin to make improvements, we are waiting for the moment.

17.9 and down down down.


So buy the dip!

That seems to be exactly the point that Wind_FURY was making... There is no recommendation in this thread to sell... . buy the dip and HODL does not mean sell.. so you seem to be asking the wrong person in the wrong thread, wheelz1200, when you are asking about the very thing that is being recommended as NOT doing.


No one seems to give too many shits if you are top buying either.. especially if you HODL for a long enough term, 4 years or more than historically your BTC would have always ended up being profitable.

Sure, each of us should be attempting to buy on dips, but like dragon mentioned, sometimes you just buy at whatever price, especially if you have cash coming in and you wait and wait and the BTC price does not dip.

It is way better to be in bitcoin for a very long time so that you really do not have to feel worried about whether you may have bought some of your coins at higher prices than what you could have otherwise bought, and after a while (hopefully) you will have accumulated enough coins in order that intuitively you start to get a kind of feel for what is a "good enough" or BIG enough" dip to acquire a wee bit more.


Yes... you seem to have answered your own question... so if you sell too much too soon, then you are back to figuring out what to do, nearly as if you were a beginner bitcoin accumulator... starting over.