Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 519. (Read 135878 times)

That sounds good because as long as you are comfortable with setting your orders and then becoming somewhat emotionally neutral regarind whether or not they fill, then it seems that you are likely to be on the right track.

I mostly ONLY become upset if I have an order outstanding and the price moves within a few dollars (and sometimes within a few cents of filling it, and then it does not fill.. otherwise, I attempt to set my orders in such ways that I am mostly emotionally neutral about them filling or not..

Otherwise, I stand by my earlier points, that our getting all smart about setting our orders is likely more of a luxury of having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC - and the overwhelming population are either low coiners and/or no coiner and it takes a while to get to a status of having a decently sufficiently sized BTC stash in which you are more happy for the BTC price to go up rather than down, and sure maybe there are a lot of guys (and gal) in this forum who have been stacking sats for a while, but they still may well even consider themselves to still be low coiners, so they likely have to include some form of DCA and not be fucking around too much about figuring out the price, unless maybe they are doing both.. in terms of supplementing their DCA with buying on dips.

Sure there are also likely quite few people who have some BTC and they think that they have enough, so they end up fucking around with trading it because either they are trying to get more dollars (or BTC) and they do not sufficiently calculate that they are playing with too much of their stash, and sure no problem with playing with small portions of your stash, but there are a decent amount who play with too much because they think that they can outsmart BTC's price direction, and then end up with fewer BTC because of those kinds of games than what they might have been able to get from a more straight forward DCA strategy.


I think that you make a good point ShowOff. 

Funny thing is that BTC price does not tend to go below the 200-week moving average, yet we have been having quite a bit of the BTC price going below the 200-week moving average during this cycle, and especially since June 2022, and right now the 200-week moving average is $27,691, so in going below $25k, the BTC price had dipped nearly 11% below the 200-week moving average.. and so expecing more and more dip seems almost crazy, even though surely it is possible.. but at the same time, prices are pretty damned good already.. but hey, people are going to calculate their odds in ways that they consider reasonable, and I don't consider it very reasonable to be placing very high odds of the BTC price going down when it is already below the 200-week moving average - even though we have experienced quite a bit of that phenomena in the last 15 months or so.


Personally, I have never felt comfortable having such large gaps in my buy locations, and even now, I have way more bitcoin than I need, but still I put buy orders every $500.. and so maybe there is no need to be as extreme as me, and you could do every $1,500.. it just seems too greedy to be staggering the amounts with such large spreads, or just a lack of fear about the BTC price going up when it is already pretty damned low... but again. whatever.. people get these low numbers in their head and they think that they are likely to happen merely because they hear a lot of supposedly "smart people" convincingly making those kinds of proclamations.


You are speaking gobbledy-gook Sayeds56.  You are pointing out a pretty fucking low number and saying that "experts" think that it could happen, but then again it might not.. so it's not like you are even saying anything except for proclaiming that a lot of things can happen... which is true, but still not really saying anything of substance or meaning... but what do bots do, anyhow?  they say dumb and meaningless shit that happens to be a kind of amalgamation of what's being said.


This is a good point Sim_card, and I did not really argue it because I kind of went along with a kind of implied presumption in DVlog's scenario in which the SIP practitioner is going to end up spending as much money on BTC as the DCA person, which is far from clear, and I have frequently argued that the employment of a decently aggressive DCA strategy can end up contributing to a BTC accumulator to engage in higher levels of BTC accumulation because s/he is ongoingly in the game.. so even DCA combined with buying on dips may even potentially end up in more BTC accumulation for the person who is trying to be more active with his/her ongoing BTC accumulation, and the waiting for dips and the longer term strategies like that may well end up with the SIP practitioner to end up being a lot more whimpy than he thinks that he is being.

Frequently I have brought up an example of someone who might have lump sum bought BTC in 2015, and s/he bought 20 BTC for around $6,660 (so the average price per BTC is around $333), as compared with someone who might have ended up buying more regularly and more frequently and spending $100k in order to buy 100 BTC between 2015 and 2019 with an average cost of $1k per BTC

Today.  Which one would you rather be?  The one who has 20 BTC has much greater profits 3x more profits since his cost are only around $333 per BTC as compared to the one with 100 BTC and a cost that is 3x higher per BTC.  Total portfolio value is $520k for the one with 20 BTC and $2.6 million for the one with 100 BTC.


Of course, you likely realize that you need to be careful with these kinds of front-loading strategies in terms of figuring out if you are taking too much risk.. or can you justify the risk, and perhaps in the end,  you end up being correct, but you do have to play various downside scenarios in your head to make sure that you will still be o.k. if any of the downside scenarios end up playing out.


All of these sound like great considerations.

I don’t see what you’re saying as a different perspective, maybe you can help me understand this. My perspective is trying to understand if it’s a dip and should I buy into it. I think for your perspective what is important is who caused the dip and why did it dip. My perspective doesn’t need to consider any of these points because the impact(if any) is baked into the dca avg price trend month on month. As to what’s going to happen in the future if you have some way to show you know what’s going to happen I’m all ears. Tell me when it’s going to go up to an a new ATH please.

Nice strategy you gat @DVlog called SIP. I haven't thought of this method to use in accumulating bitcoin,from what i have noticed with the market,your strategy shows that you will only depend on the dip to use as an advantage to accumulate at a discount price. Personally,this strategy like JJG said will only benefit those that are old in their bitcoin journey, and they have accumulated a significant amount of bitcoin and not for begginers who just started their bitcoin journey. The reason is because you might have reserved some funds targeting and waiting for a dip market and if it doesn't come,after a long time,you might be forced to buy at a price that you never planned for,so that you don't end up missing out. No one can predict when the price will dip and this is one big challenge in your strategy,because you are only doin DCA partially during the DIP. I don't also think that your strategy will accumulate more bitcoin than someone who does DCA weekly or monthly in a regular base because he is always buying and increasing to his bitcoin portfolio.

 I am using DCA method because i just started my bitcoin journey and it is not up to two years,and when there is an opportunity to see a price dip,any extra funds that I have and is not useful, I use it to buy higher amount,let me say like 4X my DCA price. What i did recently, was to meet my Boss at work to give me 40% of my salary,which he gave me and i used it to buy at this dip to add to my investment portfolio. This will help me incase, the 25k+ price is the lowest that we will see before the bull run.  I have also spoken to my Boss that i have a project that am working on that will need me to come meet him for 40% percentage three months advance payment,if the current funds on me exhaust. I told him all these, so that if the market goes dipper than this to 20k level,i can go and collect the money from my Boss and invest in bitcoin to take advantage of the dip, because it is better to invest in bitcoin at a discount price than leave for fiat money with your company and get paid monthly with the high rate of inflation in my country.

Then when the market pumps back i continue with my DCA weekly or monthly method, this is my strategy to accumulate more bitcoin. Why i don't like to depend on the dip to buy is because inflation depreciates fiat currency and there might be some unforeseen challenges that are very important that might come and consume that funds that you are piling up to use for buying bitcoin at the dip that no one know the time it will come. Although every investor with their own strategy based on their cash inflow and for how long that they started accumulating bitcoin.

Bitcoin is highly volatile but i still think there is no wrong moment at which you can accumulate Bitcoin, at this current situation even accumulating Bitcoin at a price of $37k is not a bad Idea as long it is for long term holding.
And how sure can you also be, that there will be more dip?
The price of Bitcoin is not controlled by anyone but the only main factors which can affect the price of Bitcoin is the Demand and Suplly so even if any company wants to accumulate it wouldn't stop you from buying now because you never can tell when the bull run will start.

This is exactly my views and I have stated same here. Glad to see you put it in another perspective and with a reference. I have always known that when the consolidation lingers, there are higher chances of sharp moves in the opposite direction to the intended real direction. The market makers do this for two reasons: to seek for liquidity( such as hunting for the stop loss of those who would have entered the market with their protective stops below the range) and to create fear and panic (this is where weak hands sell while strong hands buy more). This pattern is consistent across all tradable asset classes.

Your analysis is good I must admit, however, I want you to look at it from another perspective. You will agree with me that there was no major news/event from 2022 till date that market will respond vigorously to. This a lone is an indication that price movement from next year will be totally different from that of last year till now because we are expecting major news/events next year. If this is correct, do you think the move will just happen without some market manipulations? The big guys will most likely want to buy very cheap; they have different mechanisms through which they achieve this. Buying at the present price level is good and very encouraging but that does not eliminate the possibility of further downside. I am not actually perturbed by further dip because I follow my DCA religiously.

That's right, Bitcoin has a history of surprising market participants with unexpected moves and what is clear right now is that Bitcoin is all the rage now, Well, now How do we put yourself in the best position to trade and invest in Bitcoin in moments like these meaning there are many trading strategies that can be applied, whether you want to trade the DCA model, the instinct model, or technical analysis and try and gauge the Bitcoin market sentiment and take advantage of this for sure.

Of course we have to have extra money again and  next to go to the exchange, make a local money deposit, money that will be used to buy Bitcoin otherwise moments like this will just pass by.

Your approach to investing in Bitcoin is a prudent one and aligns with the long-term financial planning and risk management. Although many market experts are anticipating a major dip in Bitcoin's price, dropping to price to $20,000 or even below, based on their fundamental and technical analysis, but it is important to recognize that such forecasts are not certain. Bitcoin has history of surprising market participants with unexpected movements. However, if such a scenario unfolds, it would be wise to capitalize on this potentially lucrative moment.

Manipulation will always be there because in the end some of those with large funds will want something cheaper in the purchase but in this case we don't need to bother thinking I think because we also only need to focus on what we want to aim for and the pattern we always do in the end.
Apart from the many manipulations that occur we just have to follow the right momentum in purchasing because we have our own strategy for that, so that when those who have a lot of money try to manipulate (although this has little impact on bitcoin) but we also need to utilize momentum according to the buying strategy we have.

If you're already buying in the $25k area, that's obviously a good deal. You don't need to buy in the same area if you believe the price can still fall, and the concept of dips and DCA requires you to buy lower than that.


Of course, you can change your purchasing plan and adapt it to market conditions.
If $22k seems like a reasonable buy for your entire budget, then there's no need to wait in the $21k area. But all decisions are yours, so I have no right to give you financial advice, I mean 10% of which may be inaccurate.

Already brought around $25k, so what are the points of buying again if I am only buying the dip? I put in an advanced order because sometimes the price hits my expected level and doesn't stay there for long. So I put my buy order around $20,000, but that doesn't mean I will wait for $20,000 to hit. I think I will probably fill my order manually if BTC goes around $21,000. I often use this method to fill my order.

I'm a few months into my initial BTC accumulation journey but I'm still persevering in this way.

I do not intend for 1 or 2 years but want to be longer at least 5 years and above so that the results are greater in the accumulation, maybe my initial journey is in the range of $15 and $25 every week but over time it will definitely increase and the level of DCA size per week will increase even more if I get some other sources of income, this is being tried and learned to increase the income in order to grow a larger DCA portfolio.

I will do a lum sump when..... Getting a bonus from work, being able to cover the cost of necessities from the month's salary and not disturbing the emergency fund, I will do lum sump that way.

But now I will not force it, I will continue to persevere in the DCA strategy and this is probably the most practical that has been used by many people like us. So continue with the DCA strategy, there are other strategies that I will consider when I have more money.

If you place an order in the $20k area now, then that means you are really expecting a big drop. Of course this may happen, but; buying with this scenario does not seem to have a high percentage of success. I never meant to discourage you from waiting long for a downturn, but a downturn that big requires a lot of FUD as well. I don't even think you need to place an order at $20k right now, that seems wasteful to me.

Just buy it now with the same scenario. This means you buy in at $25k with half your budget now and the other half in hand. You could certainly place an order at $20k after buying at $25k with half the first budget, that seems better to consider instead of waiting for something uncertain. At least you can benefit if the price never drops below $24k, so you already have bitcoin from half your budget.

In this case I think it depends on how you are able to do consistency in doing DCA regardless of a week, 2 weeks or once a month I think it doesn't matter and it's not how much money you have but how your strategy is in managing so that the money you budget for DCA does not interfere with other needs and you are able to do it consistently.

Buying more in what context are you saying? When you say buying more in one moment it can disrupt the consistency of your DCA which in turn is a setback for the DCA that you have been doing for some time because of the aggressiveness made in one moment.

I tried to put half of my order in advance and keep half in hand in case it dips down more i will have some left in my hand to lower my average. My order is around the 20k level and if the price crash further down i will not buy any more until it touches 15k which won't happens i think. Actually, it doesn't matter what i think i just made some planning for my investment strategies and won't change it until there is some unusual scenario occurs.

You are the one employing the SIP and trying to figure out whether there is a dip or not..   My way of doing things is pretty damned dip neutral, at least in the sense that I had already set up my orders down to $13k around last November, and just added to them (on the way up) when the BTC price went up and made some decent adjustments to the size of the orders in June 2023 due to extra money that I had come across (accidentally  or whatever).  You are the one trying to figure out a dip (and I have no problems with that), not me...


Well, if you think that you got it figured out, then fine.. good luck with that... and if you think that you got it in the bag, then we just have to wait to see how it plays out.. and I suppose ONLY you are going to know the extent to which your orders end up getting filled, unless you want to disclose the various price points that you have your buy orders or do you employ your BTC buys manually rather than setting them in advance?


There's always manipulation, but the manipulation is not always down, and sometimes even the manipulators end up getting reckt, so they may well be playing a dangerous game if that is what they are doing... but hey I hardly give any shits.. if the BTC price goes down, then I buy every $500 down to $13k, and if the BTC price starts to get near $20k, I might have to consider adjusting my BTC buy orders between $13k and $20k.. otherwise I am not trying to strategize dips, even though I know a lot of guys are following this thread are engaged in such attempts, so there is nothing wrong with doing that and talking about it because it is surely a central aspect to this thread's topic..

....but it is not going to do you a whole hell of a lot of good to ask me regarding what I think beyond some of my earlier assertions about where I consider there to be support points, and i am not even changing much if any of my BTC buy orders based on where I consider those support points to be, except like I said, I might start to reconsider the size and the placement of my BTC buy orders between $13k and $20k if the BTC price starts to get close to $20k and it appears that it might end up breaking DOWNity through support.. and surely I hope none of that happens, but I have buy orders currently in place to account for that..and a kind of tentative plan in case it ends up happening.. but I am not going to cross the bridge or attempt to cross the bridge until we get there (if we get there?).

Your observation is notably good. But are you certain that there will not be any more dip? As far as I know, when some big company or organization tries to enter the Bitcoin market it crashes down to give them a better opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a low price. This is pure manipulation but this has happened before. It is certain that Blackrock-like company is coming to the Bitcoin market in the future so don't you think there will be some kind of manipulation before the next halving events?

I don't have any objection to what you are doing or even any kind of dispute that your system is able to beat a pure DCA approach. 

However, your approach is likely much better applied after you have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC rather than an approach for either a beginner no coiner/low coiner or someone who considers themselves to be in very early stages of BTC accumulation...  but surely once you might have already crossed some BTC accumulation threshold, then there can be a decent amount of advantages to customize your strategies or even to move away from DCA and more into Buying on dip or some variation of those which seems to be what your SIP approach represents.

Yes, you are right i am only purchasing when my dip formula triggers. Because of this always have funds when the market crashes. After investing that money i started saving my money for the next dip and in this way, I have been buying for the last 2 years. I need to take a look at all my transactions to calculate an average but i am confident that i have more than those who are doing DCA a regular intervals. I know bitcoin investors feel anxious if they have any cash in their hands. They wanted to buy more Bitcoin no matter what the price is. That is why i mentioned that SIP makes people psychologically disciplined.


Maybe you are right this time but i am expecting a last one before the halving. If your prediction becomes true then i will buy everything i have one month before halving. This is my plan for now. Crypto is full of surprises so who knows what happens next? One negative news we will dip or one positive news we will pump.

Having a strategy and not rushing into things is important. I'm always thinking about the future, and I don't believe in investing just for quick profits, especially with Bitcoin. I like that many people here focus on long-term goals. One reason I don't invest a large sum all at once is because it's better to start early when you have the money and not wait for the huge capital to be there. If I try to save up a big amount to invest later, I might end up spending it on something else. So, I prefer to invest $100 from each paycheck, spreading it out over 3-12 months. This way, I can accumulate more Bitcoin over time.

I am going to suggest that your description of SIP does not sound like it is anything that special because in the way that you describe it, it is not that much of a variation of DCA.. and it largely sounds like a variation of DCA... especially since the intervals of DCA can spread out too.. and so your mere assertion that you are attempting to be strategic with when you are employ your DCA in order to attempt to buy on dips, but you are still attempting to buy regularly, so in essence you are still attempting to do your own variation of DCA.

Now, on the other hand, if you tell me that you are ONLY attempting to buy on the dips and you just let the incoming money build up until your buy on the dip formula triggers, then maybe in that case you might not be DCA'ing.. but even those who are buying on the dip will sometimes start to get anxious if they have several months of cash building up and not getting put to work (out of concern that the BTC price might not dip anymore).