Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 19. (Read 24373 times)

I explained it in the acccomponying post at the time. Essentially I think that because the market is bigger it has more momentum and crowd psychology type moves take longer to play out...

I disagree about the two kinds of charts that you made, because I see you equating the price decline in 2014 and 2018. And why did the bear market in 2014 only occur until 2015? while the bear market in 2018 is until around 2021?

if you should look at the bear market patterns of 2014 and 2018, then in the bear market in 2018 it should also occur only for one year, namely up to 2019. then on what basis did you write in 2021 the price of the BTC was only $ 2438 whereas what I know after bitcoin halving one year later there will be a bull market, as has happened in 2016-2017. if there is a clear reason your analysis will be highly appreciated.

Thanks, It's still got some to play out. If it continue to slide through 2020 then by the end of the year I'll probably consider myself as having called it.

It's hard to know what my "unbiased opinion" would be nowadays. When I made the original call it was just about the way group psychology plays out during sell offs. So it could apply to any coin, whether I believed in them or not. It wasn't because I believed bitcoin had failed, but because I had just seen a run-up and thought that it should be possible to predict how the sell of would progress... so far so good.

To make any further forecast about price once we hit that $2500 region is difficult, because then the price is more a reflection of fundamentals i.e. the s-curve of adoption.

So that would mean looking at usage, and future utility. Whether or not will continue to grow in adoption. I think Bitcoin will, more so than ever now I know about the ins and outs of SCRIPT (mind blown btw) and the ways in which it is possible to scale massively on-chain. The projects being built on BSV are just a taste of what is to come - staunch BTC supporters mock them, not realising what these projects represent - they are the "Hello, world!" type applications you create when you first learn a new technology. They are proofs of concepts, they are the Webcrawlers, the Altavistas,  the Compuserves. BSV facilitates this because of its philosophy of acting as a dumb protocol on the base layer. BSVs stated goal is to do this within the existing legal and regulatory frameworks. This makes a lot of sense given the history of cryptocurrency (I'm talking about pre-bitcoin) if you don't know the pre-history its worth knowing because it underpins why Bitcoin is a public ledger, and why it does not facilitate anonymous transactions.

Over in Bitcoin, I see some of the innovation coming out of Blockstream and I see continued development of LN protocol. However these innovations change the very nature of the BTC network/blockchain. Keeping a block size limit (1mb or otherwise) has ramifications such as perverting the incentive mechanism meaning that the mining fees do not naturally replace thee block reward over time. Pushing tx off chain into LN not only deprives miners of fees (further dis-incentivising them from mining), but it opens up legal ramifications on node operators. Furthermore it takes then network from being a sybil resistant hyper-connected network of miners, to one which the Lightning Network white paper (yes I have read that too) itself describes as "Eventually, with optimizations, the network will look a lot like the correspondent banking network, or Tier-1 ISPs."

source: https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf (Section 8.4 Payment Routing, pp48)

So my previous forecast of run ups have all had this inherent bias towards Bitcoin's success. I still have that bias, as outlined above with what I see happening on BSV right now.

If I believed BTC still had the same value proposition as  Bitcoin I'd tell you that the bottom at 2500 would precede a couple years slow growth which would take you back to maybe $10k and then you'd probably get another run up to 6 figures maybe $150k or something. Which would eventually top and there would be another one of these correction cycles.

However because I beleive that BTC no longer has that value proposition, then that leads me to believe that their is no price support from the s-curve of adoption base value. So unless something changes with respect to BTC's usage, adoption and/or utility then sadly I do not think its price will recover.

The worst part of all, is that the market will probably just carry on dragging along for a while (maybe not until 2050 eh fabiorem? I have a little faith that people are smart enough that they will figure out what is going on before then. By that I mean the world outside of Bitcointalk ) so even my "beloved" BSV will likely suffer as the slide continues.

Although, when that bonded courier turns up, things could change pretty fast

To be frank i do not believe in charts in the crypto market as nothing will perform like we speculate and here is a market that would go down if you see ten thousand bitcoin being transferred to any exchange then you will see the market going down and in that kind of market what can we predict and expect in the short term but in the long term i am bullish.

Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.

Posted in February 2018



The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice

On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.

Maybe for others, not for me I'm no trader. What I post here is *definitely* not trading advice

The death cross was deadly and will give us bad years for at least 2020 and 2021, we need a reversal in 2022-2023, because otherwise I tend to agree with you, nothing bullish to be seen anytime soon. Still money to be made if you are a skilled trader.

There is no Sarcasm. BSV/BTC are tickers. I am a *Bitcoin* maximalist.

BSV most closely matches what I understand Bitcoin to be. If the BSV dev team drop the ball on restoring Bitcoin (unlikely given they have Satoshi amongst them) then it would become as dead to me as BTC, BCH and every other alt coin out their.

But this thread is not about me (well apart from my amazing predictive skills ) its about the price of BTC, which looks like this...



I don't know how anyone can look at that chart and be bullish.

Downward channel, lower highs, lower lows and that death cross looks pretty bleak.

Can somebody draw me a chart that shows a way out? cos I cannot see one right now.

Thought BSV was the real deal or I missed the sarcasm?  

All alts are trash.

I'm a Bitcoin maximalist.

Not my fault if now it's possible to place bets on BTC price going down, don't think it was possible back in 2017? Crazy year that was!




@Clement Kaliyar  
Would you agree with the following bet?

BTC price to go below 6k before 31 May 2020?

No it doesn't > I pay you 0.05 BTC
Yes it does > You pay me 0.05 BTC (my address is in my signature, I already have a long term pending bet )

Waiting for your reply on this.




Very fair point.

Who cares about merchants? Why do you think utility revolves around merchant adoption?

The vast majority of gold usage is in value storage and speculation: bars/coins sitting in vaults and safes, trading on commodities markets. Do merchants accept gold? No! Does it have an $8 trillion market cap? Yes!

Plus, merchants are inherently late adopters because they are not speculators. Speculation naturally precedes adoption because no one knows whether BTC will catch on. That's exactly what speculators are betting on in these early years. Merchants will only be dragged along once consumers demand it as a medium of exchange. And the fact is, consumers may never demand it any more than they do with gold.

There are all different types of money. Some function better as mediums of exchange than others. That doesn't mean those primarily serving as stores of value have no utility.

Bitcoin is almost useless because of bear speculation. Merchants wont adopt it when the price is always going down, they dont want to lose money.

Bear market will not go until 2022, it will go forever. At least, for people like you and the OP. As soon as his bottom is hit, he will make a two-digit prediction for 2100.

Of course I also hope we never break below the 6.4k support, but if we simply look at the facts everything indicates (zigzag ABC correction) that in about 6 months from now, we will be around 5k (more or less, difficult to predict exact prices). Second half of 2020 shouldn't be good either, the correction will hit the market too hard.
Just my 2 cents, let's see in 6 months first, then 12 months.
 

The possibility of seeing the price of bitcoin below $3500 even in the worst case scenario is highly unlikely, people who trust the market and expecting the market to rally will start investing whenever the price of bitcoin goes down and hence we will have a balance as the support is really strong at $6400 with the current market situation and until and unless there is a negative trend i hope we wont break that support level.

Bitcoin has became purely a trading asset, let's be honest, still in 2019 it is almost useless.

Myself I used Bitcoin to deposit and withdraw from sports betting websites (Easysportbet) that was the only times I actually used Bitcoin for a real purpose. With my sports betting activity I won 4k euros this year, not bad. Thanks Bitcoin and horse racing.

But that was still a pain in the ass to withdraw my money in fiat currency. I have a Transferwise account and they refuse bank transfers from crypto exchange websites. In my country half of the banks will ask you questions if you transfer 4000 euros from a Bitcoin related service. That sucks but it is what it is 

Now when you sign up with Bitwala, you have to enter your country of residence for tax purpose.  Which means Bitwala will share your trading history with third parties so that you pay taxes in your country.

But other than that, Bitcoin is almost useless, it is purely a speculation asset, therefore my belief is that Bitcoin almost always follows the technical analysis patterns, plain and simple. It proved countless of times. Bear market until 2022, after that a bull run is still likely, unless Bitcoin has completely vanished of course.

That was never Bitcoin's purpose. It was presented as an alternative form of money, not a replacement for anything. I don't see why it would "fail" if the price doesn't go up fast enough.


Gold's market cap is arbitrary, especially because it doesn't back money anymore. I don't see why it's relevant to Bitcoin.

The problem is not the price, its the time.

If you stretch it too much, bitcoin will fail for its initial purpose, which was as a replacement for gold and fiat currencies.
Fiat currencies were based on gold before. So the idea would be that bitcoin, replacing gold, would become the base for a new global currency. For this, it needs to grow in value.

Value is fundamental to money. Bitcoin need to have at least the same marketcap of gold, which implies a high value.

Bitcoin have 10 years. A six-year cycle already covers more than half of its current age. When it reaches 20 years, then you can talk about long bear markets.

Imagine if BTC price goes back to 1k. There will be panic but it's a big resistance, no one is looking at it right but if that happened, 1k would be a great price to buy IMO.
I am still uncertain it goes back to 1k. To be honest if I had to guess right now, I would say BTC won't go back to 1k, but possibly 2k indeed. There are big resistances out there, no one looking at them because they are in the bottom. I can't think of year 2050 to be honest, either BTC is a true currency at this stage or it died. All of us want our profits before 2030. I would say year 2026 is a good target, BTC price could be epic but that's still early to talk about it.
My opinion is based on the fact that so far BTC price is almost 100% technical and almost 0% fundamental. There will always be people speculating as long as money can be made but of course BTC will (should) evolve too (and the whole environment with it).

You stretched it too much. I dont believe it will take that long.

If we are going to see 2k, it will be next year, not 2021.

Also, sgbear will make a three-digit prediction for 2050 if we reach 2k in 2021. I dont see bitcoin having a future with three digits, it would be the victory of the fiat system, which is what every bear wants.