Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 20. (Read 24348 times)

Also stop drinking the alt-coin kool-aid.... it’s like energy drinks unhealthy poison.... just like there water etc is the long term better one

Good good every 40-50-60y old will love to wait 10-20-30 years to succeed in your guys theories

They can’t be more wrong imo  (your theories)

With increase of users daily ... more and more adoption .... more and more acceptance.... more and more knowledge from more and more people about why BTC is a better money ... more and more knowledge it’s the only true scarce digital fast sendable decentralized money and so much more that gets figured out more and more by more and more people....
And you guys still talking the market will slow down for year’s and years

It’s just a moving train leaving behind the d*mb and those that don’t wanna see what’s good.....

Of-course we can all have different approaches and way of thinking, but some claims are just outrageous and stupid....

Either way, one of the two sides of the coin will come up, let’s see which one gonna make through...

@ sgbett

Since you are into alt coins (BSV apparently which is not my cup of tea), what do you think of Monero?

Bitcoin can definitely have a future.

But I agree that 2020 and 2021 won't be good.

About the bottom in February 2021, we will see. But after that, it could be a new cycle, it could take a while but 2023-2026 could be epic if we repeat the bull run of 2017, with of course a much higher high than 19k. This game is for patient people.

Man just look at it. It is just copy/pasted a 1 year chart over a 3 years.  Of course he cant be totally right. LOL.   OP thinks that halving will from now on happen every 12 years and not anymore every 4 years.

In my case it took more than 24 hours for the first confirmation. I sold it for BTC.

Why *are* they posting?

One of them claims it took 24 hours for a tx. Which is just hilarious, given how trivial it is to demonstrate that tx are almost instant.

Another claims there OKex need 200 confirmations for security. I wonder how smart you have to be to use and exchange that requires 200 confs but you pin it on security all you want. Again, hilarious once you understand the actual security model of bitcoin (hint: its not waiting for confirmations).

Keep blundering on in the dark though. At this point, everyone has had fair warning, so expect some schadenfreude.

It's nothing to do with Okex. It's to do with the pathetic lack of the coin's security. They can't trust it to not be double spent or hard forked until there's a mountain of confirmations which is why they insist on holding on to it for so long.

Weakness isn't a problem for running yesterday's weather through it. For anything else it sure as shit is.

I have not used BSV and hence i am not sure about the delay in transaction but it looks like the problem you faced is because of OKex because of their policy of having 200 confirmation, if you are not able to have a fluid transaction in exchanges then it is highly unlikely that people will be using that coin.

@OP did you just edit the thread now seeing the price of bitcoin going down, i like the bottom price and if that will happen then i will be glad to invest once again , but apart from these speculation i am not expecting the market to go down below $5k even in the worst case scenario.

I sold some BSV for LTC through Okex.

They wouldn't release the LTC until there were 200 BSV confirmations which took about 2-3 days of waiting.

Coin of the future I tells ya and superb endorsement of its peerless security.

I used BSV and it took more than 24 hours to complete a transaction. This was during the chinese bull run (may 2019), when the network was clogged.

Whereas with bitcoin, when it was clogged (december 2017), didnt took more than 6 hours.

Someone might argue its because BSV dont have enough miners, but then, it have less users as well.

Thanks Im not always right but something about a broken clock

So yeah 2021... nobody wants to hear my opinion about what happens then

I'll put it this way, the mood out there whilst starting to falter is still majority bullish and to me that means the bear market is not, and never was over. These huge long term moves are the ones most likely to reflect the cycle of greed and fear.

I've seen a few of these boom boost cycles, and for anyone that remembers the euphoria on the way up - then consider that there has to be a comparable amount of despair on the way down. Until you get that capitulation phase then the market cannot find a new base to launch from.

For me, threads like this one https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/q4-quarter-4-speculation-thread-where-will-2019-end-join-the-list-5188987 are an invaluable guide to sentiment.

Thats a prediction thread for end of 2019. Only 10 people guessed lower than me ($6383). The mean guess was ~$13,500 the median was ~$11,400.

Given the price at the time was around $8300 I think should gives a *strong* reading!

Everyone is still caught in the "return to normal" fear has not yet set in (it feels like its coming very soon though). At which point you see how it is quite possible to continue the slide all the way to ~$2,5k

It takes so much longer because the market is so much bigger now (more participants) it's more like an oil tanker now. Compare it to e.g the 32 run-up back in Jun '11, over in weeks and by December the whole bear market had played out. Much smaller market, much quicker resolution.

It looks like the timescale I've suggested still fits. Eventually all the speculators are shaken free, leaving only the underlying utility based price.

That's where BTC might have a problem. Actual organic use of the BTC blockchain is limited to being a settlement layer for one of several new custodial solutions. LN, Liquid etc perhaps they will have some value. As it has chosen not to scale to allow for onchain traffic. Traffic necessary to generate the volume of tx fees that will incentivise the miners to keep mining. That block reward is only ever gonna get smaller....

*Bitcoin* will prevail though. As its utility continues to increase its base price will be supported. The s-curve of adoption is a much more powerful and sustainable driver of price, than speculative run-ups.

In fact USD is only really a proxy measure for value. Bitcoin's true value comes from the ways in which you can use it.

The hardest part is finding Bitcoin. It isn't going to be handed to you on a plate, the vary nature of humans competing ensures that it will be made difficult. So my advice is look in the places where it is hard to look. Consider things that are difficult to consider. Weigh everything carefully. Think about what people's incentives are. When the replies inevitably come to this thread about me being a BSV shill think about why those people are posting. I don't blame them they see BSV as a massive threat (why?). I've a long history on this forum of being a massive Bitcoin bull, because I could see its potential. Over the years I have come to learn so much more that it has gone way beyond what I could even imagination. It baffles me that people aren't looking at that, and instead are still trying to see Bitcoin and/or any other currency they might be HODLing as solely some kind of get rich scheme. Bitcoin is so much more. The people that find it now (ie truly grok it) are basically in the same position as the people that found it back in 2010/11 the opportunity is huge. Not to buy it and get rich but to get into the space early and build products and services before anyone else realises what is going on.

Caveat Emptor. DYOR.

Also, credit when it's due, I checked this again and even though you were very wrong about 2018, your price mid 2019 looks amazingly correct.
I mean look at that chart with the peak at 13k in May-June 2019, this call was amazing. Kudos.

He will definitely be wrong if that happens, that said right now it looks very unlikely to get close to 15k. Actually the price of 15k doesn't mean much, the important price is 12.5k-13k, if we get past that in the future, it means 20k is a sure thing.


PS: we could get past 13k again, for a huge bull run but OP prediction could still be correct about a new low in February 2021. It is very possible to see 20k again but we may want to wait for 3 or 4 years (please spare me the halving argument for next year, don't think it will have an impact, at least not in 2020).


@sgbett: since your initial prediction was based on the 2014 bear market, I am curious to hear your opinion after February 2021?
Bitcoin price could still look good after that.

Would you admit to be wrong if a bull run occurs up to > $15k ?

You are absolutely correct the initial forecast wasn’t accurate on price.

Once I saw that we had a lower high on the initial bounce I revised it to account, charts I’ve posted since have the original forecast and a revised forecast (purple) as I’m not trying to actively trade so precision isn’t as important to me as some others, I’m looking at how human behaviour moves markets in predictable patterns.



So far so good (or bad depending on whether you saw it coming )

Thanks for the link about flat waves, that's interesting. I am still a newbie when it comes to techniques of trading. By the way by reading a totally different analysis (this one  https://beincrypto.com/btc-bitcoin-price-prediction-2019-2020-5-years-updated-10-10-2019/  ) would you think this analysis could be correct or looks too simple?

it's just based on an extrapolation of the 2014 bear market. we can already see the proportions don't align, so we should also expect that the end target will miss too.

based on fibonacci relationships, one would expect that the higher the "bull trap" retracement is, the higher the eventual bottom will be. that's the fundamental idea behind "flat" waves in elliott wave theory: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:identifying_elliott_wave_patterns#flat_corrections

we didn't quite reach the 70% retracement requirement for a flat, but pretty close. i previously thought the $2483 prediction was too high given the predicted price structure, but it might actually be more reasonable now.

i still think he's way off and that the $14k rally this year wasn't a bull trap....

Safest way to buy that I know of is going off the easily upset human sentiment, the market momentum is far greater then to observe our personal hopes for it.     Theres not nearly enough upset people at 8500 for me to be especially bullish and we have no history right now of a regular bullish trend.
   People have these long term projections but theres giant amounts of space for price movement within those year to year expectations.     I'm not rich enough to disregard the ability for it to goto 6000 or maybe even lower.    I'll reassess when or if we get there and look for the green shoots of rising lows and all that while thats happening I guess I read lot of gloom.  If Im a decent trader I'll try to hold my own opinion and stay optimistic because long term I dont disagree we can move up still but the BTC market tests extremes quite often imo.

Right now it is not that far...
anyway I have a totally different chart that shows 20k for Januaru 2020. So let's wait a 14 months and see how it unfolds.



Ignore the red line for now.

The blue and green lines are acting as resistance and support.






Quoting the article: https://beincrypto.com/btc-bitcoin-price-prediction-2019-2020-5-years-updated-10-10-2019/