Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 22. (Read 24373 times)

Crypto winter will soon finish, but that dont mean any serious bull run will start. We survived this winter at unreasonable high Bitcoin prices.  Bitcoin price at last halving was 1/2 of previous ATH. In halving before 1/3 of previous ATH. So transplanting those prices to upcoming halving that will happen in 7 months price should be from $7-10k. That is what is now. And lower then previous months. So please dont be to optimistic. Same as to pessimistic, but winter is over!

sgbett is in bed with BSV scammers, and listening to him will for sure lead to financial loss as he has malicious intent. This is course assumes that he won't get 'random-lucky', for which the possibility always exists.

Time is a corrective force as well as price, to predict we will continue downwards through 2020 is as unlikely an idea as those who thought in July we'd just keep rising repeatedly.  Though either is possible as a scenario we get resistance when trying to break through previous volume or resistance.  If we are descending for the rest of this year and we achieve lower prices it wont be any more negative then the cycle 12 months ago and we turned around then as we might now.    Its worth keeping a watch for positive action while we have a rising 200 day average, longer term we have positive action possible though its not present currently.

i'm sensing overconfidence.

the problem of course, is that your theory can't be proven or disproved until we break the december 2018 lows or the june 2019 highs. dow theory says this could easily be a pullback in a primary bull market. volume confirmation supports that idea---volume increased throughout the q1-q2 rally and has been decreasing throughout the subsequent correction.

Predicting bear winter through the 2020 halving, a gutsy move! I usually like taking contrarian positions but it's too early for me to take that bet.

My thinking is the market is near a major decision point. Either we've entered a new bull market and are now finding support in a higher trading range, or this is the slow bleed at the start of another bear market.

The next couple months should be telling. In my opinion, the closest parallel to where we are now is June or July 2013. By the end of the year or early Q1 next year, I think it'll be obvious we're entering the next phase of the bull market, but that's just my gut feeling. We can let the charts do the talking.

Nothing has changed, zooming out you can see it continues to play as predicted...



2020 is going to be hell for the average BTCer that doesn't know what a real "crypto winter" feels like. The confusion and anger, the sense of betrayal.

This is operant conditioning with variable ratio reinforcement. It's incredibly effective at getting people to keep chasing a reward (number go up) despite repeated loss. It's very similar to the reason people become addicted to e.g. gambling. People do not like to think about unpleasant experiences, they prefer to remember pleasant ones. This makes their judgement irrational.

That is why people cannot see what is going on, they are focused on the recent successes and block out the negative emotions felt as the price goes down.

These human behaviours are what drive macro moves, and the larger the market the slower it plays out. I've said it before many a time, and I'm not the only one.

Why am I telling people? Because being right OTI is what it's all about right

Any Update we are below 200 day SMA How its go and play for time.

Wow this is not expected at all... should've kept ranging for another month before the triangle resolved!

Suspect this move is not based on trading, but something else happening.

CSW and Ira about to reach a settlement... perhaps there is some liquidation afoot.

Also interesting that BCH and BSV went down with it!

Here is another wild idea - this sell off looks similar size to an upward move on 2nd April.

If you offset them it puts price much closer to what I was expecting...



One thing for sure this "bull market" that we are supposedly in looks weaker every day.

Do you have any internal information when will this happen? He said until end of 2019 that is almost ending. So his prediction/threath is dangerously close to fail. Is that even possible? Was he ever wrong so far?

Lol. I wonder when you will figure out what is going on

So which way is it going to go... lower highs... looks like a big ol' triangle is forming... ugh might have to wait until October for our answer...



But what's this, lets look back to the 260 run-up aka the "precursor to gox"... (I know it will blow your mind torque that I can consider alternative and opposing scenarios)



If the triangle breaks out to the upside, then it could truly explode.

Which will it be - if its the second one then this inital run up was *way* bigger than I predicted here where I said the initial run up would be up to $10k.

Projecting out based on an initial "correction" at 20k, then the real run-up goes as high as $1m.

[in b4 "sgbett has dumped his BSV bags and bought BTC" - relax, I haven't ]

To be clear the latter scenario is not the outcome I expect due to BTC having deviated from its original design. Had it not, I would very much be considering it the more likely scenario right now and selling my worldly possessions to capitalise!

Had the money and clarity of mind to see that it was an opportunity, but got blocked by French government during this exact time period august-december 2015. When I was released back to Sweden I immediately started buying at $100 weekly limit on coinbase, but it was too late it had already gone to $10 and I was out of position and have not recovered since, playing catch up. Re entry during period 2018-2020 succeeded in -99% and now -50% but the amounts are only a few thousand dollars at most $10 000. Feeling that government squeeze right now with insurance problems, it doesn't matter, the deal was already sealed back in early 2016, no road back to freedom most likely, don't care. Blew $30k in Prague in 2017 best investment I ever made, going back in october.

Every heard of spoofing and fake bid walls? 

it's not 2014 anymore. the altcoin markets are much more liquid than that. if you sold 1000 ETH on coinbase right now, you'd crash the price a whopping $2 down to $220.

in hindsight, the easiest way to get ETH liquidity back then was to participate in the ICO. but if you wanted to put $50k into ETH in 2015, you had 5 months and ample volume to accumulate a position from august-december. easy as cake, if you just had the foresight to be bullish at the time.

I use litecoin everytime I need to buy something and find gatekeepers along the way. I dont use bitcoin for payments, lest I regret it. Bitcoin is a reserve currency for many, we only experiment with alts because its not good to short bitcoin.

There have been supposed ETH OTC services but maybe they were created to give a false sense of hope. ETH certainly seems to specialise in clearing out exchange order books like nothing else.

You would never have been able to do this. ETH has no liquidity, the market float is laughably thin. Just trying to liquidate 1000 ETH on a single exchange would crash it down to cents.

I hope and believe that Sgbetts btc prediction will come true inorder to progress this status quo caused by centralized entities like Binance (China) and CMC (Goldman/CIA) and other regulatory instruments like those pesky futures that no one in the field asked for, it was all mana from above.

The fact of the matter is that BTC is infested with power players from the Ancient Regime and military industrial/saudi complex and a satisfactory evolution would be wholesale adoption by the global populus of prime altcoins or even a completely new chain perhaps AI based, that can even this highly unbalanced power field between citizenry and elite that are moving towards some demi godhood soon.

I look at this forum and see people talk poorly of altcoins and the outcome of true power decentralization of finance. These are Kingmakers, and would well to fit in medieval castles as feudal lords, there are austrian guilds and royalist political parties you can join to serve this cause and they dress the part too, but don't reinvent this flawed ideology here simply because your stock full of BTC since 2012 on 100 000% green. We have already seen what happens when a few gain perversive profits, I for one can definitely do without entities like craig wright that are spamming the media landscape using professional agencies with his dragon size piled of BTC treasure. that he is converting to a pile of dragon sized excrement courtesy of non prescence of any other form of talent than flaking into BTC with timing and placement a decade ago and then descending into a tornado of lunacy like some Roman Imperator. Truly scary stuff to witness the backwaters of human history in its entirety reflected in crypto sphere.

It is moving either towards a neo feudal realm, or progressive sovereignity for vast amounts of people, I choose the latter and frankly am repulsed by any other trajectory for this nascent tech.

Ultimately I belive that the power players behind BTC has already attained escape velocity, in combination with a stupified citizenry that are basically voluntaring to place the chains and bonds on their limbs by inaction and continued support of fiat infinitum.

My only regret is that I didn't shovel $50k into ETH in 2015 and cashed in $50 million two years later. I would use them to build a counter party/army at this stage. It will be needed if this cycle isn't broken soon enough. There has never been a better candidate for civil conflict than crypto, I have been saying it for years.

This singular BTC worship and blind greed will have dire effects, you will have your gains but leave a wasteland behind for the new generations. In a religious context, BTC - causa prima, is the face of the antichrist proper.

BTC has the greatest population so the bias is for it to continue as the main crypto choice, it will take alot for people to jump the tracks and be on another blockchain for everything and theres be lots of times previous when people join with an alt coin but end up holding BTC.    I agree that whatever offers the greatest utility and efficiency is the likely successor but a large part of that is going to be stability I suppose and as the longest blockchain apparently BTC has advantages that keep helping it to stay up.   I thought its $30 fees was the end whatever the price then tbh, if they forget the common people I dont think BTC will last out the fight.

Anyway its getting hard to be bearish at present, its exceeded 8 day average just wandering through.   The weekly is still a good ski slope, but I dont know it wont just break this trend and head to the last good daily trend at 12,000 with 50 day 10500 or so.    9000 would appear to be the support it needs to break for a proper sell



We need people to consider every scenario really.     I always consider it just probabilities and nobody is right till it happens.

Seems to me you have some sort of a reading problem.

All I read here is "blah blah blah BTC price will crash blah blah blah blah BSV will be king blah blah blah blah blah BTC price will crash blah blah BSV will be king blah blah blah blah BTC price will crash blah blah blah"

Like being wrong much, sgbett?