Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 23. (Read 24373 times)

Hi extasie, yes it could be considered a bull trap - certainly the way the social media's reacted it was as if these people had never seen how markets work!

WRT momentum range - I explained (perhaps badly) how I thought it worked. In essence the market is much bigger now, with many more participants, and so the crowd behaviour plays out over a longer timescale (I had a 2.83 multiplier loosely based on mapping the first bounce at $6k to the bounce at $380 following the box $1200 ATH)

So thats why this move up from ~3500 to ~14000 is bigger, and longer (around 3x). Also why any following downtrend would also be longer. In the post I linked above ~2 years vs 220days in the post-gox consolidation.

Having said all that, its no secret that I think BTC has screwed the pooch and so in actual fact there will be no recovery after those 2 years, just slow death. I say slow, things could happen that may accelerate that, but nobody really believes CSW has a million BTC he is going to sell in order to fund charitable causes, because the Aussie man is bad right?

In fact as things become ever clearer over the next 2 years (which under normal circumstances would just be an "accumulation phase") people will wake up to the reality of what has happened to BTC. I don't really care to explain that for the umpteenth time because I when something is inevitable it doesn't really matter what is said. The true BTCleivers aren't about to change their mind any time soon It's the next wave of entrants that will be the deciding force in the marketplace, and that wave will enter because of utility (as it was always so). They won't have any longstanding BTC bias that clouds their judgement they will just see easy p2p cash, a plethora of BSV backed services on metanet, and in many cases they will use it without even realising it.

"Speculative mania phases on the s-curve of adoption." I been saying this for literally years. I'm not the only one that has figured this out.

The s-curve *requires* adoption.

In your chart, 2019 is a bull trap. This is technically still a possibility as long as we don't break the 2017 ATH. But you have to admit, the 2014 bull trap was much weaker in terms of momentum and range, right? Do you have any method to gauge the strength of this move to determine if it's not a bull trap? Or are you just waiting for a binary outcome, either new ATH or doom?

It's true that bears are up against the Tether Printer. I don't like betting against the Tether Printer.

That's right! The specifics are always subject to randomness. When you have binance flooding market with Tether funny things happen to BTC price

Multi year trend forecasts take time to play out though, and in the short term people can become ever so confused about the big picture. Most people still haven't figured out what BitCoin is!

we haven't even formed a structural lower low yet. let the market take out the $7500 pivot before declaring victory---at the very least. hell, we're still above where you said the top would be!

if we dump below the june 4th low and the weekly 20ma, i'll concede there may be something to your theory. until then it's just hope.

impossible unless bitcoin is heading to zero. why would whales kill their golden goose? and on top of that lose their power to deeper pockets who would be buying all the way down? there might not even be enough coins to borrow to short at those levels. price would have to be blatantly manipulated to those levels which would in essence kill all the credibility in bitcoin. its not going to happen, bitcoin has come to far in ten years to implode.

Patiently waiting for the prophecy to fulfil...



I’m a bit out with price/timing. You’ll see the trend unfolding as predicted though. Tether or no tether, the market behaves like the ocean. You cannot fight tides.

Nope, we are less then a year away from halving. Hash rate is making new ATHs. So as active wallets and number of transactions. It is way to late for a bottom now.

Solid projections, I can certainly respect the bull case you presenting!

Thanks for your insights.

The Blue 100-MA in the Weekly is currently at $7,049.  It "should" act as solid support on the way up in this Bull Trend.  It's a good possibility we may never see below $7,000 again.  Be Black 200-MA in the Weekly is approximately $4,000.  I'm quite confident we don't come anywhere near the Black 200-MA in the Weekly again until we fall into another year of distribution similar to 2014 and 2018.

I'm of the opinion we will NEVER fall below the BLACK 200-MA in this 2-Day TF on the way up and the Blue 100-MA in the 2-Day will continually act as SOLID support on the way up to a buying climax by end of 2021.  I'm anticipating a year of consolidation in 2022; similar to the year of distribution we had in 2014 and 2018.  We will fall below the 200-MA in the 2-Day once we enter into another year of distribution.

The BLUE 100-MA in the 2-Day is already at $5,390 and climbing.  It will continue to climb even as the price action falls.  By the time they meet one another, we can anticipate the 100-MA to be much higher than it is currently.  A long term bull trend has set in.  Supply on retail exchanges is steadily decreasing while demand is increasing.  

We are about to have a golden cross of the Blue 100-MA crossing up and over the Black 200-MA in the 2-Day.  EVERY TIME in history this has occurred, it has sealed the deal for a legitimate bull market in play with the 100-MA in the 2-Day acting as SOLID support until we fall into a year of distribution.

Yes more momentum. More market players, things play out over much longer timescales now the market is bigger.

It's totally not trading advice, just want to look one of the cool trader kids on the internet and be able to say "told ya so". Thats what it's all about right?

i can see the possibility, but you have to admit.....this rally has much stronger momentum, and has retraced much further, than the the midsummer 2014 bull trap you're comparing to. the comparison is a bit of a stretch. and if this consolidates at $10k and legs up again, the comparison will look even more outlandish.

i did close longs and sold some spot coins into the $13,880 leg but i'm looking for reentry. just waiting for bulls to show some life first. with a trend this strong (and we're still seeing all higher highs and higher lows) it makes sense to keep betting the trend rather than trying to be contrarian and call the top.

You really can't see the possibility?

This is not true. They were quite similar. But is normal that cant be alike. Price dropped almost the same % from ATH.  Bottom was reached at exactly the same time after the hash rate drop.  Yes that this bottom happened few months earlier.  Yes that you felt different, since you lived one already and you are financially way better situated then back then. Whoever is still waiting for bottom is delusional. In upcoming years we will reach new ATH and after that bottom that will be most likely higher then last ATH. I am pretty much sure we will not see under $10000 BTC in 2020 and after. Not sure, since is hard to be sure in Bitcoin, but pretty sure.  

In all honesty, what percentage do you still believe your prediction?  50/50?  There has got to be some serious doubt by now, no?

All about that coefficient of restitution

About time for you to bounce

You got it all figured out ain’t even no point asking questions.

One might say “that's already been pointed out”

that's already been pointed out.


so in concrete terms, what do you think is gonna happen? i'm not suggesting you are "telling me to do anything". i just want to clarify that you think governments can shut down bitcoin like they did liberty reserve?

the beautiful thing about governments is they are extremely competitive. geopolitics and all that. if one government tries to clamp down on bitcoin and bitcoin services, capital and a quickly growing business sector will simply flee the country for greener pastures.