Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 21. (Read 24373 times)

I am bumping this.
The price did not follow this prediction, even though the trend looks kind of accurate but we weren't even close to the called prices that I am quoting, therefore how to believe the 2483 price?

We were never closed to 16k in April 2018...
What's impressive on the other hand is the bottom at the end of 2018 even though it was worse than your prediction. Hope you are wrong on the long term trend.

Last I looked  we could go to a block size of 16 or 32.

without any forks it was already in the software.

Moving to 4 vs 2  after next jump would be okay and kick the can down the road.

When I look at this system  and the move to alter transaction patterns to off line transactions I see a system getting corrupted.

Do I think BCH or BSV or even BTC are any better then each other not really. What I do think as a miner more then anything else is those 3 coins use sha-256

algorithm which has the most hash in terms of hard iron. 

 Basically I value  crypto on hard iron gear with power grid infrastructure coin with lots of gear and hash is "good to me"  My entire valuation is:

 "turning power into coins"  So I look at four coins.  BTC BCH BSV LTC   as they have the most gear/hashpower .

  I don't even recognize pos coins as crypto coins  but thats me.

 I looked at the thread.
 I put lauda back on my trust list.  Because I read more posts from the Marquis and he or she has values in life that  seem to be not for me . He promotes things I don't believe in and if Lauda thinks he needs a flag  it is okay for me.  Frankly the Marquis's posts here were not flag worthy but he or she is promoting some heavy ideas on other threads.

What do I think happens with BTC vs BCH vs BSV over the next 1 year it wanders about   with no clear direction until Donald Trumps wins or loses 2020 election. 

Once that is settled  then coins will move hard and rapidly.

I'm pissing on the concept as well.

There are 3 ways of securing a decentralized cryptocurrency network: inflation, demurrage, and transaction fees.

Demurrage (implemented in Freicoin) is unappealing to people because it's a literal tax on their holdings. People prefer a more imperceptible form of loss like inflation. However with Bitcoin, we've already sworn off long term inflation, leaving us only with the 3rd option.

Raising block size limit beyond transaction demand cripples any hope for transaction fees to secure a network. With unlimited supply of block space, there is no pressure on users to pay transaction fees. It's completely unsustainable in a post-inflation world.

It's a broken idea. We either need mandatory transaction fees or a fee market model.

You can't. This isn't a matter of opinion, it's a matter of facts based on empirical evidence. Just because some people choose to approach science then same way that they approach religion (hurr durr the almighty God/Satoshi/whatever), that doesn't mean that this position is correct from any perspective. Because it isn't.

I can understand why someone might be sceptical and unhappy with the direction Bitcoin has taken.

What I don't understand is how any rational being can look at BSV and think 'hot damn, Craigy and his miner have this shit nailed.'

You can support big blocks and still think the current options offering it are broken jokes. It's not a crime or dichotomy. Most people are pissing on their current implementations and the personalities controlling them, not the concept.

At least you are transparent if you want to bet on a vs b  and make it clear  by stating your reasons.

This why I have zero issue with it as you simply state you think one is better then the other.

Interesting thoughts. I’m of the opinion that gox was only a catalyst and that subsequent price action reflects crowd psychology. That’s why I think it applies here too. It’s less important what the specific event is that interrupts a price run than it is that the crowd concludes its over. Once they do I think price action unfolds similarly. Especially in a less sophisticated market. (I still don’t  think there is that much institutional money yet)

It’s funny i probably have more exposure to BTC than a lot of people on these boards and yet I’m still able to make impartial observations on price action.

I wonder if those two things are correlated

Commodore Amiga was a 32bit CPU first sold 1987, great innovation and potential used for many years but PC was unbeatable because it was modular (it was inferior for a decade after in some specifics) so it didnt matter as much if Amiga was better, PC served the common need better.      If we're taking lessons from history such as quoting Mt.Gox when that was a known mistake even back in 2013 people realised something was wrong but people will continue always to do the easiest thing.   The more simple the conclusion the more likely it will be repeatedly true.

Totally the right place so long as its BTC we discuss.    If criticism isnt possible then thats a failure right there but its not the case.

No alt is going to challenge BTC especially until its far easier to use by a big margin, then we can talk about vast populations of people who arent in crypto and could be and might be if its thats simple.   Any time they bring out a mobile phone with a wallet on it, thats probably the most relevant source of future success available.   When I was growing up, most people didnt like or couldnt handle PC, console was not really it as its just one task but mobile was the big sea change.  People dont want crypto but they might need it, its not the technical people who love the details who matter for future success I guess.
   I dont agree Mt.Gox can give us a specific price target 6 years later, it was an inaccuracy in the price.  I guess the volume of coins was significant and is being distributed now from it and I dont know the schedule of that sale.

I almost never get involved in fights but Lauda has been temporarily excluded from my trust list. Most likely I will put Lauda back on the list on Monday or Tuesday.

This is complicated since I see two people will fully attacking BTC and claiming alts coins are better choices then BTC.

I am going to say they are full of shit and are simply getting people to panic so they can profit.

The reality is all crypto coins are pretty much bullshit same as all types of 💵 fiat diamonds 💎 sapphires rubies emeralds they have value because people think they have value. People agree to a number and that’s about it.

While I detest the anti bitcoin bullshit pro other coin positions posted here.  I don’t think Lauda should have flagged the guy MarquiseMuseum

I do say this he is trashing BTC to make money 💰 and Lauda has that right.

Sgbett is also trashing BTC to make money but he is frankly admitting this which is easy to see.

I simply don’t know that either one should be flagged. For trashing btc to make money.

I will mull this over and on Monday I will get back to this thread.

At Lauda pm me we can talk
At marquiseMuseum pm me we can talk.

My position stays the same on btc and alts read my signature.

*chuckles* same old line of reasoning. Aussie-man sgbett bad. he scammer.

I don't want your money, I don't want you to buy BSV, I want people like you to hold your BTC til the very end.

Paid propaganda?

I just said why it's not a waste of time. Do you generally refuse to engage with people who have opposing viewpoints?

As a trader, I'm constantly looking for holes in my analysis. Having bears and altcoin supporters in the room is a hell of a lot more useful for that (and interesting) than endless permabull groupthink.


You are blowing things out of proportion. We're talking about a forum, man.

I'm not defending against FUD. I would never bother doing that LOL. I'm trying to engage in a discussion. Whatever you think about MarquiseMuseum's or sgbett's intentions, they are more interesting than 90% of the people posting in Speculation.

There's no point in giving a shit about FUD or trolls. Weak hands are going to sell either way. Worrying about that seems like an epic waste of time to me.


Meh, people said the same thing in 2014 after Bitfinex exploded in popularity. "Now that the market can be shorted, it'll never go up again!" Right.

Do your consistent push with your red-flags, I now strongly believe that anyone is at high risk of losing money when dealing/interacting with you or just by reading your post. Therefore, I have handled accordingly. Welcome to the ignore list as well. I will also submit your shitcoin Museum as a fraudulent website and backlink it to the proper references. Enjoy your stay.

---

Time to get back to the thread and for others to ignore these malicious trolls. If they only had anything worth living for in their life, then they might not be such pests. The price is doing fine.

This is fundamentals so you can remove that negative trust because everything I stated is substantiated by sources.

Do you want me to post links to these sources to corroborate?

You and you ilk are deceiving noobs because you have tons of BTC since years, how on earth can someone like you remain objective?

I have tracked this space for many years and have made an informed conclusion that I am sharing with the community. Obviously Bitcointalk is the wrong place to critizice bitcoin.

I certainly hope you will never reach a position of influence by this downvoting of truth, it is corrupted behaviour.

Extasie: Lauda is one of the reasons of a dystopian future, imagine having a guy with this mental state ruling the world with his stash of monolithic BTC in company with all the other parasites in banking and government. Despicable and antithetical to a decentralized spirit of solidarity of humans.

BTC dominance is gravely damaging to the world economy if it ever attains influence. It is a source of concentrated wealth and power unimaginable to civil society. Best to decentralize between many individual cryptos, not only 1 dominator coin. Not to mention how bizarre it is to push upon us, old tech. WTF do I want with tech equivalent to 56k modem in 2020? It's just bizarre. If Amiga was worth 1 billion Luada would try to push it as the greatest thing ever and everyone absolutely must have amiga because it got 8 bits.

Kingmakers and slaves are roles of the past, a distant history filled with horror, now it is time to lift everyone into prosperity by equal opportunity of sharing in this new economy. BTC had its run, let the rest of us move towards liberation now.

If you bothered to read my history you would see that I was/am a huge btc bull, it doesn't alter the fact that it is a dangerous trajectory due to facts that have recently been discovered.

I have access to this leverage system and it was on purely philosophical foundations that I choose not to sellout to a new parabolic run like Lauda and many legendaries in here. I choose other coins, it is my right. And it is a right I wish to preserve for everyone, this diversity of a global economy. It is much better for social mobility than a dominator coin that is usurped by the military industrial and royal elite. Sorry to the early gainers here that those vampires ruined our fun, but its not only BTC, my main platform has problems with Russia.

I did not know that Bitmex offerd x100 leverage since 2014, well then the foundation of $300k is spoiled because it was not newly accessible to retail. For me, it was only recently that I heard of this type of leverage because it is widely advertised.

So, it is even stronger indication of sub $2000 for BTC.

So wasting time against paid-propaganda and trolls of all kinds is what you want to do for a living? They are toxic to the environment and only serve to expose our resources. Defending against FUD is x-fold more expensive than spreading it. They don't challenge anything. People like you will hopefully realize this and start ignoring them; use your time wisely, you don't have a lot left.

Good thread.

Bitcoin has already beaten fiat in every conceivable way. I have to correct your statement to: Bitcoin can't be adopted by the masses at this time. It's not a matter of will/won't, it's a matter of can/can't for now. The technology is not there yet.

Its not that hard to find one. However, they are disguising themselves as bulls at this moment.

In this post, I catalog the different bear species in this forum.

One thing they have in common: the price will always go down. They make that very elaborate chart analysis, to convince you and others that its a natural "correction", and when the price bottoms, then they make another, as elaborate as the first one, to convince you and others that this is not the bottom, and that it will go even lower.

They keep pushing this narrative, so that at some point, entrapped by their words, you will sell all your stash to them. However, this wont turn them into bulls, and they will sell these coins with 1% profit, half of which will be spent on fees, so that bitcoin never rise to greatness and remains as a tool for speculators.

They also like to drawn waves, and the last wave is always pointing down. If the price goes up, they try to show impartiality, and increase the value in their analysis, like 5% if the price have risen 10%. However, if the price falls 10%, they make a new analysis, now with the last wave showing a 50% fall, not 5%, because they are bears.

The troll bears are more funny, and easy to identify. Sophiscated bears, however, disguise themselves as impartial operators. Know how to spot one.

A victory of the bears means a victory of fiat currency over bitcoin. I dont expect bitcoin to be adopted by the masses, but I dont like the idea of bitcoin becoming a copycat of the stock market.

He's just some kind of altcoin shill. I don't mind that.....in this world everyone is talking their book anyway, including us BTC holders. I honestly miss having more perma bears and trolls around here. They make things interesting and challenge our biases.

Are you seriously thinking his position isn't intentionally malicious or are you just responding because of your sig. campaign? Let's not waste brain-power on paid/unpaid monkeys.

What do you mean? Bitmex has been offering 100x leverage since 2014.


I always tell people, BTC isn't revolutionary. At most, it's a transfer of wealth from one group to another, to the benefit of early adopters.

Why so dystopian though?


How did you come to that conclusion?

This is my conclusion now that x100 leverage was mysteriously introduced to the masses.

Retail gonna get rekt in BTC.

News that transpired after 2017 peak is irrecoverable.

Alts may flourish, with the right picks we have x10 000 in there.

Lots of migrated value from BTC dominance and merchant onramping.

Fair value of BTC is a few hundred million dollars, but personally for me: zero because it's the same control powers as before, in a new package. Dangerous for the future if BTC continues to grow. Very dystopian.

It had a good 1 billion % decade, trailblazed the future of things to come, new prospects and new horizons, new tech, real decentralization, real meritocracy, real democracy the list goes on and on.

The most responsible thing for top exchanges and indexes to do at this point is slowly delist BTC and admit that it did not and will not ever achieve the delusion of hegemonic currency. Mainstream rejected BTC in 2017 and that was the end of it. BTC is not the only deluded crypto, entire top 5 needs to drop -90%.

Alts can flourish when they are not under the tyranny of centralized BTC.

Even USD gateways is preferable.

Best of all is a service based crypto that can not be interfered by either btc or fake fiat.