Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 24. (Read 24373 times)

Tell that to the electrical companies.

I said 2 things, the second of which was that govt has always shut down *anonymous* cash citing its link to crime. Not the anarchist "but the cops tryin' ta steal muh weed" type crime. The human trafficking, child pornography type crime.

Take from that what you will. I'm not telling you to do anything.

The elephant in the room though, is the first thing.

What is the fundamental value of BTC as an anonymous currency? and why would BTC core pursue this in light of  historical precedent?

I know "number go up" is incredibly alluring, but try to reconcile that with a sense of what you are actually investing in, and how sustainable that might be. If everyone is buying to sell higher to someone else then who is the someone else at the end of the rainbow? What was the point in Bitcoin in the first place?

what are you saying, major governments are gonna ban bitcoin? it won't happen. they're smart enough to know it'll make them look impotent and foolish when they fail. past attempts at anonymous e-cash were centralized and could easily be shut down by the USA government. bitcoin can't be taken down like that and they know it.

Everything you questioned has already been answered. I've posted several times on how, as the number of market participants and/or market cap rises. The greater the momentum in the market. It's all proceeding as I expected

Yes 12,5 today is a surprise, but then if you are honestly engaging in discussion then you would remember I was equally surprised when the first bounce didn't go to 15,5 (instead stalling at just under 11)

Go back the the start and look at each run-up in order - you all see they play out over longer and longer timescales. a 3k error here is 25% margin of error. That is way better then thinking you are in a bull market, and buying now and seeing a 80% loss over next couple years.

Anyway thats the thing with long term forecasts, you have to put up with countless short term thinkers telling you how correct they are whilst the moves play out. Thats OK, I've been here before. The vast majority of people are always wrong/late and during the transition you just have to shut out the noise.

Remember BTC still doesn't have any fundamental value, and is being turned into something that the government has historically shut down *every single time* it was "invented" int the past: anonymous e-cash.

When the music stops. You better be ready.

Welp, your prediction is getting more wrong by the day. It's a 300% bounce now...haha quite the bounce! Will it still be a bounce at 15k? How about 20k? 40k? 60k? Now that 9500 has been blow away by several almost 3000 are you beginning to see how ridiculous it is to say bitcoin is still in a bear market when the bottom was half a year ago? You aren't bothered by the fact that such a "bounce" has never before occurred because every single time it wasn't a bounce but a bull market? You aren't concerned that your down arrow down leading into a bounce actually happened over a year ago, which corresponds with how it happened in 2014 as well, rather than you having to draw a weird really long downward line that is many times longer than the one in the previous bear market. And then you label this past bear market as "Tether". Sorry buddy, there was no tether event that caused the bear market.

Your head in the sand mentality to this bull market is more and more hilarious as the bull market drags on.

A story in 3 quotes...

BSV? Yikes. Money go bye bye...

You seem to have your head screwed on, unlike some others commenting

I don't really "trade" - especially the short term - if I had done I would have 37x returns from the initial call back in 2017 to sell at 16,5 (then later buying back at 4 and selling again at 9,5). I didn't ... regrets, not really - risk of holding BTC is too great for me.

But as it happens I flipped my BTC a while back, for BCH then flipped those for BSV. I'm "invested" in what I believe in. I think if people still think BTC is Bitcoin then they should invest accordingly.

As for contingency?  I still have a little exposure to BTC via an ETF. I know how irrational markets can be

That doesn't answer the question. Any respectable analysis needs to have a point at which it's invalidated by price action. Clearly being off by a couple thousand bucks isn't enough (for you) to invalidate your analysis. What level will? Are you going to keep digging your heels if price is hitting $15K? $20K?

This is not meant as an insult. I'm just curious what your contingency plan is. Every good trader has a contingency plan.


Some recent calls from me:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48694087
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51228813
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51551904

I didn't hesitate flipping positions when $6K was cut through like butter. That worked out quite well. I'm curious at what point you are willing to do the same, or if you'll just keep digging your heels in.

I'm betting on a 35-40% correction at some point, perhaps off the $13K area, or possibly even off this $11,300 level. I don't see strong enough signs yet of a major top though. I prefer not to predict what will happen. It's better to react to the market.

I stopped trying to call the top $5,000 ago. The top will be apparent in hindsight. In the meantime, the trend is your friend.

That's the thing about long term forecasts. You call it a bull market, I'm calling it a bounce. What you still fail to acknowledge is that whatever label you want to give it, it is following the pattern I said it would back in feb 2018.

So yes, I'm ok with being $1000 out or so on the final rollover, I'm ok with being a few weeks out with the timing. They are rounding errors. You need to zoom out.

You see...



I see...



It remind me of that old saying about not being able to see the wood for the trees.

Where are any of y'all predictions btw? what's the next top? will there be a correction... come on now share your insights

It's really easy to post image macros (that then become painfully, embarrassingly wrong) about someone else's forecast when you feel butthurt that number may not go up as you like. 

Not so easy to post consistently correct calls on long term market behaviour.

He's already waited this long (6 months since the bottom, 3 months since the bull market started). If he hasn't given up his idea yet why would he ever? Well his title says the bottom will be Feb 2021, so I suppose he'll keep this nonsense prediction going until then, at which point the current bull market may actually be over and bitcoin could be in the early stages of the next bear market by then haha.

what price does the market need to hit before you give up on $2500? let's say, hypothetically, that $3100s was the bottom and this is a bull market after all. are you gonna wait until a new ATH to capitulate?

So you're still sticking to your 9,5k then 2,5k speculation ? Even when we just reached 11200$ ?

Lol, not satisfied with that biting you in the ass enough the first time around? you make me laugh

you were told top was in at 16,5
you were told you would get 4
you were told you would get 9,5

if you'd sold at 16,5 bought at 4 thats a 4.15x profit
if you'd bought at 4 and sold at 9,5 thats another 2.375 profit
That's a 9.85x return so far.

When those 2,5 coins come in that will be another 3.8x which would give you a total return of just over 37x the amount of bitcoin you have if you had just held them the whole time. That's what you should be thinking if you believe BTC is bitcoin. Those are the moves you should be making.

Begin a bit out on the exact price, or the exact timing doesn't matter when you are following long term market trends.

Of course I just sold majority at 16,5 and left it at that. I don't think those 2,5 BTC will be worth buying by the time the market gets there.

Every day more people are seeing the light.

after the breakdown from $6k, everyone assumed that 2014-15 was the model since it looked to be turning into a multi-year bear market. and you know what happens when everyone thinks the same thing: the opposite happens!

it goes to show you that every bull/bear cycle is different. that's why i'm hesitant to assume the next bubble will keep playing out the same pattern too because once it becomes too obvious, the pattern will change as the market reacts to it. the next one might be the run-up where mass adoption follows. pretty much everyone assumes that the next bubble will be smaller than the last, % wise. they might be wrong.

The big difference between the 2018 bear market and the 2014/2015 one was that that previous one was the first time bitcoin had been down for YEARS! Between bitcoin first being traded to around the first halving there were many giant bubbles and huge crashes, the last market cycle during that time took like a year and a half from peak to peak I believe. But then comes 2014 and 2015 and a year and a half after the peak it was STILL at the bottom of the market! The previous cycle had surged to a new bubble peak by that time. Plus bitcoin wasn't close to being picked up by the wider public or the finance world yet, the way it is today, so it literally looked like bitcoin might just fade away (having gotten in in Nov 2013 myself, it certainly looked that way to me by 2015 - i kept faith until mid-2015 and then sold what i had left haha, the absolute worst time to give up! ;p).

Fast forward to 2018, and people who really get the market knew throughout the crash that it would return and that this was just another normal market cycle for bitcoin. The attention on bitcoin was huge even over the winter at the bottom of the market. There was never any real question of if it would surge back and enter a new bull market and expand bitcoin's adoption exponentially once again. 2014/2015 bear market and capitulation was like holy crap is bitcoin dead?! 2018 capitulation was like okay that was a rough ride but bitcoin finally finished bleeding now its time to accumulate.

Or ya know, more like just seeing the obvious rather than the blind faith you put in a bear market continuing despite a clear bull market. The bull market was easy to call when bitcoin broke out of the bottom of the market on April 1st. It's been pretty obvious since that happened the night of April 1st - that night it looked EXACTLY like what you'd expect of the start of a bull market. It was exactly the move I was looking for to know the bull market had started, I saw it like 30 minutes after it started and immediately knew the bull market had started because like I said, it was textbook end of market bottom and start of bull market. It was still possible that it could have been a fakeout at that point like 30 minutes into the bull market, though very unlikely, but we're almost 3 months in now. This thread is a complete joke now. I know most people like'd to take a few weeks or a month or two to be sure about it, but here we are almost 3 months in and you aren't saying okay now the evidence is overwhelming we've been in a bull market the past 3 months, instead you're saying that despite reality you're gonna insist this continuous surge over several months is somehow magically a bear market. Seriously, its just like, get real man. You apparently decided on the future of bitcoin's price movements and then when the market clearly showed you were wrong you just decided to ignore reality and stick to your wrong conclusion.

You are calling for a continued bear market against ALL evidence. That's blind faith.

It's starting to get interesting.

Try saying that to anyone who got in during the most recent bubble and they'll feel rather differently. 95-99% down in most alts is good enough. 83% for BTC does the job for most too.

I think what most people have been looking for is boredom, lack of attention and utter despair. Since so many more people arrived since 2013 that's not going to be same no matter what but I have seen plenty of sadness.

2013 could have been a one off and no one could be sure whether that was the case well into 2015/16. I don't believe that's the case any more.

Anyone who's been here since 2013 is too deformed to know what 'proper' capitulation should feel like any more.