Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 30. (Read 24373 times)

I think BSV *is* Bitcoin, but as you can see the market price indicates that everyone else doesn't agree. I think Bitcoin already imploded (when market dominance collapsed about jan/feb 2107). Its current price is just attachment/speculation.

Whilst market value is a great proxy for sentiment, I'm always mindful of that famous Ben Graham quote

So I think I will "weight" it out!

The speculative bubbles are always fun and exciting, but honestly the lows are the thing to watch. Every time BTC 'crashed' the bottom was higher than before. When I charted the bottoms, that's where I saw the s-curve of adoption starting to form.

Maybe it will do it again, and for everyone focused on $$$ profits that'll be great.

I think Bitcoin is so much more than flipping for fiat, especially with the rise of Metanet. Keep watching!

I'd disagree about it being sill to worry about this stuff. To me that sounds like taking a punt and hoping for the best. There is nothing inherently wrong with that, and it may well prove all my effort was for nothing - but each to their own

Since I got into bitcoin I've spent a lot of time seeking out information about it. How it works, how it's secured, what the potential consequences are for this change or that change. I've though about why I think it's valuable, why others might... the list goes on.

I think this gives you an edge in identifying what is going to work and what isn't. I know it sounds arrogant, but I like to think it was that attitude that helped me to recognise the potential of Bitcoin back in the day when everyone else that was equipped to grok it was just calling it out as a scam without really looking into it (see slashdot circa 2010-12)

IMHO there are several epiphanies that occur as you study bitcoin.

#1: Understanding the implications of the technology - how PoW and the consensus mechanism distributes trust, how cryptography is used to facilitate this. What the implication are with respect to digital cash without a trusted 3rd party. This is the first epiphany

#2: The incentive mechanism - how security is not black or whit but is a function of how much money/resource it takes to break something. Whilst the cost of defeating a security mechanism is greater than the value of the resource being protected one can consider that thing secure. This paradigm is leveraged by Bitcoin in conjunction with the cryptographic aspects above, to create a system that is "economically" secure. Indeed the very notion of 6 confirmations, is based on this fundamental concept. In reality 6 conf is way more than necessary for day to day (and in fact as the network gets bigger and harder to attack, zero conf is quite safe for low value tx).

#3: The legal status - this is most people's least favourite because it isn't a topic they are necessarily interested in, or comfortable with and because many that are into bitcoin arrived on the back of tearing down banks and the government. I have to admit, that side of things was a factor in my original attraction - I had thoughts of revolution. Now I understand I was wrong, I was naive. I understand now that as bad as the current system is, that Bitcoin will not prevail by attacking it head on. Instead, it will feed on that system like a parasite, until eventually it consumes the host. The way it will do that is by making itself immune to legislative attack. All of which is abhorrent to the ancaps, and libertarians that only see the simplistic "bitcoin is statist" rationale. It's much more subtle than that, bitcoin is not about destroying the state, it is in fact a mechanism by which the state can be held accountable. It does not allow secrecy. Secrecy is what gives those who are corrupt, the tools to be corrupt (state or otherwise).

#4: The Bitcoin network is not just a ledger - This was my most recent epiphany, and it comes from missing a big detail in #1. The SCRIPT language. Bitcoin is digital cash, that is intrinsically attached to the tx. The tx adjust the ledger, but a tx can do so much more - and this was available from day 1. The ability to leverage the distributed trust of the network to distribute data without reliance on a third party is the inevitable next step, and the payment for this is baked into the tx itself. This was possibly the most significant realisation.

So, I think it's important to understand those things, because I think that is what allows you to identify what Bitcoin is. It also then allows you to identify the flaws in coins that have tried to copy bitcoin but have changed things that compromise any of these fundamental properties.

The most difficult part is understanding yourself. It is inevitable that I have biases, and just recently I have spent a lot of time looking at how they may be affecting my judgement. Just today Daniel Krawisz posted a great link to a youtube video that covers this topic - clearly its using scientology as a means to get you onside, cos who would be hoodwinked by that, but that's the point he explains how the smartest people are. I spent a long time trying to think about the ways in which I could have been hoodwinked by BSV, its a tough job I tell you looking at your own beliefs, but I would encourage you to do so. Strip away the cognitive biases and figure out if its really Bitcoin that you are invested in. Or if you are emotionally invested in the culture, the community, the $$$ in your portfolio, your past, your ego.

I've said it before but selling BTC was the hardest thing I did (even then I was too afraid to dump it all, what if I was wrong, what a mug I would look, I should just HODL it always worked in the past etc etc) but it occurred to me that the pain I was feeling was cognitive dissonance. All of the HODL gang mentality was directly opposed to what my brain was telling me about what was going on with the refusal to increase blocksize, the apparent need for 'segwit', what the implications of LN were... they all made me feel sick... but I wanted to believe in Bitcoin.

Once I let go, that weight was lifted. Sure, it wasn't long before I had to do it all again with BCH/BSV split, but it was much easier the second time around as I hadn't got several years of time and effort invested.

I hope everyone does what is best for themselves, but whatever that is I hope it's because you believe in it fundamentally, and not because you just went with the crowd.

It's a great topic you got here, I just spend some time to read all of the post made here, I'm surprised to see that you think BSV should take over as the real bitcoin, or already did take over. Don't you think people will aband bitcoins or even crypto if bitcoin imploded and a fork coin of a fork coin out of bitcoin suddenly become the real bitcoin?

Most people who started buying bitcoins within the last 2 years don't even have that fork coin unless they bought it.
But great you still believe bitcoin "may "recover" in price"

That's not solved if only owners of top-class hardware can run a full node.

LN is "prepaid card 2.0", not banking 2.0. And the "2.0" in this case indicates that much less trust is required than with traditional solutions. LN is not magical, but it's also not the only technology that will lead to a better scaling Bitcoin.

The bold phrase is imo the most important one of your post A bear that's recognizing a bottom could be a strong bullish signal.

I get it, for you the strong bullish signal is meant for BCash and friends (do you support ABC or SV, by the way?). I tend to disagree, for me BTC (Core) is still the better try.

You will not need to wait for this that long anymore. In 2021 and latter we will most likely not see a sub $10000 Bitcoin ever again. Also such days in second half of 2020 will be extremely rare.

Are you sure Bitcoin's price trajectory is based on what you think the point is? If it's been moving in the wrong direction for years and yet the 2017 bubble still occurred, what does that tell you?


I think it's silly to worry about this stuff too much. Bitcoin's economic design is experimental. The same applies to everything forked from it. Nobody knows for sure what the best design choices are/were and what protocol (if any) will see mass adoption. We'll only know in hindsight. I'm just enjoying the ride.

It some point you have to stop and ask yourself - Hang on, something is not right here?

The problem is it is a hard question to ask, and a harder question to answer. If your preconceptions lead you to conclude that I just flipped because I'm a bcash shill and i'm pumping my bags then more power to you. I've been more the honest about my actions leading up to the BTC top, told you that I sold early (I know not to try and catch tops). Check my post history, I've been consistent and honest for literally years. All this time I've studied and learned about bitcoin, its history, the tech, the economics, the legal aspects.

For those still open minded to what is really going on, my decision (initially) to finally let go of BTC after all those years preaching HODL mantra was filled with anguish and uncertainty, because I was an 'early adopter' again. Swimming against the tide, but inside me I knew things didn't add up with SegWit & LN.Of course, in time they will say "I was lucky". They said the same about Bitcoin. Never once did they bother to inform themselves though. At least now it should be becoming clearer, the decision should be getting easier day by day, providing you are looking at information, as opposed to news and opinion.

So I hope now as things are unfolding that (much as at the start of this thread, honestly go back and read its priceless!) people realise I'm not entirely full of crap. I could be wrong sure, but at least I will have been intellectually honest about it.

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits. Yet BTC has been moving away from that for literally years. Fees, settlement, SegWit circumvention of PoW, all insidious changes that ostensibly seem to be for the better, but look at the big picture. Where is the utility driving the s-curve off adoption, if there is no underlying s-curve value, then what will springboard the next rally?

Don't get stung with dogmatic thinking, dogmatic thinking is what caused people to laugh at the notion BTC would ever again go below $10k.

Dogmatic thinking is what leads people to still think that LN is a magical scaling solution (it's not), that doesn't require custodial wallets (it does) and isn't just banking v2.0 (it is - it even said so in the white paper, but who reads those right?).

Dogmatic thinking is what makes people focus more on whether or not CSW is Satoshi, and less on what is Bitcoin.

If you are focusing on the former, you've been had, hoodwinked, distracted from the prize. The prize is valuable, so inevitably many will try to mislead you. The prize is Bitcoin, you just need to find it. I'm not going to tell you where to find it, you have to find it yourself. It's the only way.

Remember you are looking at the balance of probability, not beyond reasonable doubt. Perfect is the enemy of good. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. If someone tries to tell you, "aha, its not a duck because it has a lazy eye" ask yourself why they would deny the objectivity of the duck based on non duck criteria.

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves). Make sure you are on the right train leaving the station. They will all leave together, but some will run out of steam long before the others.

I dunno when you got into this Bitcoin thing but by around 2015 all major sources of information were compromised, there was a massive disinformation campaign on social media, and everything that was said, is everything you just said. That's just me and my tinfoil hat tho right

Consider whether your correlation of price to relevance is skewing your value assessment.

In 2010 it was easier because the information available was the whitepaper and a bunch of slashdot geniuses that told you it just wouldn't work. It was easier to cut through and find facts back then. Still just as hard to swim against the tide of popular opinion. But thats where the opportunity is, when you have more information than everyone else.

Now it's a bit more complicated because the people that said it wouldn't work, took over the project and sold you something else, and now you think that will work. They are crypto wizards so they can be trusted.

I'm still here with my "antiquated" 2010 outlook that Bitcoin works. It always worked. Nothing has changed.

Remember this thread well.

ugh not the BCH argument again. How long will people still continue to hold a candle for that DOA coin. On-chain scaling of a decentralized currency is not possible, unless the plan is to keep that currency very limited or not decentralized at all. 32mb, 128mb, 1gb blocks, none of those come close to what say Visa can do and it would end up no different than Visa anyway because it would be highly centralized. So great, the BCH/BSV crowd is out to remake Visa but not as efficient and where the consumer has to directly pay the fees on top of the price which already includes credit card fees prices built into it. Sounds like the worst idea ever.

Sorry but "A simple network, all on chain, massive scale" is a contradictory statement. So while you have offshoots of offshoots of Bitcoin chasing that fantasy, we have real Bitcoin actually moving towards massively scalable technology that is usable by the whole world, while staying true to the decentralized open public money concept at the core of Bitcoin. By the way a simple network with massive scale was never the intention of Bitcoin. Decentralized open secure p2p money was the intention of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still going after that. Altcoins like BCH/BSV which are only alive because they include the "Bitcoin" brand name immediately abandoned the central purpose of Bitcoin when they were created.

Price wise, I'm 50/50 on if Bitcoin will break $3000 during this bottoming out its going through now. If it does I could see it dropping down to around $2500, so basically right around your prediction, and it wouldn't surprise me if it does break $3k. But it also wouldn't surprise me at all if the $3100 it hit in December ends up being the low from here on out. Either way things are looking great as a Bitcoin investor right now. While the BCH/BSV people are just praying their coins don't die out into irrelevance before the next BTC boom.

Even more bewildering when you look at the charts

So here we are a year later. We can reflect and see that a huge 11-month wedge that closed mid-november that showed support was around $6300. A break up at that point could have suggested that BTC uptrend would resume, we saw a break down though. Which confirms bearish outlook.

I think we now enter a year of confused sideways trading, gradually sliding downwards - my $2483 bottom call still in place.

However the caveat to all if this is that $2483 is the utility value of *Bitcoin*. The price of BTC is decoupling from the value of Bitcoin as it diverges in functionality.

The utility of BTC has declined, it is no longer Digital cash, it has not scaled to meet future demand. It is lost. The majority still HODLing are just speculating. As the speculators leave the price declines, and the only thing that would stop this, is when the price finally meets the utility value. In the past that utility value has caught the price dip, and bolstered it. As price followed the s-curve, this renewed interest from speculators, and the mania phase would repeat.

The $2483 utility value is for BSV. We are at that moment back in ~2010 when you found out some guy had invented digital cash, and it blew your mind. Everyone on slashdot thought you were an idiot, but it was so cheap... well, no harm in buying a few... That is happening now. BSV is grossly underpriced, the same way Bitcoin was back in the day. The whole of the internet, that is much smarter than you, is telling you that it's a scam and won't work, just like they said about Bitcoin back in the day. Which is ironic, because it is Bitcoin, from back in the day!

For anyone that cares about fundamentals, the detail of why BTC utility has been compromised. I would advise taking a long hard look at the history of Bitcoin, go back to old forum posts here and see how things were. Look at it's original design. Look at some of the disputes along the way about how it should be developed. Fixing what was broke and scaling was all that was needed, the design was great. Core took a different road, changing the fundamental design with segwit (ostensibly to scale) and introducing the notion of second layer LN being necessary (ahh that was what segwit was for). BCH fork was to save the chain so som guys could to stick to original plan (although now it seems clear that not everyone had the same idea what that was!). Now BSV continue to try and do the Bitcoin described in the white paper - the very same one that got me so hype back in the day. Isn't it odd that I have the same belief in bitcoin (P2P digital cash) as I did back then. A simple network, all on chain, massive scale. 10 years of consistency.... compare that to the flip flopping you see elsewhere....

The scam, is that people are still trying to tell you BTC is Bitcoin. Anyone that says otherwise is labelled as a lunatic, or a shill, or worse. Most couldn't tell an op code from a node

This is fair warning, BTC may "recover" in price, but it will never fulfil the potential it had when it was Bitcoin. The mantle has been passed. In that respect my $560k price target still applies we've just been set back about 5 years. Thats ok I'm patient.

It seems that account was hacked and latter was probably banned. Since it was not logged in from April.  Maybe he made new account but might not tell us about it

Hey BTC-Graphicdesigns! 'member this?

I 'member.

Hey Torque, 'member this?

I 'member.

That's easy, we just need to watch a few episodes of "Keeping up with the Kard@#$shians" 

On a serious note, whats the next support level for BTC price? Any predictions?

It's a bit like watching your previously kindly grandfather bleach what's left of his hair blond, dump his wife, get a Brazilian and take up a new career as a camgirl on Chaturbate. Bewildering and a little melancholic as you stand back and watch it play out. 

Wait, a shitcoin flipped another shitcoin? Oh snap, get CNBC on the line pronto!


Lololdelusionalollolol

I have come to admit, I may be wrong.

I honestly thought there would be a last hurrah for bitcoin, but the way things are going at the moment, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that could be the case.

The way the price has broken down doesn't fit properly with the overall long term projection any more- looks like some other external factor is in play here. Maybe its sell off with the hash war, or maybe its because people are realising BTC isn't what it once was.

On the bright side, I'm always wrong, so maybe I'm wrong about this too and its just my "capitulation" that precedes the next run up.

Wild times. Oh, and BSV just flipped ABC for anyone not paying attention. Whodathunkit?

Imagine when it flips BTC. (I know many of you can't, but for those that can, think about it.... 30:1 right now....)

Well since Satoshi vision is that Bitcoin and Monero and few more crypto have a big flaw. And that he will reveal that flaw at end of 2019 could bring us bottom at that time and not more then a year latter.

I did it months ago, when they first split. I'm not doing it because I think BCH will have a better fiat price than BTC in the short run. Neither do I expect Bitcoin SV to be more than ABC for a little while yet. I flipped based on the fundamentals.

The fundamentals are what drive the s-curve of adoption - the s-curve marks market bottoms. The speculative run-ups on top of this are fun, but in the end will be dwarfed by the s-curve.

If your coin has no fundamentals, it has no s-curve. BTC is dead man walking segwit broke it. ABC have just shot themselves in both feet. First with OP_CDSV and now PoS hybrid. Bitcoin is secure / economically sound / legal. If you break any of these things you break Bitcoin.

Remember I am not all in SV because of CSW. Just like I wasn't all in BCH because of ver. I wasn't all-in BTC back in the day because of Andresen et al. The obsession with celebrity in Bitcoin is a red herring. Be that loving or hating any individual, group, organisation. I fell foul of this with block stream, I was just lucky that the fundamentals were aligned.

It' should be about the Bitcoin phenomenon described in the white paper. Accumulated PoW defines which chain is the correct out of the valid chains. SV is the only valid chain wrt to the fundamentals that I understand make up Bitcoin. YMMV.

My understanding has developed through literally years of studying it, and I'm sure that I don't know the half of it - but I know more than many. What I do know leads me to make the decisions I make. If I learn new info that changes my understanding, then I change my behaviour. Holding BTC because the prevailing wisdom at the time was always "hold" only remains good advice, if BTC doesn't change. Segwit changed it. Retaining Block size cap changed it. LN changes it. How bastardised do people want BTC to become before they re-evaluate their position? *shrugs*

Same happened with BCH. ABC *changes* it from dumb cash, to specifically designed to process contracts which make it legally a different thing.

We've exhausted some of the shorts, if that was the sole cause of us falling but theres a few elements in play like something as simple as the holidays this week I think that could collect a few sellers together and cease normal activities for a few days perhaps.
The BCH split had an unexpected side effect on BTC also, catching people off guard was enough for it to lose that support level so that figures.

To regain 9500 would mean passing that previous good support level, its then a ceiling in effect as we cross it from below like broken ice; its harder to get out then fall in.    We can go to 9500 just not estimating it as especially easy

Well they do say 'buy when theres blood on the streets', that maximum peak level to doubts.    'dont get shot and add your own' would maybe be the small print to that maxim