Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 28. (Read 24307 times)

Not quite $9.5k but close enough...

Just a pullback right? BTFD right? Go on, I dare you. BTC is the real Bitcoin what are you afraid of? ;p



In b4 “You know nothin’ sgbett”

...drum roll...

I was away for a while, I like to poke the (code)bear from time to time he's ever so worried!

This is the best place to find out what's going on in the noggins of BTC die hards.

UnDerDoG81 you seem more open to discussion so you might be interested in where I explained my thinking on that.

To recap, the bigger the market (cap/participant count) the longer the cycle takes to play out. I scaled time based on how long it took for the first bounce (about 2.8x longer) and projected the recoveries based on that.

To get a rough idea why I took this approach look at how quick the cycle happened in the run up to $32 and the grind down, compared to the run up to >$1000 and subsequent grind down. They all follow the same basic pattern.

I'm not doing TA i'm doing crowd/market psychology. You can see the same thing play out in countless alt coin charts. The price is the 'average' of sentiment, a larger crowd has much larger inertia with bigger moves, over longer time. That's my take anyway.

gentlamand - BTC @ $500 breaks all patterns, I can't see that unless something *real bad* happens. If it doeas, then whatever it is will probably be obvious in hindsight.

Was this your first complete cycle?

My second and though it's been boring there was nothing remotely worrying to me. If I had been ludicrous enough to arrive and buy $3 XRP then I'd feel very differently and I'm sure many people do. If you've seen it once the second time around seems more obvious and less alarming.

It would take sub $500 BTC to really get me hot under the collar. A monster poo is possible but the inability to believe it won't happen is also a thing.

Fact of the matter is that no matter what, this time around many, many, many more people will be watching closely for signs of life. In 2015 most had buggered off and moved on. Not so this time.

Either I'm blind or surfing on mobile is clunkier than I already know but couldn't locate the 2021 new 2k++ priceline on Mt Gox.

Nevertheless, strange that I am somewhat in agreement that what everyone has been calling the crypto winter isn't over yet. Because really, I've been waiting for old scenarios to play out and since we're all believers of cycles, I'm loathe to believe that this cycle ended so soon without even really making me that worried.

Need to see every Tom Lee purged before I believe it's over;)

So let's see, insults, ignoring historical precedent, showing a chart with analysis that in no way matches up with what is happening now showing just how badly off your predictions are, and assuming my join date is when i got into bitcoin...except thats off by 4 years. So good job, wrong on all accounts! Like I said, a BSV altcoiner desperately hoping for a bitcoin crash so his altcoin will magically become bitcoin. And that chart....I mean really, that's the worst analysis of a chart I've seen in my life dude. That wouldn't fool anyone for even a second. If you're gonna post a chart at least make it somewhat believable. A year ago your chart would have made sense, now it just looks like you're losing it and getting desperate. I mean your chart is correct, except the "you are here" sign you must have wrote a year ago. Update it to show "you are here" at the far right just off the graph and you're starting to get the hang of it dude. I suppose it'll be fun to see how long you insist we're still in a bear market as the bull market continues. You're clearly doubling down on that nonsense, will you continue on for weeks? months? years? Well yeah I guess you will be calling for the bottom for another two years since your title says 2021, that's gonna be a rough two years for you to watch probably about an entire bull market occur while saying the bull market never started and we're still in a bear market the entire time. good luck tho haah

Imagine being on the Craig Wright end of the spectrum!


There’s more skepticism and disbelief this time. I certainly didn’t expect a bull market to begin this early and I’m cautiously waiting a couple months longer to see where support holds before declaring the bear over for good.

But you’ve got to admit, the monthly trend looks strong. After living through 2015 I know better than to get overconfident as a Bitcoin bear.

sgbett sent money to mt gox when it was clear it was collapsing in the hopes of getting some cheap btc. He was a moron then and he's still a moron, going offtrack from bitcoin to bsv is just beyond stupid.

Only difference in this chart is, from the ATH to the point "You are here" was in a timespan of 6 months. This time already 1,5 years passed. I don´t think we will go in a Crypto winter for the coming 3 years. Halving is next year.

Wtf do you guys support that stupid shitcoin bitcoin cash anyway? Nobody gaf about it, Roger Ver is a douche and it will be left in the dust only matter of time. A fork of this shitcoin (bsv) overtaking bitcoin arfkm? uh, yeah that's gonna happen.
If this guy isn't on meth or coke in this interview I'd be shocked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V36uuGFo64E

Oh this is you sgbett didn't know you still come to the speculation subforum here. I stopped posting here when segwit happened.

Ooh, lets take a look at forum sentiment right around mid may 2014....



"the bear market is over, UP UP UP"

read the entire thread you wing-ding its got nothing to do with me wanting BSV to overtake bitcoin, and everything to do with predicting market behaviour based on historical precedent. pay attention to where I called the top, the initial rebound, the second bottom, the latest rally and now the long slide. You can't see it, I get it.

"This has literally never happened", duh, how about like last time...



...but your join date suggests you simply aren't aware of the history, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that.

However putting the whole thing down to "You're a BSVer" is dumb. It's not reasoning it's the exact opposite. I don't tell you what I want the charts to do, I tell you what I think they are going to do. You can check my post history, I always have.

Ah i see, BSV. That's all you had to say. You're a BSVer. I couldn't understand why in the world you think a second crypto winter would start a month and a half after the last one ended and the bull market just started. This has literally never happened and there is nothing remotely pointing to it, everything points to the exact opposite. But you think BSV, which is dying, is gonna overtake Bitcoin. This explains your mad predictions.

So I was musing the chart this morning - as you can see upthread I was expecting recovery to $9500 before the final leg down that would be necessary to find the new "base-utility price" with all the speculative value shaken out. An idea that I explained back in 2014.

The sell off at 8.5k is the second time the BTC recovery has failed to meet my expected price target - the first time was when I suggested the initial bounce would be ~16k but instead it failed to breach ~12k late feb and then again early march.

So it got me pondering, and I'll be honest BTC HODLers aint gonna like it, and I think the main reason for that is because its looking increasingly more likely.

So after the final grind down, whats happened in the past is that the ever increasing base-utility price has ultimately arrested the "winter" decline, and is the catalyst for the next speculative run-up.

However, I think in the last few years the utility value of BTC has not increased, and has in fact declined. The focus has quite clearly been on LN and/or Liquid. Using BTC on chain is an after thought, and in fact is actively discouraged by design choices around block size limit and the need to further the idea that tx should happen off chain using LN.

The last run up came off around $3-4k mark, so let's assume that the "utility" value of BTC was around that mark. Possibly a bit more as speculation also causes assets to be undervalued in the bear markets.

It seems conceivable to me that the recent shortfall in recovery of BTC price could be accounted for by declining base utility value. So when it only reached 12 instead of 16k thats a 4k shortfall. Then again yesterday, stalling at 8k instead of running up to 9.5k.

Now i'm not suggesting that utility value accounts for all of that shortfall, just that it is a factor in the price, and the price is a feedback into speculative price action.

Now if we take that idea further, this is where it gets really nasty. If this reversal does lead to a proper crypto winter with an expected slide back down to, say, $2500 and BTC's utility value continues to erode, then that means that there is no base-price increase to trigger the next speculative run up.

I'll leave you all to digest the potential implications.

I'm still "long" BTC via some holdings in an ETF (XBT Provider), because I understand risk. I'm way less long than I was when BTC was $20k though.

I'm also still massively bullish on Bitcoin, just that for me, that is BSV. $560k incoming

There was never any credibility. I am incredible

Hope you all have a plan!

Haha yes when i saw gigameg i was like wtf

I think I'm more appalled that someone other than Calvin has used the word 'gigameg'. That's a fine demonstration of utterly mindless parroting if ever there was one.

Whatever credibility there once was has now officially departed the building.

As for the price action, who knows? It all seems a little silly at present.

goodlord sgbett are you still trying to say we're in a bear market. That ship has long since sailed dude. You did a good job calling the top, but apparently you can't see a bottom when it is staring you in the face for months on end and then leaves you for good. Bitcoin doesn't just randomly break into a bull market after a full bear market and a several month bottoming out phase, only to then sink back into a bear market. Has literally never happened.

It is unbelievable that anyone is still harping on about a bear market 6 weeks into the bull market and 5 months after bitcoin hit its bottom, with it now over double the bottom price.

Remember - it goes back up to ~$9500 first