Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 27. (Read 24373 times)

I understand exactly why people dislike him, and I understand why they think that is a rational position.

He is attacking every coin that isn't Bitcoin, because they are not Bitcoin. That's a massive threat to their "money".

However what CSW understands is that Bitcoin is not about p2p cash for money's sake alone. Establishing Bitcoin as valuable is just the bootstrapping phase, p2p cash is the incentive to get people to value it.

Bitcoin is not just a p2p cash network, but it is a global computer, network, computation, storage (it was all there in v0.1 for those that refuse to accept this).

It is run by miners, paid for by bitcoin, secured by bitcoin. All of this is only possible if bitcoin is *worth* something.

When you see it, it is glorious. It is rational.

your words...

"once we attain enough knowledge, and wisdom about human psychology, we too will realize that CSW = Satoshi"

read like a claim, but perhaps I misunderstood. I'll try and explain a bit better.

I said that for people with less information (ie those outside the crypto space, as opposed to people like you or I) its inevitable that they will look to an authority for guidance. That's what people tend to do. I'm simplifying of course, its a complicated topic. Here's some research on the subject .

None of this rules out the chance I am wrong about this type of behaviour, but if we assume its a fair characterisation then we start to reason things.

If people have low epestimic authority, then this predicts that they will benefit greatly from information they receive from someone they perceive to have high epestimic authority. That is to say, they will use this person as a proxy. What better proxy than "Satoshi Nakamoto" inventor of bitcoin!?

So, as I tried to explain before - regardless of whether he is or isn't, any firm resolution to that question is likely to have an outsize effect on the large majority of folk that are not in the space. It's probably mainstream media newsworthy. A "yes he is" would draw some pretty serious positive attention to BSV. A "no he isn't" would quite likely have a very different effect!

So, in reality, what you seemed to be saying was the opposite of what it most likely when it comes to all you guys that have been around a while (and seen a few pixels in your time). OG crypto guys are much more likely to benefit more from experimentally based information, because you are more likely to reject contrary information, as you have a high self-ascribed epestimic authority. (It's no coincidence that me having very close connections with a lot of key BSV folk, and understanding the work being done first hand, has had the influence it has - given your characterisation of me "glorifying my knowledge"

Yes, I too have seen a few pixels and as such have a high level of self-ascribed epestimic authority. I'm ok with that, knowing that about myself helps me be aware of the pitfalls it might create.

What it does help me to understand is that I'm unlikely to change your opinion directly, just by arguing about why he is, or why BSV is the real Bitcoin yada yada (though I might tell you thats what I think from time to time). I understand all too well the difficulty in having foundational understanding shaken and turned on its head. For people like yourselves, it seems likely that the only thing that could be of benefit to you is direct experience.

Beleive it or not, I'm not here to shill BSV and pump it so I can sell for gainz. I'm here because I think Bitcoin will change the world for the better, and I see that more clearly than ever now. I want you all to be part of it (I want everyone to be part of it!).

It seems that people are not happy with BSV, and I can understand that. You think BTC is Bitcoin, and BSV is some pretender. I felt exactly the same about segwit. I felt exactly the same about LN. Same story, different cast.

I was furious at Core for what they did. Outraged. Then as time went on, I started to realise there was nothing I could do, I just had to accept that was where it was going and hope for the best, I was in despair. I became morose. I feel the whole project was going to fail nothing could be done. (Check my activity, I all but gave up on the boards, from once being a regular).

The BCH fork was Both a curse and a blessing. On the one hand I could see that it was preserving the chain, but on the other hand - it was a minority fork, there were so many threats, so many people were against it. To go with BCH was to give up my long held belief in Bitcoin above all else. It was the most distressing and difficult decision I had to make.

So I know full well the dilemma that each and every BTC holder is facing. I know there is a full spectrum of opinion, im at one end whilst some are still convinced of the folly of anything other than BTC.

It was easier the second time round with BCH/BSV split -  I knew more than ever about protocol, design implications, development roadmaps and by now I'd become accustomed to being "the underdog". It seemed clear to me that arguments people were making against BSV were emotional - they felt threatened - and often centred around a dislike of CSW. That didn't seem logical, and made me all the more curious to find out what was really going on.

One of the great things about being the underdog... you've already "lost" so you are not afraid of having anything take away. Today I'm more calm about the future of Bitcoin than I have ever been. Could I be proven wrong again? Absolutely, and if I am I hope I have the good grace, and mental fortitude to accept that and act accordingly.

I wish you all the best of luck. Bitcoin isn't about "making money" (in a trading sense) - it already *is* money - it's become clear to me now what its real purpose was all along. It's about making a better world. I encourage all of you to honestly look at what is going on with metanet, and what this means for the future of mankind. If you all *really* dont care who satoshi is, then you equally should care about Craig. Look at the tech.

I don't want you to sell your BTC and buy BSV. I don't care what you are holding. I just want you to know about what BSV is doing, because it feels like 2010 all over again and you guys that beleived in bitcoin back then, deserve the first chance to believe in it all over again.

those coins will be moved someday, but probably not by satoshi. there was a great article about this: Who Will Steal Satoshi's Bitcoins?


maybe, although i'm sure he would have assumed there would be few users early on. i rather think he viewed the coins he mined as donations. as he said once---

I guess I misunderstood what you were trying to say here:


So enlighten me, what was your point exactly? Why are you projecting these ideas about "how people are likely to be affected" and how people are using CSW "as a proxy for figuring stuff out themselves?"


What was I trying to claim?

I was just implying your long-winded post contained nothing but useless anecdotes glorifying your own knowledge and ability to read people. Just an empty post saying nothing, sort of like everything CSW publishes. Somehow it was supposed to justify how "everyone in BSV knows he is satoshi" and, of course you would say that, because it's obviously an incredibly important point for BSV supporters.

I don't give a shit who Satoshi is. Maybe it's just not that important to Bitcoiners.

CSW keep doing threats not only against bitcoin, but against the entire cryptospace. So the general dislike for him is not that irrational as you believe.

Where's the fraud? how much of your money has he taken? I can tell you he hasn't had a penny from me.


Aye, he stepped away. What if he came back? Why would he do that?

I am glad it amuses you


I've said nothing of human psychology WRT wisdom about human psychology telling me who is Satoshi. Rather awkward, given what you are trying to claim that would mean if I had.

His big fat stash makes him relevant even though there's never been the slightest indication it's ever going to move.

Other than that the world has moved beyond him and that's precisely what his intention was I reckon. I'm sure he would've preferred to have wound up with vastly less coin too. Each one mined by him was a failure of his project.

Obviously not. For sgbett, once we attain enough knowledge, and wisdom about human psychology, we too will realize that CSW = Satoshi. And that seems incredibly important to his viewpoint despite his protests that it's Bitcoin proponents who are making it all about CSW.

I agree with you, who cares about Satoshi? He gave the world a gift and disappeared. Trying to fit the protocol to "his vision" is beyond stupid. What if his vision was short-sighted and wrong? What if users want something else? What if his code sucks? Bitcoin = the Bitcoin network. Its users and the changes they implement are much more important than Satoshi. Satoshi became irrelevant many years ago.

bitcoin will crash under 2000 usd per btc this year or next year

Nothing is funnier than sgbett not only not being able to see a bull market two months after it started (that'd be like trying to argue we were still in a bull market in feb 2018 after the price crashed to $6k haha) but also being conned into the whole bsv nonsense!

Some people cant let go of a bull market, it seems sgbett cant let go of a bear market. This thread is fun to come to for laughs.

But if he really is not Satoshi, then wouldn't that be fraud commited to scam the people into believing that "Bitcoin Cash SV is Satoshi's real vision, and therefore the real Bitcoin"?

Plus don't you believe that the community should move on from "Satoshi"? He already left.

I couldn't tell you there's no BSV community as such - people hold different beliefs. I think most people in BSV are receptive to the idea that he is, but then most would probably also tell you that it's not a big deal to them anyway. In particular the people building out services on top of BSV. They seem more concerned with stability of the protocol.

For those with reservations, that more often centres around what craig says and does, and how that reflects on BSV. Some were uncomfortable with his approach. I often wondered why he did things the way he does, but as time has gone on I think I've come to understand that better too. One of the most useful things I found throughout the history of bitcoin is being deeply embedded in "community". Information is useful. (in particular information asymmetry can be very useful!)

I think proof (or not) of Craig being satoshi, is likely to have much more of an effect on people who have less of an understanding of Bitcoin, blockchain, math, crypto in general, the history, the people etc that kind of information is much harder to gather and takes years of learning.

I'm not saying that "if you grok bitcoin then you think CSW is SN, and if you don't think CSW is SN you don't understand bitcoin". Far from it, i'm saying that people with lesser of an involvement with the space, and thus less information, will probably put more stock in whether or not he is/isn't as a proxy for figuring stuff out themselves. Thats not an inherently good/bad thing, just an observation on how I think human psychology works. Technically its the "appeal to authority" fallacy - if used to try and justify why BSV is Bitcoin - but I wouldn't go there!

I do grok the inner workings, ask me about script, opcodes, client optimisation for scaling, economic incentives, probability functions, attack vectors etc etc those are the things that I'm interested in and the thing that the SV team seam to be doing in a way that makes sense to me. The way core handled those things over the years would often make me feel uncomfortable. But I had much less of an understanding of the internals, so whilst it felt like they were going about things wrong I couldn't put my finger specifically on it. With the benefit hindsight, and the knowledge I have now, it's much clearer.

I'm sorry if that reads like the drama/debate you were trying to avoid. It's not intended to be, it's intended to be a comprehensive and honest answer to the question.

tl;dr everyone in BSV knows he is satoshi.

Once you know something, you don't really worry about what other people believe.

Hi sgbett, I'm asking this out of real curiosity, not to start any social drama mud-slinging debate, but does the whole Bitcoin Cash SV community truly believe that Craig Wright is Satoshi? Or are there some people who have their reservations about it?

Where did you read it, Greg maxwell blog post? Roger Ver’s twitter feed? Check your sources.

In fact, why not check the actual source... https://github.com/bitcoin-sv/bitcoin-sv

(I could save you the time and tell you there is no such code, but that would mean nothing I guess)

I understand how uncomfortable it is to accept BTC is not *the* Bitcoin anymore, don’t forget I was here way before many of you and had spent years believing the same thing you all hold on to. I know how hard it was to let go. I can assure you that once you find bitcoin again and the uncomfortable feeling will go away.

Your irrational dislike of CSW will undo you. Maybe not everything is about him. Crazy thought, I know.

BSV have built-in code that allows governments to freeze and confiscate coins from anyone. I read this while researching about their project.

In this way, tyrannical governments can simply confiscate coins from its citizens to pay debts to international banks. Debts which they contract without asking their taxpayers about it. They can simply turn crypto illegal and confiscate the assets from the "criminals" which are holding it.

You dont live in the third world, you dont know what socialism looks like. Do you really think a coin that can be confiscated will serve as a good store of value? I do not. And I doubt such coin will free people from modern slavery. Most likely it will go in the opposite direction, as CW dont cease to show up, with his discourse about doing evil just for the sake of it.

Seems like there is so much emotion clouding your vision, that you can't even see what is being spelled out! Now, where have I seen that phenomenon before.

There are two schools of thought:

One is look at the broad strokes, and see the general pattern in order that you can understand the big picture.
The other is nit pick every tiny detail that does not support your preconceptions, and in doing so fail to see the truth in front of your nose.

There is 19 pages of comments here, during which I lay out exactly what is going to happen, with revisions as new information arises. A few OG's recognising the same patterns of behaviour on the forum, which inevitably correlates to the wider psychology of the crowd, which inevitably plays out in the market moves you keep seeing (there is a reason it looks like a fractal).

Plenty of people jeering at the 16500 top call, which looked good....


Just to remind you exactly of the timescale involved - please do feel free to trawl my post history to see whether I had made any other calls that the top was in... (I hadn't, because it wasn't)



Then there was the $1000 bet that it wouldn't go below $10k. Still waiting to be paid for that one, I also predicted that he wouldn't pay. It's like I have a crystal ball

Plenty of people jeering because I dared to suggest that the correction would run as deep as $4k.


Then there was this....


In Nov 2018 I re-evaluated the major market trend that I'd forecast back in feb of that year. I said there would be an upswing to ~9500 which would be sometime around Q1-2 2019 and that this would precede the actual bear market.

Still so much anger and denial, people so focused on hatred for BCH and later BSV that they can't see straight. People still trapped by their emotions.


No BCH, No BTC, no altcoins. Just BSV.

Maybe I am irrational? Maybe I've been paying attention? Maybe this is just another thing I have predicted wrong

Not that I care about any of this prediction, it's probable junk like all others, but A seven thousand dollar shortfall is close enough? By that level of thinking Craigycoin is Bitcoiny enough too which explains plenty.

Dare us? I dare you not to hold Bitcoin. But of course, it's easy to lie and say "I don't HODL Bitcoin". Roger Ver holds Bitcoin. He can't take the risk of making the mistake of HODLING everything in Bitcoin Cash, but I dare say that he can risk HODLING everything in Bitcoin.

Buy the dip!

Time will tell. I remember feeling similar confidence as a bear in November 2015. I lost a lot of coins convincing myself it was just a bull trap. You may be right, but I prefer to sit on the fence this time around until resumption of the 2018 bear market is more obvious.