Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 29. (Read 24307 times)

cause and effect.. then it was gox ... this time, finex...

2483 call still in place... people still think it’s not possible

Why thank you. A sane reply!

Yes indeed, and to everyone sticking with BTC - GLHF!

I'm curious how you see the fee market playing out (I assume here) with a limited block size? What kind of dynamic do you see unfolding with on-chain vs off-chain and how that might play into the incentives for miners to continue mining. (The context for that being that I think we are probably agreed that fees need to replace reward, so how doeas that happen in a limited block/higher fee scenario - have you run any numbers on possible values?)

Do you see a problem with the BSV model of high-volume/low-margin? or are you more concerned about consequences of massive blocks? (if so which?)

I'm not too worried about BSV. To each his own. I'm all for different coins pursuing different scaling methods. Why not?

At heart, I have a hoarding goldbug type mentality so I really appreciate Bitcoin's approach to scaling. The idea of a hard cap on supply is already a risky proposition (in terms of miner incentive) so I'm glad we have the fee market to bolster miner revenue. It lessens the likelihood we'll ever have to dilute the supply.

So much anger and desperation. Doesn’t really portray confidence. In fact it looks like fear and insecurity.

Keep watching, BSV is doing things you can’t even comprehend, because you still haven’t even figured out the p2p cash bit. All you can see is the exchange rate. The twitter drama. The hubris.

2gigameg blocks is really gonna tweak that vein in your heads.

Best of all you don’t even have the slightest idea *why* it’s necessary, because you haven’t paid attention to anything.

imagine banking on craig wright's fork and having all the exchanges delist your coin. ouch! that was always the biggest market risk for BSV supporters---the guy is/was a huge liability.

i'm not thrilled with bitcoin's slow and unwieldy consensus process but like gentlemand said..... this is what happens when you try to buck consensus.

For better or worse, almost certainly worse, I don't think it's going anywhere. They're going to keep their sham twitching as a matter of pride.

Expect some new piece of shit exchanges to pop up where the volume is magically enormous because that's what they programmed into their ZX Spectrum. Or rather they paid to have programmed because Craigy can't do it.

It's been glorious to watch all the same.

In time they'll be forgotten cocksuckers like all the other dead bodies left behind, but it'll be yet another example of what happens when you try to buck consensus rather than work with it. How many times does it need to happen before it being a bad idea sinks in?

Don't go down with the sinking ship.

LN is optional. However, the more people using it to buy coffee, the better for those using the main chain.

You said it was optional, and that p2p fees were the lowest ever. Which is it?


lolwut

You mean "BTC is the real bitcoin", that one?

U emotional, bro?

Do u even Lightning, bro? I suppose not. Too busy P2P "transactioning" with exactly no one on the BSV chain.  

And exchange whales colluding and HF wash trading to run up BTC transaction fees doesn't exactly represent true P2P merchant transactions in my book.   But you can go on believing whatever delusion you want.

U mad bro?

Hat Gang in the house!


I know I called the bottom, and here we are its going up.

Like any sane person should I re-evaluate my beliefs based on new information. It will continue to go up, but I realise now that this isn't the next run up, it's a suckers rally. Hence why I corrected my former post.

Torque - you mad bro? You seem mad, when you say stuff like


I gotta wonder which coin you are looking at!

My my you sound so.... unsure now.  

I'm betting you're wrong.

But of course you do, BSV-bias shill.

Wrong again, actually LN is growing and thriving like mad. BTC chain fully intact and secure. Quit spreading lies and disinformation.

LN is completely optional, you can still p2p digital cash to anyone and the transaction fees are lowest they've ever been.

Exactly  

Oh I don't doubt this could go all the way to 10k, but this not a new run-up, and I don't think that was really the bottom.

Look back to Nov 2018 when I posted this chart...



It's a little over simplified but is a broad representation of whats to come.

We'll track back up to around 9.5 but it won't stick and we'll need to come all the way back down to consolidate in the low 3s and then probably even lower as the last hopefuls are shaken out. Thats when you get your $2500 bottom.

From their it's anyone's guess what will happen, but you can guess I've got my very own sponsored by BSV-Bias outlook

So the BTC chain is still crippled. LN is a dead end, SW was built purely for LN. So the only thing left is side chains.

Everyone wanted side chains when they signed up for bitcoin right? Nobody wanted p2p digital cash. I remember It as clear as... oh wait.

Of course they didn't. We all used to think Bitcoin it was great (~2013 the golden era, survived the $32 crash, new ATH, adoption on the up companies taking it seriously!). You would show your mates in the pub, check it out download this wallet i'll send you some BTC, you'd ping it over and it would be ther in a jiffy and you'd say "no banks" and they'd be like. woah!

Then everyone started doing it, and like any good company that has exploding tech that is going to take over the world The Bitcoin Core team got together and planned for a capacity upgrade in plenty of time for... oh no, whats that, we can't scale? really because you sai... and then there were more reasons and fear, and Blockstream came, and there were Hong Kong meetings and they baited with 2-4-8 and then switched to SWSF&LN. Be done in 18 months they said, pinky swear.

Ah happy times when I was a rube. I remember when Josh at BFL got me like that, 2 weeks they said. By the time it got here (over a year late) hash rate has exploded so much that my 15BTC miner managed to get 2 BTC in the 6 months I ran it, before it became a door stop. Did I learn!? Hell no, there is bitcoins to be mined, these miners are waaaaay better. Rinse and repeat, only this time with a refund. Broke even on that. Try a different company... KNC miner told me yeah, no worries we got your miner right here... they didn't, lucky for me BTC was tanking, I got a refund... in BTC.

For others it was Trendon shavers BTCST. (By now I wasn't having any of it). So yeah the block stream stitch up had alarm bells all over it.

Anyway people leverage other people's greed as a means to control them. By the time 2021 rolls around and you've been through your second year of crypto winter, you'll believe anything that you are told by the Bitcoin wizards, if it sounds like it might make your BTC go back up. I mean look how little it took to convince people LN was the answer, despite all the warnings... the white paper explicitly told you it was a custodial network, that it needed massive blocks (which core were never willing to do). That it introduced a bunch of counterparts risk. People. Wanted. To. Beleive.

But WTF do I know.

GLHF!

OP did a good job calling near the top and how are it would fall back in 2017. But obviously way off the mark on the newer bottom call. By Feb 2021 the price will probably be 10x that $2483 prediction.

Glad to see we are out of the bottom now and a few days into the new bull run!

Indeed, being Bitcoin might not be enough to save it! Let's hope it prevails. (Thanks for the kind words too!)


I agree, it's more than code.

Mined by 1 entity... let's try to remain honest! https://sv.coin.dance/block

It certainly seems that there is a very vocal majority, pouring scorn on BSV. So really nothing has changed, people have always thought they knew better and that Bitcoin was going to fail!

I'm amazed that these people are still so in the dark about BTC, I don't ascribe malice here, I suspect most are just speculators that are wed to their position - seeing Bitcoin not as p2p digital cash, but as some kind of get-rich quick trading vehicle. That's a really difficult bias to check.

What makes Bitcoin 'real' is ever so slightly more than the code. If that was the case you could run the 2009 version on your own Commodore 64 and shout at everyone that only you have the real Bitcoin.

SV is a fork of a fork. It's mined and might be developed, though I can't detect all that much, by one entity which makes it one of the least real iterations possible according to the principles of the original's creation.

Cherish it all you like. Plan accordingly for ongoing disdain from the majority.

Hey sgbett, just replying to let you know that I greatly appreciate your posts. I have been telling people around me that BSV is actually the *real* bitcoin for months now and it's really good to see that one of the users I appreciate most on these boards seems to have come to the same conclusion. Let's hope we made the right choice.

By full-node I am going to assume you mean non-mining node. It's important to understand that distinction.

I could run a BSV non-mining-node if I want... the question is why would I? What value does it add over and above being able to inspect the public ledger via any number of third parties, chosen at random.

Do you think it would be easier to sybil/double spend a target that runs a non-mining-node, trusts that node implicitly (because its theirs!) and verifies using that node only. Or Person B who sees a payment in their 'lite-wallet' that double checks on blockchair, coinbase etc? I hope you see the implication here.

You only need to run a node if you are mining, because you need to verify entire blocks in order to know which you are going to build upon. This is to ensure you don't inadvertently build on a block that the majority of hash rejects, thus leaving you with the potential to be orphaned.

As for the "bear" label - I am the original permabull! I don't remember many calling 6-7 figures before me. That's still pretty much inevitable imho, but I think that the harm done by not simply scaling bitcoin and improving the base protocol (like BSV is doing) has caused considerable setback in the timescale. Look to 2025-30 for the "endgame" in that post.

Still, It doesn't mean I don't see market cycles, and it definitely doesn't mean I will blindly apply that valuation to *BTC* - it only applies to *Bitcoin* which for me BTC is in name only. I fear for those blindly holding BTC in the hopes it will just be business as usual. In every prior run up it was Bitcoin. Now it is not.

So I think its fair for you to consider by bottom call bullish, it wasn't a terrible call considering the recent price action