Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 46.

Torque

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Quote from: sgbett on December 07, 2017, 09:33:11 AM

Quote from: Torque on December 07, 2017, 09:29:25 AM

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

Well, I believe a big short would definitely be a shake out attempt and not a full on crash and burn. The biggest whales playing in the new futures markets want to exert their market dominance early on. It's all about control. Plus they want all the n00bs to shit their pants and panic sell, lol.

X7

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Let he who is without sin cast the first stone

Quote from: sgbett on December 07, 2017, 08:34:39 AM

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good

As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

$3700? lol - you're living in denial with this one bro... retraction sure... it wont hit $3700 with this type of money entering the space.

fabiorem

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$16500 seems to coincide with sunday, which is the opening of CBOE futures.

sgbett

legendary

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Quote from: Torque on December 07, 2017, 09:29:25 AM

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

sgbett

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Quote from: fabiorem on December 07, 2017, 09:22:50 AM

Quote from: sgbett on December 07, 2017, 08:36:47 AM

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

Shouldnt the correction be to 0.618 level?

At least this is what it looks like historically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J19gwjumJ8

The 0.618 level in your retracement is between 6k and 7k.

Also, notice theres only one red candle above it, which can point out to institutional investors joining the market.

That would probably be more likely and in fact was staring me in the face. Lol.

Still, I like bold predictions that go against the group - makes for better discussion!

Torque

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We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

Merit: 347

Quote from: sgbett on December 07, 2017, 08:36:47 AM

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

Shouldnt the correction be to 0.618 level?

At least this is what it looks like historically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J19gwjumJ8

The 0.618 level in your retracement is between 6k and 7k.

Also, notice theres only one red candle above it, which can point out to institutional investors joining the market.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: Bitcoinaire on December 07, 2017, 09:04:05 AM

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

Bitcoinaire

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The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

sgbett

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Quote from: thecodebear on December 07, 2017, 08:47:04 AM

Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.

Bitcoin has not experienced a major correction (crash) this year. Everything to date has been pretty tame. Look at the $60-$1200 runup, lots of up and down along the way. Then you get the *real* correction.

thecodebear

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Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.

sgbett

legendary

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here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good

As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/~~0.124~~0.214 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

Edit: fixed transposition of numbers 0.124 should be 0.214

Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) - page 46. (Read 24335 times)