Topic: Chain-Bet.com | On Chain | No KYC | 15x Win | Provably Fair | Since 2016 - page 21. (Read 38517 times)

It seems u r mistaken in your calculation.

Example (PrimeDice): At default 2x roll, out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house DOES NOT reserve 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49). Because, player CAN NOT roll both over 50.49 and under 49.50 at a time. Player can bet either over or under at one roll. Hence, at any certain roll, house reserves 5100 possibilities for themselves.

So, according to your calculation, PrimeDice house edge = 5100/10000 = 0.51 = 51%, whereas Bitcoin Betting Website house edge is 50%.

Please correct me if I am wrong...

You're right....bet was placed prior to the change: verified by the timestamp.  He was paid the correct amount.

mobnepal checked a previous bet and asked about it. The person, who placed the bet, was supposed to receive 4x, as that was the return we were offering initially after launch. Please check the time stamp of the Confirmation Block Hash.

https://blockchain.info/block/000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08

Timestamp   2016-05-30 12:46:56

Now, please check the date of my quote. It is June 01, 2016, i.e. the raise to 8x was made on this day.

Hence, system worked perfectly as expected.

What he is saying is that he only received 4x when he should have received 8x.

Verification:

Bet ID: 20
Choice: 8
Bet Amount:  0.0003
Tx Hash: 21f91e4610d533c4428f04905579277851e2e37f108c6ad6caa443a95069cee4
Status: won
Confirmation Block Height: 414057
Confirmation Block Hash: 000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08
Won Amount:  0.0012
Return Address: 3GN4YRrj68cnYqEBMD2xDMUSSJXzFBEznc
Return Tx: ad86c488f3ea0730611f2b675f28934e41e4782828d4342197d4af8c5fe3b94d

We launched with 4x return and then raised it to 8x. Here is the announcement...

Bet id 20   8    0.0003   Click Here   414057   won

but on detail it shows return of 0.0012 BTC which is only 4x of bet but OP claims to return 8x on correct guess quite confusing.

Example (PrimeDice): at default 2x roll; out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house reserves 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49).  So, house edge = 100/10000 = 0.01 = 01%  

To convert the house edge to an expected value divide the house edge by 100. So, if the house edge is 01% (PrimeDice) the EV= 01/100 = -0.01 (note: negation achieved thru the words "house edge")

At 8x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (7 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.5  (from example in quote above)

To convert the expected value to the house edge multiply the expected value by 100.  So, as in the above expected value of -0.50, HE = (-0.5) * 100 = 50% house edge.  (note: negation of the negative sign in the identity is accomplished thru the words "house edge" in the translation)

So, Bitcoin Betting Website = 50% house edge (-0.50 EV)
And,                  PrimeDice = 01% house edge (-0.01 EV)

I hope that answers your question.

Conclusion: One would have to be ridiculously inept to play against a 50% house edge when they have the option of playing against a 01% house edge dice site.

Advice: Take the time to evaluate the math before putting your tokens at risk.

I, for one, 100% agree with you. But, for me the main USP of this game is blockchain based provably fairness. AFAIK, no other game has done this before. After a bet is placed, player does not even need to check the site. Bet is won or lost can be verified from any block explorer.

You dint answer this basic Q of mine...

They are now giving 8x and unlike dice sites, we may bet on multiple options as it seems.

Betting more does not increase the expected value.  Let's use the extremes to test that logic so as to avoid the math. If I bet on every number, what would my highest possible result be?  Lowest result? (H:-12, L: -12)  If I bet on four numbers, what would my highest possible result be? Lowest result? (H:0,L:-4) If I bet on three numbers, what would be my highest possible result? Lowest result? (H:1, L:-3)

Let's make a table for purposes of illustration:

For B=Number of Bets, H=Highest Result, L=Lowest Result

      (Bets 1-4)              (Bets 4-8)               (Bets 9-12)            (Bets 13-16)
B:01, H:03, L:-01,   B:05, H:-01, L:-05   B:09, H:-05, L:-09   B:13, H:-09, L:-13
B:02, H:02, L:-02,   B:06, H:-02, L:-06   B:10, H:-06, L:-10   B:14, H:-10, L:-14
B:03, H:01, L:-03,   B:07, H:-03, L:-06   B:11, H:-07, L:-11   B:15, H:-11, L:-15
B:04,  H:00, L:-04,    B:08, H:-04, L:-08   B:12, H:-08, L:-12   B:16, H:-12, L:-12

Notice that the only quantity of wagers capable of realizing profit are 1, 2, and 3. Also, notice that with one wager you're receiving the highest possible return on your investment, with two wagers you're risking 2 to win 2 with 14:2 odds against (even money prop with a 12.5% chance of success!!!), with 3 wagers you're risking 3 to win 1 with 13:3 odds against.  Most importantly recognize that at four wagers you're risking 4 to win 0 with 12:4 odds against (25% chance to break even, 75% chance to lose 4) and any number of wagers above four guarantees a loss.  Conclusion: the more wagers one places, the more inept one's gambling prowess.

Similar tables can be constructed for 8x return....it might be a fun exercise to compare them; however, the math associated with calculating expected value should be sufficient enough to make sound decisions.

I was also thinking that. Since dice gives you almost 200% with a 50% that means 400% is 25% win. Odds are 4x worse then dice.

You lost it man. This is your confirmation block hash...

000000000000000004a3321a40ea3bccdc9f1c445e0bf185539f071994079982

Better luck next time.

Great. Just placed a bet of 0.005 BTC on 7.

https://blockchain.info/tx/9daf07a1369d33eb080ea6b242f0b61f8472845ab39b22c00361374216944f6b

We have experimentally raised the Player vs House multiplying factor from 4x to 8x. Any further changes will be notified here. Thank you everyone for showing interest in this new game.

My calculations are definitely correct.

What is House Edge?
The difference between expected value and 100%.

For example:

I say that you can flip a coin. If it is heads, you gain 1.5x profit, if it is tails you lose it all.
Expected value = 50%*1.5x + 50%*0 = 75%
So the house edge is 100%-75% = 25%

Why does this game have a house edge of 75%?

One in 16 games gives you 4x the money.

So Expected Value = 1/16*4 = 4/16=25%
Hence, house edge = 100-25=75%


That changes nothing. Let's say you bet 1 BTC spread across 5 different options. (0.2 BTC on each option)
The expected value (average winnings) is 5/16 chance to win * 0.8 amount won = 0.25 BTC

What if you had normally bet just 1 BTC on 1 single option?
1/16 chance to win * 4 BTC amount won = 0.25 BTC expected value

The expected value in both cases is 25% (0.25 BTC / 1 BTC) and hence the house edge is 100% - 25% = 75%

Nice to know that you liked the concept.

We thought of that part, but it is risky. If we allow players to bet on a future block height, a rogue player may send the bet after the block is found. Any mechanism to resist that will raise unnecessary controversy about the timing. Hence we made it out of the hands of ours and players.

Feel free to play and report your experience here. Best of Luck

Thanks for pointing out the difference between house edge and expected value.

What are the EVs of established Dice sites?

Gambling is not charity. People are expected to lose as well as multiply their wealth. It is part of the game.

You did not consider the fact that, unlike dice sites, you can bet on multiple options at a time here and thereby significantly raise your chance of win.

And, people wonder why they walk away with empty pockets!  They make things too complicated to formulate reasonably efficient decisions.


EV= (-15*1/16) + (3*1/16) = -0.75........Translation: expect to lose 75% of your money on average.
                                                        Interpretation: don't be stupid enough to play against the house.

Quite a good concept and this is totally based out of luck and provably fair! However what I find lacking is,players should be able to select a block manually like they can decide which block they wish to bet on,depending on the last digit of that has,they can put their guesses.Anyhow playing against the house is good to since you're paying out 4x.Trying my first bet as a type!