Topic: (Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed) - page 101. (Read 274811 times)

Yea agree.  And always assumed if you have a Higher Volume to trade with, that would make a big Difference, on your profits..   

@ Kuroth

By the way, many months ago, I created a small program that would count how many peaks and falls there were above a certain percentage. I don't recall what I did with it. But back then in about 1 hour and 30 minutes there were 14 to 11 profitable spikes (after fees). In 1 day it was just a little over 1 hundred.

If you want commulative variations to sum up to 40 percent you would probably have to do high frequency trading at this point.

hehehe  My trading volume is really small..   5 BTC at the moment..  But I want to slowly build it up from my Mining..   I dont ever see a day where I will have like 1,000 BTC LOL But my dream is to someday have 50 to 100 BTC for just trading..

I am actually doing 3 main things right now..

Trading BTC with the Bot
Investing in BTC Stock on Bitfunder
And Mining..  (I have a Knc 400 GH's miner I am hoping to have by Sept if they really ship on time)  Right now I am GPU mining Alt Coins..

 So I am trying to diversify in my BTC holdings..  

Alright, fair question. How much is your trading volume?



Oh, okay. I didn't understand until just now. But the old days of 40%+ seems to be history.

The volume moving these days is nothing like it was before. (Average from eyeballing the market on MtGox is like 10k to 20k, back then with the crazy swings it was 10 times that much on average. Maybe more.)


I definitely do not have GoomBoo's experience. I just tinker, and then keep what works.

Now that you bring it up, there were some crazy swings "back in the day" of early 2013. I wonder if this accounts for the large profits cited by Pablo. If the volume remains as low as it has in these last two months...I don't think you'll make 8x (800%) of whatever was put in one year.

You stumbled on a good point I hadn't considered.

PuertoLibre have you read all of goomboo's Thread???..  I mean every page of it?

You make a lot of good points but I believe most, if not all of them, are answered in Goomboos.


Remember goomboo's #1 rule is Keep it simple..  I am not sure what your trading background and Trading experience is But according to GoomBoo's, who seem to have a LOT of experience, he stated he has tried 1,000's of methods from complex to simple and has settled on EMA as a good simple one to use..

Note: I had almost zero Experience it all this so all I am going by is goomboo's Thread...   You may be a lot more Expereinced than GoomBoo and if you are that is great and we are glad you are here..  If you are not, Please please please go read every page of his thread..


Couple of clarifications about my post that you had questions on..


What I consider a sideways market(And I may be wrong) is that for the last 3 or 4 weeks, BTC has not gone up or down very much at all..   Maybe sideways means something else?  If the market is barely moving up and down say withing a 0.10 range...   Example 100   up to 109 per BTC back down to 101.   Is that not a sideways market?   On such small swings I dont know how anyone trading BTC(using a bot or not and using EMA or another method) can make much profits trading BTC unless you happen to be trading with like 1,000 or more BTC in your trade account?  Thus what I mean by a sideways market...



Next you ask about my statement that we need the market to move 0.40 to 0.60 to make a decent profit..   What I mean is per BTC..  Meaning right now as I type this the price of BTC is 103.    We would need it to go up to 143 or 163 to make a really good profit(using the Bot and EMA)   I think the way I was using my decimals was confusing..


Anyway as I said if you have a TON of Exp and even more then GoomBoo's then please continue in teaching us what you can..  But I am not sure(by what you have posted) that you do have more Exp then him..


  Thanks!



 

maybe, but with this strategy you wait till it is rebounding before buying in

I noticed the tiny downturn. Made 3 BTC from it just now.

It looks like different indicators say it is about to rebound.



Edit: And it is rebounding.

If your b-bot just got you out, then it will likely get you back in pretty soon (it looks like a small rebound). So about 2 fees incurred at the least.

has anyone found a better method/settings? I've only been using bbot for a short time, but It seems to be making intelligent trades.

it follows the trend, as an example, if the price is crashing but you are going to have to sell at a loss to get out its not dumb or needless to do so

@ Pablo

By the way, does the back testing take into account the idea that the computer the bot runs on would need to be reset periodically?

Does shutting down and turning on B-Bot every week over the course of that year affect the results? (You said a number of days ago that the bot remembers certain critical things at power on)

@ Pablo

I guess I am just fear ridden.

I guess the only way to put those fears to rest inside me is to simply run the back testing over a long period of time. Since your results are 1 year in the making and an 800% increase. I suppose it would make sense to make an EC2 instance (with a free VM instance @ Amazon) and run B-Bot 24x7. At the end of the year open up the account and realize, you are one rich person....

 

So take what I say as if I were that crazy grandma/grandpa with the crazy eyes.

I don't understand your point on this. It should at the very least account for fees. (if it doesn't already)

You only need to know of the immediate present at the moment the next trade is calculated and is about to be executed. You will know if the transactions take you into the negative or the positive if fees are disadvantageous in the current trade.

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As far as I know, EMA is an indicator of what the market will probably do and it is (imo) an indicator that gives you info after the fact. Especially the way it is currently used in B-Bot. (takes two given periods for an execution to take place)

If it doesn't account for fees in a trade then, the bot is putting itself at a disadvantage. I don't see that as a feature but as a basic logic bug or perhaps a procedural bug.

The B-Bot also doesn't give any indication of what the expected profit or loss might be if it executed at any given moment. So I don't know if it simply doesn't account for that or if it could be added to the UI and have some basic intelligence added to the rules it operates under.

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Constructive criticism:

If at the very least the trade is not currently profitable, then don't commit a mistake of executing a needless transaction. It would be dumb to do so.

Every simple mistake like that does deduct from a future scenario where the logic does make it profitable.

If we are talking about trading situation of months and weeks then it makes more sense not to execute a trade when there is a loss. Who knows how the market could vary in that amount of time. Making a recovery possible without needless losses.

(Note: I lost 20+% after leaving the bot running for 1.5 weeks. I am not sure if the Bot will ever be able to make that up and then add a healthy profit on top of that. Each mistake adds up in the end.)



Agreed. But those systems have yet to be imported into the Bitcoin community.

There should be more effort in the community to use tools that are already available. The problem seems to be that none of the standard trading packages work with BitCoin Exchanges. That is apparently the communities achilles heel.

Yeah, but I doubt they see anywhere near the volatility in the BitCoin world.

Just a few days ago, the market varied 15%+. Thats a crazy amount in just 3 or 4 days for a normal market.

The noise from hour to hour is also about 1%. Sometimes more. If people in the real trading community came to Bitcoin they would be making a fortune in no time.

Using TA in a trade bot means that you are building a beta model (in this case a pretty simple one using only a single simple indicator). If you create a more complicated model taking more into account you are not better off per definition. Goomboo's point is that you have complex models and simple ones, and he found that this simple one is making him money.


Well it would be like looking into the future to know whether a trading decision is good or bad. Here you can see that trading is more like smart gambling (there is always risk, etc.) instead of a solid stream of profit.

The bot uses EMA to detect trends, you shouldn't take fees into account because (with EMA) you can only detect which direction the market will probably move to, but never how long that move will last (and thus what the profit per trade is and whether you should change position based on that profit and the costs = fees).


Agreed (except for the depending on prior conditions part), but I think the target audience for this bot is people who are just getting into trading to see if they can make a little profit, etc. Using only EMA is not only simple in the math sense, it's also pretty easy to comprehend. If you are serious about getting into (algo) trading you probably would not use a browser plugin (security issues, stability issues, networking / UI / processing / data storage limitations and the fact that auto browser updates can break it anytime of the day).


True, (only using) EMA is extremely bad when you want to manage risk. And 20 - 40% per month is extreme from a profit perspective. One of the smartest groups in the market are doing that on a yearly basis (so 12 times less profit per month). And they are not using EMA as their model, they got an army of quants who all using their Phd's in battle.

Hi Kuroth,

Can you direct me to where I might be able to read up on what Bitfunder is exactly and how it works?

Thanks in advance.

It hasn't been sideways from what I can see...

Because Goomboo's method only works in certain scenario's.

If the market varies in a certain way, you'll lose a whole lot. If the market varies in a certain way, you'll make about 20% of your full investment.

The failure is (IMO) that the bot uses only one method and one strategy to win. "1 size fits all".

It also seems to lack awareness of what is a good decision vs a bad decision at any given moment. Which means it is not taking into account many different pieces of data. I am not even sure if the B-Bot is taking into account the fee structure at the exchanges. So far, from looking at it, it is only looking at EMA values and that seems to be about the majority of the decision. (?)

Otherwise, there is (or should be) no way to lose actual money on fees.

It is my hope that in a future revision, the B-Bot needs to evolve not only to use "A different strategy" but to use "more than one" depending on prior conditions.

0.25% can earn as much as lose you money.

I have my doubts that following the width of EMA lines is alone useful, if the B-Bot doesn't work in concert with other pieces of information it will continue to make bad decision that could otherwise be avoided. Making other decisions that are in concert with the EMA is in line with basic trading strategies.

As a day trader I find this odd to believe.

If you have 100BTC and you earn only 0.40% or .60% that is approximately...100.6 to 100.4 BTC. Happening twice that isn't much.

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I think the max you can squeeze out of the market is 20% to 40% of whatever you put in (per month).

The problem is the increased risk and losing just as much as you are gaining. GoomBoo's method seems to be about making sure bets at the cost of significant opportunities. So if there were 20 opportunities to increase your wealth then you only took 2 of them because the EMA lines were blatantly profitable.

While you'll get those 2 sure bets to profit from (if the market oscillates the right way and EMA indicators actually work in that instance), some other trader may make 10 bets and win as they took on the added risk.

I wonder if that would be the case.

There are other strategies beyond EMA which will show you what is likely to be the next turn in the market. The EMA is pretty much reactionary rather than predictive. It tells you what is happening after the fact rather than as it shows up.


I see B-Bot as a good starting platform. If it could be retooled the right way with each individual having the capability of setting up their own methods (beyond or in addition to EMA) then it would work alot better.

I don't think the "1 size fits all" approach is good. There are situations where following the EMA line blindly can and will lose you money.

Dresden,
   We are looking into this, it's been mentioned before. The issue is that technical security and implementation are complex: client side? server side? How much load do we want to put on your machine? We'll take a more detailed look into this after V2.1; it's on the board .

Pablo.

Hey Fible, with these emails:


Would it be possible to start including actual specifics? i.e. say how much BTC was sold and what the USD balance was after the sell?

Same thing with Buy Orders? Showing how much BTC was bought and what the BTC balance is after the buy?

Yep, all correct .

Pablo.