Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak - page 119. (Read 29689 times)

From Austria. Source: National Newspapers. Exact cause of death to be examined, that's why it's not added to the Covid statistics yet.


Complete BS. 
The fatality rate of people infected by influenza (aka "the flu") is 0,1%. Your numbers would mean Germany's population is only a few hundred thousands, because a few hundred people die because of the flu there each year. This winter only about 200 so far.
Again: 1-2 out of of 1000 infected influenza cases die. Mainly people over 60 years of age.

Covid fatality will likely be between 2% and 10%. "Just a flu"... 

You said "mostly killing the already nearly-dead with underlying health conditions anyway".

This is not true as those with health conditions aren't nearly-dead in any sense and many people have recovered from cancer too. If you claim them to be already dead and that statement seems as if it's fine as those people died, that's wrong to say. They had a disease and couldn't handle the second one which claimed their lives else they could "live" with the former disease. Also, those who recovered again got the same virus in some cases and it's not sure that once you recover you are absolutely fit again.


https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-body-symptoms.html

I get you are worried about the economy but during every pandemic, the economy is already affected. If Governments don't impose lock downs, the entire country would be infected so how would that not affect the economy? If the Government doesn't take it seriously and starts saying it's safe as only people who are nearly dead and above 60 are dying, the people would stop believing in such a Government.

In Italy already beds are falling shorts and there are problems with burials and we are talking about a country with 60 million people where 31k cases are reported. I can't imagine if all people move about freely (whether old or not) and get sick, what the country would turn to.

Italy is rationing their medical care and prioritizing based on their chances of survival. If there is an otherwise healthy person and a person with other health issues, the person who has other health issues will not receive medical care because the Italian medical system is at capacity. Both need medical care to survive so the otherwise healthy person has a chance of survival while the person with other health issues is almost certain to die, even though their chances would be much better had they received care.

This is why there cannot be too many people sick at once. The health system has a limited capacity and can prevent most deaths of those who it is caring for.

While we are fighting the coronavirus, the travel/entertainment/tourism industries will be near non-existent, and long term the world economy will likely look different than it does today.

I agree with TECSHARE on this.  Who would've thought.

We're gonna run out of beds, doctors will have to decide who dies and who doesn't, it's going to suck.

People keep explaining to you why this needs to be done but you aren't listening. It isn't long term going to stop infections from spreading to nearly everyone, but it WILL SLOW IT. This gives the medical system and the supply chains critically needed time do adjust and absorb the overwhelming demand, and hopefully prevent a total breakdown of the global healthcare system.

The issue is not that this disease is just so fatally dangerous, but that is is just dangerous enough, and mostly debilitating with many requiring long hospital stays to treat. This disease has a unique combination of long viability on surfaces, being airborne, long incubation periods, passive carriers, and high rates of infection that is basically like a checklist of all the things you would put into a disease you intend to cause a pandemic.

Again, the rate of fatality alone is not the major threat, the number of people debilitated and requiring hospitalization all at once all over the globe is the real threat. Quarantines slow that infection curve down, and hopefully gives the system time to adjust and compensate for this huge wave of hospitalizations that is about to happen all over the world.

That's what scientists are predicting. In the US alone: 'The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. ' It's not 90%, my bad, it's more like 70%, my point still stands though.

''How long are we meant to self-isolate for?'' As long as we have to mate. 'Is this going to happen everytime a new form of SARS appears?' Yes if it's serious enough, quit crying about it, not everything has a good solution.

1 per 1000 of population, German scientist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn074EB5NNY&feature=youtu.be

Italy pop  2018 60,391,000,  per year 6039
US a common used figure is 37000 per year https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Well of course if everyone gets infected deaths would be high, but what makes you think everyone is going to get infected? How do you know this is going to infect 80-90% of people? And the economy will collapse if everyone is told to stay in doors for however long never-mind the hospitals. How long are we meant to self-isolate for? I don't think staying indoors for a few months is going to cut it and even that would be disastrous. If it's as extreme as you say then why isn't there a full on lock-down for everyone already? Telling people to just not go to the cinema or sporting events isn't going to do anything if everyone is still going to work etc. How often are we going to have to self-isolate for before the coast is clear? Is this going to happen everytime a new form of SARS appears?


I said mostly. Besides, that coach had cancer:


According to this basically nobody under 50 is dying:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

I wonder how those figure compare to flu deaths.



But is it just going to be for a couple of weeks? I'd be happy to stay at home for a few weeks and I work from home anyway, but I don't think this is going to go away within a few weeks and the damage to the economy could takes years to recover at best, decades at worst.


Well then they're the ones that obviously should be self-isolating and anyone is free to do that. I wouldn't advise elderly people to be gallivanting around town, but nobody lives forever.

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for treatment AND prevention of COVID-19. Fox News and also in Journal Nature
https://twitter.com/JillRTeamXRP/status/1239741344576425984

Italy we have a open sky laboratory on lockdowns.

We had  two zones in northern Italy where the disease initially spread.

The first was the one that actually has been quickly locked down almost one month ago. it was a few small village in a rural area. They sent the army patrolling it (quasi-Chinese approach). The people were smart enough to understand the risk and followed the rules closely (being a rural environment helped a lot imho. The disease has almost disappeared, today, no new infections in the last few days.  

The other one was inexplicably missed out. A few cases not correctly diagnosed, as there they followed the "general Italian rule of lockdowns". The disease was in the wild  for a few weeks with people going on with their businesses as usual. Result is the hospital in that  zone (near the mountains) are now close to collapse. I saw a video on WhatsApp (anedoctical evidence I know, with 4x obituaries than usual, none of them diagnosed).

Also Milan, the main city close to the epicenter of the disease, with the best hospital in the country, is ready for the "battle of Milan" facing unprecedented pressure on the health system. Again, anedotical evidence, of many people with symptoms not tested nor accepted in the hospitals because of the critical situation.

I suspect that we are probably almost all going to get the shit if the parameters (r0, incubation, etc) being promoted are close to true.

Delaying the thing is probably the most important on an individual level for two reasons:

1) These things tend to lose their lethality as the mutate, and they mutate extraordinarily quickly.  This would be especially the case of the 'gain of function' (lethality, survivability, etc) if was artificially engineered as I believe likely for this one (and SARS and MERS before it.)

2)  As time goes by more and more protocols will be developed and proven.  Some of them which make use of drugs which are not patented/patentable (Vitamin C, Chloroquine, etc) will be hushed up and derided in mainstream because big pharma won't get their payday.  But over time information about them will leak out through the censorship.  Best to get it when more information is freed up.

Sucks for you. Look up "predominantly" in the dictionary.


Staying at home is not tyranny. Nor is this about your personal risk.


Lockdowns, if implemented early enough and supported by other measures, can help to slow down the spread, which may be the difference between life and death for a lot of people. If you insist on killing yourself that's your business but you probably shouldn't be making that decision for anyone else.

I take insult at your broad-brush statement based on unwarranted assumptions.

I am neither young nor healthy.  Without disclosing personal details that may compromise my privacy, I will note that I am at significantly higher than average risk of death from coronavirus.

However, as I have said repeatedly, life is risk.  It would be awfully hypocritical of me to preach about courage, then turn around and demand that healthy young people destroy the world and embrace unlimited tyranny because I got panicked about a personal risk to myself.

My first public message about the coronavirus:

---

I myself want to go much more than “full Darwin” on anybody who panics.


So am I.  I have been quietly advising people (online and IRL) to spend some quality time with anyone elderly or frail whom they care about.  It may be your last chance.

Lockdowns don’t help with that—and probably won’t help the old folks in the end.

This is not cancer that's not contagious. The story about the 31st case in S. Korea who spread the virus to 2000+ people itself proves how dangerous it can be. Some are not worried about getting it but are worried about the other elders in their home who have a weaker immune system and even their kids. It's not a panic situation but nobody can just chill over it saying it's fine. People in Italy aren't even getting tested unless their condition is serious and the hospitals are full. Other countries too aren't testing all the patients that come in so imagine if those that have mild symptoms and move about, how many people they can infect.

@Bold: Nearly dead people? It killed a 21-year-old coach of Spain. Diabetes is one of the conditions found in patients who are dying and it is not that fatal while people over 60 cannot be considered as nearly dead people

a few points

the virus is just a virus. the disease is the symptom list of how it affects a person

too many stupid people are treating it like the disease is not related to the virus iin the same narrative of saying a bullet is not related to a bullet wound

you cannot cause a bullet wound from a knife. as that is a knife wound
a bullet wound is related to the cause. covid is to do with the virus

in short the disease' is just the list of symptoms/observations of what the virus does
can stupid people stop trying to think the disease os separate .. it all part of what the virus does to humans

....
separetly i do think that for instance in america putting schools on lockdown means kids are then needing someone to look after them at home, this then means they usually get taken to their retired grandparents to look after them while parents are at work.
this is risky.
its better to have kids at school so they are not running around old people and vulnerable people

i can understand them wanting to prevent a 3x spike and instead just have 3 mini bumps
  /\
 /  \           ___   __
/    \   vs  /      \/    \/\
its done to reduce the strain on the healthcare systems. after all UK for instance only has about 130,000 bed for all types of medical problems. so bed availability just for corona is much lower
also by delaying it, gives them more time to research it. so less deaths at second and third rounds once they learn lessons from the first round

but this social distancing thing to 'delay' will effect things because wuhan took 2 month in panic mode so this can be 3-6month for countries that do take this more 'delay' tactic

lets see how many businesses and employment positions are affected

i think wuhan will be the country to watch to predict what other countries could expect in a few months.

Look at Italy.

It's not like the flu. CFR is much higher, it's more contagious, and even though ~80% of sick people might have mild symptoms like above, the ones that are not so lucky may require intensive care. If it spreads uncontained it can overwhelm the healthcare system. The goal is now to flatten the curve to keep the system working for those who need it and staying at home for a few weeks is a small price to pay.

Bravado among predominantly young healthy members of this forum is understandable. That doesn't work for those who have a high risk of complications from this virus unless you want to go full Darwin on them and just let them die. I'm kinda attached to a couple high-risk family members so I'm glad that schools and other virus-breeding places around here are closed. Unfortunately testing is still severely lacking but there are some drive-through testing places popping up so hopefully it'll pick up soon.

You don't seem to understand the problem. If everyone gets infected, the deaths will be way higher or just as high. Anyways that's not even the problem, the problem is that this 'flu' is extremely contagious and without any measures taken it will spread extremely fast infecting 80-90% of the population in any country within months. No healthcare system can sustain that and would collapse. Do you not understand that?

You totally fell into the name/label psy-op.  Tower of Babble thing.  It is perfectly acceptable to say 'the flu virus' and one need not be bothered to use the technical term for the species of virus which causes a particular flu.  

In point of fact, the entire presentation IS about the 'covid-19' (the disease) and doesn't touch on the actual virus much at all other than a brief few brief descriptions of certain of it's features.  The description of the vid also says in pretty clear English: "...  Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-COV2 is a new strain that was discovered in 2019 and has not been previously identified in humans."

Edit:  I actually found the first 12 minutes or so to be not very interesting.  When he finally got into how the virus attacks what cells and the various cytokines that will be in play is where I got very interested.

Where from and what's the source? Also, I'm not sure of anything, but until people start dropping like flies I'll continue to believe it's probably over-hyped and one or two young people dying doesn't mean much or scare me. I know of two people who died of heart attacks in their 20's but that's a rare occurrence and there's usually something else going on with them for that to happen. There's always going to be outliers but that doesn't mean to say the entire world needs to panic like it is right now.

Yesterday, a 48 year old woman died with no known preconditions in self quarantine.
I have read reports of deaths of formerly healthy doctors and nurses in wuhan, died of covid in their early 30's.
Don't be too sure...