Topic: crypto-games.net, 30% house edge, bugs and vulnerabilities, screw the investors! - page 12. (Read 13017 times)

Quote from: fox19891989 on July 03, 2015, 09:44:44 AM

Quote from: subSTRATA on July 02, 2015, 02:17:30 PM

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before, what an amazing result bro. Grin

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal. Shocked

This one isn't a bug, as I can reproduce it. So there is something wrong with your math. Sorry. But that rounding issues if fixed now and wasn't a big deal...

But you didn't even fix the issues. Pleople are free to steal you money and it's not a big deal!

I have checked almost all scenarios from that table and all have the same result. And I trust my simulator more than I trust your math Tongue

joter85

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Activity: 395

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crypto.games: #1 Gambling Site

Quote from: arallmuus on July 03, 2015, 10:06:00 AM

wasn't a big deal...

It is indeed not something that will make the user to get rich overnight however the rounding issues are giving player an edge over 30 % and that is indeed a big deal .Also that considering your site has an investment feature than it means investor is getting -EV which serves as a bad reputation for your site.

Your action of being hostile towards someone who give you a heads up also disgraced dooglus' calculation about this issue also is a bad publicity for your site and now people will think twice about investing on your site. In other words you have dug your own grave and it will be just a matter of time before more people read this thread

P.S : are you going to give Substrata the bounty for finding this flaw of your site?

Hostile? We offered him bounty, but he was to greedy to take it. We are small site and don't have huge profit, so we can't afford to reward everyone that says he found a bug, and doesn't want to tell us about it if we don't pay....

For this 32% issue or whatever it is impossible to reproduce, so you are wrong at some point, not sure where.

tsoPANos

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Activity: 602

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In math we trust.

Quote from: fox19891989 on July 03, 2015, 09:44:44 AM

Quote from: subSTRATA on July 02, 2015, 02:17:30 PM

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before, what an amazing result bro. Grin

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal. Shocked

This one isn't a bug, as I can reproduce it. So there is something wrong with your math. Sorry. But that rounding issues if fixed now and wasn't a big deal...

But you didn't even fix the issues. Pleople are free to steal you money and it's not a big deal!
edit- you seem to have found a cheap method to limit max multiplier to 6500.
6500*0.02%=1.30 wich means 30% edge.
6613*0.02%=1.3226 wich means 32.26% edge
great! Now players can't play with 32.26% edge! How bad! They will need to comromise with only 30%!!!

arallmuus

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Activity: 2562

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Quote from: fox19891989 on July 03, 2015, 09:44:44 AM

wasn't a big deal...

It is indeed not something that will make the user to get rich overnight however the rounding issues are giving player an edge over 30 % and that is indeed a big deal .Also that considering your site has an investment feature than it means investor is getting -EV which serves as a bad reputation for your site.

Your action of being hostile towards someone who give you a heads up also disgraced dooglus' calculation about this issue also is a bad publicity for your site and now people will think twice about investing on your site. In other words you have dug your own grave and it will be just a matter of time before more people read this thread

P.S : are you going to give Substrata the bounty for finding this flaw of your site?

joter85

sr. member

Activity: 395

Merit: 255

crypto.games: #1 Gambling Site

Quote from: subSTRATA on July 02, 2015, 02:17:30 PM

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before, what an amazing result bro. Grin

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal. Shocked

This one isn't a bug, as I can reproduce it. So there is something wrong with your math. Sorry. But that rounding issues if fixed now and wasn't a big deal...

fox19891989

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Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: subSTRATA on July 02, 2015, 02:17:30 PM

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before, what an amazing result bro. Grin

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal. Shocked

joter85

sr. member

Activity: 395

Merit: 255

crypto.games: #1 Gambling Site

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Quickseller on July 03, 2015, 09:18:30 AM

I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

The variance makes this very difficult to simulate (and likewise very difficult to abuse). Try simulate with 100M bets.

Or you know, just use fucking maths. Hint: It's two multiplications and one addition. Sum of the probabilities by its respective profit, which gives you the players EV. If it doesn't equal -0.01 you're got the wrong payouts.

Taking the most extremely wrong one:

0.02% chance of 6613x

That's a 0.0002 of a profit of 6612, and a (1-0.0002) of a profit of -1

Or: 0.0002 * 6612 + (1-0.002)*-1 = 0.3244

AKA a players advantage of 32.44%

You are wrong somewhere as I have entered exact parameters in simulator and result after 10 mil is 0 btc.

joter85

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crypto.games: #1 Gambling Site

Quote from: subSTRATA on July 03, 2015, 09:09:24 AM

heres how bad it is, credit goes to dooglus for compiling this:

multiplier, win chance, edge

6613x 0.02% 32.26%
3968x 0.03% 19.04%
2834x 0.04% 13.36%
2204x 0.05% 10.20%
1803x 0.06% 8.18%
1526x 0.07% 6.82%
1322x 0.08% 5.76%
1167x 0.09% 5.03%
1044x 0.10% 4.40%
944x 0.11% 3.84%
862x 0.12% 3.44%
793x 0.13% 3.09%
734x 0.14% 2.76%
684x 0.15% 2.60%
640x 0.16% 2.40%
601x 0.17% 2.17%
566x 0.18% 1.88%
536x 0.19% 1.84%
508x 0.20% 1.60%
483x 0.21% 1.43%
461x 0.22% 1.42%
440x 0.23% 1.20%
422x 0.24% 1.28%
404x 0.25% 1.00%
389x 0.26% 1.14%
374x 0.27% 0.98%
360x 0.28% 0.80%
348x 0.29% 0.92%
336x 0.30% 0.80%
325x 0.31% 0.75%
314x 0.32% 0.48%
305x 0.33% 0.65%
296x 0.34% 0.64%
287x 0.35% 0.45%
279x 0.36% 0.44%
271x 0.37% 0.27%
264x 0.38% 0.32%
257x 0.39% 0.23%
251x 0.40% 0.40%
244x 0.41% 0.04%
239x 0.42% 0.38%
233x 0.43% 0.19%
228x 0.44% 0.32%
218x 0.46% 0.28%
213x 0.47% 0.11%
182x 0.55% 0.10%

I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

If there is a 0.02% chance of winning a bet then one will win such a bet once every 5,000 bets however you are paying out 6,613x of the wager amount. If someone were to make a .01 bet 5,000 times then they would wager a total of 50 BTC but would be expected to win 66.13 BTC.

As I said this is issue I can't reproduce in my simulator, I won't bother doing math as we have already did. Now we run only simulations....

Quickseller

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Activity: 2996

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Quote from: subSTRATA on July 03, 2015, 09:09:24 AM

heres how bad it is, credit goes to dooglus for compiling this:

multiplier, win chance, edge

6613x 0.02% 32.26%
3968x 0.03% 19.04%
2834x 0.04% 13.36%
2204x 0.05% 10.20%
1803x 0.06% 8.18%
1526x 0.07% 6.82%
1322x 0.08% 5.76%
1167x 0.09% 5.03%
1044x 0.10% 4.40%
944x 0.11% 3.84%
862x 0.12% 3.44%
793x 0.13% 3.09%
734x 0.14% 2.76%
684x 0.15% 2.60%
640x 0.16% 2.40%
601x 0.17% 2.17%
566x 0.18% 1.88%
536x 0.19% 1.84%
508x 0.20% 1.60%
483x 0.21% 1.43%
461x 0.22% 1.42%
440x 0.23% 1.20%
422x 0.24% 1.28%
404x 0.25% 1.00%
389x 0.26% 1.14%
374x 0.27% 0.98%
360x 0.28% 0.80%
348x 0.29% 0.92%
336x 0.30% 0.80%
325x 0.31% 0.75%
314x 0.32% 0.48%
305x 0.33% 0.65%
296x 0.34% 0.64%
287x 0.35% 0.45%
279x 0.36% 0.44%
271x 0.37% 0.27%
264x 0.38% 0.32%
257x 0.39% 0.23%
251x 0.40% 0.40%
244x 0.41% 0.04%
239x 0.42% 0.38%
233x 0.43% 0.19%
228x 0.44% 0.32%
218x 0.46% 0.28%
213x 0.47% 0.11%
182x 0.55% 0.10%

I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

If there is a 0.02% chance of winning a bet then one will win such a bet once every 5,000 bets however you are paying out 6,613x of the wager amount. If someone were to make a .01 bet 5,000 times then they would wager a total of 50 BTC but would be expected to win 66.13 BTC.

joter85

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crypto.games: #1 Gambling Site

Quote from: subSTRATA on July 03, 2015, 09:15:42 AM

I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

you claim to have run a simulation with an adequate sample size to prove each of these cases within minutes? an adequate sample size to prove these would be hundreds of thousands of bets, and I doubt your small server is capable of handling that. yes, you are missing something, its called math.

I ran only first 3 payouts on my own simulator with 1 million bets made. Result was the same.

But that one is interesting with payout rounding, yeah. Thanks for pointing that one out.

subSTRATA

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:^)