Topic: Date for 25 BTC per Block - page 10. (Read 34970 times)
blocks produce at the same rate with difficulty adjustments. It will vary a little because of the lag behind each adjustment so it will vary a little bit but probably not alot. The mayans did get it right....... lord help us all......
The Mayan's estimated the date correctly
Der de dum dum
Here's a guess:
9th Dec assumes current rate continues.
I expect bitcoin price to increase (on average) throughout the year. Higher price equals more miners. A steadily increasing number of miners means that each block is found slightly faster than anticipated, and that continues for 2016 blocks before the difficulty compensates. Except that the next 2016 blocks have the same: an increasing number of miners.
In short: block rate will average faster than one every ten minutes. Let's guess at 9 minutes between blocks. That's 10% faster. Instead of 281 days, it'll be 252 days ish.
In other words: about a month earlier.
My guess would therefore be 10th November. But on the chance of there being historical coincidence I'd like to choose...
"remember, remember, the 5th of November."
9th Dec assumes current rate continues.
I expect bitcoin price to increase (on average) throughout the year. Higher price equals more miners. A steadily increasing number of miners means that each block is found slightly faster than anticipated, and that continues for 2016 blocks before the difficulty compensates. Except that the next 2016 blocks have the same: an increasing number of miners.
In short: block rate will average faster than one every ten minutes. Let's guess at 9 minutes between blocks. That's 10% faster. Instead of 281 days, it'll be 252 days ish.
In other words: about a month earlier.
My guess would therefore be 10th November. But on the chance of there being historical coincidence I'd like to choose...
"remember, remember, the 5th of November."
I too want date for 25 btc
Heh. When I first read this, I thought that you were very lonely, if you were willing to pay 25 BTC for a date. I didn't grok your question until I read the next reply.
Place your bets:
December 9th or earlier the bitcoin block reward will drop to 25 BTC
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Personally, I'm stumped. I do think the marginal GPU miners (e.g., where electricity is expensive, or not much capacity) will see the 25 BTC drop coming up and some will sell off their hardware to prior to this date. (meaning capacity drops and the date comes after December 9th.) On the other hand, FPGA miners by then could be plentiful (which would cause capacity to increase, and the date come before December 9th). Also, if the BTC/USD heads higher the date before December 9th becomes more likely as more capacity gets added. Who knows.
December 9th or earlier the bitcoin block reward will drop to 25 BTC
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Personally, I'm stumped. I do think the marginal GPU miners (e.g., where electricity is expensive, or not much capacity) will see the 25 BTC drop coming up and some will sell off their hardware to prior to this date. (meaning capacity drops and the date comes after December 9th.) On the other hand, FPGA miners by then could be plentiful (which would cause capacity to increase, and the date come before December 9th). Also, if the BTC/USD heads higher the date before December 9th becomes more likely as more capacity gets added. Who knows.
I too want date for 25 btc
You too can read this thread.
There is no exact date because it is based on # of blocks and while on average blocks will take 10 minutes each there is no exact correlation between blocks and time.
It is roughly Dec 9th as indicated above. As we get closer to December the date will have less variance.
I too want date for 25 btc
Thanks guys.
40515 blocks to go at 6 block per hour makes it 281.4 days, so on 9th of december 2012.
This has probably been discussed a lot of times, but I just can't find the right answer.
What is the estimated date that the block reward changes to 25 BTC?
From the Wiki:
The coin value of a block is 50 BTC for each of the first 210,000 blocks, 25 BTC for the next 210,000 blocks, then 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC and so on.
What is the estimated date that the block reward changes to 25 BTC?
From the Wiki:
The coin value of a block is 50 BTC for each of the first 210,000 blocks, 25 BTC for the next 210,000 blocks, then 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC and so on.
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