Date for 25 BTC per Block - page 6. | Bitcointalksearch.org

isis

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 30, 2012, 11:49:38 AM

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 29, 2012, 09:33:15 PM

Seals is gunna have a huge party, I don't care when it happens :-)

The even needs a name. "Block reward adjustment day" doesn't necessarily roll off the tongue.

Some might refer to it as their GPU retirement day .. Grin

How about "Market Day" since we'll all be DDOSing mtgox to try and figure out what the market is doing that day.

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: FreeMoney on August 29, 2012, 09:33:15 PM

Seals is gunna have a huge party, I don't care when it happens :-)

The even needs a name. "Block reward adjustment day" doesn't necessarily roll off the tongue.

Some might refer to it as their GPU retirement day .. Grin

molecular

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 29, 2012, 10:31:42 PM

Quote from: BIGMERVE on August 29, 2012, 10:20:52 PM

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

The Myans were actually just counting down the to the first subsidy cut. The meaning of their calender just got lost in history.

lol, from that date on, you only have to make half the sacrifices to the gods Wink

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: isis on August 29, 2012, 10:30:36 PM

I'm tempted to bet on December 21st 2012 as the date the first block of 25 is generated. Isn't there a site somewhere that we can make that sort of bet?

You'ld lose choosing that late of a date though. The range of likelihood is now between late November and early December.

- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: BIGMERVE on August 29, 2012, 10:20:52 PM

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

The Myans were actually just counting down the to the first subsidy cut. The meaning of their calender just got lost in history.

isis

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Activity: 154

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Quote from: BIGMERVE on August 29, 2012, 10:20:52 PM

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

I'm tempted to bet on December 21st 2012 as the date the first block of 25 is generated. Isn't there a site somewhere that we can make that sort of bet?

BIGMERVE

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Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

FreeMoney

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Strength in numbers

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 29, 2012, 08:55:32 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 26, 2012, 07:48:46 PM

December 3rd now. If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

- http://bitcoinclock.com

Incidentally, the difficulty will adjust at block 209,664, about two days before the block reward adjustment occurs at 210,000, so even if a bunch of GPU miners drop out immediately, the difficulty will stay higher for the remaining 1,680 blocks -- possibly extending that difficulty adjustment period out several additional days (adding a little insult to the 25 BTC per block injury.)

Gunna be some looooow supply around the holidays.

FreeMoney

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Strength in numbers

Quote from: Atheros on August 27, 2012, 11:40:18 AM

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 26, 2012, 10:01:37 PM

Let's hear it for November! woohoo!

Anybody throwing parties?

I would schedule one but we don't know when the next-era block will be found. Planning a party is hard when you don't know when the event will occur. I bet in 2016, we'll know with much more certainty when it will occur as the date approaches.

Seals is gunna have a huge party, I don't care when it happens :-)

We should know day and rough time of day about a week out I'd think.

Agree, will be steadier next time, but probably always a bit turbulent timing afterwards.

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 26, 2012, 07:48:46 PM

December 3rd now. If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

- http://bitcoinclock.com

Incidentally, the difficulty will adjust at block 209,664, about two days before the block reward adjustment occurs at 210,000, so even if a bunch of GPU miners drop out immediately, the difficulty will stay higher for the remaining 1,680 blocks -- possibly extending that difficulty adjustment period out several additional days (adding a little insult to the 25 BTC per block injury.)

Atheros

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Quote from: FreeMoney on August 26, 2012, 10:01:37 PM

Let's hear it for November! woohoo!

Anybody throwing parties?

I would schedule one but we don't know when the next-era block will be found. Planning a party is hard when you don't know when the event will occur. I bet in 2016, we'll know with much more certainty when it will occur as the date approaches.

FreeMoney

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Strength in numbers

Let's hear it for November! woohoo!

Anybody throwing parties?

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 16, 2012, 04:00:14 AM

110 days left at 10 minutes per block. That moves the date to the early hours of December 4th, 2012.

December 3rd now. If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

- http://bitcoinclock.com

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on July 18, 2012, 12:16:55 PM

So I suspect we'll continue to see an increasing difficulty, and if done so gradually as has occurred for these last few, ... the date for block 210,000 arrives even sooner.

110 days left at 10 minutes per block. That moves the date to the early hours of December 4th, 2012.

Stephen Gornick

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Latest update:

Charted from this data:
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

The last update took about 13 days and two hours, versus the 14 days it would have taken if blocks were being solved at the rate of exactly one per ten minutes.

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 141 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 6th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees that it will not be after December 9th but it is at less than a 3:1 ratio:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

Mining profitability is really high right now:
- http://www.blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

So I suspect we'll continue to see an increasing difficulty, and if done so gradually as has occurred for these last few, ... the date for block 210,000 arrives even sooner.

Atheros

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If ASIC mining comes online before then, that date could easily move up clear into November.

Stephen Gornick

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Latest update:

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 150 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to early in the day on December 7th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (more than 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

molecular

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Quote from: bulanula on June 30, 2012, 07:43:58 AM

Quote from: molecular on June 30, 2012, 07:31:44 AM

Quote from: mystery2048 on June 30, 2012, 05:47:03 AM

Approximate 5 months left until the block reward halfs, get ready people!

Get ready for what?

$10 price. Or shall we call it $12 actually ?

so mystery2048 is actually saying "BUY BUY BUY"?

imo it's already factored in by the markets. Is there a bet about a price jump when reward drops around?

bulanula

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