My guess is still after Dec 15th but who knows
Anyway we can more or less be sure it is within a few weeks before Dec 9th and a few weeks after.
Update on that calculation since we are exactly nine months from the target date on the bet:
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http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312With block height of 170,390 reached, doing the math that gives us 275 days left, so still on target for December 9th as the day block 210,000 will be reached.
What is certain is that the number of bitcoins issued each day will be cut in half. Meaning if miners are generating $36K worth of bitcoins on December 8th, then the drop occurs, then starting on December 9th they will generate $18K worth of bitcoins -- though there would be some fluctuations in price that might cause those numbers to vary but essentially it will be a sudden 50%-ish drop in revenue.
Assuming all mined coins are immediately sold on the market, there would also be a sudden drop of "supply" on the exchange markets. A sudden 50% drop of supply given constant demand would surely drive the price up quite a bit. Of course the market will react even before the fact in anticipation, driving price up, in turn making mining more profitable again even before the drop.
So my argument is that the 50% drop in mining income (measured in BTC) will not result in a 50% drop in USD-denominated revenue for this reason (higher price)
Also miners are likely to reduce the percentage of BTC they throw directly onto the markets, but hold on to them (or a part of them) in anticipation of being able to sell at a better price after the supply drop. So this is another factor that puts upward pressure on the price before the fact.
I actually think there might not be
that much happening on
the date. Most of the action and adjustments will be happening beforehand in anticipation, starting in late summer, maybe even earlier. I, for one, am already holding on to my bitcoins a lot harder
I still have no leaning as to which outcome is more likely. Tell me what the exchange rate will be and the number of FPGA units that will be sold over the next half year and the difficulty level at a future date becomes easier to predict.
Well, the exchange rate is part of the game, so you must include that in your set of values to predict
I'm leaning towards an earlier date because I'm assuming an increasingly bullish market toward block 210000 which will result in mining power increase.
As for miners selling their hardware: I kind of doubt they will do that in the 1-2 months before the drop. They might sell now or in early summer, but after that, it's just too tempting to keep things running at least until the drop. Most rigs are probably payed off anyways and gaming is always an option
