Date for 25 BTC per Block - page 8. | Bitcointalksearch.org

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1015

Strength in numbers

Quote from: molecular on May 01, 2012, 10:51:49 AM

Quote from: Fuzzy on May 01, 2012, 03:38:33 AM

Quote from: FreeMoney on April 30, 2012, 05:39:27 PM

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

Good point:

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly Roll Eyes

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

Interesting, I read it the second way (as intended by the author). I didn't even consider the first possibility.

I wonder what exactly determines which way one reads it.

I'm also astonished that I didn't even realize there was ambiguity at all until quite a few posts later. I wonder how often this happens to me? Did you guys spot this from the beginning?

Yeah, I didn't see the other reading at all until pointed out. I think if you know the person at all you probably pick the right reading automatically.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Fuzzy on May 01, 2012, 03:38:33 AM

Quote from: FreeMoney on April 30, 2012, 05:39:27 PM

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

Good point:

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly Roll Eyes

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

Interesting, I read it the second way (as intended by the author). I didn't even consider the first possibility.

I wonder what exactly determines which way one reads it.

I'm also astonished that I didn't even realize there was ambiguity at all until quite a few posts later. I wonder how often this happens to me? Did you guys spot this from the beginning?

Fuzzy

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Quote from: FreeMoney on April 30, 2012, 05:39:27 PM

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

Good point:

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly Roll Eyes

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1015

Strength in numbers

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 30, 2012, 03:36:34 PM

Quote from: FreeMoney on April 30, 2012, 03:28:25 PM

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 29, 2012, 06:49:31 PM

...close enough Cool

*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

That was a useful reply no?

Yes, and it's never happened that fast on the intertubes

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

check_status

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Web Dev, Db Admin, Computer Technician

Some people do use rss readers to keep track of their favorite threads on forums. You might understand when you use something like Liferea or RSSowl. When providing tech support to those in trouble, a feed reader is a must.

@D&T reply LOL

Fuzzy

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Quote from: FreeMoney on April 30, 2012, 03:28:25 PM

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 29, 2012, 06:49:31 PM

...close enough Cool

*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

That was a useful reply no?

Yes, and it's never happened that fast on the intertubes

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1015

Strength in numbers

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 29, 2012, 06:49:31 PM

...close enough Cool

*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

That was a useful reply no?

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 29, 2012, 06:49:31 PM

*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet?

"Hey man."
"WHAT?"
"HEY MAN, YOU DEAF?"
"NO, BUT I'M GOING CRAZY: GOT THIS ALARM GOING OFF IN MY HEAD WHENEVER SOMEONE SAYS SOMETHING WRONG ON THE INTERNET"
"MAN, THAT'S GODDA BE LIKE... CONSTANTLY?!?"
"WHAT?!?"

Fuzzy

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

...close enough Cool

*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

kronosvl

full member

Activity: 134

Merit: 100

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 29, 2012, 06:39:56 PM

Once the BFL Mini-Rigs start hitting the street at 25GH each, you can bet your bits the difficulty will rocket.

Imagine, the Network total is ~11 THs, each miniRig runs 0.25, so for every 4 rigs turned on an extra TeraHash is added to the network.

This is going to be very interesting, and very bad for anyone still mining on video cards (me).

25GH=0.025 TH or 40 miniRigs for 1 TH

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

Quote from: Fuzzy on April 29, 2012, 06:39:56 PM

Once the BFL Mini-Rigs start hitting the street at 25GH each, you can bet your bits the difficulty will rocket.

Imagine, the Network total is ~11 THs, each miniRig runs 0.25, so for every 4 rigs turned on an extra TeraHash is added to the network.

I believe your math is off here. If a "mini-rig" is 25 GH, then it takes 40 of them to get 1 TH.

Fuzzy

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Once the BFL Mini-Rigs start hitting the street at 25GH each, you can bet your bits the difficulty will rocket.

Imagine, the Network total is ~11 THs, each miniRig runs 0.025, so for every 40 rigs turned on an extra TeraHash is added to the network.

This is going to be very interesting, and very bad for anyone still mining on video cards (me).

EDIT: as pointed out, 25GH is 0.025TH, not 0.25TH

Apparently 3 pm is too early for me to do maths

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: steelhouse on April 29, 2012, 04:12:24 PM

I did the calculation 1/3. Annual inflation rate will drop to 13%.

Right now it is at 29.5% annual (dropped below 30% threshold earlier this month). Hadn't looked at it recently.

steelhouse

hero member

Activity: 717

Merit: 501

BTC - 10 minute blocks, retarget every 2016 blocks, 2 weeks
1/3/12   160370   8018500   33%   50   7200
12/13/2012   210050   10500000   13%   25   3600
12/13/2016   420434   15750000   4%   12.5   1800
12/13/2020   630818   15960012.5   2%   6.25   900

I did the calculation 1/3. Annual inflation rate will drop to 13%.

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 11, 2012, 06:31:11 PM

It could end up being a photo finish!

It's turning into quite a contest!

Now, going forward if mining keeps the target 144 blocks per day from here (yes, a big stretch but on average ... 144) the date for block 210,000 has moved later and now sits about noon on December 9th, 2012. It was targeted at December 7th, at one point.

- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
- http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: molecular on April 12, 2012, 08:59:18 AM

If, due to exceptional circumstances, we end up with a diff drop of 3% that doesn't reflect a drop hashrate, then that difficutly was measured "wrongly" and we're hashing blocks faster than 1 block per 10 minutes in the coming period, which will effectively move the date closer, no?

Yup, but for some reason that hashing in the last couple days hasn't been rebounding to those previous levels. So there probably are other contributing factors. There has been some selling of hardware as some miners unload GPUs and buy FPGAs (here's one example, by the person who held at one time the record for "fastest rig" https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sold-many-hd-6990-cards-starting-at-450-160-mhs-75616 ).
- http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

So if those GPUs get sold to others who will be mining, that hashing will not just return but will be in addition to the new FPGA hashing purchased using the proceeds from the GPU sales.

But with a sub-$5 BTC/USD and this difficulty level, those with GPUs and are paying $0.15 or more per kWh are just barely breaking even. Whether or not the new hashing from FPGAs more than compensates the lost hashing from those dropping out is the reason that bet could still go either way.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 11, 2012, 06:31:11 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 01, 2012, 04:53:46 AM

That puts the date sometime on December 7th, 2012.
At this point, those betting on it being December 9th or earlier are on the winning side. The wagers are 4X more for that than for the "later than December 9th" side:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

It could end up being a photo finish! This last adjustment period id is looking like we'll end up with a 3% drop in difficulty. Some that had to do with the mining on blocks that became orphaned, thanks to miners that hadn't upgraded to code that supported changes to the Bitcoin protocol.

That puts the date late December 8th, 2012. The bet says December 9th or later so there is still more than 24 hours cushion for the "December 9th or earlier" side of the bet (the "agree"). But a lot can happen yet. With 22% margin, either the price needs to go up or there will be more GPU miners droppng out.
- http://bit.ly/HEzoMm (minng profitability currently 22%)

If, due to exceptional circumstances, we end up with a diff drop of 3% that doesn't reflect a drop hashrate, then that difficutly was measured "wrongly" and we're hashing blocks faster than 1 block per 10 minutes in the coming period, which will effectively move the date closer, no?

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 01, 2012, 04:53:46 AM

That puts the date sometime on December 7th, 2012.
At this point, those betting on it being December 9th or earlier are on the winning side. The wagers are 4X more for that than for the "later than December 9th" side:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

It could end up being a photo finish! This last adjustment period id is looking like we'll end up with a 3% drop in difficulty. Some explanation for that drop might have to do with the mining on blocks that became orphaned, thanks to miners that hadn't upgraded to code that supported changes to the Bitcoin protocol.

That puts the date late December 8th, 2012. The bet says December 9th or later so there is still more than 24 hours cushion for the "December 9th or earlier" side of the bet (the "agree"). But a lot can happen yet. With 22% margin, either the price needs to go up or there will be more GPU miners droppng out.
- http://bit.ly/HEzoMm (mining profitability currently 22%)

Serenata

sr. member

Activity: 250

Merit: 250

Quote from: kjj on March 05, 2012, 03:43:34 AM

Quote from: enquirer on March 03, 2012, 10:19:30 AM

I too want date for 25 btc

Heh. When I first read this, I thought that you were very lonely, if you were willing to pay 25 BTC for a date. I didn't grok your question until I read the next reply.

looool
Just couldn't help myself....

Topic: Date for 25 BTC per Block - page 8. (Read 34970 times)