Topic: Date for 25 BTC per Block - page 7. (Read 34970 times)
Approximate 5 months left until the block reward halfs, get ready people!
IF all these mega tera ultra super mining coffee warming kitchen appliances come out prior to the block split wont these things make the split happen a LOT sooner?
Not necessarily. It it were to shoot up one time, and then drop by that same amount the next, then it would actually cause the date to be pushed back. Here's an explanation:
I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.
Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.
But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.
Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe. That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.
So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).
ahh.. interesting
IF all these mega tera ultra super mining coffee warming kitchen appliances come out prior to the block split wont these things make the split happen a LOT sooner?
Not necessarily. It difficulty were to shoot up one time, and then drop by that same amount the next, then it would actually cause the date to be pushed back. Here's an explanation:
I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.
Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.
But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.
Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe. That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.
So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).
Latest update:
Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 163 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 7th.
The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 163 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 7th.
The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
IF all these mega tera ultra super mining coffee warming kitchen appliances come out prior to the block split wont these things make the split happen a LOT sooner?
So who is hosting The very first Bitcoin Block party? 
Latest update:
Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 163 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 7th.
The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 163 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 7th.
The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Chart showing how many days per block.
Charted from this data:
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc
Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 183 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to early morning on December 9th.
The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Charted from this data:
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc
Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 183 days to go. That puts the date for block 210,000 to early morning on December 9th.
The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
Well, I made a date approach like a month ago and took in mind hashing power,difficulty increase, quantity of blocks solved, typical deviaton ( I think it's called so in english) of total miners per week, Moore's law and some other factors.
What I obtained was a date closer than 9th of November
What I obtained was a date closer than 9th of November
I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.
You know what happens in the future?
No, I just know some basic maths.
Heh, your statement is fine but doesn't say that it is based on the assumption that hashing between now and then occurs at the "one block every 10 minutes" rate, which is an unknown.
I prefer the psychic approach.
I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.
You know what happens in the future?
No, I just know some basic maths.
^ Don't you?
I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.
You know what happens in the future?
I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.
At block 179,424 now, there are 212.15 days left presuming 10 minutes per block going forward until the adjustment. That lands it at the beginning of the day, December 8th.
Heh, the last difficulty adjustment was down 8% and halfway through the next it is down about 4%. So even though difficulty is higher than a month ago, the estimated arrival of block 210,000 (using the target of 144 blocks / day) has been pushed back, to middle of the day, December 9th, 2012.
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc
- http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png
Bettors are still on the side of a Dec 9th or earlier arrival:
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
But looks like difficulty finally caught up to the BTC/USD and is stuck around these levels until either more efficient technology (including acquisition cost) arrives or the BTC/USD begins to move.
- http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png
I have a script that projects what the date of the first 25 BTC block will be based on the current block rate. It's been doing it for the last month or so every day. It's currently somewhere between December 7th and 8th (times are GTM+1): http://pastebin.com/bTaEHADP
Script is here in case anyone's interested: http://pastebin.com/SnybcMKF
Script is here in case anyone's interested: http://pastebin.com/SnybcMKF
I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.
Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.
But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.
Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe. That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.
So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).
As it stands, I see no reason why the difficulty is going to fall anytime soon with all the new FPGAs already ordered or coming online that will remain profitable even if the price drops to half of what it is now. I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.
On the other hand, if you think the price is going to drop sharply then difficulty could go down again as tons of GPU miners go offline. I don't personally see that happening anytime soon. We had a good 6 months of early-adopter GPU mining before the difficulty/price really started to explode around the 9 month mark and anyone could GPU mine easily. Even CPU mining became profitable again for a short while.
I think with the FPGAs we're going to see GPU mining start to die off and the difficulty rise well before the 25 BTC reward drop. The only thing I'm not certain of is if the price increases will be as sharp as they were last summer.
I think the only reason why the difficulty has dropped over the last month or so was the elimination of that botnet. It would seem that we've actually been increasing in difficulty steadily since January otherwise.
On the other hand, if you think the price is going to drop sharply then difficulty could go down again as tons of GPU miners go offline. I don't personally see that happening anytime soon. We had a good 6 months of early-adopter GPU mining before the difficulty/price really started to explode around the 9 month mark and anyone could GPU mine easily. Even CPU mining became profitable again for a short while.
I think with the FPGAs we're going to see GPU mining start to die off and the difficulty rise well before the 25 BTC reward drop. The only thing I'm not certain of is if the price increases will be as sharp as they were last summer.
I think the only reason why the difficulty has dropped over the last month or so was the elimination of that botnet. It would seem that we've actually been increasing in difficulty steadily since January otherwise.
Update:
Well, that latest adjustment certainly moved the needle a bit.
At block 179,424 now, there are 212.15 days left presuming 10 minutes per block going forward until the adjustment. That lands it at the beginning of the day, December 8th.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
- http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png
It's turning into quite a contest!
Well, that latest adjustment certainly moved the needle a bit.
At block 179,424 now, there are 212.15 days left presuming 10 minutes per block going forward until the adjustment. That lands it at the beginning of the day, December 8th.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
- http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png
Yeah, I didn't see the other reading at all until pointed out.
I imagine people read the bible the same way, completely oblivious to the authors true intention.
Thus is the folly of the written word.
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