Topic: Date for 25 BTC per Block - page 3. (Read 34970 times)
Has anyone setup an officiial block party irc channel yet?
Reward-Drop ETA: 2012-11-28 22:58:41 UTC (4 days, 11 hours, 30 minutes)
bitcoinclock.com
lol, nice bump.
yes, the reward drop is in UTC, but i guess i can write that on the site...
bitcoinclock.com
This clock does not tell in which timezone it is. Two guesses; either local or UTC? Anyway, it should be noted on the site. No feedback address there?
I noticed that a couple of weeks ago. Fortunately now they added this "1 week, 4 days, 14 hours, 30 minutes", which is true wherever you are.
In fact, from looking at that along with the time, you can calculate exactly that the time shown is UTC.
Very cool... how accurate is this?
It's an estimate as it can't know either future hashing capacity or variance.
In 2011 there were adjustment periods with so much new capacity coming online that it took just 8 or 9 days to reach the next difficulty adjustment period. (The fastest was in 2010, in under 4 days). Later in October 2011, as a few miners were powering down it took 17 days to reach the next adjustment period.
But since early June there have been a dozen increases in a row though by relatively small amounts (near 10% or less), and so far the current one is about even with no increase or decrease apparent right now.
So with just about 10 days left, the resulting likely time range is narrowing.
If you are in the U.S., it is looking quite likely that the halving will occur on Wednesday Nov. 28th. Though it is entirely possible that more capacity could come online and it occur on the 27th, or it could slow and it would be later on the 29th. We could see an even earlier date if at the 11th hour here some ASIC capacity were to reach Bitcoin main net, but there's nobody saying that is likely to occur. And I doubt many miners are powering down their hardware yet, so I don't think we'll see a slowing.
Very cool... how accurate is this?
This clock does not tell in which timezone it is. Two guesses; either local or UTC? Anyway, it should be noted on the site. No feedback address there?
I noticed that a couple of weeks ago. Fortunately now they added this "1 week, 4 days, 14 hours, 30 minutes", which is true wherever you are.
This clock does not tell in which timezone it is. Two guesses; either local or UTC? Anyway, it should be noted on the site. No feedback address there?
Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
i wanna know the minute it's set to halve
haha, you will know only after the fact. It's kinda like with radioactive decay: you never know exactly when shit happens and you can only make probabilistic assertions over periods of time.
ftfy
Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
i wanna know the minute it's set to halve
haha, you will know only after the fact. It's kinda like with radioactive decay: you never know exactly when shit happens and you can only make probabilistic assertions over periods of time.
Hopefully probabilistic uncertainty is the only common property of reward dropping and radioactive decay.
Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
i wanna know the minute it's set to halve
haha, you will know only after the fact. It's kinda like with radioactive decay: you never know exactly when shit happens and you can only make probabilistic assertions over periods of time.
Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
Yeah, duh, that's pretty much what it says on bitcoinclock.com.
i wanna know the minute it's set to halve
Well that's probably more determined more by luck now than anything. It is looking like either sometime on the 29th (GMT) or possibly late in the day (again, GMT) on the 28th.
So it is getting pretty safe to say that if you were to attend an all-day "halving day" party on Wednesday, Nov 28th, 2012 in the U.S., you would be present to raise your glass for a toast at the point that block 210,000 is solved.
Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
i wanna know the minute it's set to halve
Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
Only bitcoinclock.com comes to mind.
i know the countdown's styling is still ugly, but i'm happy to share my code:
Code:
$blockcount=file_get_contents('http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount');
$remaining_time = (210000 - ($blockcount % 210000)) * 600;
$date_estimate = date('Y-m-d H:i:s', time() + $remaining_time);
$r_seconds = $remaining_time % 60;
$time = ($remaining_time - $r_seconds) / 60;
$r_minutes = $time % 60;
$time = ($time - $r_minutes) / 60;
$r_hours = $time % 24;
$time = ($time - $r_hours) / 24;
$r_days = $time % 7;
$time = ($time - $r_days) / 7;
$r_weeks = $time;
$r_parts = array();
if ($r_weeks > 0) $r_parts[] = ($r_weeks == 1) ? '' . $r_weeks .' week' : '' . $r_weeks .' weeks';
if ($r_days > 0) $r_parts[] = ($r_days == 1) ? '' . $r_days .' day' : '' . $r_days .' days';
if ($r_hours > 0) $r_parts[] = ($r_hours == 1) ? '' . $r_hours .' hour' : '' . $r_hours .' hours';
if ($r_minutes > 0) $r_parts[] = ($r_minutes == 1) ? '' . $r_minutes .' minute' : '' . $r_minutes .' minutes';
$r_str = implode(', ', $r_parts);
?>
Code:
Reward-Drop ETA: echo $date_estimate; ?> (echo $r_str; ?>)
the code is ugly too, but it works
Only bitcoinclock.com comes to mind.
2052, OMG it is actually going to happen.
shudder
where's the best btc block halve countdown clocks?
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