We will hit 200 sat soon(weeks,months), This will double with speculation . It's up to the miners and dedicated investors not to sell for less than what they'd think the price would be one year from now. Even if they are day traders wanting to make small gains
So, just for fun, I thought I'd pull out the calculator and drum up a low end "ballpark" figure, and, using the most conservative long term averaged estimate I think possible (which is to say that the real cost will most probably be much higher), in order to mine (create/bring into existance/produce) all the projected 21 billion DGB, the total electricity cost in USD terms will be roughly 10 million dollars. That, translated into satoshi, would be approximately 206 SAT - the lowest of the low ball figures. And that's only the electricity cost!
And we’ve also got to tack on fixed hardware investment costs to that rough 200 SAT figure. I estimate that a low ball figure for that would be another 25% or so – roughly another 50 SAT. Then, people want to get paid for their time, and, obviously, there is time that goes into mining, like initial setup and maintenance. Add another 50 SAT. Early stage venture capital investments usually look for at least a 7.5x return on their investment, so that would take our base price up to 2,250 SAT. What happens then is that the early stage venture capitalists sell to late stage venture capitalists who look for something around 3 times investment – 6,750 SAT. Once we have a mature and proven product that qualifies as investment grade, “normal” investors begin to participate, and they expect to see at least a 10% annual return for investing in still relatively young and risky products, and that would take us to 17,500 SAT, which would still be substantially below DigiBytes’ intended target of 1000:1 with BTC. With today’s BTC pricing by the way, that would almost be a nickel, while the 1000:1 target would be a quarter, or 0.25 USD, the perfect micro-payment value that DGB should have by the time it becomes a widely accepted monetary unit used for micro-payments (and I forgot to mention fiat inflation - one of the main reasons for investing in crytographic digital currencies - which, over a 10 year period of time could cause the value of both BTC and DGB to skyrocket, leaving all my conservative estimates behind in the dust).
What happens in real life though is that, just like there is a lag time in the early stages in price reflecting what early investors with foresight envision, there is an eventual inflexion point where psychology inverts and investors 'suddenly' move beyond simplistic analysis and wake up to the long term price potential, and that's when future potential is suddenly "discounted" positively and price, instead of lagging, begins to surge well in advance of projected expectations. The long and the short of this is that, while it may take many years for DGB to actually become the operative micro-payment vehicle is intends to be, it may be priced as such years in advance of actually achieving that goal.
Hi HR. I don't know if you saw it, but Coindesk published an article about ALFAquotes ... they use a similar method (as yours above) to calculate valuation for BTC. So, you're obviously ahead of the curve. I 100% agree with you that the current market value of DGB is well below where it will be in the future. Although, as much as I agree, I'm not entirely convinced by arguments that work toward an "intrinsic valuation" of any digital currency - at least not one that's independent of other external variables. Still,, I agree with your broad discussion of value, and thought it was fun that the Digibyte community was posting these ideas days before they went mainstream.