Topic: Dollar coming to an end - page 11. (Read 34949 times)

True story..... No one would want to be in the Euro over the dollar anymore!

US Dollars is going to rule the world as long as USA lives.

I was thinking only Euro is strong enough to challange $'s power but $ just kicked €'s a** as he did BTC's a few months ago.

People are judging the value of their btc against the dollar in one breath and calling the dollar dead in the next, what a joke !

Yeah, I am no expert but I do believe that there is a good bargain to be had in the oil sector right now.

The oil price will likely rise again within 2 years

If the oil price stays below $50, that could be bad investment.

That scenario is exactly what I would call "bust".  And it has already begun.  It just hasn't played out to the end-game yet.

My views are consistent with the expectations voiced by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard recently (in the Telegraph), that "a world awash with excess capacity cannot withstand a fully-fledged dollar tightening shock. The effects will ricochet back into the US eventually, but that could be a long time hence, and this in a sense is the problem for asset markets."


As the U.S. wealth distribution shifts to Gini extremes, the ability of the population to effectively back the USD declines with their declining share of tax burden.  Those who are able (the few wealthy) are disinclined to expend their wealth backing the USD.  They rotate offshore first.  They will avoid the tax burden, so they cannot be expected to support the currency.


Of course not.  They are first into the lifeboats.  Death by drowning is reserved for steerage class passengers.  Heck, that's what lifeboats are *for*.

Furthermore a currency that is basically a "world currency", like the dollar, Euro, Yaun and others to fall into dust so to speak, everyone should use other currencies for trading and avoid these currencies, which you can't. Why is that? because it is easy, fast, reliable ( to certain extent) because it has a government backing the currency ( which is saying every resident of said country is backing that coin/currency), etc.

I believe that "fiat" currency and digital currency ( though your paycheck is also digital when it arrives on your bank account)will continue to co-exist for a long time... or something catastrpohic should happen ( in the financial sector... like the news that "every single gold bar reserve of the US fed reserve are fakes") then it is likely that a currency potentially "could" find itself in a major "S** storm". Still the elites, banks etc are in charge and do you really think they give everything up without a fight?

Nope the dollar isn't going "to end". This article is clearly written to bet an S load of shares and tweets about what is right  and wrong  with everything in between. Looking to the past and "copy/pasting" it to a current day problem/situation is one of the first big "no-no"s that are being hammered in at quality universities all over the world. That this "dude" did that doesn't give much value to his mindless ramblings. Besides a currency doesn't go "bust" suddenly, they just print out more money under the guise of some .......( insertion place for the politicians motivation)reason.   

Taking loans in Dollar to buy mining companies, oil companies, gold or bitcoin seem like the trade of 2015

thresher, you're like the guy who gives no credence to global warming because the winter is cold.

i keep saying the dollar is going to be strong for while yet.  when the squeeze on dollar shorts is over (which will take a while, since there are so many USD denominated loans offshore), then we'll see what the next phase looks like.  It may be a hyper- phase, or it may not yet.  An eventual hyper- phase is inevitable, however.  It's just math.

Am I the only person who doesn't get my news off youtube?

The dollar is continuing to strengthen from every piece of news I've seen....but then this fact is true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvYN0oUzVzo

Why does it have to be an extreme event? Why couldn't it be just quite higher inflation? 5-8% would be enough, and anything higher, with two digits, would cause panic. The only reason I see for hyperinflation is that the mood can't be managed, but after it didn't happen in the 70's I see no reason to expect it now.

If the FED becomes the only buyer the Dollar will tank and loose most its value. We will risk hyperinflation.

dollar will not be end..

Dollar comes an End? Well, just adjusting the way since there are many people believing BTC.

The Fed will always be there to buy bonds.  So it's not a problem.  Move along.

It may be against the law to default on US (federal) government debt however if the US is not able to raise enough money to pay it's bondholders then it will have no choice but to default. There may become a point where potential investors will not be willing to lend to the US federal government at any price (interest rate)

Investors are buying the Nikkei, and selling Yen.  It's hardly running from Japan to US.  Anyhow, you seem to take my prediction that the dollar will end in hyperinflation as implying that the dollar should be losing value relative to other currencies.  That is non sequitur.


I spent a few months implementing various models of the yield curve (or surface), so I have a pretty good idea.  Predictively modelling the yield curve would be extremely leveragable, so I invested quite a bit of time into it, until I ran into a brick wall trying to solve a boundary value problem in Hilbert space.  I might return to it later if I have more time for basic research.


I don't perceive anything gloomy about it.  Doom just means final fate.  Yes, I perceive the doom of the USD as coming 1 day closer with each passing day.  If you do not, then your perception of time is, shall we say, idiosyncratic, or your vision simply does not extend as far into the future.  I suppose that any outcome or event seems gloomy to those who are unprepared for it.  To those who see their plans bear fruit, the outcome is tasty and sweet -- or at least is not an unbuffered shock.


The first is true, the second is absolutely false.  Some very large holders of USD debt are gradually liquidating already and have been doing so for quite some time.  QE was a god-send for them as it was a huge opportunity to exit without slippage.


The monthly balance of trade has declined from -35bn USD one year ago, to -43bn USD at last report.  Meanwhile, DXY went from 80 to 90.  Methinks your explanation is lacking in evidence.  Methinks the facts are actually supportive of my view, that Japan has left the domain of perceived sovereign risklessness, for the same reasons that the U.S. will one day step outside that pale.


I am bearish gold on a short time frame, bearish on a medium time frame, and bullish on a long time frame.  I doubt you understand what I think.  I am long USDJPY, for example.  That does not mean that it is any less obvious to me that USD will not eventually face the same terminal decline as JPY.  It just means not yet.

Kicking the can down the road works until you run out of road.  A long-term prediction can be perfectly right in the long-term, while being completely wrong in every intervening time period.  I am pretty sure we have at least another 6-9 months of blind faith in central planning being the dominating force in financial markets globally.

Your challenging remarks are appreciated.  Your juvenile remarks are not.  I'm torn as to whether it is good or bad that you should run away.

The US has a 500 Billions negative trade balance and the Dollar will be less use while there are plenty of Dollar around.