Don't bet against the public? - page 10.

aioc

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited.

Do you have data or even a study on this one, I don't think that's the case, You can learn all the terminology and still have fun, its recommended that you do that, We must not judge bettors whether they want it for fun or for profit

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In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Whether you want to make profit or enjoy the game, winning should be your main goal, but on making fun, its not a pressured win. It also applies to this; you can learn all the terminology. Whatever your goal is, your goal should not be an hindrance.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Betting against your arguments and experience is the worst thing a gambler or betting enthusiast can do. We always draw conclusions over time and remember them, and if you bet against your experience, then this is just an unsystematic activity that will sooner or later wipe out the deposit. Even if such bets coincide with the majority. You need to draw conclusions and use them even if they lead to a losing streak. You can't go against yourself.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

For most people, betting is really a hobby, but a hobby can sometimes grow into something more, or even bring in very tangible profits. How much a player is ready to delve into the subject of betting will depend only on what profit he is able to receive, but it is one thing to understand the entire line and know thoroughly what you can bet on, and quite another thing to be able to win. And betting on a favorite is often low odds, at which the win will be small, and the probability of losing is also high. Winning in betting is not going against the crowd, it is relying only on yourself.

Dave1

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Of course, as sports bettors, we only bet on the games that we knew from the beginning, maybe in the start we are not that aware that it could really help us to be a good bettor because of the experience that we will get.

But betting against the public or not? Still depends on you, if you see that the public is correct, then maybe it's good that you go with the flow. But there are games that you really used your own analysis and then find out that you will have to go against the public and then see if your hunch is correct or not.

YOSHIE

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

What do you mean by prohibiting contract betting, indeed public betting beliefs are always seen as biased because this strategy often assesses the favorite team with a high value in certain sports games, which usually happens in sports betting.

In my opinion, if you want to bet on a team that is not favored as you said in money line betting, it is generally seen as a loss, but make no mistake, not all public bets can win, but if you are lucky betting on the money line you will be profitable if you win, because the payout is very high, but in this case if you win even though the chances are small but you can try, who knows how you bet taking the opposite side can beat the public's bet, if you succeed you will get a lot of money.

danherbias07

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Well, most of the time the favorites are also the winners which is why they are on that side.

But I do believe that we should rely on our own analysis and not because the public tells us so. I like disagreeing with the most bet sometimes because it's either my instincts tell me or I did my own research to decide that the winner will be the underdog.
True, that those who bet for fun might not understand it but the good part about them is they can easily move on even if their bet loses. Those who did deep research and still lose will feel hurt and it will be difficult to let it go so we chase our losses which makes it wrong.
Bet for the favorite if you feel like they will really win, I think that's the answer to that. It's the public's choice and we cannot do anything about it, if we disagree then choose the other way.

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Quote from: peter0425 on October 29, 2024, 01:18:37 AM

Even though I do take the public’s opinion into consideration, I don’t make it to be a deciding factor. I still look at how the teams are performing and who I think are most likely to win based on current state and historical records. Some drama outside of the match may also affect like maybe the team is undergoing managerial changes or some players are leaving.

If there is a popular choice, you need to consider why that may be and whether it is true. Sometimes the popular choice is indeed the right one. It’s popular for a reason so it is up to you to know why and decide whether it’s valid and justified

Exactly the point, the public opinion isn't a good factor to rely on when placing a bet or deciding who win in a football match, what matters is how good a team is at the moment before you decide to select them in your bet slip, who win in a match is not the decision of the public rather what plays out in the football field do and also sometimes events may not happen they way we expect them to be because of unseen circumstances, you have given many point which i see as considerable facts.

Whichever decision we make as regarding to game of soccer is personal but what I know for sure is that many things counts as a fact for considering who wins in a football event. Lets not also forget that the referee can also be a hindrance to the so call public opinion or believe towards the final result of a football match, so anything is possible, though whatever decision we make should satisfy our curiosity but it must be in line with the recent reality of the club not some kind of emotional deceit, biased mindset and public or personal sentiment that has nothing to do with what happens in the peach.

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Quote from: lovesmayfamilis on October 29, 2024, 01:58:37 AM

Betting against the crowd is, of course, risky, but the odds will always be high. To understand this, you need good knowledge, which includes careful preparatory analysis, reading the news, and whether there is a fake background. However, people who play against a person often bet on the obvious outcome of a match when a famous team is playing—a grand, without analyzing what form it is in. A good analysis should consist of finding out where so much news noise comes from and whether there is someone who can benefit from this noise. But constantly betting against the crowd is probably not the right strategy, since sometimes the crowd can bet in the right direction, and only your experience and intuition should tell you at what specific moment you need to play against.

What that is very funny to me is that the public are losing while the betting site is making huge amount of money from its customers. If a person decide to go against the public, what that will be noticed is that the person lose more than before. So if go against the public or he bet on what the public choose, there is still always high probability of losing in long term. Also the more the person bet frequently, the higher the rate the person will be losing. Normally betting against the public is riskier and I do not think it is worth it. If someone make analyses, such person will still bet on what the public bet on.

lizarder

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

The words success in betting can be measured from where, is it related to winning or vice versa? In the category you mean I think it depends on how much luck and maybe sports betting is more rational because we bet based on previous analysis so winning or losing is based on someone's level of intelligence in analyzing the match. Although there is no guarantee when you do a betting analysis on a match and it is also not certain that it can be won because gambling sometimes requires luck that is inseparable from it.

For the question of luck, it goes back to each individual and how someone's ability is in betting and when hoping for consistent wins, it is impossible for betting to provide the level of success that we want and I don't think about success in any bet.

avp2306

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Well its like you are betting on underdogs, So provably its possible and it really happens. Its just you know how to take the risk towards this since by it means that lots of people like to bet on that team they believe that this is strong team and possible that there's huge chance for them to win compare to their opponent.

But somehow for those people who want to take the risk its a "high risk,high reward" for them.

We also need to see that game to know if there's a chance for us to win even if we bet on underdog since if we just bet randomly without knowing that there's lacking players which give them more disadvantage then provably that we will end up a total loser with that choices.

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Betting against the public would be betting on the underdog. If your analysis yields that as the possible outcome then by all means go with it. Underdogs sometimes win and allow their backing betters to make good profits but this is like giving out a bet of 10x win with a low chance of winning. You have to accept that risk or losing it all having the higher chance.

Ultimately it is just a question of your analysis and what you are comfortable betting with.

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In my case, I have always had a rule:" do not put feelings into it when I analyze games, do not bet on a game just because it is the favorite or people think it will win ". When I look at a game, I don't take seriously the odds I see for each team. I prefer to analyze both teams in a scenario where both teams have a 50% - 50% chance of winning. After I finish my analysis, I choose the team that I consider to have the best chance of winning. I have seen people who only bet on the favorite or the underdog. But I wonder if these people have really managed to achieve success in sports betting by doing this. OP, are you betting against the public? If your answer is yes, are you making a profit in the long term?

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

What do you really mean by betting against ourselves? Of course betting can be P2P or you bet on the casino or gambling house but whichever kind of betting we involve in, the aim is to have a win on our side and be successful. So both kind of gambling guarantees success only when you bet and take the right decision to it. Do your analysis, stake reasonably and expect good results but good result or success does not come easily and everytime. So you also need to be patient to achieve your gambling goal.

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Quote from: mindrust on October 29, 2024, 04:00:01 AM

That saying often works in stocks trading. I don’t think we can associate it with gambling in general. The majority of the traders usually be on the wrong side of every trade. That’s how the rich get even richer while the poor get even poorer. It is because the rich have all the tools which enables them to see who owns what. That’s why they almost never make wrong trades. You could even say the game is rigged. It probably happens sometimes in sports betting too but I don’t think it happens as often as it happens in trading.

Sorry....But I can’t quite connect how this relates to trading, or if it does at all, but probably not most of the time. If we use the Bitcoin market as an example, the public sentiment right now is that the market is in a bullish phase, and the price is still rising. However, that doesn’t really connect to sports betting, which is based on individual games or actions.

For instance, if there’s a team on a winning streak and most of their wins are by double digits, and then they have a game where they’re favored by -2.5, the public sentiment is likely to be, “We’ll take that -2.5.” It seems like easy money since they’ve been winning comfortably, but in reality, once the game is over, that team with the -2.5 spread could end up experiencing their first loss.

Bookies know how to trap the public; they set the -2.5 line based on the stats they analyze against the opposing team. However, since the public focuses more on the past successes, they often overlook that the other team is also strong. As a result, the spread gets overvalued due to public sentiment.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

~

Why would you ever consider the public before the team themselves? I also wouldn't say it's a "rule" in the first place that bettors should uphold. It just means that the judgement you'd be making is still 100% dependent on the team, not on who's the favorite or not. If your analysis ends up voting for the underdog, then go for it. Higher possible profits for you then. Doesn't mean you should deny bets that result in you betting on the favorites though.

And idk what success you want in gambling really, it's gambling. I don't think you'd ever see someone go from broke to rich in this scene. Maybe 1% of us, but for the majority? It's a place where you both lose and earn money almost equally.

mindrust

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That saying often works in stocks trading. I don’t think we can associate it with gambling in general. The majority of the traders usually be on the wrong side of every trade. That’s how the rich get even richer while the poor get even poorer. It is because the rich have all the tools which enables them to see who owns what. That’s why they almost never make wrong trades. You could even say the game is rigged. It probably happens sometimes in sports betting too but I don’t think it happens as often as it happens in trading.

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I would say that betting against public, or favorite, or popular selection is the only way to win a huge amount. Sports betting history is full of cases when underdog create upsets and people multiply their bets several times. When it comes about sports betting, I prefer either to bet on a team I support, or if two unknown to me teams or athletes compete, bet on a underdog. It makes watching event more interesting, if my bet wins, the reward will be really good. I see it as following: risk factor exist in every bet. So instead of betting on something low odds, I would go with something with +2.00 odd instead.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

This is gambling, if you really want to win it is better to put that energy into something that have higher chances of bringing you good results, do you know why I choose fun over winning money?

1. It doesn't matter what you study about gambling or what you think you know you can easily get wrecked because of gambling, losses is far more sure than winning.

2. Football is fun already, since I want to feel the thrill of the matches it is not a must to use money and place bet, this makes the experience even better.

It is not a must to gamble simply because you want to make money, the thrill from the games are more than enough, and if you feel like making money isn't bad maybe because you are certain about the game then risk very little, still there is a high chance that you will lose.

For many people that creates topic like this, I've always wondered if they will keep doing so if they hit the jackpot already, I bet they won't have time for this forum.

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I think sports betting is more popular in the world and people prefer to bet on their favorite team. However, gamblers may be more motivated to place their bets in favor of the stronger team because their main objective is to win. If someone participates in betting for entertainment, he will participate in betting against his favorite team because he respects his favorite team a lot and is a blind fan. You may come under a lot of pressure when you want to express your opinion against a larger public, but if you are fair, you will win.

Sports betting can often be held collectively among different groups of people but if you are outnumbered alone, you should make the next decision on a case by case basis. The tendency to gamble for fun can be ideal for a gambler and he is more likely to become addicted.

mu_enrico

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I think in the long run, people who consistently bet on better risk vs return (good odds) will end up in profit. It doesn't matter whether you bet on the favorite or the underdog. But yeah the problem is to determine whether or not the odd is worth it as it will take a great amount of analysis and expertise. Even if you are an expert in analyzing odds & matches, there will be a luck factor as well. This issue is why I don't like to bet on sports since you need to consider the odds and the match itself, which is too much effort for a pastime activity.

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