Topic: Don't bet against the public? - page 5. (Read 2883 times)

Exactly so. But it was an experiment, when even if i was sure that the bet would lose - i made it. I was ready to such result, so i wasn`t disappointed with the losing money.
But know i`m sure that you have to believe your own analyze. At least any decision would be your decision and you can`t say that you lost your money due to somebody`s advice.

Perhaps what you did we can call "making bets in accordance with public opinion". And the fact that you lost is quite natural, simply because you were much more focused on the generally accepted vision of the situation with a specific game and did not particularly engage in your own assessment of possible options for the development of the game. This seems to me to be a very common practice of many players.
And this is humanly understandable, especially considering the fact that many people in life try to trust more authoritative specialists, who, by the way, sometimes make mistakes.
And this is most likely worth taking into account.

Exactly. I made one experiment 2 months ago. I made deposit $100 and made $10 bets for odds less than 1.2. I won about 70% of bets but it wasn`t enough even to stay with the $100. I refilled bankroll and tried to make bets with odds less than 1.1. Winrate increased, but even 80% wasn`t enough.
As the result, i lost all the money in 3 weeks.
The problem was that i decided don`t analyze events - i just made bets for all such events. I think that it means "bet with the public".

That's the thing, this happens quite often. If, for example, we try to calculate the result of the ratio of successful wins predicted by the public and those bets that go against the public, then the result will probably surprise us all, since in my opinion it will be only 55/45 or at best 60/40. I think that this is approximately so in those situations, of course, when the result is not too obvious to all players and just to all people. For example, the result of a hypothetical game between a yard football team and Manchester United is clear to everyone in advance.

Oups, i`ve mistaken. I read "Bet against the public"  
I was in the betting with strategy "Bet against bookie". In this strategy the purpose was to find the event with bookie mistake. It makes possible to find winning events with odds  3-5. So i can`t say that the public is clever enough in such situations. Lots of times i saw how the public bets the lowest odd and lose.

People wants the easy way to place their bet and if they can get the choice from the public, they will use it without think about if the choice will be right or wrong. What they care is how they can win from the match or event so that public choice will help them to decide fast without analyze anything.

They realize that if they analyze one by one, that will consume more time and they can be late to place their bet. We can not let ourselves lose in the match but we willing to use public choice to place a bet.

If they have so much experienced in gambling and can analyze the match better, they will not just accept what public choice. They will trying to analyze more to find why public choose that so they know the reason and they can follow or choose the opponent. They don't just follow the public choice especially if they don't know anything about the match because finding more information about the match is a must for them. They don't want to waste their money by picking the public choice without knowing the truth.

That is why we must trying to analyze more with the public choice so we can know why they do that. We can not let us follows something that we don't know and needs to make sure that we follow the right choice. When we can have our choice to place a bet, we will not feels sad when we lose the money because we know that is the consequences that we may face in gambling. We just accept the outcome and will try to place a bet in the next days.

Of course, you can't think about different little things when playing, because then we will start thinking about everything like computers that try to calculate everything and even then not get a result, so why not just think about it, but just play and enjoy the moment. Probably these are the happiest players who were lucky enough to win like that and who did not strain themselves too much. The main thing after that is that the winnings are saved, and not gone so frivolously.

I agree with you that most gamblers lose and still find more interest in continuing to gamble. Gambling is an addiction for many people which they can't quit even if they want to but at present their willpower is enough to get rid of the addict because he needs a lot of money to continue gambling regularly. There are also some gamblers who take part in gambling for fun and continue to gamble even if they lose. For them the tendency to lose means that they tend to continue playing more because they consider gambling as entertainment rather than a source of income.

That’s true, but without disciplined bankroll management, success is out of reach. Choosing your odds wisely is just as important. If you’re betting on odds at a minimum of -110, you need to hit that magic win rate of 53% to break even long term.

The real question is, do we have the discipline to stay consistent and gamble long term to hit that target? It’s not just about luck; it’s about sticking to the strategy and playing the long game.

If you believe the statistics, most players lose more than they win, so you could assume that public opinion in choosing a bet is a bad choice, because this bet will fall into bad statistics. In fact, I do not worry much about how much my bet can coincide with the bets of other players, because I do not try to understand how much this coincidence is, I just bet on what I think is a good choice. )

This is of course correct.
But I probably know from my own experience how much the public opinion can influence which team is worth betting on at the moment, on the player's decision. Especially on the decision of an inexperienced player. All the same, the thought gets stuck in his head that the crowd of people, including already experienced players, most likely do not make mistakes. However, over time and with the accumulation of experience in the game, you begin to treat public opinion completely differently, especially in situations with approximately equal chances of winning and the absence of a clear favorite in these bets.
For example, I now also do not pay much attention to what public opinion says, also because now they have learned to manipulate this very public opinion and you can no longer trust this information in principle.

I guess you should try it out yourself. If you’re already doubting the system, you’ll never really know its potential, and you’ll just stick to the general belief that most sports bettors lose in the long run, no matter the strategy.

This method of “don’t bet against the public” has been around for a reason, people find it interesting. Sure, some have probably succeeded while others failed, but that’s just how it goes. No strategy guarantees wins; it’s all about finding what works for you.

This is what they are counting on. Many people do not want or cannot independently analyze events. This really requires time, effort and mental capacity. I know many people who find it incredibly difficult to use the thought process, as it quickly tires them out and leads to depression. What did you think? This is a fact and it is difficult to argue with it. My colleagues told me exactly that they do not want to think, but only obey and follow the crowd. It is much easier this way.

There is a good saying:
"To swim against the current, the fish must be strong. And even a dead fish can swim with the current."

As for me it is silly enough to try to become a successful gambler with such strategy. You can win several times, but the main part of the bets would be lost.
Such bets are possible for fun, or if you have some interesting information, or if the bookie mistaken.
I saw wins with the odds 100+, but i haven`t seen big bets on such odds.

In sports betting we are indeed required to analyze first before placing a bet and we do not have to follow the public sometimes we also have our own choices depending on the opportunities given, sometimes bookies can also manipulate the odds so we also cannot fully trust the odds, in sports betting there are also many choices to bet on and sometimes the favorite team does not always win when facing the teams below it depending on their latest performance and usually their inconsistency can be a benchmark.

The collective mind can change personal mind especially if that is about betting as we may think that many people already have the same choice. We may easily to follow them and will not let the chance is gone. With that choice, some people thinks that is the right time to place with a big bet because they believe that collective minds can be right and have a chance to win the bet. And that can makes a person will not want to analyze the bet but just follow what the public choose.

Yes, a public forecast can easily change someone forecast because they don't see their prediction can be the winner and makes them not confident with their prediction. But when they see public opinion and have many people follow the prediction, they will easily change their choice and follow the same prediction. We don't have to do the same thing before we analyzes the prediction or the candidates because we must responsible with our money and not easy to follow other people choice. But no matters what you choose, you need to think about how much money you will use.

Maybe there is not much point for us in listening someone's opinion but that will not be like that for other people because many people wants the easiest thing without having difficulty to analyze the bet. When they get more information about the prediction and see many people have the same pick, they will just follow without think too long. They think that public opinion will have more chances to win especially if they can see some influencers also say the same thing so that will be easily for us to just follow and doing the same thing like them.

You are right if the rupture club is obsessively stronger than my favorite team, then I will put a bet on the favorite, I don’t see anything bad in this. To the right emotions, there is definitely no place in the bets, so you can make many unnecessary mistakes for which my finances will suffer first of all. If for whom then this is the principle not to put on the opponent’s team then it is better to skip this event and calmly watch the match without a bet

It's like a gem if we manage to locate the possible upset from an underdog team, it's not easy though as you mentioned that there are lots of factors that you need to analyze before picking your bets, I do see that there are gamblers who understand well the type of games or sports that they are playing as they manage to pick side either following the public or bet against it, as long as they do their research and they believe that the possibilities that upset can be done then it worth the risk for them.

Like what you said, following the public doesn't assure us that it will generate us the win though it's a hint from the house that the chance is better when they put the odds and allow the public to follow what they've think got the upper hands between the two opposing squads.

I don't see much point in listening to someone's opinion when it comes to your money. If I'm going to risk my money, then I'll also make the decision on what to bet on myself, and it doesn't matter to me how popular this bet will be among other players. Most often, bets are made on the favorite, but the favorite will also most often win, so playing against the majority or with them is not as important as missing a match where the favorite will lose. If it will be a mistake and a loss, then let it be my choice, so that I don't blame anyone.

When a player bets on his favorite teams, it is far from a thorough analysis, because such bets turn into entertainment and faith that the team will start winning every match even against a stronger opponent. Of course, this can happen extremely rarely and this team can win 5 matches in a row, but what if not. What if it plays the same as before or loses more. The player does not want to believe it, but his belief will not make the team play better. Everything is only in good physical training, tactics, understanding of each other by the players, their teamwork, the atmosphere in the team and the coach and many other reasons. I have never bet on a team because I am more for it.