Topic: Don't bet against the public? - page 8. (Read 3723 times)

By the way, I think that it is right to consider this serious reason as intuition. When the chances of winning are approximately equal and going with the public is approximately equal to betting against the public, in these circumstances only intuition can determine your choice. However, sometimes intuition can even tell you that it is worth betting against the public even if public opinion is overwhelmingly on the opposite side. Sometimes this works. And it is especially interesting to do this when you have the appropriate protest mood, which sometimes happens with all players, and with all people in general. Then, by the way, even a loss is experienced more easily and does not cause too much of a negative attitude.

I believe in sport there are many tool to determine the final act for you to bet on which side of the team. For example most of the winning that I saw is bet along with the public but there some occasion that you do need against the public and sometimes you won the game.

Since everything is 50.50 and anything could be happen but for me I will go with the public rather against it unless there is some a hug reason to not go with the public

There's only one metric that counts, and that's money.

If you managed to earn more than what you bet, then you won.

If you paid more for collecting your winnings, then you lost.

As simple as that.

It can happen in a day, or in a lifetime.

Why don't you trust your intuition? It's your subconscious that knows best what to do. On the contrary, it's an incredibly powerful biological computer that is capable of a lot. It's a shame you ignore it. Listen to your mind and you'll win bets much more often.

I'm not really into betting. More into slots. This is the first time I've heard that bets can be sold. This is something new for me.

I try not to believe intuition. I believe my analyze. If i change my mind due to my intuition i prefer not to bet. If i watch the game and see something strange - i don`t bet or try to sell bet. I didn`t count but i think that winrate in such situation 50/50.
Of course, it is about betting for money. Sometimes, when i gamble for fun, for emotions - i bet without analyze, using only intuition and my feeling during the match.

And how can you guess when a team, for example, will start playing well and in harmony? I believe that no one can know. After all, these bets are like 50/50. As luck would have it. Few people manage to predict the correct result. That is why so many bookmaker sites are opening. The owners have already realized that this is impossible, but you can make a lot of money on it. People will always have excitement. So why not use it for the benefit of making money?

Well, the fact that it was an experiment explains everything and puts everything in its proper place.
And you are absolutely right that you can listen to all sorts of advice from experts, specialists and public opinion, which is widespread at the moment, of course, but the final decision on the bet should still be made based on your own understanding of the current moment and your own forecast of upcoming events. Sometimes, in addition to your own analysis of the data, intuition also helps in this matter. This is what I can now say with confidence, that intuition still more often does not let us down than deceives us. The latter also takes place, of course, but that is what the game is for, to sometimes be completely unpredictable.

Exactly so. But it was an experiment, when even if i was sure that the bet would lose - i made it. I was ready to such result, so i wasn`t disappointed with the losing money.
But know i`m sure that you have to believe your own analyze. At least any decision would be your decision and you can`t say that you lost your money due to somebody`s advice.

Perhaps what you did we can call "making bets in accordance with public opinion". And the fact that you lost is quite natural, simply because you were much more focused on the generally accepted vision of the situation with a specific game and did not particularly engage in your own assessment of possible options for the development of the game. This seems to me to be a very common practice of many players.
And this is humanly understandable, especially considering the fact that many people in life try to trust more authoritative specialists, who, by the way, sometimes make mistakes.
And this is most likely worth taking into account.

Exactly. I made one experiment 2 months ago. I made deposit $100 and made $10 bets for odds less than 1.2. I won about 70% of bets but it wasn`t enough even to stay with the $100. I refilled bankroll and tried to make bets with odds less than 1.1. Winrate increased, but even 80% wasn`t enough.
As the result, i lost all the money in 3 weeks.
The problem was that i decided don`t analyze events - i just made bets for all such events. I think that it means "bet with the public".

That's the thing, this happens quite often. If, for example, we try to calculate the result of the ratio of successful wins predicted by the public and those bets that go against the public, then the result will probably surprise us all, since in my opinion it will be only 55/45 or at best 60/40. I think that this is approximately so in those situations, of course, when the result is not too obvious to all players and just to all people. For example, the result of a hypothetical game between a yard football team and Manchester United is clear to everyone in advance.

Oups, i`ve mistaken. I read "Bet against the public"  
I was in the betting with strategy "Bet against bookie". In this strategy the purpose was to find the event with bookie mistake. It makes possible to find winning events with odds  3-5. So i can`t say that the public is clever enough in such situations. Lots of times i saw how the public bets the lowest odd and lose.

People wants the easy way to place their bet and if they can get the choice from the public, they will use it without think about if the choice will be right or wrong. What they care is how they can win from the match or event so that public choice will help them to decide fast without analyze anything.

They realize that if they analyze one by one, that will consume more time and they can be late to place their bet. We can not let ourselves lose in the match but we willing to use public choice to place a bet.

If they have so much experienced in gambling and can analyze the match better, they will not just accept what public choice. They will trying to analyze more to find why public choose that so they know the reason and they can follow or choose the opponent. They don't just follow the public choice especially if they don't know anything about the match because finding more information about the match is a must for them. They don't want to waste their money by picking the public choice without knowing the truth.

That is why we must trying to analyze more with the public choice so we can know why they do that. We can not let us follows something that we don't know and needs to make sure that we follow the right choice. When we can have our choice to place a bet, we will not feels sad when we lose the money because we know that is the consequences that we may face in gambling. We just accept the outcome and will try to place a bet in the next days.

Of course, you can't think about different little things when playing, because then we will start thinking about everything like computers that try to calculate everything and even then not get a result, so why not just think about it, but just play and enjoy the moment. Probably these are the happiest players who were lucky enough to win like that and who did not strain themselves too much. The main thing after that is that the winnings are saved, and not gone so frivolously.

I agree with you that most gamblers lose and still find more interest in continuing to gamble. Gambling is an addiction for many people which they can't quit even if they want to but at present their willpower is enough to get rid of the addict because he needs a lot of money to continue gambling regularly. There are also some gamblers who take part in gambling for fun and continue to gamble even if they lose. For them the tendency to lose means that they tend to continue playing more because they consider gambling as entertainment rather than a source of income.

That’s true, but without disciplined bankroll management, success is out of reach. Choosing your odds wisely is just as important. If you’re betting on odds at a minimum of -110, you need to hit that magic win rate of 53% to break even long term.

The real question is, do we have the discipline to stay consistent and gamble long term to hit that target? It’s not just about luck; it’s about sticking to the strategy and playing the long game.

If you believe the statistics, most players lose more than they win, so you could assume that public opinion in choosing a bet is a bad choice, because this bet will fall into bad statistics. In fact, I do not worry much about how much my bet can coincide with the bets of other players, because I do not try to understand how much this coincidence is, I just bet on what I think is a good choice. )

This is of course correct.
But I probably know from my own experience how much the public opinion can influence which team is worth betting on at the moment, on the player's decision. Especially on the decision of an inexperienced player. All the same, the thought gets stuck in his head that the crowd of people, including already experienced players, most likely do not make mistakes. However, over time and with the accumulation of experience in the game, you begin to treat public opinion completely differently, especially in situations with approximately equal chances of winning and the absence of a clear favorite in these bets.
For example, I now also do not pay much attention to what public opinion says, also because now they have learned to manipulate this very public opinion and you can no longer trust this information in principle.

I guess you should try it out yourself. If you’re already doubting the system, you’ll never really know its potential, and you’ll just stick to the general belief that most sports bettors lose in the long run, no matter the strategy.

This method of “don’t bet against the public” has been around for a reason, people find it interesting. Sure, some have probably succeeded while others failed, but that’s just how it goes. No strategy guarantees wins; it’s all about finding what works for you.