Don't bet against the public? - page 7.

Dewi Aries

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Quote from: leonair on October 30, 2024, 10:28:04 AM

Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Since no one can guarantee winning in gambling, it is always better to bet according to your own prediction, at least it will have better excitement and more fun. I like to always agree with my predictions. Even if you lose in gambling, at least you get a lot of joy. When you bet on other people's predictions, you won't get much pleasure from winning that bet. So to get fun from gambling it is definitely better to bet on your prediction.

Actually in a winning situation it will still be fun regardless of whether you bet with your own decisions or rely on other people's decisions, but of course I would also suggest that it is better to bet in your own way and predictions, the reason is because when you bet in your own way and predictions then there is a possibility for you to avoid continuous curiosity, or I mean I once bet by relying on other people's predictions, but I was not sure about the prediction and one of the reasons I chose it was just because I saw that many people rely on these predictions which in the end when they lose it creates emotions and also regrets by assuming like "if only I bet with my own predictions then maybe the result would win".

But on the other hand if your goal is for entertainment and seeking pleasure then in my opinion actually betting using other people's predictions or in your own way will not cause problems because when your goal is for pleasure then that means winning is not the main priority.

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On the contrary, there are people who actually gamble for fun that still play sports betting, I disagree based on the fact that you generalized this. There are also people who are versed in sports and can analyse games properly but they play for fun only, they take sports betting as a passive routine. People are different and we all have different choices, some gamblers choose not to play for fun and not to make profit so that they won't get addicted to them, others can't really play actively because they are engaged with other things that keeps them occupied, There are gamblers that play sports betting actively but are not inclined with sports.

Lidger

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Such physical gambling is often seen to be played and after such gambling there is a lot of trouble in making money.
For example, a gambler bets on a team and if he wins, he gets paid twice. But if he loses that match for any reason and if he refuses to pay, then the opposite party will make trouble with him and try to take the money by any means. It can be seen that these issues take form from a fight to a much bigger level, as a result of which the administration intervenes in these issues. Since online casinos are so safe and there is no hassle in paying or withdrawing money, gamblers should gamble in online casinos without undue hassles so that no one knows about anyone and no one gets into an argument with anyone.

leonair

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Since no one can guarantee winning in gambling, it is always better to bet according to your own prediction, at least it will have better excitement and more fun. I like to always agree with my predictions. Even if you lose in gambling, at least you get a lot of joy. When you bet on other people's predictions, you won't get much pleasure from winning that bet. So to get fun from gambling it is definitely better to bet on your prediction.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

I love sports so I know every thing happens around the sport I watch but I am not fan of sport betting because I feel like it give pressure than the excitement in the long term and as you said I can't relate to the concept of long term success because in gambling we can't call it as success, it's just rewards and ultimately luck decides the fate of every bets irrespective of odds.

Still there are lot of people who made tons of money by following some strategy but I want to mention one thing, we never know their entire story we just see what they wanted us to see.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

Indeed, lower chances is a genuine steps to achieve more successful betting compared to those aggressive and greedy mindsets. If a person applied long term process then patience is the best formula in terms of huge results regardless if it's a win or loss situation. Despite of the hardships on determining the exact outcome, that doesn't matter as long as there's a potential positive results in every efforts we have.

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Quote from: nara1892 on October 30, 2024, 03:43:25 AM

I think our opponent is not the perspective and decision taken by the public but the opponent of the team we choose, and maybe I can also say that it is better not to involve the public in this matter, because winning in sports betting depends on how smart and how intelligent you are in analyzing a team that will compete, and also because sometimes the decision chosen by the public is not always the right decision or I mean many of them make decisions in choosing a team without being based on any consideration and analysis.

So don't think about them, focus on your own bet, don't involve the public when you are considering to reach a much more appropriate decision.
In the end, it all depends on whether you have good skills and knowledge or not about the sports betting you choose, because that's what will be more likely to bring you victory.

Absolutely true words, friend. The fact that a betting fan has a different opinion about the outcome of a match than many does not mean that he is playing against the crowd. Everyone plays against other outcomes, and makes decisions based on their experience and thoughts. Therefore, most likely, all this is a game against oneself. One's own misunderstanding, Deni and inability to analyze. And only by surpassing this can one receive Profit from betting. And what the crowd bets there is not important at all.

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Quote from: Hispo on October 29, 2024, 06:31:00 PM

Sometimes it is also good to bet on the general sentiment people have on teams, when comes to sport betting. To me it does not exist such thing as a "smart" bettor, but rather a bettor who knows their chances and use publicly known information to do their analysis and make money out of it.

Whenever people talk about going for the obvious option, when comes to sport betting I recall someone from this forum who heavily betted in favor or Argentina in the last World Cup, I think Argentina was facing some arab team, anyways, the obvious and favorite option was to bet for Argentina que pocket some money, the guy did so and ended up losing up to two thousand dollars to his back luck.
In the end of the day, it does not matter how smart and how much analysis one does, there is still a component of luck or chance which will determine the result of the match, that is a factor each bettor needs to keep in mind.

Almost every game day there is an event that will not meet the expectations of most people, but whether you bet on this event or not depends only on you. Or if it is a parley there will be many players who will include some popular event and lose, but there will be those who will ignore this event and win. Someone will say that such players are just lucky, someone will say that such players know how to analyze matches, and I think that in gambling both are important.

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Quote from: viljy on October 30, 2024, 01:38:22 AM

In fact, it is impossible to unequivocally agree with this statement. In order to bet confidently against the favorites, you need to have insider information. In all other cases, success is ensured, by and large, by chance. And this kind of betting is no different from an ordinary gambling game. Why do the favorites lose in general and those who bet on outsiders break a huge profit? Is there a reliable answer to this question? No, in each case there are a bunch of plausible explanations, that's all.

The thing is, we can’t access insider info, especially when betting on big leagues. Maybe syndicates have that advantage, but we’re just regular bettors. So, we need to make educated guesses or analyze the market to see which team might attract public bets. From there, we can decide whether to bet against them or go with the flow.

nara1892

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I think our opponent is not the perspective and decision taken by the public but the opponent of the team we choose, and maybe I can also say that it is better not to involve the public in this matter, because winning in sports betting depends on how smart and how intelligent you are in analyzing a team that will compete, and also because sometimes the decision chosen by the public is not always the right decision or I mean many of them make decisions in choosing a team without being based on any consideration and analysis.

So don't think about them, focus on your own bet, don't involve the public when you are considering to reach a much more appropriate decision.
In the end, it all depends on whether you have good skills and knowledge or not about the sports betting you choose, because that's what will be more likely to bring you victory.

viljy

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

In fact, it is impossible to unequivocally agree with this statement. In order to bet confidently against the favorites, you need to have insider information. In all other cases, success is ensured, by and large, by chance. And this kind of betting is no different from an ordinary gambling game. Why do the favorites lose in general and those who bet on outsiders break a huge profit? Is there a reliable answer to this question? No, in each case there are a bunch of plausible explanations, that's all.

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Quote from: romero121 on October 29, 2024, 06:59:40 PM

Whether you stand along with the crowd or choose the odds against it, always the luck factor has its role. With sports betting, there are instances in which odds @1.01 have lost. No one expects such a bet to be lost, which means we can't be sure of the odds favoured by the public. Whenever we choose an odd, we need to do our own prediction, considering the public selection as the reference. This will help us choose the right odd and win the bets.

But lately there have been many sports match especially football that have ended in way that is not as expected where the favorite team suffers defeat or only receives draw, clearly this will be able to provide victory when taking risks by going against the public choice which is mostly the favorite team but for me personally I would not dare to take risks like this because the results now and later in the following week may not be the same.
It is indeed better to prioritize you own predictions and that is based on statistical analysis that we can know, whatever the results are, regardless of whether they are included in the public choice or not, what is clear is that we bet based on the knowledge we have to increase the chance of getting predictions.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 29, 2024, 09:47:13 PM

It is not entirely clear what the author of the topic considers "playing against the crowd". In general, this expression apparently came from trading, ....

It is more popular in sports betting actually, by searching "betting against the public" in google, you'll see a lot of information that will pop up. Just like these articles from different popular websites.

[1] https://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/betting-against-public
[2] https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/betting-against-public/
[3] https://www.sportsinsights.com/how-to-bet-on-sports/betting-against-the-public/
[4] https://www.techopedia.com/gambling-guides/how-to-fade-the-public

Julien_Olynpic

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It is not entirely clear what the author of the topic considers "playing against the crowd". In general, this expression apparently came from trading, where it is considered the right strategy, since it is believed that the crowd is always wrong. As for sports betting, there are also several strategies that are based on the analysis of which side of the bet people put big money on. Sometimes this happens with fixed matches, when someone shares inside information and there is a large flow of money on one side of the bet. Sometimes this is an erroneous opinion of the crowd, and then such a strategy can be justified. But in general, the crowd is not always wrong. Often the crowd is right. In fact, this is the same randomness as many other things in sports betting.

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Betting against the public will certainly be more profitable if successful, for example I lost all my bets on the favorite player in a tennis match, 3-4 matches were won by the underdog, but that doesn't mean this strategy will always provide profit because many factors are considered so that athletes or teams are favored or not.
So betting on sports betting we can only predict and there is always a chance of losing even though there is also a chance of winning, and the chances remain the same even at low odds.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited.

Betting for fun as the term is widely used is not because people that bet for fun are not well knowledgeable or vast in the terminology of sport or analysis, but the bet an never take it as business since they know betting or gambling is risky no matter how smart you are. So they are fully awear about it and only stake what they can afford to lose. So that doesn't make them not terminologicaly inclined.

Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

There is no perfect or genuine way to succeed in gambling, even the so-called experts fail in there prediction or analysis. That is why it is often described as fun. Game that has no expert that can predict with %100 assurance can only be seen as fun game.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?

When we talk about success, it should be viewed as a long-term process. Some of us may not see ourselves betting long-term, which makes it hard for them to relate to this concept. If someone is just betting for fun, they likely won’t be well-versed in the terminology of sports betting, as their interest is quite limited. In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

It depends!

For long/sequential bets, betting against the public and the odds is very risky and has very low chances of winning.

Generally, bookmakers and prediction sites get the odds right and you should use this information to support your decision-making.

However, it is very interesting to bet against the public in very specific situations, but always in isolation.

Sometimes, we can have access to privileged information that most people do not yet have, or a "sixth sense" that leads us to bet on a certain unlikely result. When this happens, I believe we should take the risk because a victory against the public is an excellent way to make a lot of money that would normally only be possible with a dozen similar bets.

romero121

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Whether you stand along with the crowd or choose the odds against it, always the luck factor has its role. With sports betting, there are instances in which odds @1.01 have lost. No one expects such a bet to be lost, which means we can't be sure of the odds favoured by the public. Whenever we choose an odd, we need to do our own prediction, considering the public selection as the reference. This will help us choose the right odd and win the bets.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

The public here mainly consists of bettors who tend to bet on the favorites, whether it’s point spread or moneyline. Most suggestions we see online emphasize that to be considered a smart bettor, you should bet against the public. But what if we don’t bet against ourselves? Can we still find success in sports betting?
...

Sometimes it is also good to bet on the general sentiment people have on teams, when comes to sport betting. To me it does not exist such thing as a "smart" bettor, but rather a bettor who knows their chances and use publicly known information to do their analysis and make money out of it.

Whenever people talk about going for the obvious option, when comes to sport betting I recall someone from this forum who heavily betted in favor or Argentina in the last World Cup, I think Argentina was facing some arab team, anyways, the obvious and favorite option was to bet for Argentina que pocket some money, the guy did so and ended up losing up to two thousand dollars to his back luck.
In the end of the day, it does not matter how smart and how much analysis one does, there is still a component of luck or chance which will determine the result of the match, that is a factor each bettor needs to keep in mind.

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on October 28, 2024, 10:28:05 PM

In contrast, those who genuinely want to win will study the sports betting market and seek ways to succeed, even if the chances are slim.

You are quite correct to some extent. We all know that the sport betting market is very broad because it involves different sporting activities, which IMO, football happens to be the biggest. Now, the question should probably be, are we/you to study the betting market or to study the games?, Because IMO, the market might probably comprise of organizers, sponsors and others, but In most cases, the market itself doesn't have any effect on how games are been played.

Take the football for example, it has a very broad market involving sponsorship, partnership, betting and others. Those who wants to get their predictions right don't go about study those broader part of the market, rather, they study the teams and players.

So, what I'm actually trying to say is that those who are involved in the sport are practically the decision makers, i.e, whatever they play determines who wins a bet. And besides, in as much studying these players, forms, prev performance, etc, is very important, it's not Still a 100% guarantee that they will perform well. So, just like others have said, if you are lucky enough, then you get your predictions right.

Topic: Don't bet against the public? - page 7. (Read 1938 times)