...
iamback
Yes, I did say that Black Swans are by definition low probability, non-predictable events with a large impact (Taleb). The Austrian bank that just failed MIGHT be a mini Black Swan. But, when I learned the news (a week or so ago at ZH), they (same article) were already predicting trouble for some German banks.
What is/was the Black Swan ("Swanlette" perhaps in this case, we'll see) was the failure of the Austrian bank. If this bank is linked very strongly to other banks and starts a chain reaction, well that is a bit more predictable.
Why is it always the AUSTRIAN BANKS?? Maybe disaster happening to Austrian banks should no longer be considered Black Swans as perhaps Austrian bank disasters ARE predictable...
Topic: Economic Devastation - page 106. (Read 504811 times)
Armstrong had correctly predicted Austria to be the location of the first defaults. And now we see it has started. Draghi's QE will buy a few months hiatus only (and line the pockets of the banksters under the ruse of "domestic policy objectives" bullshit).
The entire thing is going to collapse horrifically.
The entire thing is going to collapse horrifically.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/austrian-black-swan-claims-its-first-foreign-casualty-german-duesselhyp-collapses-be
OROBTC, didn't you claim blackswans can't be predicted.
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong lacks understanding of the importance of bottom up, leaderless paradigms
From: iamback
Date: Mon, March 16, 2015 7:49 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes Armstrong's historical knowledge is impressive, but his interpretations are flawed by his top-down organization world view. Armstrong's computer model is (in theory) not subjective nor colored with human emotions and thus giving a purely statistical correlation of historical cycles with present data.
Armstrong is valuable source of information, but one has to understand the subjective bias he brings to the table. Armstrong believes central banking and fractional reserve debt is good for mankind. He doesn't seem to understand that is a scourge of mankind (and it is also synergistic with collectivized corruption, e.g. government).
Armstrong lacks understanding (or appreciation) of the importance of bottom up, leaderless paradigms.
If we only had the top-down paradigms, the human race would have destroyed itself long ago.
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong lacks understanding of the importance of bottom up, leaderless paradigms
From: iamback
Date: Mon, March 16, 2015 7:49 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for the warning. I'm just trying to get a comprehensive understanding of his thought process quickly. I'm already extremely impressed with his historical knowledge. I understand why (in general) gold bugs dislike him so much, it's silly how personally they seem to take it.
Yes Armstrong's historical knowledge is impressive, but his interpretations are flawed by his top-down organization world view. Armstrong's computer model is (in theory) not subjective nor colored with human emotions and thus giving a purely statistical correlation of historical cycles with present data.
Armstrong is valuable source of information, but one has to understand the subjective bias he brings to the table. Armstrong believes central banking and fractional reserve debt is good for mankind. He doesn't seem to understand that is a scourge of mankind (and it is also synergistic with collectivized corruption, e.g. government).
Armstrong lacks understanding (or appreciation) of the importance of bottom up, leaderless paradigms.
If we only had the top-down paradigms, the human race would have destroyed itself long ago.
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong is a central bank apologist & will fail to restructure before we crash & burn
From: iamback
Date: Mon, March 16, 2015 7:37 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
If anyone else is interested a complete (I think) collection of them can be found here.
https://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
Thanks for this CC. Hopefully can start deciphering Armstrong extensive writings. Need to up my speed reading.
Careful with following everything Armstrong says. He is a central bank apologist and he wishes for a restructuring hoping the coming abyss will be avoided. But he will fail.
His computer model timings are correct. His interpretation of his computer model timings is sometimes flawed. For example him advising you that a mortgage will protect you from a housing collapse or egregious taxation. He can't be sure of that! He is hoping for a Solutions Conference, but remember the Petri dish model in my "Understand Everything Fundamentally" in my essay linked from the opening post of this thread.
The cancer doesn't slow down until the host is dead (food supply is exhausted).
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong is a central bank apologist & will fail to restructure before we crash & burn
From: iamback
Date: Mon, March 16, 2015 7:37 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
If anyone else is interested a complete (I think) collection of them can be found here.
https://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
Thanks for this CC. Hopefully can start deciphering Armstrong extensive writings. Need to up my speed reading.
Careful with following everything Armstrong says. He is a central bank apologist and he wishes for a restructuring hoping the coming abyss will be avoided. But he will fail.
His computer model timings are correct. His interpretation of his computer model timings is sometimes flawed. For example him advising you that a mortgage will protect you from a housing collapse or egregious taxation. He can't be sure of that! He is hoping for a Solutions Conference, but remember the Petri dish model in my "Understand Everything Fundamentally" in my essay linked from the opening post of this thread.
The cancer doesn't slow down until the host is dead (food supply is exhausted).
Thanks for the warning. I'm just trying to get a comprehensive understanding of his thought process quickly. I'm already extremely impressed with his historical knowledge. I understand why (in general) gold bugs dislike him so much, it's silly how personally they seem to take it.
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong is a central bank apologist & will fail to restructure before we crash & burn
From: iamback
Date: Mon, March 16, 2015 7:37 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
If anyone else is interested a complete (I think) collection of them can be found here.
https://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
Thanks for this CC. Hopefully can start deciphering Armstrong extensive writings. Need to up my speed reading.
Careful with following everything Armstrong says. He is a central bank apologist and he wishes for a restructuring hoping the coming abyss will be avoided. But he will fail.
His computer model timings are correct. His interpretation of his computer model timings is sometimes flawed. For example him advising you that a mortgage will protect you from a housing collapse or egregious taxation. He can't be sure of that! He is hoping for a Solutions Conference, but remember the Petri dish model in my "Understand Everything Fundamentally" in my essay linked from the opening post of this thread.
The cancer doesn't slow down until the host is dead (food supply is exhausted).
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong is a central bank apologist & will fail to restructure before we crash & burn
From: iamback
Date: Mon, March 16, 2015 7:37 am
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
If anyone else is interested a complete (I think) collection of them can be found here.
https://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
Thanks for this CC. Hopefully can start deciphering Armstrong extensive writings. Need to up my speed reading.
Careful with following everything Armstrong says. He is a central bank apologist and he wishes for a restructuring hoping the coming abyss will be avoided. But he will fail.
His computer model timings are correct. His interpretation of his computer model timings is sometimes flawed. For example him advising you that a mortgage will protect you from a housing collapse or egregious taxation. He can't be sure of that! He is hoping for a Solutions Conference, but remember the Petri dish model in my "Understand Everything Fundamentally" in my essay linked from the opening post of this thread.
The cancer doesn't slow down until the host is dead (food supply is exhausted).
If anyone else is interested a complete (I think) collection of them can be found here.
https://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
Thanks for this CC. Hopefully can start deciphering Armstrong extensive writings. Need to up my speed reading.
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: Untaxable crypto-currency will reform the governments
From: iamback
Date: Sun, March 15, 2015 5:27 pm
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The harder the powers-that-be push to expropriate capital from the
Knowledge Age producers, the more they will drive us into using our coming
anonymous, untrackable crypto-currency and anonymous internet
communication system.
Eventually all the significant production (as we are moving into
technological unemployment on a massive scale as even Oxford U. predicts
47% of all existing jobs to be replaced by automation by 2033) will move
into our untaxable economy because the totalitarianism will not cease
until the cancer has killed the host.
Thus the world will eventually reach the point that they must give up on
income taxes and just print the money they want for taxes. And therein is
how the Knowledge Age will reform government.
The socialism won't go there willingly. It will have to be pummelled into
the abyss before the system will reform.
Subject: Mar 16: Untaxable crypto-currency will reform the governments
From: iamback
Date: Sun, March 15, 2015 5:27 pm
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The harder the powers-that-be push to expropriate capital from the
Knowledge Age producers, the more they will drive us into using our coming
anonymous, untrackable crypto-currency and anonymous internet
communication system.
Eventually all the significant production (as we are moving into
technological unemployment on a massive scale as even Oxford U. predicts
47% of all existing jobs to be replaced by automation by 2033) will move
into our untaxable economy because the totalitarianism will not cease
until the cancer has killed the host.
Thus the world will eventually reach the point that they must give up on
income taxes and just print the money they want for taxes. And therein is
how the Knowledge Age will reform government.
The socialism won't go there willingly. It will have to be pummelled into
the abyss before the system will reform.
Cross-posting from the "One-world reserve currency..." thread. Please direct your comments about this post there.
I post it also here because it explains my model for the Economic Devastation coming.
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong doesn't understand crypto-currency will rise synchronously with the one world reserve currency
From: iamback
Date: Sun, March 15, 2015 4:55 pm
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong replied to my previous email in a series of discombobulated blog posts. I am going to attempt to reveal his errors coherently, but this won't be easy to achieve.
First he seems to think that I was suggesting Bitcoin could become a mainstream currency because its supply is said to be limited to 21 million coins:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/bitcoin-will-be-capped-at-21-million/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/money-electronic-debasement/
I never suggested that the reason a crypto-currency would become widely adopted is due to cap on the money supply. In fact, I have often argued that an improved replacement for Bitcoin must have perpetual debasement. Arguably the cap on the number of Bitcoins can be subverted in the future, because Bitcoin is controlled by about 1 - 4 mining pools, thus in essence Bitcoin is controlled by the governments which can regulate those large mining pools. The advantage of crypto-currency is not a fixed money supply. And Bitcoin is the least likely of the crypto-currencies to become widely adopted because it isn't even decentralized and doesn't even have anonymity. A better crypto-currency than Bitcoin will rise soon.
Note Armstrong's analogy about 21 million coins for 300 million Americans shows that he ignorant about crypto-currency. BTC are divisible down to 1 Satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) thus there is enough fragments of BTC to supply every human on earth. Armstrong is correct that fixed money supply is deflationary and will never be accepted by the public-at-large, but he fails to articulate the reason why. The better explanation of why the public-at-large will not accept a deflationary currency is because it is incompatible with a fractional reserve banking system and thus incompatible with debt. And people love debt. Where there is no usury, there is no economy and nothing moves (as was evident in the Dark Age). The Middle East was similarly stuck going no where (still riding camels and living in tents in the desert) with their anti-usury stance, but the free money from oil and Armstrong teaching them how to hide usury in leasing gold, broke them free from that anti-usury abyss.
Armstrong seems to think that as long as the national government doesn't borrow, then my point about a reserve currency being an enslavement paradigm doesn't apply:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/debt-reserve-currency/
As I said, the public will always demand a fractional reserve banking system. Whether it is sanctioned by a central bank (e.g. the USA after 1913) or ad hoc by private banks (e.g. the USA in the 1800s) doesn't change the fact that the public love debt. Citizenry especially love when the debts are accrued by the collective (e.g. nation, state, province, city, school district, company retirement plan, etc) because they are under the illusion that they get all the benefits without the individual default risk. The citizenry are under the illusion that the default can't be taken directly from the individual. People are too stupid to realize they end up paying it in taxes or economic collapse.
Armstrong is failing to acknowledge the fact that the nations don't get to decide which currency debt will be issued in, rather the investors and public make those decisions in a decentralized manner. The massive loans in Europe denominated in Swiss francs are one example. Now those loans will default because of the abrupt and egregious rise in the value of the Swiss franc when the peg to the Euro failed. Ditto all the dollar loans in the developing world which will default when the dollar rises through the roof after 2015.75.
Even if a country, state, city, or entity issues their debt denominated in a national currency, they pay a premium (a carrying cost) which is approximately the Black-Scholes implied volatility between that unit-of-account and the more stable reserve currency unit-of-account. The deep math point is that whoever controls the reserve currency has their hands on the levers that can cause massive booms and busts in all economies that are not transacted in the reserve currency unit-of-account.
Absolutely false! This proves that I am a much more sophisticated macro-economist than Armstrong.
The reserve currency issue enabled for example China to repress their consumption sector (c.f. China expert Michael Pettis PhD) and radically overinvest in fixed capital investment, which afforded the West another decade of debt expansion on the back of the unsustainably repressed Chinese consumer and empowered Western consumer.
I entirely agree with Armstrong. There is no way the debt market will agree to be denominated in some decentralized crypto-currency with no regulation. Because debt operates by leverage and fractional reserves, and thus the people prefer to be lied to and told that defaults will never happen and so the ultimate default is delayed by grouping everyone together in a collective with a central bank. This is more desirable to the public than individual failures haphazardly and more frequently.
Thus a one world reserve currency is coming, and it will not be a crypto-currency. Rather it will be something controlled politically by the powers that be. Everyone who participates in the mainstream debt and bond markets will be operating in that reserve currency dominated system (even if there is a 2-tier system with some nations retaining their own national currencies that float against the reserve unit-of-account).
But my point is orthogonal to that reality. Debt is basically useless in the coming shift from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age. Most of all the productive value produced in the future will be from knowledge work. This is not labor. It is not fungible like labor is. Thus it can't be financed. If Armstrong would read my essays, he would understand that there is radical paradigm shift underway which will make the debt based economy wither.
Thus those in the debt based economy with their stored money capital will be in the one world currency enslavement system.
The knowledge age workers do not need any monetary capital. We can generate earnings that are 100s or 1000s times our housing and other expenses. We don't get a rats ass about storing money. We want to save up and store more knowledge.
In our economy, we will be using a fully anonymous and decentralized crypto-currency (that is perpetually debased so it forces rapid dissemination into more knowledge production). We won't pay any taxes, except for the portion of our income that we choose to declare to justify our lifestyle to the tax authorities. The vast majority of our economy will go untaxable.
And our economy will be growing very fast while the debt based economy will be shrinking or growing very slowly.
We can peg our currency to the one world reserve currency using an options market, at some carrying cost (determined by relative volatility). We will choose to use our crypto-currency because our freedom and innovation requires we not be dictated to by a central authority, whether it be taxes, the tsuris of kafkaesque KYC and AML which interfere for example with micropayments, FCC regulation of the internet, etc..
Thus in the end, our currency wins and decentralization wins; and central banks and debt die. The one world reserve currency will be an ephemeral failing paradigm. It will be where all the unproductive people hangout and leech off the collective and default on the lenders. It will go into pernicious and terminal decline into an abyss or Dark Age. While our economy will rise up and take over.
Thus Armstrong, you are entirely missing the big picture. You will get your silly one world reserve currency, but it won't last long.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/fiat-and-the-abuse-of-using-this-term/
And that is why the Knowledge Age will destroy the one world reserve currency debt based economy.
There won't be a perfect world. The one world reserve currency will be another collective debt morass over time. While the Knowledge Age will be rising up from very small. Eventually when the Knowledge Age becomes the dominant portion of the global economy, then the public will find some way to tax it and clawback to the collectivized failures that human nature prefers. They will do this by put a chip inside everyone's body that can track thoughts. This is the 666 system written in Revelation. But that is some decade or decades from now. The Achilles heel of the Knowledge Age decentralization ultimately rests on the fact that we can't yet operate our mind without our physical bodies.
Incorrect! Our problem is the human nature that people love debt, because they like to consume before they earn. Wealth is power law distributed. That is a fact. Thus the middle and lower classes envy collective debt as a way to redistribute from the wealthy back to the lazy. They don't understand that this honey is what attracts the flies of government corruption.
Direct democracy will never be a solution, because human nature doesn't change.
The Knowledge Age is a technological paradigm shift which renders the collective powerless to tax (most of the economic activity which won't be tangible thus can't be tracked once we have good anonymity technology implemented).
But even the Knowledge Age will eventually succumb to this pernicious human nature.
Exactly agreed. But realize that the one world reserve currency and reforming governments is not the only solution in play at this juncture. The Knowledge Age is also rising. Armstrong seems to view this as either-or; i.e. mutually exclusive choices. Rather both of these "solutions" will be ongoing simultaneously.
This is precisely why the Knowledge Age will move to our coming anonymous crypto-currency. The governments will not be able to track it, nor can they shut it down, even if they shut down the internet. Sorry we hackers are smarter than them. We win. They lose.
Armstrong doesn't understand crypto-currency. Thus he doesn't understand what is possible. I am an expert programmer in crypto-currency. I know. Armstrong doesn't. Period.
I post it also here because it explains my model for the Economic Devastation coming.
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: Armstrong doesn't understand crypto-currency will rise synchronously with the one world reserve currency
From: iamback
Date: Sun, March 15, 2015 4:55 pm
To: "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Armstrong replied to my previous email in a series of discombobulated blog posts. I am going to attempt to reveal his errors coherently, but this won't be easy to achieve.
First he seems to think that I was suggesting Bitcoin could become a mainstream currency because its supply is said to be limited to 21 million coins:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/bitcoin-will-be-capped-at-21-million/
Quote from: Armstrong
I am told that I will be wrong because Bitcoin has an arbitrary cap at 21 million so it cannot end up as the dollar. Sorry, if you cap it at 21 million and there are over 300 million Americans alone, just how is Bitcoin going to ever replace anything? That is the attempt of austerity and that cap would prevent it from ever being really accepted among any reasonable portion of society.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/money-electronic-debasement/
Quote from: Armstrong
Unfortunately, way too many people think that money should not be debased. The first coinage in gold was debased pictured above. Some try to argue that somehow bitcoin prevents debasement.
I never suggested that the reason a crypto-currency would become widely adopted is due to cap on the money supply. In fact, I have often argued that an improved replacement for Bitcoin must have perpetual debasement. Arguably the cap on the number of Bitcoins can be subverted in the future, because Bitcoin is controlled by about 1 - 4 mining pools, thus in essence Bitcoin is controlled by the governments which can regulate those large mining pools. The advantage of crypto-currency is not a fixed money supply. And Bitcoin is the least likely of the crypto-currencies to become widely adopted because it isn't even decentralized and doesn't even have anonymity. A better crypto-currency than Bitcoin will rise soon.
Note Armstrong's analogy about 21 million coins for 300 million Americans shows that he ignorant about crypto-currency. BTC are divisible down to 1 Satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) thus there is enough fragments of BTC to supply every human on earth. Armstrong is correct that fixed money supply is deflationary and will never be accepted by the public-at-large, but he fails to articulate the reason why. The better explanation of why the public-at-large will not accept a deflationary currency is because it is incompatible with a fractional reserve banking system and thus incompatible with debt. And people love debt. Where there is no usury, there is no economy and nothing moves (as was evident in the Dark Age). The Middle East was similarly stuck going no where (still riding camels and living in tents in the desert) with their anti-usury stance, but the free money from oil and Armstrong teaching them how to hide usury in leasing gold, broke them free from that anti-usury abyss.
Armstrong seems to think that as long as the national government doesn't borrow, then my point about a reserve currency being an enslavement paradigm doesn't apply:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/debt-reserve-currency/
Quote
QUESTION: Marty, Would nations still issue debt in the reserve currency or their local currency? If countries issued debt in the reserve currency, wouldn’t that be the same problem you have pointed out with the euro?
You have made it clear that debt is the great destroyer of civilization. It seems that this is the one factor that wipes out the monetary system every time. Do you think it is possible to eliminate government debt?
iamback
ANSWER: ... Only a fool assumes that debt is some how a natural part of the system. They clearly do not know their history. The US debt was entirely paid off before the Civil War. Such people never heard of the sin of usury or the Arab culture of prohibiting interest. Is it possible to eliminate government debt? Of course it is. Government debt has not always existed.
In fact, not only was there no national debt, the US government did not issue paper money after the Revolution until the Civil War. So there is plenty of precedent to demonstrate that government can function without debt at the federal level. Keep in mind, that states still borrowed. There was a massive sovereign state default in the 1840s.
You have made it clear that debt is the great destroyer of civilization. It seems that this is the one factor that wipes out the monetary system every time. Do you think it is possible to eliminate government debt?
iamback
ANSWER: ... Only a fool assumes that debt is some how a natural part of the system. They clearly do not know their history. The US debt was entirely paid off before the Civil War. Such people never heard of the sin of usury or the Arab culture of prohibiting interest. Is it possible to eliminate government debt? Of course it is. Government debt has not always existed.
In fact, not only was there no national debt, the US government did not issue paper money after the Revolution until the Civil War. So there is plenty of precedent to demonstrate that government can function without debt at the federal level. Keep in mind, that states still borrowed. There was a massive sovereign state default in the 1840s.
As I said, the public will always demand a fractional reserve banking system. Whether it is sanctioned by a central bank (e.g. the USA after 1913) or ad hoc by private banks (e.g. the USA in the 1800s) doesn't change the fact that the public love debt. Citizenry especially love when the debts are accrued by the collective (e.g. nation, state, province, city, school district, company retirement plan, etc) because they are under the illusion that they get all the benefits without the individual default risk. The citizenry are under the illusion that the default can't be taken directly from the individual. People are too stupid to realize they end up paying it in taxes or economic collapse.
Quote from: Armstrong
There is a tremendous difference between issuing debt in a reserve currency and a domestic issue. You are correct. If there is a reserve currency and governments issued their debt in the reserve, you would end up with total chaos just as you have in the Euro. That would also tend to suggest the requirement of a central control, and that is not likely for nations will not surrender their sovereignty in such a manner.
A reserve currency simply replaces the dollar. That is the political goal of China and Russia. It also makes sense for it separates the problem of the reserve currency being impacted by domestic policy objectives which become exported. The Fed lowered rates sharply to bail out US banks and other nations issue dollar debt because of the low interest rates.
A reserve currency simply replaces the dollar. That is the political goal of China and Russia. It also makes sense for it separates the problem of the reserve currency being impacted by domestic policy objectives which become exported. The Fed lowered rates sharply to bail out US banks and other nations issue dollar debt because of the low interest rates.
Armstrong is failing to acknowledge the fact that the nations don't get to decide which currency debt will be issued in, rather the investors and public make those decisions in a decentralized manner. The massive loans in Europe denominated in Swiss francs are one example. Now those loans will default because of the abrupt and egregious rise in the value of the Swiss franc when the peg to the Euro failed. Ditto all the dollar loans in the developing world which will default when the dollar rises through the roof after 2015.75.
Even if a country, state, city, or entity issues their debt denominated in a national currency, they pay a premium (a carrying cost) which is approximately the Black-Scholes implied volatility between that unit-of-account and the more stable reserve currency unit-of-account. The deep math point is that whoever controls the reserve currency has their hands on the levers that can cause massive booms and busts in all economies that are not transacted in the reserve currency unit-of-account.
Quote from: Armstrong
The debt crisis is separate and distinct from the reserve problem.
Absolutely false! This proves that I am a much more sophisticated macro-economist than Armstrong.
The reserve currency issue enabled for example China to repress their consumption sector (c.f. China expert Michael Pettis PhD) and radically overinvest in fixed capital investment, which afforded the West another decade of debt expansion on the back of the unsustainably repressed Chinese consumer and empowered Western consumer.
Quote from: Armstrong
Andrew Jackson’s war against the Bank of the United States eliminated a central bank and set in motion total chaos. Jackson unleashed the age of Wildcat Banking where private banks issued their own paper money that nobody knew even where these banks were located.. The currency issued by Oxford County Bank of Fryeburg, Maine, was actually issued by speculators who then sold their currency wholesale at deep discounts in New York City. A fraud market emerged because there were countless banks all issuing money (receipts) based upon pretend deposits without a central bank regulating anything.
...
The US debt is linked to the reserve currency insofar as there is a deep dollar bond market unlike other currencies. The US debt can be used as reserves and is to the extent of about 40%. This is what will eventually force the evolution to a reserve currency replacement. When I am in meetings around the world, this much seems to be understood as inevitable. So the nut-jobs can tout some impractical new currency to strip government of power as if that will ever get a vote and the bankers will fight hard to keep the government borrowing so they can make a commission. Between these two extremes lies reality.
...
The US debt is linked to the reserve currency insofar as there is a deep dollar bond market unlike other currencies. The US debt can be used as reserves and is to the extent of about 40%. This is what will eventually force the evolution to a reserve currency replacement. When I am in meetings around the world, this much seems to be understood as inevitable. So the nut-jobs can tout some impractical new currency to strip government of power as if that will ever get a vote and the bankers will fight hard to keep the government borrowing so they can make a commission. Between these two extremes lies reality.
I entirely agree with Armstrong. There is no way the debt market will agree to be denominated in some decentralized crypto-currency with no regulation. Because debt operates by leverage and fractional reserves, and thus the people prefer to be lied to and told that defaults will never happen and so the ultimate default is delayed by grouping everyone together in a collective with a central bank. This is more desirable to the public than individual failures haphazardly and more frequently.
Thus a one world reserve currency is coming, and it will not be a crypto-currency. Rather it will be something controlled politically by the powers that be. Everyone who participates in the mainstream debt and bond markets will be operating in that reserve currency dominated system (even if there is a 2-tier system with some nations retaining their own national currencies that float against the reserve unit-of-account).
But my point is orthogonal to that reality. Debt is basically useless in the coming shift from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age. Most of all the productive value produced in the future will be from knowledge work. This is not labor. It is not fungible like labor is. Thus it can't be financed. If Armstrong would read my essays, he would understand that there is radical paradigm shift underway which will make the debt based economy wither.
Thus those in the debt based economy with their stored money capital will be in the one world currency enslavement system.
The knowledge age workers do not need any monetary capital. We can generate earnings that are 100s or 1000s times our housing and other expenses. We don't get a rats ass about storing money. We want to save up and store more knowledge.
In our economy, we will be using a fully anonymous and decentralized crypto-currency (that is perpetually debased so it forces rapid dissemination into more knowledge production). We won't pay any taxes, except for the portion of our income that we choose to declare to justify our lifestyle to the tax authorities. The vast majority of our economy will go untaxable.
And our economy will be growing very fast while the debt based economy will be shrinking or growing very slowly.
We can peg our currency to the one world reserve currency using an options market, at some carrying cost (determined by relative volatility). We will choose to use our crypto-currency because our freedom and innovation requires we not be dictated to by a central authority, whether it be taxes, the tsuris of kafkaesque KYC and AML which interfere for example with micropayments, FCC regulation of the internet, etc..
Thus in the end, our currency wins and decentralization wins; and central banks and debt die. The one world reserve currency will be an ephemeral failing paradigm. It will be where all the unproductive people hangout and leech off the collective and default on the lenders. It will go into pernicious and terminal decline into an abyss or Dark Age. While our economy will rise up and take over.
Thus Armstrong, you are entirely missing the big picture. You will get your silly one world reserve currency, but it won't last long.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/15/fiat-and-the-abuse-of-using-this-term/
Quote from: Armstrong
The wealth of a nation is not its tangible objects, but its people’s productive capacity.
And that is why the Knowledge Age will destroy the one world reserve currency debt based economy.
Quote from: Armstrong
This is why we will eventually be driven into a representative form of an electronic reserve currency as a political compromise, not that this would be the ultimate solution. There is a difference between PRACTICAL ideas and LOFTY THEORIES of a perfect world to which you can never reach.
There won't be a perfect world. The one world reserve currency will be another collective debt morass over time. While the Knowledge Age will be rising up from very small. Eventually when the Knowledge Age becomes the dominant portion of the global economy, then the public will find some way to tax it and clawback to the collectivized failures that human nature prefers. They will do this by put a chip inside everyone's body that can track thoughts. This is the 666 system written in Revelation. But that is some decade or decades from now. The Achilles heel of the Knowledge Age decentralization ultimately rests on the fact that we can't yet operate our mind without our physical bodies.
Quote from: Armstrong
Our problem is not what is money, it is government and its endless historical evolution toward corruption.
Incorrect! Our problem is the human nature that people love debt, because they like to consume before they earn. Wealth is power law distributed. That is a fact. Thus the middle and lower classes envy collective debt as a way to redistribute from the wealthy back to the lazy. They don't understand that this honey is what attracts the flies of government corruption.
Direct democracy will never be a solution, because human nature doesn't change.
The Knowledge Age is a technological paradigm shift which renders the collective powerless to tax (most of the economic activity which won't be tangible thus can't be tracked once we have good anonymity technology implemented).
But even the Knowledge Age will eventually succumb to this pernicious human nature.
Quote from: Armstrong
We can come up with a solution for now, but eventually the cycle will kick in and we will return to where we are once again. The wheel of fortune always returns to where it began. Because of cycles, there will never be a permanent solution and only a fool would think so like Karl Marx.
Exactly agreed. But realize that the one world reserve currency and reforming governments is not the only solution in play at this juncture. The Knowledge Age is also rising. Armstrong seems to view this as either-or; i.e. mutually exclusive choices. Rather both of these "solutions" will be ongoing simultaneously.
Quote from: Armstrong
They have cameras tracking where you drive by license plates. Face recognition just entering a post office. Come on. And you think they will not close down absolutely every avenue? There will most likely be an underground economy, but that will probably be limited.
This is why I have suggested ... silver coins ... That might be a hard sell to someone younger who pays with their cell phone.
...
The downside of the precious metals, which is a concern, is that you cannot hop on a plane with them anymore. It is considered money laundering to store them in most safe deposit boxes. The governments require refiners to report every ounce in and out and where it went. It is illegal to mail money today. Read between the lines here. Government is trying to shut down even the precious metals as an alternative. They are gradually forcing everyone into electronic money.
This is why I have suggested ... silver coins ... That might be a hard sell to someone younger who pays with their cell phone.
...
The downside of the precious metals, which is a concern, is that you cannot hop on a plane with them anymore. It is considered money laundering to store them in most safe deposit boxes. The governments require refiners to report every ounce in and out and where it went. It is illegal to mail money today. Read between the lines here. Government is trying to shut down even the precious metals as an alternative. They are gradually forcing everyone into electronic money.
This is precisely why the Knowledge Age will move to our coming anonymous crypto-currency. The governments will not be able to track it, nor can they shut it down, even if they shut down the internet. Sorry we hackers are smarter than them. We win. They lose.
Armstrong doesn't understand crypto-currency. Thus he doesn't understand what is possible. I am an expert programmer in crypto-currency. I know. Armstrong doesn't. Period.
The post is clearly a question and not a claim of any kind or hidden meaning involved.
As phrased it was not clearly not an erroneous insinuation in attempt to paint your false assumption on the meaning of this thread, because you were too lazy to read the thread first.
(hope you are good with logic, so you can comprehend that sentence)
And again in the subsequent post, you displayed again that you failed to read the link I had provided when I corrected you. So there is a pattern of your behaviour (i.e. failure to read), which supports my angst towards you.
PLEASE STOP WASTING MY TIME.
He even failed to read the thread, because his first post was accusing me of being in support of Kurzweil's Singularity nonsense.
Are you going for a world record example of being a hypocrite? It says right in my post:
"Can't believe this post is still going. I can't remember, was the Anonymint age of knowledge thing supposed to inevitably lead to the creation of AI or not?"
Hey idiot, you just quoted yourself accusing me of being in support of Kurzweil's Singularity nonsense.
The accusation was contained in an intentionally rhetorical question. It was effectively saying, my recollection is that iamback (aka AnonyMint) was supporting Kurzweil's Singularity (AI taking over humans).
The post is clearly a question and not a claim of any kind or hidden meaning involved. You're intentionally making things up. It's not a "how often do you beat your wife" question. It's a question where parties typically fall on one side or the other of a theory.
...
coinits
Yes, I know he did and does, I bought and read his recent book where he makes that clear. So what? The Three Letters has an agenda, but it is not (likely) what you seem to think it is... Know anyone there?
iamback
Those of us who are "physical gold advocates" do not worry too much about the price of gold on any given day. For example, in my case, when I come into some dough, I will devote some of it to buying gold on a regular basis.
Ounces, not dollars. Kind of dollar cost averaging.
If Armstrong is proven right (or pretty close), then he will get a LOT of attention from Zero Hedge and the other "Alt-Finance" websites. I look forward to that.
coinits
Yes, I know he did and does, I bought and read his recent book where he makes that clear. So what? The Three Letters has an agenda, but it is not (likely) what you seem to think it is... Know anyone there?
iamback
Those of us who are "physical gold advocates" do not worry too much about the price of gold on any given day. For example, in my case, when I come into some dough, I will devote some of it to buying gold on a regular basis.
Ounces, not dollars. Kind of dollar cost averaging.
If Armstrong is proven right (or pretty close), then he will get a LOT of attention from Zero Hedge and the other "Alt-Finance" websites. I look forward to that.
Jim Rickards? Please. He works for the CIA. Research it.
Indeed he contracted for the CIA and openly admits it.
You need to take off your tin foil hat and understand the world is not black and white. There are many shades of grey and other colors too. He can contract for the CIA without making him David Rockefeller.
Even the elite have to be careful because the underlings can't be kept as perfect robots by top-down edict.
The way the elite rule is by compartmentalization. By definition this means the underlings don't know everything and they also don't know they are working for some master plan.
Rickards is even deluded on some aspects.
tabnloz, very good. You've almost got it entirely.
Cash is going away. They are phasing it out such as by lowering the ATM withdrawal amounts, confiscating cash at borders, and civil forfeiture laws in the USA where they take your cash for any suspicion of illegal activity and they don't need to prove it (your cash is guilty until proven innocent, because it doesn't have human rights!).
The elite appear to be using Bitcoin to force the banking systems to go electronic in order to compete. Realize the elite can't rule by top-down edicts, because they would become the target of organized resistance. The elite rule by clever deceptions. I believe Bitcoin was created with an elite team of cryptographers from the NSA with funding from the DEEP STATE, i.e. the $2.3 trillion that Donald Rumsfeld admitted on the eve of 9/11 was missing from the Pentagon budget (cumulatively over the decades).
I believe that elite team intentionally (secretly subverting the DEEP STATE that contracted them) or inadvertently launched a market for a real anonymous currency and internet. I believe we can invent crypto-currency that can protect us and work as cash did and with extra beneficial features. Thus I believe Bitcoin will not be the only popular altcoin. But the proof of this will be in the pudding so to speak. Someone has to actually invent something worthwhile.
Cash is going away. They are phasing it out such as by lowering the ATM withdrawal amounts, confiscating cash at borders, and civil forfeiture laws in the USA where they take your cash for any suspicion of illegal activity and they don't need to prove it (your cash is guilty until proven innocent, because it doesn't have human rights!).
The elite appear to be using Bitcoin to force the banking systems to go electronic in order to compete. Realize the elite can't rule by top-down edicts, because they would become the target of organized resistance. The elite rule by clever deceptions. I believe Bitcoin was created with an elite team of cryptographers from the NSA with funding from the DEEP STATE, i.e. the $2.3 trillion that Donald Rumsfeld admitted on the eve of 9/11 was missing from the Pentagon budget (cumulatively over the decades).
I believe that elite team intentionally (secretly subverting the DEEP STATE that contracted them) or inadvertently launched a market for a real anonymous currency and internet. I believe we can invent crypto-currency that can protect us and work as cash did and with extra beneficial features. Thus I believe Bitcoin will not be the only popular altcoin. But the proof of this will be in the pudding so to speak. Someone has to actually invent something worthwhile.
Jim Rickards? Please. He works for the CIA. Research it.
Jim Rickards has suggested that the Central Banks are allowing China to get more physical gold with the idea that a currency reset needs consensus among the players. Rickards suggests that the metric that will be used will be based on gold reserves (that are aligned pretty close to each major player's GDP). So, if China were to have about the same gold reserves as the USA, a reset could be worked out balancing each country's interests and clout.
+ 1 for mentioning that Armstrong would reveal his best predictions for subscribers. That would only make sense. Predicting exact times is very difficult and a fool's game for us "99%-ers" (referring to Knowledge Age, not wealth).
+ 1 for mentioning that Armstrong would reveal his best predictions for subscribers. That would only make sense. Predicting exact times is very difficult and a fool's game for us "99%-ers" (referring to Knowledge Age, not wealth).
I had also thought of the same thing that Rickards is saying.
Armstrong has a more precise day for the gold bottom that paid subscribers know, and he has alluded to it in his public blog as "the benchmarks".
...
CoinCube
Thank you for your insightful comments on the ZH article. Rage is indeed easily manipulated, and the obvious targets of rage in America would be the small businesses and the 1% who are not high enough up on the foodchain to evade the rage... Small business is particularly at risk (ah, Ferguson).
One thing I am learning as I get older. Perhaps the CORE destructive emotion is resentment. Resentment is a killer, it harms both the resent-er and the resent-ee. Being able to move on from resentment is a great step to growth for any of us.
"Don't hurry.
Don't worry.
Don't resent.
Don't condemn."
Zero Hedge also had an interesting article earlier today (13 March) about government debts among the USA, China, Europe and Japan. The author concludes that the USA (! for ZH) is "the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet". China, Europe and Japan stink more...
Re Zero Hedge, I was an active member there for about five years. I dropped out a few months ago because of high number illogical and troll-like comments (especially from Putin bootlickers and the anti-Semites).
iamback
Jim Rickards has suggested that the Central Banks are allowing China to get more physical gold with the idea that a currency reset needs consensus among the players. Rickards suggests that the metric that will be used will be based on gold reserves (that are aligned pretty close to each major player's GDP). So, if China were to have about the same gold reserves as the USA, a reset could be worked out balancing each country's interests and clout.
+ 1 for mentioning that Armstrong would reveal his best predictions for subscribers. That would only make sense. Predicting exact times is very difficult and a fool's game for us "99%-ers" (referring to Knowledge Age, not wealth).
CoinCube
Thank you for your insightful comments on the ZH article. Rage is indeed easily manipulated, and the obvious targets of rage in America would be the small businesses and the 1% who are not high enough up on the foodchain to evade the rage... Small business is particularly at risk (ah, Ferguson).
One thing I am learning as I get older. Perhaps the CORE destructive emotion is resentment. Resentment is a killer, it harms both the resent-er and the resent-ee. Being able to move on from resentment is a great step to growth for any of us.
"Don't hurry.
Don't worry.
Don't resent.
Don't condemn."
Zero Hedge also had an interesting article earlier today (13 March) about government debts among the USA, China, Europe and Japan. The author concludes that the USA (! for ZH) is "the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet". China, Europe and Japan stink more...
Re Zero Hedge, I was an active member there for about five years. I dropped out a few months ago because of high number illogical and troll-like comments (especially from Putin bootlickers and the anti-Semites).
iamback
Jim Rickards has suggested that the Central Banks are allowing China to get more physical gold with the idea that a currency reset needs consensus among the players. Rickards suggests that the metric that will be used will be based on gold reserves (that are aligned pretty close to each major player's GDP). So, if China were to have about the same gold reserves as the USA, a reset could be worked out balancing each country's interests and clout.
+ 1 for mentioning that Armstrong would reveal his best predictions for subscribers. That would only make sense. Predicting exact times is very difficult and a fool's game for us "99%-ers" (referring to Knowledge Age, not wealth).
I wanted to share the leading article on zerohedge. It is a piece of pure unfocused rage.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-13/one-americans-rage-spills-over-shut-your-mouth-start-fighting-these-political-parasi
One American's Rage Spills Over: Shut Your Mouth & Start Fighting These Political Parasites
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via First Rebuttal blog,
Normally the comments on ZeroHedge are pretty good. However, the posters there seem to blindly support rage pieces like this one without understanding that the rage will only make things worse.
Rage without insight is more then useless. Such anger is easily manipulated and will be directed into an attack on the productive elite and small businesses.
With each raging assault on the hatedrich 1% red cape the bull is confused to find that its wounds have deepened. It responds by attacking the cape with more vigor.
The proper response to this spectacle is not rage but pity. The bull has been brought up and trained its entire life to ignore the torero and has no chance. The only logical choice is to opt out. Don't be the bull and make sure you are not the easily targeted red cape.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-13/one-americans-rage-spills-over-shut-your-mouth-start-fighting-these-political-parasi
One American's Rage Spills Over: Shut Your Mouth & Start Fighting These Political Parasites
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via First Rebuttal blog,
Quote
I was shocked today by the absolute gaul of the Fed releasing a statement about Net Worth in America reaching record levels
...
The ugly reality is that the bottom 80% of Americans experienced none of that gain. That’s right a big ole goose egg. And so when the Fed via its ass pamper boy, Steve Liesman, start banging on about the fact that some sliver of society is being handed extraordinary wealth while the working class has lost 40% of their net worth since 2007
...
It is embarrassing that our policymakers are either that inconsiderate or that stupid to celebrate such a brutal dislocation between the haves and have nots.
...
And for Americans, why, please god tell me why is it that Americans are so willing to be shit on for so long without so much as a hint of standing up to these monsters that steal our wealth and pass it around their political class.
...
I used to think of Americans as an incredibly admirable people. The type of people that are confident, strong, intelligent and command respect. I really truly did. But having lived here now since 2001, what I see is a people that have rolled over on our backs.
...
And for those of you that think I’m an ass for being so harsh on us, well stuff it. Get up off your stool you lazy drunk, shut your damn mouth and start fighting these political parasites like a damn man, like a damn American. I’m not the one stealing your retirement, stealing your income, stealing your wealth and stealing your freedom all while making myself wealthy and exonerated from all the laws that would put your ass in prison.]
...
The ugly reality is that the bottom 80% of Americans experienced none of that gain. That’s right a big ole goose egg. And so when the Fed via its ass pamper boy, Steve Liesman, start banging on about the fact that some sliver of society is being handed extraordinary wealth while the working class has lost 40% of their net worth since 2007
...
It is embarrassing that our policymakers are either that inconsiderate or that stupid to celebrate such a brutal dislocation between the haves and have nots.
...
And for Americans, why, please god tell me why is it that Americans are so willing to be shit on for so long without so much as a hint of standing up to these monsters that steal our wealth and pass it around their political class.
...
I used to think of Americans as an incredibly admirable people. The type of people that are confident, strong, intelligent and command respect. I really truly did. But having lived here now since 2001, what I see is a people that have rolled over on our backs.
...
And for those of you that think I’m an ass for being so harsh on us, well stuff it. Get up off your stool you lazy drunk, shut your damn mouth and start fighting these political parasites like a damn man, like a damn American. I’m not the one stealing your retirement, stealing your income, stealing your wealth and stealing your freedom all while making myself wealthy and exonerated from all the laws that would put your ass in prison.]
Normally the comments on ZeroHedge are pretty good. However, the posters there seem to blindly support rage pieces like this one without understanding that the rage will only make things worse.
Rage without insight is more then useless. Such anger is easily manipulated and will be directed into an attack on the productive elite and small businesses.
With each raging assault on the hated
The proper response to this spectacle is not rage but pity. The bull has been brought up and trained its entire life to ignore the torero and has no chance. The only logical choice is to opt out. Don't be the bull and make sure you are not the easily targeted red cape.
An interesting back and forth thanks for sharing.
No it is not interesting. It is uninformed idiots making erroneous noise akin to listening to a child bang pots and pans to together.
Anti Armstrong
Quote
If you read his blog, Martin Armstrong keeps pushing stuff back. Now a lot of his posts are talking about 2017 when SHTF. Keep pushing dates back and you will eventually get it correct. But in terms of overall big trades, I haven't been impressed with any of his forecasts recently. For example, he didn't call the huge decline in energy markets over the past 6 months. In fact, back in December once prices had been routed, he was posting they would go much lower. So obviously he missed the recent rebound in energy prices completely.
Gold was supposed to drop below 1K in 2014 according to him. Big miss. DOW was supposed to trade between 23K-40K according to him. Big miss. Then recently he claimed the DOW was supposed to trend down into May, and seems to have already changed that call. Lots of changes and misses for someone who always claims to be correct. He is painted into a corner with his 2015.75 prediction. Will be interested to see if he pushes that back too. ...
Gold was supposed to drop below 1K in 2014 according to him. Big miss. DOW was supposed to trade between 23K-40K according to him. Big miss. Then recently he claimed the DOW was supposed to trend down into May, and seems to have already changed that call. Lots of changes and misses for someone who always claims to be correct. He is painted into a corner with his 2015.75 prediction. Will be interested to see if he pushes that back too. ...
All lies.
I can see where someone who reads a few of Armstrong's blog posts out-of-context would have made the assumptions he is making. I too early on thought Armstrong was saying certain predictions. I learned later that I had to have a holistic view of all his blog posts in order to understand the complex nature of his predictions.
Armstrong's position all along (since before 2011!) was that gold will decline to $1000 or below ($680 is the lowest) and the earliest possible target was Q1 2014, but he had made it clear in other blog posts (well before that time frame) that the low was not due before 2015.75 at the latest.
Armstrong did in fact call the huge decline in the energy markets. In fact he even called months before (in public blog post) for the closing price on Dec. 31, 2014 to be below $57 (which was the exact closin price for the year! Fucking amazing!). That idiot did not buy his paid report on that. He also didn't buy his paid report on gold. Armstrong reserves the details on his predictions for paid subscribers. If you are not paying, then just shut the fuck up, because you don't have access to the specificity. I can actually figure out the specificity without paying, because I have read everything and so now I am inside of Armstrong's mind (and thus inside his computer). Remember I am a programmer. I can hold a 100 variable state machine in my head. I can deduce things from a correlation. Mere mortals will need to pay, to have it explicitly spelled out for them.
His DJIA prediction was always predicated on whether the DJIA would invert and align with private assets. If yes, then the high would come in 2017 than by 2015.75. Armstrong had always said that 2017 was more likely.
He didn't push any thing back. The idiot readers are pulling information out-of-context.
He even failed to read the thread, because his first post was accusing me of being in support of Kurzweil's Singularity nonsense.
Are you going for a world record example of being a hypocrite? It says right in my post:
"Can't believe this post is still going. I can't remember, was the Anonymint age of knowledge thing supposed to inevitably lead to the creation of AI or not?"
Hey idiot, you just quoted yourself accusing me of being in support of Kurzweil's Singularity nonsense.
The accusation was contained in an intentionally rhetorical question. It was effectively saying, my recollection is that iamback (aka AnonyMint) was supporting Kurzweil's Singularity (AI taking over humans).
P.S. if he had read the thread, then just a few weeks ago upthread I was reiterating[1] my position that Kurzweil is nonsense.
| [1] | https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10417945 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10423679 |
An interesting back and forth thanks for sharing.
Below are two posts that highlight the debate on that thread.
Anti Armstrong
Quote
If you read his blog, Martin Armstrong keeps pushing stuff back. Now a lot of his posts are talking about 2017 when SHTF. Keep pushing dates back and you will eventually get it correct. But in terms of overall big trades, I haven't been impressed with any of his forecasts recently. For example, he didn't call the huge decline in energy markets over the past 6 months. In fact, back in December once prices had been routed, he was posting they would go much lower. So obviously he missed the recent rebound in energy prices completely.
Gold was supposed to drop below 1K in 2014 according to him. Big miss. DOW was supposed to trade between 23K-40K according to him. Big miss. Then recently he claimed the DOW was supposed to trend down into May, and seems to have already changed that call. Lots of changes and misses for someone who always claims to be correct. He is painted into a corner with his 2015.75 prediction. Will be interested to see if he pushes that back too.
Things will implode given the circumstances in the world. But the question is when. You will go broke being on the wrong side of a long-term correct trade for too long. Haven't seen many forecasts by Armstrong that will make you a lot of money. Lots of misses and a few hits here and there. Not trying to bash, but just trying to be realistic.
Gold was supposed to drop below 1K in 2014 according to him. Big miss. DOW was supposed to trade between 23K-40K according to him. Big miss. Then recently he claimed the DOW was supposed to trend down into May, and seems to have already changed that call. Lots of changes and misses for someone who always claims to be correct. He is painted into a corner with his 2015.75 prediction. Will be interested to see if he pushes that back too.
Things will implode given the circumstances in the world. But the question is when. You will go broke being on the wrong side of a long-term correct trade for too long. Haven't seen many forecasts by Armstrong that will make you a lot of money. Lots of misses and a few hits here and there. Not trying to bash, but just trying to be realistic.
Pro Armstrong
Quote
I've been following Armstrong for a short while and I'm very impressed with his theories and systems. First he is into neo-classical economics and he's a monetarist, that's great to start. More Friedman and less Keynes is what the world needs today. Then he bases his ideas in a lot of math and history.
As things develop signals change and that's why sometimes he changes his forecasts on what might happen. Like weather, society can only be forecasted not exactly predicted, especially in short terms views. That's the main confusion, people think he predicts stuff and he doesn't. He forecasts.
Also with all due respect Tekmnd I think you are missing the time frames completely when you attempt to decode Martin's system signals. And one more thing, he says the Dow can rally over 24000 AFTER 2015.75, not by that date but after. I saw his conference about the euro from 1999 just a month ago and I was speechless at how right he was back then about the whole thing. The guy does have a unique understanding of capital flows, money and the markets and I really think the world would benefit big time from just listening to him.
As things develop signals change and that's why sometimes he changes his forecasts on what might happen. Like weather, society can only be forecasted not exactly predicted, especially in short terms views. That's the main confusion, people think he predicts stuff and he doesn't. He forecasts.
Also with all due respect Tekmnd I think you are missing the time frames completely when you attempt to decode Martin's system signals. And one more thing, he says the Dow can rally over 24000 AFTER 2015.75, not by that date but after. I saw his conference about the euro from 1999 just a month ago and I was speechless at how right he was back then about the whole thing. The guy does have a unique understanding of capital flows, money and the markets and I really think the world would benefit big time from just listening to him.
Armstrong has certainly caught my interest enough that I am going to go directly to the source material and form my own opinion. It actually took me a while to find all his prison writings. The older ones do not appear to be available on his website.
If anyone else is interested a complete (I think) collection of them can be found here.
https://www.scribd.com/kzuur58
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