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Topic: Economic Devastation - page 108. (Read 504776 times)

legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 12, 2015, 12:10:36 AM
I also commend people who write astute and smart posts. You can find many, many, many examples of that.
...
Armstrong has correctly stated that the experts learned by doing, not from theory and academic cathedrals.

Thus there are very few experts (at least amongst those who speak out in public or publish). Most of the talking heads or those who publish research are just spouting delusion.

I agree on all counts

I have praised the genius of proof-of-work.
your recent posts have been very impressive
That is an excellent (astute, perceptive, efficiently summarized) high-level perspective

I wonder how much freedom those in academics truly have to explore nontraditional non approved economic models. Academics is a publish or perish profession. If you cannot get your research published in good journals (which requires the approval of today's leading economists) your career stagnates. Unorthodox ideas that reject the modern economic thought are probably much more difficult to publish.

Just look at the case of Ludwig-Von-Mises essentially the founder of the Austrian school of economics. However, he was arguing against the status quo.

http://mises.org/library/ludwig-von-mises-scholar-who-would-not-compromise

Mises never obtained a full professorship in Vienna or in any German university; nor later did he obtain one
at any of the prestigious American universities when he moved to the US. The best he achieved during his long career in which he published 47 books was the rank of a poorly paid visiting professor.

Perhaps it is a very good thing that I abandoned the field of economics. I do not think I would have been a big status quo supporter.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 11:39:54 PM
More correct Armstrong predictions.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/11/gold-the-downside/

Quote
The Gold “POP” our computer pinpointed was right on schedule. We even managed to get the day of the high. Now gold has fallen to 1146 intraday and this is interesting. Our Daily Bearish Reversals are at 1146 and 1141 followed by 1130. Resistance now stands at the 1208-1215 level.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 11:24:56 PM
The money banks create goes by default into other banks. Thus even if the bank does not attract deposits they can borrow money from their neighbor banks. This is not free and the cost to do this is artificially set (in the US) by the FED. It is this cost that is the true limiting factor on how much money a bank can create.
This interbank lending rate is called the Federal Funds Rate.

Nothing prevents Coinbase from doing fractional reserve off chain lending. The underlying asset cryptocurrency, however, is fixed and limited in supply. Thus if when Coinbase starts doing this it will be operating much like the fractional reserve banking system did when we were on a gold standard.

The key to understanding the scam is the realization that bank lending is not limited by their deposits. Rather they create they money and in the process debase/devalue the currency of everyone else.

Correct if there is no Central Bank to print more fractional reserve receipts to bailout bank runs, then the banks fail from fractional reserve lending (which creates money out of thin air). The scam of Central Banking is the people agree to collectivize the debasement over the entire banking and financial system. This delays the defaults (in our case for the past 80+ years), which ends up making the default a global abyss of epic proportions as what we will see over the next 7 years starting 2015.75.

The reason we ended up with a Central Bank in the USA in 1913, was because the monetary system was so dysfunctional towards the end of the 19th century, we were having bank runs and depressions often.

Fractional reserve banking is a natural free market result. It can't be stopped with regulation (because the political system will always be captured by the banksters).

The only solution is the one I am writing about in my new thread:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/one-world-reserve-currency-inevitable-and-will-enslave-all-nations-985481

As usual, I don't expect most readers to understand my point.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 11:14:04 PM
I would not take insults from AnonyMint iamback too seriously. He tends to throw them around liberally at pretty much everyone.

I also commend people who write astute and smart posts. You can find many, many, many examples of that.

an expert in the field.

Armstrong has correctly stated that the experts learned by doing, not from theory and academic cathedrals.

Thus there are very few experts (at least amongst those who speak out in public or publish). Most of the talking heads or those who publish research are just spouting delusion.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 11, 2015, 11:12:03 PM
Also CoinCube's formal training in economics is mostly irrelevant. Beyond Economics 101, most of what you learn from theory is wrong. For you to imply that is a requirement for you to read this thread, is way over the top (bringing that snotty academic cathedral attitude into a Bitcoin forum).

CoinCube, you are correct I don't give a shit about politics, because having the correct ideas and knowledge is what matters. Nothing is accomplished if decision making is done groupwise. Am I going to have to prove that, when I single-handedly have to write the crypto-currency we need?

I am tired of begging Skycoin, Monero, etc to work on what we need.

Leaders lead by doing. Followers talk, waste time, and eventually adopt what the leaders did successfully.

For my doing action today I downloaded Armstrongs prison writings. Holy smokes 2000+ typed pages. I did not realize the size of the project I have committed myself too. When I said that I was going to report back in a week... well that date looks likely to slip.

I don't want to mislead anyone about the extent of my economics training. I was an undergraduate economics major for one year before changing career paths eventually obtaining a doctorate in an unrelated field. I have long had an interest in economics but I do not by any stretch of the imagination claim to be an expert in the field. I do not believe any formal economics training is required to read and understand the concepts in this thread.

member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 10:48:26 PM
What part of "spoon feed" do you not understand?

If ever one of the 63,000 readers can't just go read the essays in the OP and read the thread, and instead has to burden the thread with their personal demands, is that realistic? I don't think you are being civil with that attitude. You are being a whining spoiled brat.

Also CoinCube's formal training in economics is mostly irrelevant. Beyond Economics 101, most of what you learn from theory is wrong. For you to imply that is a requirement for you to read this thread, is way over the top (bringing that snotty academic cathedral attitude into a Bitcoin forum).

CoinCube, you are correct I don't give a shit about politics, because having the correct ideas and knowledge is what matters. Nothing is accomplished if decision making is done groupwise. Am I going to have to prove that, when I single-handedly have to write the crypto-currency we need?

I am tired of begging Skycoin, Monero, etc to work on what we need.

Leaders lead by doing. Followers talk, waste time, and eventually adopt what the leaders did successfully.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1019
011110000110110101110010
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1019
011110000110110101110010
March 11, 2015, 09:02:50 PM
This video is good. |-|erc may not like it but it is very informative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 11, 2015, 08:56:27 PM
CoinCube, I have a question about Finance Part I:

In the most basic terms a bank can't lend money unless it has money to lend, they need to physically have the cash to give to me (for example) for a car, home, etc. So how can those funds be spent if they're made (out of thin air or accounting wizardry) as a deposit in my account upon their grant of the loan? I take that deposit, give it to the person I'm buying the car from and the bank has to payout that payment.

I'll keep reading, but I'm sure you've had questions like this before.

Edit: It's because banks can borrow too, isn't it? They can put a deposit in my account for an amount they can't cover today because they can borrow that amount tomorrow. Do I have it correct? And if so, what keeps Coinbase from doing the same thing with bitcoin, The public ledger?

Possum577 you are more or less correct. The money banks create goes by default into other banks. Thus even if the bank does not attract deposits they can borrow money from their neighbor banks. This is not free and the cost to do this is artificially set (in the US) by the FED. It is this cost that is the true limiting factor on how much money a bank can create.
This interbank lending rate is called the Federal Funds Rate.

Nothing prevents Coinbase from doing fractional reserve off chain lending. The underlying asset cryptocurrency, however, is fixed and limited in supply. Thus if when Coinbase starts doing this it will be operating much like the fractional reserve banking system did when we were on a gold standard.

The key to understanding the scam is the realization that bank lending is not limited by their deposits. Rather they create they money and in the process debase/devalue the currency of everyone else.

When a bank makes a loan it must be paid back with interest. This interest must be drawn from the larger economy.  Every time a bank creates a loan it creates more debt than currency and the overall debt burden relative to currency grows. How is this debt paid? It can only be paid via two mechanisms. Someone somewhere in the economy must take out even more debt to pay the initial loan (delay), or debt must go into default and the underlying collateral seized (eventual guaranteed outcome).

Selling assets to pay debt does not change this. A specific individual debt may be satisfied, but that money is then removed from circulation resulting in even less money to pay other debts. Banks create a false boom via sustained periods of money printing. This results in an unstable and volatile imbalance between saving and investment. Low interest rates by a central bank stimulate the creation of money by the banking system. This leads to increased capital spending funded by newly issued bank credit. This debt induced boom results in widespread malinvestment. When credit is cut off there is a massive bust as assets are liquidated at fire sale prices in an attempt to service an ultimately unserviceable debt burden. Rinse wash and repeat and you have a parasitic cycle.







legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 11, 2015, 07:50:35 PM
Possum577 I would not take insults from AnonyMint iamback too seriously. He tends to throw them around liberally at pretty much everyone. He is a very smart guy, however, and once you wade through the noise he almost always has something interesting to say you just need a strong filter.


I no longer view you as a rational and sane person..
Hey you myopic dimwits:
You all are insane.

AnonyMint I greatly respect your intellect (I started this post to explore your ideas after all). Noise, however, while very provocative and often amusing is nevertheless fundamentally just noise.

This is not a moderated thread and thus all parties are free to post anything they want. However, as noise tends to lower the overall quality of the conversation I do kindly ask all parties try and keep it to a minimum.

The more things change the more they stay the same  Cheesy  
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Loose lips sink sigs!
March 11, 2015, 05:27:05 PM


AcademicCathedralPompousPussyPossum577, you cry baby. Do you always need to be spoon fed?

iamback, How are you calling me out? For what? This is hilarious, because here you're calling me an "Academic Cathedral Pompous Pussy" but on another thread we're basically having a civil conversation.

Just because you believe what you're told, like a child, doesn't mean us adults do. I subscribe to facts and logic, if those are only available in spoon size portions I'll only be consuming one spoon at a time.

Don't be an ass. If you don't like what I have to say ignore me or mind your own fucking business.

Grow up little kid.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Loose lips sink sigs!
March 11, 2015, 04:16:33 PM
CoinCube, I have a question about Finance Part I:

In the most basic terms a bank can't lend money unless it has money to lend, they need to physically have the cash to give to me (for example) for a car, home, etc. So how can those funds be spent if they're made (out of thin air or accounting wizardry) as a deposit in my account upon their grant of the loan? I take that deposit, give it to the person I'm buying the car from and the bank has to payout that payment.

I'll keep reading, but I'm sure you've had questions like this before.

Edit: It's because banks can borrow too, isn't it? They can put a deposit in my account for an amount they can't cover today because they can borrow that amount tomorrow. Do I have it correct? And if so, what keeps Coinbase from doing the same thing with bitcoin, The public ledger?
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 02:29:01 PM
CoinCube, how can a correct prediction be confirmation bias? You go on your merry way of delusion.


AcademicCathedralPompousPussyPossum577, you cry baby. Do you always need to be spoon fed?
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 11, 2015, 02:08:22 PM
Quote from: iamback link=topic=355212.msg10734966#msg10734966
Also he was very specific in his weather prediction and his specificity (both the prediction for violent storms and the prediction for volatility in both directions...how much more specific do you  realistically expect?) was met precisely by the outcome in California (as well the abnormal reduction in tornados in the Midwest). You are choosing to erect strawman arguments because you don't want a model with many bottom-up, onion layers (a fractal and high entropy), rather you want a flat earth with hierarchical, top-down structure (low entropy guaranteed failure and implausible).

Quote from: wikipedia
Confirmation bias , also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, or recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).
 
A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In certain situations, this tendency can bias people's conclusions. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another explanation is that people show confirmation bias because they are weighing up the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.
 
Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Poor decisions due to these biases have been found in political and organizational contexts.

I think further narrow discussion about Armstrong's weather prediction in 2013 is a low utility exercise. I am going bow out on further debate until I can get more up to speed on Armstrong overall. I am curious to see if my interpretation of Armstrong differs substantially from yours or if I reach the same conclusions. I suspect that will make for a much more interesting back and forth.



sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Loose lips sink sigs!
March 11, 2015, 01:47:06 PM

Together these are quite simply the most insightful piece of economic theory I have ever read.


How much economic theory have you read, I think that's an important piece of information for me to use to decide if I should:

A) Read any further, and
B) Put any credit into your opinion that this reading is valuable.

I await your response.

I was an economics major for a year before deciding that the opportunity cost of that career track was far too high. I subsequently jumped ship to biochemistry and mathematics. I have a doctorate but it is not in a field related to economics.

I very much value my time and the time of others. If I did not believe the information was both unique and worth reading I would not have posted it.


Thanks for sharing your background. I'll check out some of the reading you've posted here and I appreciate you sharing what you know. I've found in the past that a lot of people on this forum make claims about economics or prices or industry without any real fact whatsoever, which is why asked about your credentials and expertise.

@iamback, my question was completely valid. If people are going to make serious claims about the decline of the economy or wide scale economic destruction and they're asking me (i.e., all of us) to read and consider those claims it's important for us to ask some questions regarding credibility. That's all I did, no need to get upset with me for it and don't be condescending either.

If someone preaching economic theory hasn't studied much economic theory in the past it's fair to assume that they may not know what they're talking about. That doesn't seem to be the case here, but I didn't know until I asked and CoinCube responded.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 01:10:06 PM
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 09:50:30 AM
I created a new thread to discuss this post:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/one-world-reserve-currency-inevitable-and-will-enslave-all-nations-985481

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: (idiot Armstrong): One-world reserve currency will cause all  nations to fail
From:    iamback
Date:    Wed, March 11, 2015 9:54 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/10/the-one-world-currency-not-arriving-voluntarily/

...This will cause an acceleration of capital flow into the USA, driving the USA stocks to a phase transition bubble near 40,000 by 2017. The Fed will react by raising interest rates, seeing this as an opportunity to unwind their balance sheet and to pretend to be protecting the 99% against the 1% who profit on stocks. (Note Armstrong doesn't seem to understand the Fed will do this because TPTB want the masses to beg for their own demise, its all part of the master plan towards a one-world reserve currency and global Technocracy. Armstrong doesn't understand that at Bilderberg meetings a smaller group of less than a dozen meet to discuss the real plan for the world, he isn't inside the top most circle)

This rise in interest rates will cause the rest of the world (which is short the dollar due to borrowing all the QE which ended up invested outside the USA) to collapse, thus killing the USA exports from both reduced international demand and a stronger dollar.

USA should thus follow into terminal decline in 2017.

Dominoes falling...

It is very sad for me that Armstrong is in bed with the global elite, even if he doesn't realize it.

Of course the global elite don't control destiny. Human nature is in control. But the global elite are indeed playing their role as handed to them on a silver platter by human nature.

Instead of playing into the elite's goals with his Solutions Conference. Armstrong as a programmer should be helping us to create crypto-currency solutions.

Specifically the way to counter the worse effects of the one-world currency are to study my writings about the Knowledge Age which were linked from the opening post of this now 45 page forum thread.


You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

Together these are quite simply the most insightful piece of economic theory I have ever read.

If the author is right and I think he is we are all in the midst of a tragedy of epic proportions.  It is sad unstoppable and will devastate the lives of much of humanity.

The fundamental theme is summarized in my latter essay about "Thought Isn't Fungible":

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Thought_Isn%27t_Fungible

The Industrial Age relied on large economies-of-scale for manufacturing, which meant that fixed capital investments and NAV calculations sufficed for investment. The world was structured around a fixed return on capital model. This meant that large capital could find economies-of-scale for investment.

The Knowledge Age destroys all that! Big passive capital becomes dumb and impotent. Active capital (actual knowledge) is required in the Knowledge Age.

Thus those who invest in the reserve currency unit-of-account are in a dying paradigm. That one-world currency and eventual failure of the nations into a one-world government will be paradigm of death and eugenics (exactly as predicted in the Bible).

What is rising to take its place is knowledge based currencies where the unit-of-account can be pegged to the one-world reserve currency at a carrying cost by employing options to stabilize the pegged proxy unit. Since Knowledge Age workers will generate orders-of-magnitude higher ROI than fixed capital investment models (i.e. debt models) in the one-world system, the Knowledge Age workers can easily ignore this carrying cost as insignificant.

This is the mechanism by which the Knowledge Age will conquer the one-world reserve currency.

Good day. Armstrong stop being a dinosaur and give me your damn phone number so we can talk.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1019
011110000110110101110010
March 11, 2015, 07:41:22 AM
So what if I was to tell you that I can program? Specifically database programming. What is it that one should invent to help?
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1057
bigtimespaghetti.com
March 11, 2015, 07:34:21 AM
Sometimes I wonder if Armstrong is me and I am him, and we are just the same person living in two separate bodies and spaces. We seem to post the same thing at the same time so often...

I've often wondered similarly at least at the apparent similarity in lines of thinking. Could be you're very plugged into MA's predictions which creates a certain amount of correlations in your thoughts.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 11, 2015, 07:30:13 AM
Age Correlated

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201503110008.aspx

Quote
a 58-year-old man in Taian, Shandong, a 63-year-old woman in Yueyang, Hunan, and a 52-year-old woman in Chenzhou, Hunan -- have contracted the [H7N9] flu strain

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4025352/

Quote
Yamazaki et al. performed a serological survey of avian H5N2-subtype influenza virus infections among poultry workers and found that seropositivity was significantly associated with age

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=154720&sid=43990043&con_type=1

Quote
The 61-year-old died of multiple organ failure at around 6am yesterday [March 1], hospital officials said.

He reported suffering from shortness of breath and coughing since February 16 after traveling to Dongguan on February 6-8 and again on February 14-15.

The man visited a wet market, where he selected two live chickens and had them cooked to take back to Hong Kong.

He saw a private doctor on February 16 and was admitted to Queen Mary Hospital four days later.

are unit in a critical condition, and confirmed with H7N9 on February 22.

Rapid Mutation & Spread

Deadly H7N9 to mutate by combining genetic material with Influenza A and B?

Once H7N9 combines genetic material with these other variants to produce human-to-human transmission, then the panepidemic will kill humans by the millions.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4025352/

Quote
the cross species infection from avian to mammal of H5N2 virus has already been confirmed in pigs and the possibility for further genetic reassortment to cause new H5N2 virus that might be highly virulent to human beings is also proposed

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2015/03/big-jump-h5n2-virus-hits-minnesota-turkey-farm

Quote
In big jump, H5N2 virus hits Minnesota turkey farm

A highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 virus has struck a turkey farm in west-central Minnesota, marking its first appearance in the Mississippi Flyway after surfacing in the Pacific Northwest in recent months, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced late yesterday.

"It is the same strain of avian influenza that has been confirmed in backyard and wild birds in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/flu-shot-protects-against-new-strain-of-h7n9-study-1.2241557

Quote
this US winter season's flu vaccine has been just 23 percent effective at preventing doctor visits for people of all ages.

Its lack of punch was blamed on multiple strains of the H3N2 virus that are circulating and making people sick, but that were not included in this season's vaccine.

http://www.healthline.com/health-news/seasonal-flu-vaccine-protects-against-h7n9-bird-flu-021815#4

Quote
Prior to March 2013, there were no known cases of H7N9 in humans, but the virus’ debut season resulted in 132 infections in people along with 44 deaths, according to the CDC.

http://shanghaiist.com/2015/02/12/china_confirms_100_human_infections.php

Quote
China confirms 100 human infections with H7N9 in 2015

http://outbreaknewstoday.com/china-h7n9-avian-flu-tally-nears-600/

Quote
China H7N9 avian flu tally nears 600
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