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Topic: Economic Devastation - page 107. (Read 504776 times)

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 13, 2015, 09:33:24 PM
He even failed to read the thread, because his first post was accusing me of being in support of Kurzweil's Singularity nonsense.

Are you going for a world record example of being a hypocrite?  It says right in my post:

"Can't believe this post is still going.  I can't remember, was the Anonymint age of knowledge thing supposed to inevitably lead to the creation of AI or not?"

You said you "ignored" me because I didn't read your post, then you made a claim that my post said the opposite of what it did two seconds later.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 13, 2015, 07:23:50 PM
Youth dating in the West is frivolous and lack of serious, sustained focus (no hard work):

http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/20/love-im-single-therefore-i-tinder/
http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/12/hate-it-or-love-it-tinders-right-swipe-limit-is-working

Even the 20-something Western females follow the False Life Plan[1] which is what feminism and socialism destroyed[2]:

http://nypost.com/2015/03/11/scorned-tinder-co-founder-finally-gets-revenge-against-the-tech-bros/

Westerners are fulfilled with 500 likes (greater than their Dunbar limit), but then 30-something childless and ready to the fall into the 40-something Bermuda triangle.

The Alex stats for the serious matching site OkCupid for Westerners has half the page views and time per visitor compared to the females in AsianDating that seek a foreign husband. Note the Western site is much more economically relevant with an estimated 250 million monthly visitors (140 million page views per day) versus 4 million (4 million page views per day) for AsianDating. But that will invert as the West collapses economically in Armstrong's 2015.75 Sovereign Debt BIG BANG. For comparison, bitcointalk.org has an estimated 20 million monthly visitors (but only 1 million page views per day) and has been steeply downtrending with the decline of the BTC price. Armstrongeconomics.com has about 3 million monthly visitors (but only 200,000 page views per day).

If you have young daughters, educate them in Singapore, not the USA. You will not be able to stop these cultural influences from impacting your kids. Kids are products of the mainstream culture in which they grow up.

Bottom line is rich men get more sex. Economics wins.

[1]http://blog.jim.com/culture/the-false-life-plan/
http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-future-belongs-to-those-that-show-up/
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6627#comment-1402370 (whodat? is me, name taken from my New Orleans lineage)

[2]http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6627#comment-1403223
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/01/what-socialism-destroyed-govt-shutdown/
https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aesr.ibiblio.org+feminism


member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 13, 2015, 06:36:32 PM
Some other endorsement of M.A. if anyone is interested:

Here

Those guys are quoting him out-of-context as CoinCube tried to do about the weather. Armstrong develops complex ideas over a series of blog posts. You can't cherry pick one blog post and call that a prediction. The predictions issued by the computer are complex and including many "what if" scenarios. He has been correct on gold. For example, he never claimed it would "go to $907 in 2 weeks" nor specifically in Q1 2014.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1057
bigtimespaghetti.com
March 13, 2015, 05:02:50 PM
Some other endorsement of M.A. if anyone is interested:

Here
hero member
Activity: 1022
Merit: 500
March 13, 2015, 06:10:39 AM
What a contemptible collection of rubbish.

You only need to read the last passage to know its worth:

Disclaimer: (standard financial disclaimer).


Ummm... you must not spend a lot of time reading.

It is standard practice for anyone who writes on finance and markets to add a disclaimer. No one wants to be sued.
 
Here are a few examples to get you up to speed.

http://www.russell.com/KR/_disclaimers/Advice-Warning/
http://www.403bwise.com/disclaimer/index.html
http://www.axiomcap.co.uk/content/index.php?page=disclaimer

If you want to make any sort of case that the works upthread are a "contemptible collection of rubbish" you really should put more effort into it.  




The USA used to be the land of the free, the free market, small governement and low taxes create huge wealth but big governement, higher taxes, huge debts and less free market is inducing lower standard of living.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 13, 2015, 02:36:27 AM
What a contemptible collection of rubbish.

You only need to read the last passage to know its worth:

Disclaimer: (standard financial disclaimer).


Ummm... you must not spend a lot of time reading.

It is standard practice for anyone who writes on finance and markets to add a disclaimer. No one wants to be sued.
 
Here are a few examples to get you up to speed.

http://www.russell.com/KR/_disclaimers/Advice-Warning/
http://www.403bwise.com/disclaimer/index.html
http://www.axiomcap.co.uk/content/index.php?page=disclaimer

If you want to make any sort of case that the works upthread are a "contemptible collection of rubbish" you really should put more effort into it.  


full member
Activity: 171
Merit: 100
March 13, 2015, 01:12:52 AM
What a contemptible collection of rubbish.

You only need to read the last passage to know its worth:

Disclaimer: The above expressed opinions and citations are my own and not necessarily endorsed by this site. My opinions and citations are shared as alternative perspective for your entertainment only. I cannot prevent you from deeming that my essay is educational. I am not a professional advisor, thus I claim safe harbor and I am not responsible for any outcomes, mental state, decisions or actions you experience or make after reading this essay or cited sources.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 12, 2015, 04:12:44 PM
The point was not about arguing who was first. I never accused him of reading what I wrote and stealing it ('repeating' is not a synonym for 'stealing'). I am amazed at the low level of reading comprehension that most people have.

The point was he didn't read my link, thus he didn't read my essay and wasted my time by saying I didn't write what I wrote.

People who waste my time by refusing to read what is posted, go on ignore (not the site's ignore feature, just me ignoring them even I can see their posts). He even failed to read the thread, because his first post was accusing me of being in support of Kurzweil's Singularity nonsense. Then I provided him a link to my essay and told him he was mistaken. He didn't even bother to read that, before he went off on another tirade of incorrect accusations.

I am probably first, since I was writing those ideas back in Feb. 2011 and I was contemplating them earlier than that.

Also my expose is much more foundational and complete from a generative essence goal.

He can get off my lawn now.

legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 12, 2015, 03:03:57 PM
...
I never read it before, so there's no way I'm repeating something he typed...
Some people do nothing but play chess at a high level, but can't do math, programming, art, or anything else good and are referred to as "genius".  Where exactly do you draw the line here extending that term?  
...

All ideas a built on a foundation of existing knowledge. Once the time is ripe for the emergence of an idea it is very common for similar insights to be developed independently.

If it becomes important enough (few ideas are) historians can and will sort the matter out. I see little point in arguing who was first. Even when money is at stake as with patents this can be difficult to determine. Recently our legal system has abandoned its duty to even try.

http://patentlyo.com/patent/2015/02/supreme-constitutionality-patent.html

Quote
The Supreme Court has denied MadStad Engineering’s petition for writ of certiorari in its case arguing that the first-to-file patent system is unconstitutional because the new law awards rights for the filing of a patent application and no longer requires invention.
 
Rather than reaching the merits, the district court found that MadStad lacked standing to file the lawsuit because the plaintiff could not prove any particular injury due to the law’s enactment.

Patent/Copyright law is a example of something that started out with a good intent but is morphing into something very detrimental. These laws are increasingly being used as tools for theft (via first to file) and suppression (via lawsuits) of innovation and competition.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2015, 01:38:15 PM
Haven't read it before.

I gave you the link to my essay the first time I replied to you. Readers who ignore my links get ignored by me. You are now on ignore.

lol?  He basically said I plagiarized something he wrote, then when I said I never read it before, so there's no way I'm repeating something he typed, he says he's "ignoring me".  I knew this guy was out there, but strange behavior like this while also referring to himself as a genius in posts is a little too much.  How do you even quantify the word "genius".  Everyone on the planet is basically a compartmentalized, retard savant in their own little areas of expertise.

Some people do nothing but play chess at a high level, but can't do math, programming, art, or anything else good and are referred to as "genius".  Where exactly do you draw the line here extending that term?  Are people who are masters at flipping burgers also geniuses because it provides higher real world value than chess, a game where the outcome doesn't really have any bearing on the real world.
newbie
Activity: 9
Merit: 0
March 12, 2015, 12:18:58 PM
AnonyMint why do you think teaching and debating in a bitcoinforum has more value than concentrating on coding? (link if answered already)
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 12, 2015, 11:54:30 AM
Haven't read it before.

I gave you the link to my essay the first time I replied to you. Readers who ignore my links get ignored by me. You are now on ignore.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2015, 05:49:26 AM
Your post for debunking Kurzweil doesn't really address what I was talking about.  I made the statement that real AI isn't really possible because the debug and error checking system of the AI would be entirely human designed, and this component of the system would define just about everything that the AI was doing at any given time.

Yes it does. Read it again more carefully. I already encompassed the generative essence of that.

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Algorithm_!=_Entropy

... or it's going to mirror biological evolution.

You are repeating what I wrote in my blog before you did.

Quote
Since the portion of the human genome pertaining to the brain has an entropy in the millions or billions, each human brain is potentially at least one-in-a-million or one-in-a-billion unique. Notwithstanding that uniqueness, if human evolution was entirely encoded in a finite genome, then it would be mathematically possible for a plurality of humans to have identical brains at some point in time as the brain forms before differentiation from non-identical learning environments. However, the brain is learning and exposed to the environment as it is forming in the womb, thus there is never a point in time where the brain was entirely structured from only the information in the DNA.

Thus evolution is not just an encoding from the environment to the genome, rather a continuous interaction between the ongoing environment and the genome. Thus for computers to obtain the same entropy of the collective human brainpower, they would need to be human reproducing, contributing to genome and interacting with the environment in the ways humans do. Even if computers could do this, the technological singularity would not occur, because the computers would be equivalent to adding more humans to the population.

Haven't read it before.  The whole argument basically comes down to, is it possible for machines reproducing asexually to compete with biological genetic diversity.  It's a hard call to make with the low overhead of machines creating new machines if they were also competing with each other for resources.  If the programs just existed in a vacuum and didn't have to compete with each other or biological entities for resources, then of course they're not going to develop into anything.

Instead of trying to create AI from scratch, with human based error checking and debug rules encompassing all of it's functionality, if all you did was try to digitize a rat brain, the low overhead of machine reproduction could accelerate natural selection so fast that it turns from rat to god overnight, possibly while just sitting inside of a simulator fighting other rats.  So then the question is, what is the lowest level organism needed to be digitized to accomplish such a task.

In this model, you're not actually trying to create high level organisms, you're just trying to lower the overhead of natural selection on more primitive organisms.  If the machines only used asexual type of reproduction, you could end up with only great white shark, apex predator type creatures because they're not really required to interact with other entities in a non-hostile manner.  You might have to force non-asexual reproduction to achieve higher levels of advancement in the realm of communication, etc.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 12, 2015, 05:11:02 AM
Your post for debunking Kurzweil doesn't really address what I was talking about.  I made the statement that real AI isn't really possible because the debug and error checking system of the AI would be entirely human designed, and this component of the system would define just about everything that the AI was doing at any given time.

Yes it does. Read it again more carefully. I already encompassed the generative essence of that.

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Algorithm_!=_Entropy

... or it's going to mirror biological evolution.

You are repeating what I wrote in my blog before you did.

Quote
Since the portion of the human genome pertaining to the brain has an entropy in the millions or billions, each human brain is potentially at least one-in-a-million or one-in-a-billion unique. Notwithstanding that uniqueness, if human evolution was entirely encoded in a finite genome, then it would be mathematically possible for a plurality of humans to have identical brains at some point in time as the brain forms before differentiation from non-identical learning environments. However, the brain is learning and exposed to the environment as it is forming in the womb, thus there is never a point in time where the brain was entirely structured from only the information in the DNA.

Thus evolution is not just an encoding from the environment to the genome, rather a continuous interaction between the ongoing environment and the genome. Thus for computers to obtain the same entropy of the collective human brainpower, they would need to be human reproducing, contributing to genome and interacting with the environment in the ways humans do. Even if computers could do this, the technological singularity would not occur, because the computers would be equivalent to adding more humans to the population.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2015, 05:07:28 AM
I can't remember, was the Anonymint age of knowledge thing supposed to inevitably lead to the creation of AI or not?

Absolutely not!

My seminal blog was about how Kurzweil's Singularity is nonsense; and where I had already made the points you are making about A.I..

Go read this new thread of mine to understand in one page my thesis on everything talked about in this 45 page thread.

Your post for debunking Kurzweil doesn't really address what I was talking about.  I made the statement that real AI isn't really possible because the debug and error checking system of the AI would be entirely human designed, and this component of the system would define just about everything that the AI was doing at any given time.  An example would be if the AI tried to count all the photons in it's vicinity and got hard locked at 100% CPU usage forever accomplishing basically nothing.  Without the human designed element, it might think this task is important, or that it will eventually reach a finite number and can stop, but never does.

The exception to this rule is, if the AI can, or is allowed, to rewrite it's own error checking and debug software, this doesn't necessarily mean the original version ceases to exist.  If both versions continue to exist, you have recreated evolution (asexual reproduction), and your argument about "every human brain is unique and machines aren't" probably goes out the window.  Literally hordes of physical representations of each version would arise and probably compete with each other for resources just like real animals do.  Some versions would be completely useless and just stand there counting photons, other versions, being in a different environment with different external variables, might run into other AI and try to compete with it for resources and turn into predators developing weapons for the task.

The summary is, the possibilities I see is that AI is probably either not going to happen or work at all, or it's going to mirror biological evolution.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 12, 2015, 04:02:11 AM
I can't remember, was the Anonymint age of knowledge thing supposed to inevitably lead to the creation of AI or not?

Absolutely not!

My seminal blog was about how Kurzweil's Singularity is nonsense; and where I had already made the points you are making about A.I..

Go read this new thread of mine to understand in one page my thesis on everything talked about in this 45 page thread.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2015, 03:39:59 AM
Can't believe this post is still going.  I can't remember, was the Anonymint age of knowledge thing supposed to inevitably lead to the creation of AI or not?  I was thinking about AI the other day and don't think true AI is possible unless the digital intelligence was able and allowed to rewrite it's own debug and error checking systems, then the consequences of doing so talked about at the end of the post:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10576073

I've never really seen anyone on earth bring up these numerous points about AI that I talk about for some reason.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
March 12, 2015, 02:12:59 AM
...

We are not going to go living in the wild.  I already know that will not work for us, we are too old for that crap.  Nor are we trained up to be farmers.

Ferfal's comments about rural living in dangerous Argentina are almost surely correct.  I have read about similar problems in Uruguay.  In Texas, there are problems like that (violent robberies and assaults in rural counties).  Zero Hedge just tonight had a story on problems in the oil boomtowns in ND and MT.  Rural farms != bucolic paradise, I get that.

So our plans are to stay in place.  "Plan B" (ONLY if we feel forced to leave by an "overly aggressive" US .gov) is Lima, Peru, where we have a business, ample in-laws and a city that can operate without an Internet, even without electricity (albeit uncomfortably).  But, timing would make such a decision tough to make...  We are more likely to just stay.

"Economic Devastation" does not mean TEOTWAWKI.  There is a huge spectrum of outcomes.  Most are not The End.  "The End" scenarios, perhaps, are among the least probable.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
March 12, 2015, 01:24:48 AM
I have also read (elsewhere) that many are unsatisfied with his work "post-prison".

Probably the goldbugs who are pissed that he doesn't agree that gold is manipulated, which he has revealed extensively in his blog post-prison.

Even if we have a BIG DEPOPULATION (flu epidemic, war), being better prepared than most others raises the odds of survival, perhaps even to thrive thereafter.

You will never have enough ammo to hold off the hoardes of waves of humanity attacking you, if ever we reach the point where you need to have a firefight in the first place.

Bunker mentality is a battle of attrition. It isn't realistic. A true survivalist would be able to survive with nothing but a knife.

I didn't mention that I've carried 50kg 12 foot long 6" x 6" chainsaw cut hardwood (Mahogany?) logs on my head over the mountains and valleys with the natives here in the Philippines. I know how to survive on digging camote (sweet potato) out of the ground. I can run long distances.

But that is only an insurance policy. I would much rather find a crypto solution for my well being in a modern, productive, prosperous world.

The life in the wild is harsh. Lime disease from ticks any one?
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
March 12, 2015, 12:41:53 AM
...

I studied some Economics in college as well, not enough for a major, but several classes (+/- 8 semester-classes).  I would agree that other than the very basics, most economics as practiced today is just voodoo...

(Looking back on it, perhaps I should have studied Materials Science rather than Geology and Business.  Not programming (FORTRAN) though, that disagreed with me)

iamback and CoinCube are looking at reality, and that is to be commended.

*   *   *

I read about 10 - 15 (it's been a while, I printed them out on something called "paper" and "read" them on weekends at coffee shops, etc.) or so of Armstrong's "Prison Pieces".  Many of them were very impressive, and introduced new ideas to me.  I could not find anything wrong with any of his ideas, but I am less of an expert than just about anyone here who reads my post.

I think that he is on to some important truths.  His documentation of the Romans taking the silver out of their denarius (IIRC), the STANDARD at that time was a real eye-opener.

I have only skim-read much of his blog.  I have also read (elsewhere) that many are unsatisfied with his work "post-prison".  But, I will be watching for the run-up to 2015.75...  And doing what I feel is best until then.

*   *   *

History, b!+chez.  Human nature has not changed.  Preparation "just in case" is essential.  But, I disagree with iamback on any one route or any one teacher.  Even if we have a BIG DEPOPULATION (flu epidemic, war), being better prepared than most others raises the odds of survival, perhaps even to thrive thereafter.
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