I agree too. Short term logic dictates that the coin should decrease, but it can very well increase by ten folds if people like it and want to invest in it. Hashrate is merely a consequence of the value of the coin.
But there's also another tech aspect not to forget. This coin is only 23 days old. In 3 months, the market cap must be 6 times the current one for the RPC to stay at the same price (>80000 RPC instead of ~13500 RPC).
So if you think in 6 months 1 RPC = 0.1 BTC, you're betting on market cap of no less than 10 million $ instead of the current 200k $.
Don't get me wrong, that's possible, and even more is also possible. But I think this is some nice numbers to put in perspective.
At some point, the price will reach a bottom, and from there it will have no way to go but up. Taking into account what you are saying, I'm trying to estimate when that will be.
I am also thinking about the difficulty increasing as the price increases (due to increased interest in mining)...and as a result of that, people will have to sell less RPC for more in order to return on investment. If the price decreases, miners will leave. This leaves behind only dedicated miners, who are less likely to dump immediately because they will have already made their ROI, and they have a periphery interest in the coin doing well.
What are your thoughts on this?
None really, I can't predict the interest of people.
Maybe this coin already has potential to bring 1.5 to 2GH/s with a value of 0.02 BTC/RPC because most of people in the crypto world do share Ron Paul's ideas. This is not something measurable.
There's also the current hype on the alt world again, like one month and a half ago, because of the DOGE craze brining more people (chinese) in the scene.
If RPC is targeted, its value can double easily without any reason.
If I had to guess I would say this :
- retarget in 5 days
- diff still to high, nothing changes until ~1 week after
- people mining during that time are probably holders, so no market evolution whatsoever
- diff is finally down enough to make this coin as profitable as many other out there : 10$/MH/s
- net hashrate increase slowly while the price drops because the new guys are dumpers in majority (but then again, maybe not)
- it comes to a point where everything's balanced, and this coin, after a few up and down like in any market, is now worth 0.00X BTC per RPC with a difficulty of 10 to 15.
from there, either there's a hype around this coin, and the ratio holder/dumper increases, making the coin rarer and increasing its price, or there is none, and we should never see again 0.02BTC / RPC.
This is my guess, it makes everything relying on the real interest people have in this coin, like for any coin TBH. There's no magic
Edit : long term guess. Probably good, maybe a few millions $ market cap, which is excellent in the alt crypto world. So value per RPC could very well increase to its current value or 2x 3x more.
But I don't think Ron Paul will officially support this coin for real, I mean in the way of nearly promoting it, because I would never promote a coin with my own name