Ok, so i'm gonna try a little prediction.
Theorical next block retarget is at block 12960+720 = 13680. Hardfork is at block 13650, so before next retarget.
At this block, time between diff retarget (nTargetTimespan ) becomes 5760 (s) between retargets instead of 86400 (s).
We then have this code :
// Go back by nInterval
const CBlockIndex* pindexFirst = pindexLast;
for(int i = 0; pindexFirst && i < nInterval; i++)
pindexFirst = pindexFirst->pprev;
assert(pindexFirst);
// Limit adjustment step
int64 nActualTimespan = pindexLast->GetBlockTime() - pindexFirst->GetBlockTime();
So we will go back to block 13632, and see how long it took to find those last 48 blocks.
At current hashrate it will find something like ~100000 s instead of 5760 s for nActualTimespan
A little lower we have our +- 11% and our retarget
// Our fork 11% change
if ((nHeight >= nDiffFork) || (fTestNet && (nHeight >=2016 ))) {
nActualTimespanMax = nTargetTimespan*10/9; //5760 * 10 / 9 = 6400
nActualTimespanMin = nTargetTimespan*9/10; //5760 * 9 / 10 = 5184
}
if(nActualTimespan < nActualTimespanMin) nActualTimespan = nActualTimespanMin;
if(nActualTimespan > nActualTimespanMax) nActualTimespan = nActualTimespanMax;
so nActualTimespan will obviously be 6400.
We then finish by the common
// Retarget
CBigNum bnNew;
bnNew.SetCompact(pindexLast->nBits);
bnNew *= nActualTimespan;
bnNew /= nTargetTimespan;
or INV(INV(last_diff) * 6400 / 5760), or simply last_dif * 5760 / 6400 which can simply be written last_diff * 9/10
Which means that diff will retarget to 70.446700512.
Next block retarget is at 13680, which is 30 blocks after. If hashrate stays the same (probable), we will have to wait ~16 hours before the next retarget to 63.4020304608.
Then another ~22 hours to retarget to 57.06182741472, then 20, 18, 16 ...
Until it becomes profitable enough again to stabilize, which is like 30 to 40 diff at current market price.
If price does not increase, you should not be afraid to wait nearly one full week before having a "normal" difficulty.
I copy/pasted the source code to show that I'm not just speculating without ground.
Edit : forgot to take into account the early retarget at 13680.
