Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 109.

arallmuus

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Quote from: jakelyson on January 23, 2023, 05:53:11 AM

Team Liquid is dominating too much this tour that I am inclined to believe they will not lose a map this tour. So I am betting this game to be under 2.5 maps. Gaming Gladiators are good but Team Liquid is almost perfect in drafting and executing their plays.

Thats a pretty safe option right there, I mean I would go for Liquid -1.5 on this game just to increase the odds but under 2.5 maps works as well in case GG somehow win 2 maps in a row. Pretty slim chance there because Liquid is so dominating this season with their new roster, they might even make it to TI this time through DPC points

dothebeats

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Good thing I never locked Na'Vi +1.5 because it seems like they won't take a map against G2. G2 has been playing well since the first map, and m0nesy, hunter and niko are the key elements of G2 in winning rounds and getting important clutches. Although on the side of Navi, you can see Perfecto and S1mple trying to make a difference in all of these rounds but unfortunately, electronic plays like a bot and walks in between enemy fire and just dies anywhere. This is quite unfortunate for S1mple who's trying to get better placements in tournaments, and you can see the man's frustrations whenever the cam is focused on him.

jakelyson

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Taking some action with DPC WEU later.

OG vs Entity

For me, OG and Entity are almost equal in power. I think this will go the full match and over 2.5 maps.

Team Liquid vs Gladiators

Team Liquid is dominating too much this tour that I am inclined to believe they will not lose a map this tour. So I am betting this game to be under 2.5 maps. Gaming Gladiators are good but Team Liquid is almost perfect in drafting and executing their plays.

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Quote from: jakelyson on January 22, 2023, 06:02:34 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on January 22, 2023, 04:40:29 PM

If that happens then they'll just have to meet back there and they'll be just back again to division 1 after being relegated to division 2. But, these days, I've seen the good unknown teams that are beating the tier 1 / division 1 teams assess.

That is too bad though, they will be missing a lot of DPC tournaments relegated to Division 2. And they cannot come back to DIV 1 until the second tour. And you are right, there are strong teams now in division 2 that can beat Div 1 teams. So, if Team Spirit cannot find a suitable replacement for BOOM (if they decide to replace him), they will not be able to move up to Div 1. If this continues, we might see them again in Last Chance Qualifier. It is just a waste that they let go of Nisha when they are still completely good with their roster. Just look at Team Liquid. They lost Matu but Nisha is doing really well replacing him. They are continuing their streak from their run in TI last season and seem to be stronger. That should have been Team Secret if they kept their roster last season.

I don't know how many to be exact but yeah, that's bad on their part as the time is passing by so fast and for these teams that have been or about to be relegated to division 2. It's possible that they'll also have the same fate there and will have hard time taking down teams that are also competitive especially those with young talents that haven't discovered yet but has the potential. If I were them, I'll take plans of changing roster and will scout younger talents and remove those that has to be removed and will take them as analyst or coach for the experience.

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Quote from: passwordnow on January 22, 2023, 04:40:29 PM

If that happens then they'll just have to meet back there and they'll be just back again to division 1 after being relegated to division 2. But, these days, I've seen the good unknown teams that are beating the tier 1 / division 1 teams assess.

That is too bad though, they will be missing a lot of DPC tournaments relegated to Division 2. And they cannot come back to DIV 1 until the second tour. And you are right, there are strong teams now in division 2 that can beat Div 1 teams. So, if Team Spirit cannot find a suitable replacement for BOOM (if they decide to replace him), they will not be able to move up to Div 1. If this continues, we might see them again in Last Chance Qualifier. It is just a waste that they let go of Nisha when they are still completely good with their roster. Just look at Team Liquid. They lost Matu but Nisha is doing really well replacing him. They are continuing their streak from their run in TI last season and seem to be stronger. That should have been Team Secret if they kept their roster last season.

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Quote from: arallmuus on January 20, 2023, 03:04:22 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on January 19, 2023, 09:41:55 PM

Well, Nigma looks going to be back at division II.

Yeah at this rate, they are going back to division 2. Im not even going to be betting on them because most of the time they are kinda weird. Sometimes I took the opposite team to win on 2 maps against them then Nigma ended winning a game so yeah Im not even going to touch anything with Nigma on it for now. Probably taking something on 27th on the game between Nigma and Secret, both are pretty bad right now

Just to save money, I'll also avoid betting on them and it's not worth it at all no more comebacks on this when the rank they currently have spoken for themselves. The Nigma and Secret would really be good to gamble because both teams are struggling and the bet there is just going to be for the sake of fun.

Quote from: dothebeats on January 20, 2023, 03:35:57 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on January 19, 2023, 09:41:55 PM

That's the challenge that they need to face, winning all of those three games but will they dominate with all of that? I have doubts on that as they're lackluster for all the past games that they've got. Three games are with:

Tundra
ITB
NGX

A not stacked team named ITB is even at a higher ranking currently against Team Secret and Nigma. Well, Nigma looks going to be back at division II.

On these teams, only NGX is the possible team that Team Secret can defeat, while in Tundra and ITB there is a high chance that they'll get their asses kicked. Pretty sure NGX and Team Secret will go back to Division 2 and get lower exposure in tournaments there, which is just apt considering their performances lately. Here I was hoping that whoever they replaced Nisha with in TS will perform well. In NGX, Ammar isn't really the problem, though his aggressiveness is somewhat costing Nigma a lot and they can't seem to match the kid's tempo when it comes to mid game strats.

If that happens then they'll just have to meet back there and they'll be just back again to division 1 after being relegated to division 2. But, these days, I've seen the good unknown teams that are beating the tier 1 / division 1 teams assess.

CLS63

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Astralis are still the same team having the same problems. They lost to Heroic by 2-1 as I expected and they have one last chance left in the tournament. If they finish the knockout stage successfully they can still maintain their presence. Otherwise they are out. No matter what team they face among the participants it feels like Astralis will still lose. The chemistry is still not good enough.

There is a G2 vs Natus Vincere matchup tomorrow. G2 have been seeming better than their opponent in the recent times. They beat Natus Vincere in the ESL Pro League in their most recent matchup. I will give G2 another chance for the win here.

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Quote from: jakelyson on January 22, 2023, 10:24:15 AM

Quote from: dothebeats on January 22, 2023, 03:22:28 AM

ITB -1.5 not included in a parlay is a good bet IMO. Still has lots of value and is also somewhat plausible to win given the state at which Team Secret plays currently. Whatever is happening to Team Secret is quite unfortunate, and just goes to show that most of their strength as a team previously was reliant to Nisha who is performing quite well in Team Liquid. Boom has very big shoes to fill in, and he needs to do this in a short span of time if he wants to be included in Div 1 and not grind it out for the rest of the season and not be included in huge tournaments.

I am not sure that is a good line. I think -1.5 is too much. Sure, Team Secret is in a disarray right now and they not making any wins but I do not think that ITB will win 2 straight maps against Team Secret. ITB is weak in doing the drafts and against Puppey who is a master in drafting, I think Team Secret has a better edge against ITB. I do not know the odds for that line, but I am guessing it is not enough for that risk.

If they are relegated to Div II, I think Boom will be replaced. Boom just do not click with Team Secret. Out of 5 matches they played, they only won 1 map. That is a very poor performance and if you do not know team Secret, you will not believe that they are a Finalist in TI last season.

This is why I am betting against them heavily. They managed to be in the TI grand finals in 2022 but all of a sudden they are crumbling just because they lost 1 man on the TI squad. Even Reso and Zayac cannot carry BOOM even though in the last matches against other teams, these guys are working extra to help secure farm for Crystallis and enable BOOM in the midlane. We know Puppey is a master of drafts in Dota 2, but what does that hold when they can't figure out what to do in the game?

ITB -1.5 with low stake is good. It is a juicy bet with over 2 odds the last time I checked. Not a sure win bet, but still a high chance of hitting given how paralyzed Secret seems right now.

Hopefully they replace BOOM if they go down Div 2, which has a high chance of coming true. Give Reso mid and get someone in the 3 position and maybe they have a fighting chance.

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Quote from: dothebeats on January 22, 2023, 03:22:28 AM

ITB -1.5 not included in a parlay is a good bet IMO. Still has lots of value and is also somewhat plausible to win given the state at which Team Secret plays currently. Whatever is happening to Team Secret is quite unfortunate, and just goes to show that most of their strength as a team previously was reliant to Nisha who is performing quite well in Team Liquid. Boom has very big shoes to fill in, and he needs to do this in a short span of time if he wants to be included in Div 1 and not grind it out for the rest of the season and not be included in huge tournaments.

I am not sure that is a good line. I think -1.5 is too much. Sure, Team Secret is in a disarray right now and they not making any wins but I do not think that ITB will win 2 straight maps against Team Secret. ITB is weak in doing the drafts and against Puppey who is a master in drafting, I think Team Secret has a better edge against ITB. I do not know the odds for that line, but I am guessing it is not enough for that risk.

If they are relegated to Div II, I think Boom will be replaced. Boom just do not click with Team Secret. Out of 5 matches they played, they only won 1 map. That is a very poor performance and if you do not know team Secret, you will not believe that they are a Finalist in TI last season.

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Quote from: arallmuus on January 21, 2023, 04:12:49 PM

Quote from: ralle14 on January 20, 2023, 09:04:57 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on January 20, 2023, 03:04:22 PM

Anyway, Im taking Tundra -1.5 against Secret

Nice win on Tundra, I skipped them thinking they might troll again, and settled with a small parlay between OG -1.5 and Liquid -1.5 for 1.89 odds. Grin

The odds for the Sunday games seem interesting, Team Liquid @1.52 vs Gladiators is too good, and OG @1.45 vs Entity as well I might put these two in a parlay.

What about adding ITB in between for the parlay? I honestly think that ITB would be able to win a game against Secret and at some point, they might be able to win against Secret considering how bad Secret is this season. Might even take ITB -1.5 in this game for lower stake but yeah I'll think about it later, still few days to go

ITB -1.5 not included in a parlay is a good bet IMO. Still has lots of value and is also somewhat plausible to win given the state at which Team Secret plays currently. Whatever is happening to Team Secret is quite unfortunate, and just goes to show that most of their strength as a team previously was reliant to Nisha who is performing quite well in Team Liquid. Boom has very big shoes to fill in, and he needs to do this in a short span of time if he wants to be included in Div 1 and not grind it out for the rest of the season and not be included in huge tournaments.

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Quote from: jakelyson on January 21, 2023, 01:57:02 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on January 20, 2023, 03:04:22 PM

Anyway, Im taking Tundra -1.5 against Secret

Congrats! That is a good bet. Tundra has beaten Team Secret so easily. Just 24 minutes in game 1 and 36 minutes in game 2. Team Secret is still winless in this tour. For sure they will be back to Division 2.

after Team Secret sold its flagship player Nisha, Team Secret performance became weak in these several matches. a disappointment when i used to be Team Secret was my favorite team in dota 2 and now i have forgotten that team. I think that in the past few matches Team Secret still has hope of winning, but in reality I always lose when I bet on Team Secret, it's really bad.
and I'm sure, Team Secret will always be bad in this DPC match and it is Team Liquid + Tundra who will have the upper hand in this season's DPC

ralle14

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Quote from: arallmuus on January 21, 2023, 04:12:49 PM

What about adding ITB in between for the parlay? I honestly think that ITB would be able to win a game against Secret and at some point, they might be able to win against Secret considering how bad Secret is this season. Might even take ITB -1.5 in this game for lower stake but yeah I'll think about it later, still few days to go

Good call, after the odds dropped significantly on OG and Team Liquid i've done just that Grin

and got a total odds of 2.18 on all three(with ITB+1.5).

I might also bet on Geek Slate(4-0) to win @1.65 vs Talon Esports(2-2) since they're close to securing the first major spot in their region and last week they 2-0'd a couple of good teams like Bleed and Execration.

arallmuus

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Quote from: ralle14 on January 20, 2023, 09:04:57 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on January 20, 2023, 03:04:22 PM

Anyway, Im taking Tundra -1.5 against Secret

Nice win on Tundra, I skipped them thinking they might troll again, and settled with a small parlay between OG -1.5 and Liquid -1.5 for 1.89 odds. Grin

The odds for the Sunday games seem interesting, Team Liquid @1.52 vs Gladiators is too good, and OG @1.45 vs Entity as well I might put these two in a parlay.

What about adding ITB in between for the parlay? I honestly think that ITB would be able to win a game against Secret and at some point, they might be able to win against Secret considering how bad Secret is this season. Might even take ITB -1.5 in this game for lower stake but yeah I'll think about it later, still few days to go

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Quote from: ralle14 on January 19, 2023, 06:52:18 PM

The Vitality vs Astralis series felt like a choke from Astralis because whenever they take the lead and potentially pull away they somehow lose and momentum slowly shifts to the side of Vitality.

Vitality really made it by 2-0 in total. I can't say that it was a very comfortable victory for their side despite the score. Because both maps were quite competitive. Especially on Vertigo we watched a bigger competition but Astralis still couldn't resist them. They should have won on the map they picked at least. Spinx was generally the impressive player in this matchup. He got two 1vs2 clutches and 3 kills in OT on Vertigo.

Vitality are even in the final round of their group now by defeating Evil Geniuses as well. Let's see what team will be their opponent. Heroic - Astralis has started and we will see which side will be EG's opponent as well. If Heroic make it then this time I expect them to defeat EG.

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Quote from: arallmuus on January 20, 2023, 03:04:22 PM

Anyway, Im taking Tundra -1.5 against Secret

Congrats! That is a good bet. Tundra has beaten Team Secret so easily. Just 24 minutes in game 1 and 36 minutes in game 2. Team Secret is still winless in this tour. For sure they will be back to Division 2.

Quote from: dothebeats on January 20, 2023, 03:35:57 PM

On these teams, only NGX is the possible team that Team Secret can defeat, while in Tundra and ITB there is a high chance that they'll get their asses kicked. Pretty sure NGX and Team Secret will go back to Division 2 and get lower exposure in tournaments there, which is just apt considering their performances lately. Here I was hoping that whoever they replaced Nisha with in TS will perform well. In NGX, Ammar isn't really the problem, though his aggressiveness is somewhat costing Nigma a lot and they can't seem to match the kid's tempo when it comes to mid game strats.

I think Team Secret can win against ITB. ITB can be good in the in game, but they are shaky during the drafting. With Puppy in team Secret, they can easily draft against ITB. NGX is the only other team that is winless in this DPC WEU tour. It will be a coin toss with these two who will win in their match.

Quote from: ralle14 on January 20, 2023, 09:04:57 PM

The odds for the Sunday games seem interesting, Team Liquid @1.52 vs Gladiators is too good, and OG @1.45 vs Entity as well I might put these two in a parlay.

I watched team Liquid games, and they are perfectly executing their game. 1.52 against GG is already a good line. Maybe I will take this action too as soon as Stake opens a line for this match. These two matches will go the distance, so betting on over 2.5 games is also a good line.

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Quote from: inthelongrun on January 21, 2023, 08:53:16 AM

So it seems like the Southeast Asian region will be sending new teams for the Lima Major. I kind of like this after the region showed poor performance in the last TI which was supposed to be a home-court advantage. Talon, BOOM, and Fnatic, the former powerhouse teams in the region are likely unable to chase the early lead of the new teams.

Some of the new teams you mentioned have players that came from these powerhouses last season, so it's almost the same names really, just under different organizations. One of the names that is performing really well as of late is Blacklist International, which consists of almost all of the former TNC players. They really are living up to the hype, and hopefully they don't lose steam as the season progresses.

Quote from: inthelongrun on January 21, 2023, 08:53:16 AM

I was busy lately on the World Championship of Mobile Legends. I wonder if anybody here playing and following that mobile game. I am starting to lessen my DOTA 2 games since I do have much extra time to play whereas in Mobile Legends a rank game ends usually in 12 to 18 minutes.

The thing with MLBB tournaments is that there aren't much bookies that offer such lines save for some local bookies that only deal with fiat. I also like to play MLBB more than Dota 2, but the complexity and the overall dynamics is better in Dota 2 more than in MLBB tbh.

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So it seems like the Southeast Asian region will be sending new teams for the Lima Major. I kind of like this after the region showed poor performance in the last TI which was supposed to be a home-court advantage. Talon, BOOM, and Fnatic, the former powerhouse teams in the region are likely unable to chase the early lead of the new teams.

I was busy lately on the World Championship of Mobile Legends. I wonder if anybody here playing and following that mobile game. I am starting to lessen my DOTA 2 games since I do have much extra time to play whereas in Mobile Legends a rank game ends usually in 12 to 18 minutes.

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Quote from: Mauser on January 21, 2023, 04:15:36 AM

The first match will be NaVi vs NiP, which should be a win for NaVi in my mind. On paper NaVi is the much stronger team even though they lost to NiP in the BLAST Premier Fall 2022. I think NaVi is motivated for 2023 and will show a strong performance after mixed results last year.

Both teams have different lineups compared to the last time they played each other eight weeks ago. NIP has -es3tag +headtr1ck, while NaVi has -sdy +npl. With these changes in mind, I think this match has the potential for an upset. Even though I would personally rooting for NaVi, the odds of 2.3 for NIP make it tempting to place a bet on them.

This will also be the first full BO3 match for npl with NaVi. I've been eagerly waiting for the continuation of the NaVi era since 2021, and I hope they can achieve that in 2023 with the addition of npl to their roster. It will be interesting to see how the game will turn out.

Quote from: Mauser on January 21, 2023, 04:15:36 AM

Evil Geniuses managed to beat Heroic in the first match which was very unexpected and also a close match between them, winning two maps 16-14. There is no chance for them to pull it of again against Vitality. Vitality is a strong team with ZywOo and should be taking that match easily.

I agree Vitality should have an easy win against EG in that game. Too bad the odd is so low, I'll skip that.

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Three more matches of the group stage of the Blast Premier Spring 2023 are being played today. Missed all the games yesterday as I was travelling, but want to place bets on all three matches today. The first match will be NaVi vs NiP, which should be a win for NaVi in my mind. On paper NaVi is the much stronger team even though they lost to NiP in the BLAST Premier Fall 2022. I think NaVi is motivated for 2023 and will show a strong performance after mixed results last year. Evil Geniuses managed to beat Heroic in the first match which was very unexpected and also a close match between them, winning two maps 16-14. There is no chance for them to pull it of again against Vitality. Vitality is a strong team with ZywOo and should be taking that match easily. The last game will be the lower bracket finals between Astralis and Heroic, a full danish match up. Heroic is the much stronger team and should win that match easily. The played each other in the Blast Premier Fall 2022 where Heroic won 2-0. Hopefully in none of the three matches today will be an unexpected winner.

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Quote from: dothebeats on January 20, 2023, 03:35:57 PM

On these teams, only NGX is the possible team that Team Secret can defeat, while in Tundra and ITB there is a high chance that they'll get their asses kicked.

I also agree that ITB has the edge against Team Secret when they're able to pressure other teams and grab at least a map but the bookies expect Team Secret to get their first series win after winning a game this week as they have Team Secret to win @1.55 odds.

Quote from: arallmuus on January 20, 2023, 03:04:22 PM

Anyway, Im taking Tundra -1.5 against Secret

Nice win on Tundra, I skipped them thinking they might troll again, and settled with a small parlay between OG -1.5 and Liquid -1.5 for 1.89 odds. Grin

The odds for the Sunday games seem interesting, Team Liquid @1.52 vs Gladiators is too good, and OG @1.45 vs Entity as well I might put these two in a parlay.

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 109. (Read 68309 times)