Topic: Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013 - page 11. (Read 30659 times)
August 29, 2013, 02:47:34 PM
Reserved for highlights from original thread.
August 29, 2013, 02:42:28 PM
Moderated version. The original thread (now locked) is useful to see how the numbers evolved.
The idea
The purpose is to try to guesstimate (and yes that means error) the amount of hashpower in "the pipeline". If there were no pre-orders, difficulty would rise based on sales and that makes future sales less attractive (lower ROI%) which reduces the amount of future sales. This economic feedback model constrains hashing power based on efficiency, electrical cost, capital cost, exchange rate, the risk premium miners are willing to accept and the time value of money. GPU didn't continue to grow to petahash scale because as new hardware was deployed it lowered the reward and increased the risk on future hardware and this slowed the growth until a rising exchange rate improved the reward.
Preorders break this feedback cycle as difficulty doesn't rise until delivery. This can result in sold (but undelivered) capacity growing faster and larger than would happen if it was constrained by immediate feedback. This is a great scenario for hardware vendors; they can sell more hardware, earlier and at higher prices. On the other hand it means miners may face an avalanche of hardware purchased by their peers who don't quite understand how high difficulty can go. Accurately projecting growth for any period of time longer than a month is probably an exercise in futility. We can however look at it from a different direction; if we can guesstimate the amount of preorders and can also estimate delivery timeframe then we can use that for the basis of a curve. So throw me your cites, guesstimates, and official numbers to try an pin down how much capacity has already been purchased.
The rules
1) To keep this thread from derailing please leave the "xyz is a scam" or "abc sucks because ..." posts for another topic.
2 ) No idea/number is bad. Please be respectful. Honestly nobody knows for sure, except the chip makers and they aren't talking.
3 ) To stay on topic I will erase anything even remotely in violation of rule #1 and #2
4 ) A good starting point is the total amount preordered. It may not be realistic but it provides a starting point.
5 ) Right now we aren't so much worried how likely a plan is just that there is a plan. We can discount the hashpower by probability later (on edit: starting separating unfunded plans from presales and investor funded operations)
6 ) If you have a reference or cite (even unofficial) to back up a guestimate please link to it.
7 ) If there is no reference a reasonable explanation is more useful then just posting a number. "Show your work".
8 ) We can safely assume that all non-ASIC hashrate will go to zero so no need to break it out between delivered and ordered. Eventually hashrate ~= total pre-orders.
9 ) Mining companies buying retail product won't be listed seperately as they should already be included in the chip makers total. Large operations should be noted so we can improve the estimate for the chip maker.
The running total
Promised delivery by December 2013
Announced product but insufficient information to make an informed analysis (should be considered lower confidence and conservative estimators may wish to exclude completely)
Post 2013 rollouts
Relationship between difficulty and hashing power
Upper limits on difficulty based on hardware efficiency:
Miners are unlikely to mine when their electrical costs are higher than the value of BTC mined. This limit can be called the electrical break even point and is based on:
a) the current exchange rate (USD per BTC)
b) the hardware efficiency (J/GH )
c) the miner's electrical rate (USD per kWh)
When hashrate/difficulty gets high enough it will cause the least efficiency miners to idle thus creating a sort of replacement cycle (i.e. x GH/s new efficiency hardware causes Y GH/s of older less efficient hardware to idle). This should slow growth significantly because the returns on new hardware will be low, miners will be exposed to the bad news of less efficient miners being forced to idle and X GH/s doesn't mean the hashrate only rises by (X-Y)/GH. It also illustrates the improbability of difficulty power growing exponentially over a long period of time like a year. For example 65 million difficulty gaining 75% per month for a year results in 50 billion difficulty. The electrical cost even at 1W/GH and $0.10 per kWh would >$250 per BTC.
A related thread on the break even point is here: Break even difficulty by hardware efficiency (power cost = value of BTC)
[1] https://docs.google.com/a/nacrypto.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiLYkKIHJaIsdHpIaGdUOWRYVUdncTNpNlVKbVhCbEE#gid=0 970,000 chips @ 282 MH nominal
[2] 550 orders @ 400 MH nominal
[3] Based on report that Dave (US distributor) sold out of their allocation of 300 full systems and 300 starter systems. Oct is not sold out but conservatively it will if/when Aug deliveries are made. I will assume that the EU distributor received an equal allocation (an assumption based on bitfury facing unknown demand and users in both markets).
[4] http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/8577/how-much-asic-power-has-been-or-is-being-shipped-in-2013 Crude assumption based on distribution of wait list (hashing power per order) and number of orders. 2PH/s is guestimated based on (avg GH/s per order of known orders)*(num order numbers)*(1/3 to account for unpaid/test orders). Monarch is highly unlikely to ship in volume (if at all) in 2013 while upgrades cancel the existing 65nm order which would reduce the amount of 65nm pre-orders.
[5] Guestimate. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2994436
[6] https://bitfunder.com/asset/IceDrill.ASIC
[7] http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=336
[8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
[9] Reduced to 30 full systems in Aug for both US and EU distributors https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3010364
[10] http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/ "In Dec" without a specific date can mean as late as 31 DEC. Given that and the tight schedule and the fact that even a small delay would push it into 2014 I included it in the 2014 group. Cointerra promises 20% additional hashrate if more than 30 days late so bump the amount from 2 PH/s to 2.5 PH/s.
[11] https://ghash.io/
[12] HashFast MPP will issue miners up to 4x their initial hashing power if 100% ROI is not acheived within 90 days. Even if MPP is not needed, HashFast would need the chips in reserve and any chips not paid out in the MPP are likely to be deployed as quickly as possible.
[13] http://www.coindesk.com/bitmine-to-drop-4phs-of-asic-power-onto-bitcoin-network-before-april/
[14] http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-expects-to-deliver-2-phs-of-asics-in-december/ (Numerous references, Cointerra 2PH/s, KNC 0.5 to 2 PH/s, AsicMiner 1 PH/s, Bitfury 0.5 PH/s, Avalon 0.32 PH/s
[15] Upgraded BFL estimate from 2 PH/s to 3 PH/s https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029092 (see also the next two posts)
[16] https://picostocks.com/docs/index/19
[17] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3033042
[18] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3046590
[19] http://thegenesisblock.com/easic-announces-24-ths-hash-fast-miner-activemining-shares-move-70/
[20] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3125451
The idea
The purpose is to try to guesstimate (and yes that means error) the amount of hashpower in "the pipeline". If there were no pre-orders, difficulty would rise based on sales and that makes future sales less attractive (lower ROI%) which reduces the amount of future sales. This economic feedback model constrains hashing power based on efficiency, electrical cost, capital cost, exchange rate, the risk premium miners are willing to accept and the time value of money. GPU didn't continue to grow to petahash scale because as new hardware was deployed it lowered the reward and increased the risk on future hardware and this slowed the growth until a rising exchange rate improved the reward.
Preorders break this feedback cycle as difficulty doesn't rise until delivery. This can result in sold (but undelivered) capacity growing faster and larger than would happen if it was constrained by immediate feedback. This is a great scenario for hardware vendors; they can sell more hardware, earlier and at higher prices. On the other hand it means miners may face an avalanche of hardware purchased by their peers who don't quite understand how high difficulty can go. Accurately projecting growth for any period of time longer than a month is probably an exercise in futility. We can however look at it from a different direction; if we can guesstimate the amount of preorders and can also estimate delivery timeframe then we can use that for the basis of a curve. So throw me your cites, guesstimates, and official numbers to try an pin down how much capacity has already been purchased.
The rules
1) To keep this thread from derailing please leave the "xyz is a scam" or "abc sucks because ..." posts for another topic.
2 ) No idea/number is bad. Please be respectful. Honestly nobody knows for sure, except the chip makers and they aren't talking.
3 ) To stay on topic I will erase anything even remotely in violation of rule #1 and #2
4 ) A good starting point is the total amount preordered. It may not be realistic but it provides a starting point.
5 ) Right now we aren't so much worried how likely a plan is just that there is a plan. We can discount the hashpower by probability later (on edit: starting separating unfunded plans from presales and investor funded operations)
6 ) If you have a reference or cite (even unofficial) to back up a guestimate please link to it.
7 ) If there is no reference a reasonable explanation is more useful then just posting a number. "Show your work".
8 ) We can safely assume that all non-ASIC hashrate will go to zero so no need to break it out between delivered and ordered. Eventually hashrate ~= total pre-orders.
9 ) Mining companies buying retail product won't be listed seperately as they should already be included in the chip makers total. Large operations should be noted so we can improve the estimate for the chip maker.
The running total
Promised delivery by December 2013
Code:
AsicMiner (internal): 1,000 Thash [7] [14]
AsicMiner (sales): 500 Thash
Avalon (rigs): 123 Thash
Avalon (chips): 274 Thash [1]
Bitfury (internal): 500 Thash [11]
Bitfury (Aug US & EU): 50 Thash [3] [9]
Bitfury (Oct US & EU): 255 Thash [3]
Bitfury (metabank): 32 THash
Bitfury (100/200TH mine): 200 THash [16]
Bitfury chips: 500 Thash (guestimate putting total Bitfury chips all forms & batches at ~ 1.5 PH/s or <200 wafers @ 55nm)
BFL (SC series): 3,000 THash [4] [15]
HashFast ("Oct"): 500 Thash [2] [6] (will not ship till early Nov but this reflects total of Batch 1, IceDrill, & BabyJet Upgrades)
HashFast (Nov/Dec): 2,000 Thash ??
KNC (Sept/Oct): 2,000 Thash [5] [8] [20]
KNC (Nov): 2,000 Thash
--------------------------------------------------------------
Running Total: 12,934 Thash
Announced product but insufficient information to make an informed analysis (should be considered lower confidence and conservative estimators may wish to exclude completely)
Code:
ActiveMining: ?? Thash [19]
AsicMiner ("next gen"): ?? Thash
Avalon ("next gen"): ?? Thash
BTCGARDEN: 1,750 Thash [17]
LabCoin: 53 Thash [18] DEAD?
xCrowd: ?? Thash DEAD?
--------------------------------------------------------------
Running Total: 1,803 Thash
Post 2013 rollouts
Code:
Cointerra: 2,500 Thash (January 2014) [10]
HashFast (MPP or reserve): 880 Thash (January 2014) [12]
BFL (monarch): ?? Thash (February 2014)
BitMine: 4,000 Thash (March 2014) [13]
--------------------------------------------------------------
Running Total: 7,380 Thash
Code:
Presales Total 2013: 12,934 Thash
Announced Total 2013: 1,803 Thash
Running Total 2014: 7,380 Thash
--------------------------------------------------------------
Combined Total: 22,117 Thash
Relationship between difficulty and hashing power
Code:
1 TH/s = 0.14 mil difficulty
1 PH/s = 140 mil difficulty
1 million difficulty = 7 TH/s
1 billion difficulty = 7 PH/s
1 trillion difficulty = 7 EH/s
Upper limits on difficulty based on hardware efficiency:
Miners are unlikely to mine when their electrical costs are higher than the value of BTC mined. This limit can be called the electrical break even point and is based on:
a) the current exchange rate (USD per BTC)
b) the hardware efficiency (J/GH )
c) the miner's electrical rate (USD per kWh)
When hashrate/difficulty gets high enough it will cause the least efficiency miners to idle thus creating a sort of replacement cycle (i.e. x GH/s new efficiency hardware causes Y GH/s of older less efficient hardware to idle). This should slow growth significantly because the returns on new hardware will be low, miners will be exposed to the bad news of less efficient miners being forced to idle and X GH/s doesn't mean the hashrate only rises by (X-Y)/GH. It also illustrates the improbability of difficulty power growing exponentially over a long period of time like a year. For example 65 million difficulty gaining 75% per month for a year results in 50 billion difficulty. The electrical cost even at 1W/GH and $0.10 per kWh would >$250 per BTC.
A related thread on the break even point is here: Break even difficulty by hardware efficiency (power cost = value of BTC)
[1] https://docs.google.com/a/nacrypto.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiLYkKIHJaIsdHpIaGdUOWRYVUdncTNpNlVKbVhCbEE#gid=0 970,000 chips @ 282 MH nominal
[2] 550 orders @ 400 MH nominal
[3] Based on report that Dave (US distributor) sold out of their allocation of 300 full systems and 300 starter systems. Oct is not sold out but conservatively it will if/when Aug deliveries are made. I will assume that the EU distributor received an equal allocation (an assumption based on bitfury facing unknown demand and users in both markets).
[4] http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/8577/how-much-asic-power-has-been-or-is-being-shipped-in-2013 Crude assumption based on distribution of wait list (hashing power per order) and number of orders. 2PH/s is guestimated based on (avg GH/s per order of known orders)*(num order numbers)*(1/3 to account for unpaid/test orders). Monarch is highly unlikely to ship in volume (if at all) in 2013 while upgrades cancel the existing 65nm order which would reduce the amount of 65nm pre-orders.
[5] Guestimate. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2994436
[6] https://bitfunder.com/asset/IceDrill.ASIC
[7] http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=336
[8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
[9] Reduced to 30 full systems in Aug for both US and EU distributors https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3010364
[10] http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/ "In Dec" without a specific date can mean as late as 31 DEC. Given that and the tight schedule and the fact that even a small delay would push it into 2014 I included it in the 2014 group. Cointerra promises 20% additional hashrate if more than 30 days late so bump the amount from 2 PH/s to 2.5 PH/s.
[11] https://ghash.io/
[12] HashFast MPP will issue miners up to 4x their initial hashing power if 100% ROI is not acheived within 90 days. Even if MPP is not needed, HashFast would need the chips in reserve and any chips not paid out in the MPP are likely to be deployed as quickly as possible.
[13] http://www.coindesk.com/bitmine-to-drop-4phs-of-asic-power-onto-bitcoin-network-before-april/
[14] http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-expects-to-deliver-2-phs-of-asics-in-december/ (Numerous references, Cointerra 2PH/s, KNC 0.5 to 2 PH/s, AsicMiner 1 PH/s, Bitfury 0.5 PH/s, Avalon 0.32 PH/s
[15] Upgraded BFL estimate from 2 PH/s to 3 PH/s https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029092 (see also the next two posts)
[16] https://picostocks.com/docs/index/19
[17] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3033042
[18] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3046590
[19] http://thegenesisblock.com/easic-announces-24-ths-hash-fast-miner-activemining-shares-move-70/
[20] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3125451
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