Topic: EUR might drop below USD - page 21. (Read 33651 times)

Think not a low dollar is good for American economy.

no i think. European, s  economy  is  pretty better  then United nation.

take a long view with it. only  after  30years later  that will be possible

Many investor look market on usa thats why usd strong to all other fiat.

I thought they would kicked, but damn, Varufakis is alfa as fuck. He might as well get away with intimidating the Troika.

IMO it would be more likely that they leave the Euro on their own accord. Doing so would give them much more fiscal flexibility. It would also however potentially be the start of the failure of the Euro, so other EU governments might be willing to step in and bail out greece in the event they try to leave

I don't believe Greece will get kicked out. They will just find a way to renegotiate the debt. The Troika and Germany have been under a lot of pressure to ease the austerity measures. Not only from other EU countries but from outside also. They know they can't keep it up forever.

Its hard believe that the entire world is ready to destroy their own economies for Ukraine?
Ukraine can never be trusted. They have always been unreliable partners.

No if they leave the whole confidence of this whole EU concept will decrease taking the euro price with it, pvv atm the leading political party vote wise for elections in the Netherlands wants to get out of the EU if they get elected.

In this case Russia and the US have the same plan. Divide Europe! Look at how bad the European economy has gotten since they decided to follower Obama with sanctions. No Greece will separate and weaken the EU even more. Obama will implement his US/European free-trade agreement and possible merge the US dollar and Euro since they will be of equal value soon. Russia will continue doing business with european countries outside of the Trioka.

They will come up with a way to kick the can down the road, I'm not worried!
Interest free bonds for example.

Theres no other option. If Greece gov make a deal with Troika they will commit suicide with their own voters, if they do not do what Troika says, Greece has to go. Someone will lose big time.

It's not Merkel that would do that. At least not officially. Then, there are no mechanisms to actually do it. And Spain is a large country with close to 50 million people. Kicking it out would not be an option.

this is true..
but remember, europeans are not americans.

if salaries remain low and domestic demand will not restart,
if salaries do not increase, there will not be improvements.

I predict a long stagnation like for japan 2008-2012

Merkel can kick Greece out of the Euro, not Spain, but Greece? for sure, its not that important, same for the other low tier countries.

No one can throw out Greece from the € zone.
At most they could prevent the central Bank of Greece to have any say on the ECB board.
But no one can prevent the Greece and the greeks from using € inside Greece.

The problem is, the greeks have already moved their money from banks in Greece to accounts in other places like Germany, safe from forced conversion.
Without the ECB giving Greece printed notes and fresh cash, the banks would run out of cash and would have an empty balance pretty fast.

If the Tsipras government stop paying the debts and no agreement is reached with the debtors, it is probable the banks (the Greece's banks first of all) will be the first victims. They have bought a lot of the government's bonds and a lot is in the balance of the Greece Central Bank. So, if the government stop paying, many banks in Greece will be unable to survive and literaly all their accounts will be wiped out (like in Cyprus).

The problem is, then, for other governments in the EU. They are on the hook for a lot of money. Italy, for example, is on the hook for 40 billions (at least, maybe more) if Greece stop paying. This is around 650 €/inhabitants (newborns included). This would go to increase the already large government debt of Italy. It would not be pretty for France or Germany too. They are less indebted than Italy, but not so far back. Italy account for all its government debts where Germany accounts just for a part (some is unaccounted and ont he balance sheet of other entities, but the German government is the one responsable to pay these bills).

Many banks in the Euro Area (and outside) will have their balance sheets devastated and some will not survive. Surely credit will dry even more than now.

All of this is driving a bubble in Germany and some other countries some people see as "safe heavens". People moving their savings from the periphery of the EU to the center make, for a time, the center appear more prosperous and solid than it is in reality. The low interest rate there is fueling a real estate bubble and damaging the return of retirement funds. This is the reason deflation is good and needed, the prices need to fall to compensate for the low/sero interest rates.

In the end, Germany is a lot more healthy than Greece because it reformed its economy fitteen years ago and it was not pretty at the time. Greece didn't, Italy tried and failed miserably, France was trying to play "buddy" with Germany and Germany allowed them to think politics trump economics. But northern economies can not play with money printing and bad loans without risking a lot. It is cold there, like in Finland. And if you destroy your economy because of high taxes and bad loans to profligate spenders when winter come you have no money to heat your home and buy your food.

With all the QEs and with the USA economy getting stronger, it will not be surprising if the Euro drop below parity

Competitive devaluation will continue to occur.
If the EUR weakens against other currencies, other countries will start devaluing their currencies as well.
Then one day, people would get tired and switch to Bitcoin. 

Syryza do not reach the absolute majority for two seats...
i think Syryza will be innoque like Holland and Renzi.
after all, the European markets were not affected by
Syryza win!
If Syryza were really dangerous all the europe stock exchange, on Monday, would open with heavy losses!!!

but it was not so!!!!

Euro-Area Prices Slide at Rate Last Seen in 2009

"Sinking prices combined with stubbornly high unemployment led the European Central Bank president to announce a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) stimulus plan last week that centered on government-bond purchases. Even though the size of the program exceeded economists’ forecasts, it’s still unclear whether it will be enough to return inflation to the Frankfurt-based central bank’s goal of just under 2 percent."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/euro-area-prices-extend-slide-in-sign-ecb-late-to-deflation-game

First wait and let it climb to parity