In the race, Ferrari are still having the same issues against Red Bull. The strategies of both teams for these drivers will play the biggest role of course. But Red Bull make mistakes much less than Ferrari so Perez is very likely to finish the season at the 2nd position in the driver standings.
Even more, Verstappen gave the impression that he was convinced and will be helping Checo today (he did already help him in Q3 too, at least partly, providing Checo a very useful aerodynamic net).
So I fear the real threat may be the Mercs today; they really want to prove something and they have a pretty good chance to end before Ferrari.
Or, with some luck for Checo, the fight between Merc and Ferrari could be his chance to have no real competition. I don't know how all this will goo. Let's wait and see.
For now, however, it looks like the podium could be VER-PER-HAM (since Hamilton also wants badly to end at least before his teammate).