Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 26. (Read 12691 times)

Not sure why Wisconsin is favored in this game. The Badgers lost their only road game of the season to Marquette and they have not won at Michigan State since 2004. Wisconsin has not left the state thus far into the season and this is a game where they will not be the more talented team. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between Wisconsin and Michigan State. The Spartans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing road record.

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I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I know that Memphis is a big buzz team because of Ja Morant and their young core. But I'm going with experience here. The Spurs may be heading into a deep rebuild. But right now, tonight, they still have some guys that can play. LaMarcus Aldridge is back. Demar Derozan can still do it. And they still have enough guys like Rudy Gay, Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray that can do some things. I'm not buying long on the Spurs for this season. But it's kind of a red flag when 70 percent of the action is coming down on one side, Memphis, and the line is moving the other way. I know that Gregg Popovich will have his guys ready to play in this game and I like them to start the season with a win.

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The Wizards are under the radar coming into this season. We think they are going to be pretty good and a solid ATS team to start the season. Russell Westbrook is a great addition to this team and he pairs with Beal extremely well. This team has some nice young talent, and Westbrook's presence will help them develop and he will take a lot of pressure off Beal, who had a great season last year and should be even better with the pressure off him to carry the team this year. This team will be putting up some crazy numbers on offense and should be able to win a lot of shootouts. Watch out if they can play any defense. Philly got off to a slow start last season and we think that could be the case this season with a new coach and still a strange mix of players that has never figured the formula for success to match their talent.

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Penn State has covered just one of their last six home games and we'll go against them on Wednesday. They're likely to have matchup problems in this one thanks to Illinois' size advantage. And while the Illini are 2nd in the nation in 2-point accuracy and 28th from beyond the arc, Penn State ranks 232nd defending the 2-pointer, allowing teams to make over 52% of their shots from inside the 3-point line. At the same time, Penn State's struggling on the offensive end where they're making just 45% of their 2-point shots, ranking 250th in that all-important category. Illinois has fared well on the defensive end against the 2 and the 3, and they've been a beast off a loss. The Illini won at Duke 83-68, following their first loss of the season, and crushed Minnesota 92-55 off their second loss. Illinois lost by 3 at a very good Rutgers team last time out and I expect another bounce back win and cover tonight. They're on an 8-3 ATS run off a SU loss overall, while PSU has covered just 3 of their last 11 overall, since last season. I'm laying the points with Illinois on Wednesday.

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We like the Over as the second day of the English League Cup kicks off on Wednesday. Stoke City, currently in seventh in the English Championship (second division) host Tottenham who sit in sixth place in the English Premier League. Stoke are coming off a 1-0 home win over 11th place Blackburn Rovers, extending their unbeaten run to three-matches. At home, Stoke are flip flopping wins for losses, going 3-2-0 in their last five matches, they have not won back to back matches at home since mid-November. In the League Cup they have won four in a row this season, with wins over Premier League sides Wolverhampton and Aston Villa. For Tottenham, they have lost two in a row and are winless in their last three. They come off a 2-0 home loss to Leicester that followed a 2-1 loss a Liverpool. Tottenham have failed to score in four matches this season, the following match Tottenham have won 2-1 on the previous three occasions. In the League Cup, Tottenham have only had to play one match, beating Chelsea at home on penalties after a 1-1 draw. These two last played in the Premier League in April 2018 with Tottenham winning their fifth in a row against Stoke on the road 2-1. Eight straight matches between these two have hit 3 or more goals with five hitting 4 or more goals.

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I will go with the defending champions in this opener. The Lakers were able to make some big moves in free agency after winning the title. I think that this team is even stronger this season. The Clippers have a new coach. They have had a shortened offseason to get used to the new coach and I think they will struggle early in the season. The Lakers proved that they were the better team than the Clippers last season and I think that they are ready to do it again this year. The Lakers won the last two meetings in this series and they have won six of the last nine meetings between these two teams. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both healthy and playing for the Lakers so this team will be at its best. I had this number at 5.5 and I think that there is strong value here. Look for the Lakers to get a statement win in the first game of their title defense.

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This is a great spot to take an over that is somewhat of a big number. This is a game that many. many people have had their eyes on as it welcomes back Steph Curry, and is the coming out party for Kyrie and KD as teammates. The Nets will be able to defend the basketball with solid wing defenders in Dinwiddie and Lavert, but Golden State has guys that can just score the basketball. The Warriors missing Draymond Green will hurt when it comes to winning or losing this game, but it will hurt even more on the defensive end of the floor. Now, we know that Durant and Kyrie haven't had a ton of game action over the course of the last year, but these two men are two of the best scorers in the league and they won't miss a beat. Curry is similar to Durant and Kyrie in that he just gives the Warriors an offensive weapon that just cannot be stopped. Add to that Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. and the Warriors have plenty of options to score and spread the floor causing the Nets to play a lot of one-on-one defense all night long. Take the 'over' in this one as we are looking at a game where both teams score in the 120s.

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I just like the Heels a lot more than I like the Wolfpack in this one. And I will go with size and depth over experience and guard play. I don't know if D.J. Funderburk (COVID) and Cam Hayes (COVID) are going to be available to play tonight. They have both missed N.C. State's last two games. And that makes a world of difference in this play. Without Funderburk the Wolfpack have just one healthy body on the roster that's taller than 6-7. That's not going to work against the monsters that UNC has in the frontcourt. The Heels will pulverize N.C. State on the interior on both ends of the court and that should turn this one into a blowout. N.C. State has two real nice guards in Braxton Beverly and Devon Daniels. But that's not enough to counter the sheer numbers that the Heels can throw at them on the wings. UNC's guards don't have nearly the experience of N.C. State's backcourt. But the talent discrepancy isn't significant. Beyond that, the Wolfpack have played a bunch of cream puffs this year. Their best win came over UMass Lowell and they got run against the only real competition they've faced, losing by 11 at St. Louis. The Tar Heels have already beaten teams better than State, taking out Stanford and Kentucky, and I just see a mismatch when I look at these teams. Even if Funderburk and Hayes can play there's no telling how effective they will be. I'll go with UNC.

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You have two teams at the top of the La Liga table moving in different directions. Real Sociedad sit in third place on 26 points, three points back of Tuesday's visitors, but having played three more matches. They are winless in their last eight matches, having drawn six in a row before losing their last two. Real Sociedad come off back to back 2-1 losses on the road including a defeat at 15th place Levante. At home, Real Sociedad have drawn three in a row. The host have six of their top 18 players injured and three others doubtful including starting keeper Moya, Adnan Januzaj, and David Silva. For Atletico, they are riding a two-match winning streak with a 3-0 win at Cardassar in the Copa del Rey and a 3-1 home win over Elche on the weekend. Aside from their 2-0 loss at second place Real Madrid, the visitors have just one loss in their last 14-matches. Away from home they are 3-1-1 in their last five with three clean sheets. These two drew their last meeting 1-1 at Atletico, while they have split the last two at Real Sociedad.

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New Mexico is obviously easing into this season. They've had some coronavirus issues delay the start to their season. But these guys have only played one game against D-I competition this year. Their two games last week were against D-II pushovers so it is safe to say these guys have some things to figure out. The Lobos lost their top four scorers and rebounders from last year's disappointing team. They are now relying on a lot of untested journeymen and mediocre role players to try to save Paul Weir's job this season. I don't see it happening at all. Boise State is a team that can turn out people's lights. I am hoping they get Marcus Shaver back for this game. But even if they don't I think they have enough firepower in their backcourt to totally control this game. Boise State could actually be adding pieces in Devonaire Doutrive and Donovan Ivory, two transfers that were just declared eligible. Honestly, I don't even want them to play. Because I've seen enough with the core that Boise State has now to know that they can blow this one open.

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By sheer allotment of sports games each week, I have zero doubt Vegas takes proper amount of time to find out just how exponentially better certain mid-major NCAAB teams are to one another when two teams like this face each other. And to take it one step further, can they exactly weigh up how COVID has directly affected the flow of respective teams' schedules? Point and case this match-up. We've done a stellar job at identifying a stacked deck against certain teams where cancellations have created an uneven playing field. Our 7-U win last Thursday with Saint Louis was the standard for exactly that - overwhelming an N.C. State team who forced themselves to play a last-minute game and travelled with just nine players for a live game.

This Missouri State team had its first five games cancelled. The Bears only just played their first game of the year this past week against Division II William Jewell, in addition to a walkover contest against Northwestern State over the weekend.

Little Rock enters this season off a 21-win 2019-20, and the Trojans were ranked in the unofficial Mid-Major Top 25. Talent wise, they are closer to the Top 15. Nine of their top eleven players are back, most notably Markquis Nowell, who is not just the best player on the floor tonight but also one of the better non-power conference guards.

Missouri State was a 16-17 team a season ago, and without three of its top four scorers. At best they are a mediocre team playing in a Missouri Valley league that has completely fallen off the College Hoops radar the last half decade.

Complimenting the aforementioned Nowell, this Little Rock team has production from forwards Nicola Maric (18 ppg and 7 rpg) and Ruot Monyyong (10 ppg and 10 rpg), as well as two reliable backcourt mates in Ben Coupet, Jr. and Marko Lukic.

The Trojans are a veteran and talented group that know how to play together, and they have expectations to be an NCAA Tournament team this season. These two teams are nowhere near each other on the College Basketball spectrum, and I wouldn't blink at a double digit Sun Belt winner. Regardless of margin, Little Rock nabs another win in the non-conference before beginning league play this weekend.

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Make no mistake, Butler has faced a more demanding schedule and has lost to Villanova and Indiana. Southern Illinois' best victory was over an always good Murray State crew at home as a six-point underdog. The nickname of SIU is - Salukis - and for those that don't know, that is a dog. In this case, I believe a very live (under)dog. For the season, SIU is shooting 49.6% and is also accurate from distance at 43.6%, which is 5th in the country. Another factor that could keep them in this contest is they are 19th nationally in free throw percentage at 78.5%. The Butler defense is a liability to this point, allowing teams to make 49.7% and just horrible in permitting foes to connect on an atrocious 45.6% from three-point land. With the Bulldogs 8-19 ATS versus teams shooting 45% or better, with a defense allowing 42% or lower on defense, takes this dog with the numbers.

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As per your selection on Santa Clara, we believe they are set up well for this contest as they come into this one riding a two-match winning streak including a win against this very Vitoria team last time out in the Portuguese Cup. In that contest, they were heavy underdogs but still prevailed and now that the lines have been adjusted, and Santa Clara is at home, we believe they are the better side and the team in much better form. Vitoria is missing a bunch of key players and they enter this game on a two-match losing streak. Their last contest was against one of the top Portuguese teams in Benefica and they had a lead on them only for it to be blown. That was their Super Bowl of sorts and as such will suffer a let down here on the road. This is a great spot for Santa Clara and we believe they can get the win here for us.

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It seems interesting to type but are people sleeping on their Chiefs here? We don't care who starts for New Orleans...They can trot out Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, or Drew Brees. In the end the Chiefs win this game by more than a field goal. Yes, Kansas City has struggle to cover the spread over the course of their last half dozen games, but those lines weren't a field goal. The Chiefs are 5-3 ATS against teams not in their division thus far this season. This includes ATS loses in their last three games. If one looks at these eight games you would see solid road victories over the Ravens, Bills, Bucs and Dolphins (ATS loses over the latter two). The Chiefs know how to beat good teams and they will do just that this weekend. Kansas City had Tampa Bay on the ropes. The Chiefs were up 17 points with 12 minutes to play and gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns to win but not cover. If they had covered that (3.5 point line) you'd be looking at a team with some very, very impressive ATS road wins on the season. We all know how good Kansas City is, but their current ATS run is what has this line as low as it is and we are absolutely going to take advantage. The Saints are a very good team. There is no doubt about that, but... If you take a look at their wins this season you would see that they haven't beaten many good teams. They have beaten Tampa Bay twice, but they have loses to Green Bay, at the Raiders, and a Philly team that plays people tough. The combined record of the teams that New Orleans has beaten is 53-76. Now that is not impressive in the slightest. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, and while that is impressive, again take a closer look...They have covered games against Tampa (solid), San Francisco (injury riddled), Atlanta 2x (terrible), Denver (a wide receiver at QB). This is not a play where we are bashing the Saints. This is a play on how we see Kansas City being that much better. Even if we need some Mahomes magic at the end, the Chiefs cover this small line. At worst this is a 27-21 Chiefs victory. One last thing to think about with that predicted at worst scoreline...Kansas City has only scored less than 27 points three times this whole season (two of those games were against Divisional opponents, and the other was a 26-17 win at Buffalo). Lay the points in this one and enjoy a Chiefs win and cover.

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The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the worst teams in the NFL since losing starting quarterback Dak Prescott to a season ending injury. The Cowboys have went just 2-6 straight-up in those 8 games with the average margin of defeat being by 19 points per game. One of their wins came against Minnesota in a game the Cowboys scored the game winning touchdown with just over 1:30 left in the contest while also converting a 4th down and 6 to keep the drive alive. Their other win was came last game against the hapless Cincinnati Bengals by a 30-7 score but don't be fooled by that result. The Bengals were missing their starting quarterback in that game plus they fumbled on EACH of their first 3 possessions of the game leading to 17 Cowboys points. The Dallas offense failed to even gain 300 yards in the contest.

The San Francisco 49ers have had a disappointing 5-8 season so far in 2020 following a Super Bowl appearance last year. Don't be fooled by their record this is still a decent team. The Niners have been decimated with injuries this year and to make matters worse they have had to face the hardest schedule in the NFL (per Football Outsiders). In fact if the season were to end today the 49ers would have played 9 of their 13 games against teams against teams in the post-season including each one of their last six games. When San Francisco has faced off against non-playoff teams like this do in this one here against Dallas, they are 3-1 overall this year with an average win margin being by 24 points in those contests. The Niners lost 23-15 last week to Washington but they were the better of the two teams in that game as Washington scored two defensive touchdowns and San Francisco put up more than 150 yards of offense then Washington in the game. Many of the 49ers players were upset after the ugly loss and I expect them to bring their best effort to this one.

Take San Francisco minus the points.

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These are two of the bottom sides in the Premier League. Sheffield United are currently on the worse start in Premier League history, grabbing only one point from their first 13-matches. The visitors have now lost eight in a row, but there are some positives here. Sheffield United took the lead on Manchester United on Thursday, a lead they did not have for long, but a lead none the less, even if the goal was from a Manchester United mistake and they grabbed a late goal to pull the score line to a 3-2 loss. The visitors have been transformed with the inclusion of David McGoldrick and we feel like the Blades will find the luck on Sunday for this match. They face a Brighton side that is sitting in 16th place on 11 points, but are winless in their last four. They played out a scoreless draw at Fulham mid-week after suffering an ugly 3-0 loss at Leicester last weekend. Unlike the visitors, Brighton do have two wins on the season, at Newcastle and at Aston Villa, they have only managed three draws in their six home matches. These two met for the first time last season in 13 years, with Sheffield United winning at Brighton 1-0, before drawing 1-1 at home. Sheffield United are 3-0-1 at Brighton all time.

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Let's take a bit of a step-out today and roll with Cincinnati. We like that Cincinnati comes off a loss in their first conference game to South Florida. It's a game honestly that Cincinnati should have never lost and they did which has to frustrate them and it is hard to imagine that a team that already lost their first conference game won't get up to face Georgia here. Cincinnati did beat a top 70 team in Furman this year to their credit and Georgia has not beat a top 200 team all year long so far. Cincinnati hung tight against Tennessee to their credit too who is an elite team and they were up by 4 points heading into the last half of that game and then fell short. Cincinnati has an elite defense, have plenty of upperclassmen and though Georgia is undefeated and their program is definitely on the rise with Tom Crean, I think the desperation with Cincinnati is obvious off a loss and frankly, they are the better team here. Georgia is outside the top 280 in 3 point shooting and outside the top 180 in turnovers with lesser competition whereas Cincinnati is a top 50 defense and with 4 upperclassmen I think Cincinnati is in the right spot here. Let's roll with Cincy today.

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This line hit the board with Arizona -1.5 and was immediately bet the other way. That's because Stanford is the better team here and they are going to prove it tonight. Stanford is a deep, experienced team that has a nice blend of talent and potential. I don't think that they have played their best game yet and I think that this is a great spot for them. Arizona has played five games against weak sisters, all at home. They really struggled with UTEP their last time out and needed to come from behind in the final few minutes to beat Eastern Washington. Arizona is a weak outside shooting team and this group also has little to no chemistry. This is basically a completely new team after losing eight of their top nine guys from last year. And without a regular preseason to coalesce this group is still learning to play together. Stanford, on the other hand, has four starters and the core of last year's team back together. Finally, Stanford has lost to Arizona 20 straight times. Twenty. Think about that. They haven't beaten the Wildcats since January of 2009. That's insane. Stanford finally brings the better roster to this contest, though, and they should make up for a decade of futility with a win here.

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Wisconsin has a terrible offense and should not be giving this many points against anyone in the Big Ten. They have a quarterback that lacks confidence, and they are playing a team that has won 3 of their last 4 games. Wisconsin may get some playmakers back for this game (wide receivers are doubtful), but I just cannot overlook the fact that they have scored 20 combined points in their last 3 games.

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I follow the Big Sky Conference closely and have done very well thru the years betting on it. These two teams brought in a ton of D-1 transfer talent this off-season. Portland State head coach Barret Peery took over their program back in 2017-2018 and his teams play have played at a fast paced style of play. In each season he's been with Portland State they have ranked higer in conference play on the offensive end then they have on the defensive side of the basketball. We have seen the added offensive talent the Vikings have this year in their first three games as each game the leading Portland State scorer has been a transfer who didn't play for them last season.

On the Weber State side of things they have also added some big time transfer talent led by Isiah Brown as the 6 foot 2 shooting guard has been sensational early on this year averaging 24 points per game overall. These two head coaches have faced off 7 times against each other and every one of those games had a combined point total of at least 151 points or more and the average point total has been 167 points including last season which averaged 170 points in their two head to head encounters.

Play 'over' the total in this one.

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