Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 5. (Read 12690 times)

I love the Nuggets as short road favorites in this spot. The Nuggets are rolling right now as they are 4-0 without Murray. Many thought we would see a drop with the Nuggets when Murray was announced out for the season but this team has risen up together. Since acquiring Gordon the Nuggets are 10-2 SU who adds a ton of depth offensively and defensively. Gordon will go back home today to the Bay area so I expect him to be the top of his game today. Lets not forget the Nuggets just lost to the Warriors April 12 116-107 so they have some revenge here today as well. The Warriors return home off an extended road trip which is a spot they typically do not do well in as they are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Lets also not forget it was that game against the Warriors that the Nuggets lost but also lost Murray for the year due to injury. Curry broke out for 53 points in that game, so I expect Denver to focus on shutting him down tonight. Joker leads the NBA in double doubles and with Murray out he has emerged as a team leader and MVP candidate. The public is riding the dog and Steph tonight which makes this a great public fade. We like the Nuggets to stay hot and get it done today. Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
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As this your selection, I like the Rangers today as the home favorite. Rangers come off a loss last night to the Flyers and I expect a motivated team eager for a bounce back here today. With Hart out and Elliot having started in goal yesterday it looks like Lyon might get the start for the Flyers who is their third string goalie. So we have a big edge in goal. Rangers sit in 5th place 8 points behind the Bruins for the 4th and final playoff spot. If they have any chance of catching them a win here is crucial. The Rangers took 5 penalties yesterday which did not help their cause. I think they will be more focused and disciplined today. This is a Flyers team that does not fair well after a win. Take the Rangers at home to bounce back and get it done. Flyers are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Rangers are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
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As per this selection, Dominic Calvert-Lewin will likely return here for Everton. Gylfi Sigurdsson has been great lately, and this will allow Richarlison to play out wide where he is more comfortable. This will help Everton’s offensive attack immensely. Arsenal has already lost at Everton this year, and Everton has won nine games away from home. Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is still recovering from a case of malaria and will not play. The Toffees have wins at Liverpool, Tottenham, and Leicester this season. Their last three matches have resulted in draws as well. I think Everton hangs tough in this match.
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As per your selection, the Houston Astros were once 7-10 last year in the 2020 season. After that they won eight games in a row. This group is definitely not as talented this year after losing Springer, however they do have the ability to go on a run we feel. This is a team that scored 35 runs in the opening series of the season vs the A's, and granted that feels like a long time ago now, however they do have the ability to get hot. Christian Javier is a good pitcher. Last season in 10 starts and 54 innings of work he had a WHIP underneath 1.00, which is fantastic in the AL. His numbers in 8 innings so far this year are not far off from that. The kicker here, is how great he is at home. At Minute Maid Park, in 6 starts and 34 innings of career work, he has a 1.85 ERA and 0.80 WHIP!! Combine that with the fact the Astros have been playing terribly, and are 1-9 in their last 10 games, and this is their first home game after almost a week on the road, you have to think they have 100% motivation here. Alex Cobb is an average MLB pitcher, and he might have a good game, but he does have big let downs in certain spots throughout his 10 year career. However the Angels really aren't that much better than the Astros here as the run differential between both teams is only 3 runs on the year. Houston is favored here for a reason and it's a great public fade. I think the Astros show up on Thursday evening and get it done.
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I like the Leafs today as road favorites. I think this is a great buy low spot on the Leafs as they have lost 5 in a row and the public is riding the dog. The Leafs come off a series vs the Canucks who hadn't played in 24 days and were drastically short players their lineup. The Leafs had a 3-2 lead in their last game before allowing 4 unanswered goals to lose 6-3. The Leafs have got to be ticked. Not to mention they now face the Jets who are only 4 points behind the Leafs for first in the division. This is a crucial back to back set here between these two teams. The Jets beat the Leafs 5-2 last time out so the Leafs have extra motivation. The Leafs have been great on the road as they have just 6 regulation losses on the season on the road. The Leafs are expecting a boost here today getting Nick Foligno in their lineup since acquiring him at the deadline. This is a veteran and was the captain of the Blue Jackets so he brings alot of leadership experience that this Leafs team lacks. He is the type of player that can set the tone and get this Leafs team back on track. Hellebyuck has struggled against the Leafs this season. Put it all together this is gut check time for the Leafs and they need to right the ship. A win here today against the 2nd place Jets will go along way in getting their confidence back. Jets have had a bit of a lay off and that could be a factor here today as they do not do well typically on a long layoff. Take the Leafs to get it done today. Maple Leafs are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Maple Leafs are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Jets are 4-11 in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
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The Suns are on a difficult stretch of road games but you cannot their depth and talent as they come off back to back wins over the Sixers and Bucks. The Suns sit just 1.5 games back of top spot for the West challenging the Jazz. I get that the Celtics come off a home loss to the Bulls as -6.5 favorites but they have a ton of key guys all questionable for tonight's game so depth could be an issue vs the Suns tonight. The Suns have been lights out on the road as they come in with the best road record in the league. Not to mention they get up for elite teams as they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. I think the Celtics likely struggle here tonight against Paul, Booker, and company so we will gladly take the better team here to continue their road success and grab another big win. This is a great public fade to boot as the public is on the dog in this one. Suns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the Suns. Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
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As per this selection, Ricardo Pereira should play in this game for Leicester, after lower leg cramping vs Southampton, however they will likely still be without James Justin, Harvey Barnes, and Wes Morgan. Justin and Barnes have 11 goals between them this campaign. West Brom have injury issues of their own with Robert Snodgrass and Kieran Gibbs sitting this one out as well. The Foxes do have a shot at the Champions League next season; however, they will need to perform well here the rest of the way, which starts with their defense. Two of Leicester’s last 3 matches have gone under the total. Seven of West Brom’s last 10 have gone under 2.5 goals. Take the under on the pitch Thursday.
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As per your selection on Edmonton, we have no problem going back to the well with them here after they cashed for us two days ago. The Habs are in a bit of a free-fall mode right now with a bunch of injuries including Carey Price being sidelined for at least a week with a concussion. The Habs are playing some poor hockey and aren't scoring many goals. Edmonton continues to play good hockey and with McDavid and Draisaitl going, they are capable of putting up a five-spot on any given night. We expect the Oilers to dominate this game and earn another two points on home ice.
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As per my selection, Zach Davies has been a disaster this year. I could dive into the numbers, but let's just say he's given up 13 earned runs in 11 innings. Here is the other thing - he's only given up one home run. That sounds like a good thing but it's actually a bad thing, because if he's giving up that many runs with only one home run given up, that means he is getting singled, doubled, tripled and walked to death. Basically hitters 1-8 are having their way with him and who knows, maybe the opposing pitchers are even getting a hit here and there. David Peterson has not had the greatest start either this year, but definitely not as bad as Davies, and also the Cubs don't hit consistently. They are last in MLB in batting average and while they hit a lot of home runs, their RBI total is near the bottom of the league, which basically means all the home runs they hit are solo shots. Look for the Mets to get it done here.
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As per my selection, I like the Cavs at home here today. Sometimes, I like those ugly ducklings and I think this is the right spot for the Cavs tonight. The Bulls have got to be feeling good today as they come off outright win over the Celtics in Boston as a +6.5 dog. I think they have a let down here. We were on the Bulls for that game and we knew they would get up to face the Celtics an elite team that was on a nice winning streak. These two teams just met on April 17 with the Bulls winning 106-96. The Cavs are chasing the Bulls for that 10th playoff spot and a win here will go a long way to achieving that goal while avenging the recent loss to the Bulls. The Cavs are running out of time and this stretch of games coming up is important as they face all the teams they are chasing in that 8-12 seed in the standings. I think the Cavs will get up for this game and play with some pride and motivation. The public sees the Bulls big win over the Celtics vs how the Cavs have been playing, hence the public is all over the Bulls which makes for a great public fade to boot. Take the Cavs at home to hang tough and possibly win outright.
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As per your selection on the OVER in this contest, you have to believe that Spurs will somewhat be relieved that Mourinho has been sacked and that the defensive-minded game plans will be put on the shelf for the rest of the season. Spurs currently sit five points back of fourth and you have to believe they are going to go for the win in every single game left this year and it starts against a Southampton side that's struggled badly over the last 10 games as they've conceded 18 goals in that time frame. Spurs defensively have been no better, but the offense has scored in nine of 10 games and have hit 2+ goals in 6 of those 10. Look for an open affair with Spurs likely winning big in this contest thus pushing the game OVER the total.
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I like the Hurricanes in this spot as small dogs coming off an OT loss last night. Look, both these teams are evenly matched. This is the last game of the mini series and the last time these two teams will face off in the regular season. The Hurricanes coming off a loss would love nothing more than to defeat the defending champs in the final game of the season series. The Hurricanes fought back from a early 2-0 lead only to fall short in OT. This is a well balanced team that fights and competes each night. If you look at recent play between these two teams the Hurricanes are 5-1-2 their last 8 while the Lightning are 4-4. The Lightning are still missing some star power on offense with Stamkos and Kucherov both out and I think that will hurt them in this back to back. In the seven games this year the Lightning are averaging just 2.28 goals per game vs the Hurricanes. If McElhinney happens to go today that will work to the Hurricanes advantage as the Lightning have struggled to get wins out of their back up goalies. Meanwhile the Hurricanes have a solid 1-2 punch in goal. I think this is the right spot here for the Hurricanes who are a deep team to grab a big bounce back win and always fair well on 0 days rest. Hurricanes are 23-8 in their last 31 games playing on 0 days rest. Hurricanes are 6-0 in their last 6 games following OT on the previous day.
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Today, I really like the Brewers as we will gladly back Corbin Burnes in almost any situation in MLB at or around even money. Especially against a pitcher like Chris Paddack that has not lived up to the hype so far this year. Paddack has a 1.46 WHIP already, and that is facing some sub-par offenses in the Rangers, D-Backs and Pirates. Granted, the Brewers are not exactly the 1927 Yankees, however you might not need that many runs with a stud like Corbin Burnes on the mound. We feel Burnes is a top 5 pitcher in baseball, and a future Cy Young Award Winner. He has a 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP in 18 innings pitched. Granted that is a small sample size, however we feel Milwaukee gets to Paddack for at least a couple runs early. Maybe even bring in a few in the later innings off the Padres bullpen. The early public action is backing the Padres which makes us love this situation even more. Possibly the public thinks San Diego will bounce back after getting dominated by Woodruff last night? No no no...Burnes is even better than Woodruff, and we actually love Woodruff too. In fact, we love the whole Brewers starting rotation, which is why we have been on them so much this year. Heck, if they had a top 10 offense in baseball they would probably be in contention with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL. We would love the under here if it weren't for Paddack on the mound, however, give us Burnes at even money in 90% of MLB situations in the year 2021 and we are riding him no matter what.
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Today, I like Hornets as road dogs to hang tough. Look I get that the Knicks come in blazing hot, and the public has taken notice as we see over 72% of the public on the Knicks. Recency bias makes them the popular play. Yet the line opened -6 and has moved to -5.5 so we are seeing some money come in on the Hornets and I agree with the line move. I think that the Knicks could have a let down here. Like the Bulls yesterday there are not a ton of reasons to like the Hornets given their injury situation but Terry Rozier among others have really stepped up their game and carrying the load. The Hornets received some good news yesterday that Ball is able to start practicing so his return is near and help is on the way. The Hornets sit in 8th spot just 1 game back of the Heat and 2 games back of the Knicks for 6th spot. The Knicks are dealing with some injuries of their own with Robinson, Burks, and Henson all out. That puts extra pressure on Randle, Barrett, and company. With a low total here and getting almost 6 points, I expect this to be a closer game then most think. We will take the Hornets on the road here to give a big effort and cover the number. Hornets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
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As per my selection on Verona, I believe this is a great spot for them to come out with a good performance and collect three points in their chase to finish in the top half of the table. Verona has had a poor run of results of late, but they haven't been as bad as Fiorentina who have given up three goals in three of their last four games. Furthermore, Fiorentina has lost eight of their last nine league away matches and have scored just one time after halftime in their last five road games. I expect Verona to come out with a sense of purpose and urgency in this contest and take it to a Fiorentina team that is shaky on defense.
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Today, I look to hit 12 in a row. We like the Predators at home in this spot. The Preds come off back to back losses to the Hurricanes so they will be chomping at the bit to get a big win at home. These two teams will face off for 3 games in a row and this could be a turning point for either team in the standings. The Preds sit in 4th and final playoff spot with the Hawks just 2 points behind them. Not to mention Dallas with 3 games in hand are just 3 points behind them as well. After their big 7 goal outburst vs the Lightning the Preds managed just 2 goals in 2 games vs the Hurricanes. That will have to change here tonight and I expect it will. The Preds have owned the Hawks this year winning all 5 games and coming off back to back losses, I expect they will have all the motivation to get things right tonight. Prior to this two game slide the Preds had won 13 out of 16 games. We have the edge in goal here tonight and the Preds are the deeper team. Take the Predators at home as the Hawks have struggled on the road and putting together win streaks. Blackhawks are 0-5 in their last 5 road games. Blackhawks are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win. Predators are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.                    ​

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I like the Cardinals today. Jack Flaherty is a great pitcher. He didn't have the best 2020, but he was great in his last full season in 2019, coming in 4th place in the Cy Young voting, and actually got 2% of the MVP vote. The Cardinals have not had the greatest start, however neither have the Nats. The Nats have really struggled offensively. Very interesting stat on Washington - They are in 2nd place in all MLB in team batting average, however 29th place (second to last) in runs scored! This basically means they leave runners on base left and right, and cannot hit in the clutch. Joe Ross toes the rubber for Washington, and he has had a great start this year. In fact he has yet to give up an earned run in 11 innings, and his WHIP is 0.82. However, he does not by any means have the same track record Flaherty does. In fact, we expect to see the same old Joe Ross who has career numbers such as a 4.16 ERA and 1.3 WHIP. Those aren't terrible numbers, but they aren't indicative of what his numbers are currently. Ross has to regress here eventually, why not here vs a Cardinals team that can light anyone up on any given night. Take the Redbirds.                    ​

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Today, I like the Bulls as the road dog to hang tough. I get its scary going against the surging Celtics especially given how the Bulls have played as of late. That said I think the Bulls are catching the Celtics at the right time. The Celtics come off a very successful western road trip that saw them beat the Nuggets, Blazers, Lakers, and then Warriors at home first game back. How do they get up for the Bulls? Not to mention the Celtics have the Suns and then Nets on deck. The Bulls lost to the Celtics Jan 25 119-103 so they have some revenge. The Bulls due to their recent play have now fallen into a log jam for that final play in spot and with the Raptors winning yesterday and the Wizards heating up, they need to put a string of good games together. They went out at the deadline and got Vucevic for a reason as they want to make the playoffs. I get Lavine is out today but the Bulls need to find a way to rally together and I think they get up here for the Celtics. The Celtics have a bunch of their players listed as questionable which is not surprising given who they have on deck. The Bulls have been great as road dogs all year and we like them here as well. Bulls are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog. Bulls are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games.                    ​

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As per our selection on Liverpool, this game means far more to them than it does to Leeds. Liverpool had talked about downplaying the race for a Champions League spot, but with three league wins in a row, they are just three points back of fourth and four points back of third, with seven games to play. That's extremely doable for a team with the talent of Liverpool and despite going out of the UCL midweek to Real Madrid, we expect full focus from the Reds here today. As for Leeds, yes they've won three straight games as well and shocked Man City in their last game, but that was their Super Bowl. They went down to 10 men and still found a way to win. The gas tank is going to be running on empty in this one, especially with the way Leeds play every single game. Leeds defensively isn't very good either and with Liverpool coming off a 0-0 draw, we expect them to take their chances better and bag at least two here tonight. Take Liverpool.                    ​

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Pena is better than what his record would indicate having lost some split decisions of late but now is fighting someone that is not very explosive. He has a big height advantage in this bout and should be able to score a decision against Munoz if no stoppage occurs. We will lay the price with the taller and better fighter as the first fight of the main event gets underway on Saturday night.                    ​

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