Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 6. (Read 12605 times)

Today, we roll with the Warriors on the road to hang tough. I get both teams come in hot in this game. The Warriors have been on a roll with Curry looking like his MVP self during their recent winning streak averaging 41.5 points per game. The Celtics have won 4 in a row vs the Warriors but only once at home. The Warriors have revenge from a Feb 2 loss to the Celtics and having lost 4 in a row, I think Curry and the Warriors get up here to face the Celtics at the Garden. The Celtics come off some impressive wins on the road vs Portland, Denver, and Lakers. Now they return home after a tough road trip and I think they have a let down here. This is a Celtics team that has not been great on their home floor as they are just 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 11 games. Warriors have revenge and this is a great public fade to boot. Take the Warriors to hang tough and keep this one close.                     ​

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The Cardinals just can't find their offense, while Phillies are hitting on all cylinders. STL's Kim is an excellent pitcher, but he's been known to lose confidence and get knocked out early. The Philly bats are just the thing that could make that happen.                     ​

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The two best teams in the CAA are finally set to do battle Saturday in Harrisonburg, VA. Both teams have had the last two weeks off and both teams are undefeated in 2021. I just do not see a blowout in this game since it means more to Richmond with regards to making the FCS Playoffs. Both teams are strong on offense scoring over 30 points per game and I just do not believe the Dukes will be able to completely shutdown Joe Mancuso and company. This is the toughest opponent James Madison will have played in 2021 and while I see them winning, I expect a battle for 60 minutes. Grab the points in this battle of unbeaten teams..                      ​

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As per this selection, we like the Knicks on the road here in this spot. I don't think oddsmakers are giving this Knicks team enough credit. This is a team that is 18-11 ATS on the road this season and 22-8-1 ATS their last 31 games. Knicks have been great in this underdog role that they have been in most of the season. Who would have thought the Knicks would be in 6th place just 1 game back of the Celtics and Hawks. This is a team that has won 4 straight and almost beat Boston and Brooklyn. They have the #1 ranked defense allowing just 104.3 points per game, which will be trouble for an inconsistent Mavs offense. Not to mention they rank #5 in rebounding. Randall has been a beast this year and really emerged as a star for the Knicks, as he comes off a 32 point performance. Then you have Alec Burks that came off the bench to score 21 points which gives them some added scoring punch. Knicks have a very well rounded team backed by an #1 defense. The Mavericks come off a last second buzzer beater by Doncic to finally get a win, but I think they could have a let down here, as it took two missed free throws from Allen on the Grizzlies to help them be in position to get a win. The Knicks have revenge from an April 2 loss to the Mavs that saw them lose 99-86 at home. Knicks with revenge and the last game of the road trip, I like them to hang tough here. Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.                      ​

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As per this selection, we love the Canadiens in this spot to do well at home. Simply put the Canadiens did not show up last game, down early, and never fought back. They came out flat. I expect a different Canadiens team here in the second game of this mini series. Calgary has won the last 4 games against the Canadiens this year, being outscored 11-3, so something has got to give for the Canadiens as they sit in 4th spot in the division occupying the last playoff spot. With Calgary's win the other night they pulled within 4 points of the Canadiens. Calgary were sellers at the deadline trading some players, as they were not really in the playoff mix. Montreal on the flip side were buyers at the deadline and are in desperate need of a win. You look at these lineups top to bottom and Montreal is the better team here with better analytics. I think Calgary has been playing over their heads as of late beating Toronto and Montreal on back to back nights. I expect a motivated Montreal team here to grab a big win in the standings and for their team confidence. Flames are 4-13 in their last 17 games as an underdog. Canadiens are 23-4 in their last 27 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals.                      ​

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As per your selection on the over 2.5 goals in this game, we see both teams going for the win here as they can ill-afford to fall behind any further in the race for a European spot. Everton have been really poor of late, scoring just 2 goals in their last five games, but they've given up at least two goals in three of those games. As for Tottenham, they've seen an abundance of goals scored in their last five games, as they've gone over the 2.5 total in four of those games, giving up three goals twice and scoring two goals twice. Not to mention, Tottenham have scored 3+ goals and scored in both halves in three of their last four visits to Goodison Park. This game should be a very wide-open affair and with the talent level both teams possess going forward in attack, the chances will be converted into goals, that I'm sure of.                      ​

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As per this selection, I like the Braves as they come into Wrigley swinging hot bats. They have scored 20 runs in their last three games. They also come into this game at 5-8, and while it is early in the season, they know their division is much improved from last year, and winning the NL East will not be easy. The Cubs on the other hand, who have really struggled offensively, are last in MLB with a .163 batting average. Drew Smyly had a great start vs the Nats going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs. He did struggle vs the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball, however the Phillies are in much better offensive form than the Cubs currently. Zach Davies has given up 9 runs in seven innings pitched this year already. Here's a mind-blowing stat for you; the Braves have played only one more game than the Cubs this season, however Atlanta has scored 59 runs, and the Cubs have scored 32. Not only that, but the price is reasonable, and the public is split. I will back the Braves.                      ​

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The Lakers are a bit of “fool’s gold” here as they have won four of seven but those wins were over Charlotte, Toronto, Sacramento and Brooklyn. Only one real quality win among those teams, and Brooklyn is a “work in progress” right now as this team is tinkering with a lot trying to have chemistry and stability once the playoffs start next month. And even the Lakers called that game the best win of the season. The Celtics have won six of seven. They DO have some quality wins there as they won in Portland and Denver in their last two. They also beat the Knicks, who are playing well now. This team is pretty healthy and has shrugged of their slow start. And this team has been one of the safest bets in the NBA the last few years as they normally have a great ATS mark. We think they hold the Lakers to a real low point total tonight.                      ​

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I like the Bruins here in this spot at home. Oddsmakers have made the Bruins a favorite here despite the Islanders being the better overall team in the standings and based on their play as of late. Naturally the public is all over the dog here but that's ok, we think the Bruins are favored here for a reason. We have a few things going on here. First off the Islanders are 5-0 vs the Bruins this season, so the Bruins come in with some revenge and something to prove. The Bruins sit in the 4th playoff spot in the division with the Rangers just 4 points behind. They made a huge push at the trade deadline trading for Taylor Hall to boost their offense and add secondary scoring. With one game under his belt, I look for him to start being more of a factor. The Bruins will get all star goalie Tukka Rask back in goal today which will be a big boost as they were having to start their 3rd and 4th string goalies the past few weeks. The Islanders are a much different team on the road vs at home as they are 9-9-2 on the road vs 18-2-1-1 at home. I think this is a great spot for the Bruins to grab a huge win vs the Islanders. Take the Bruins. Islanders are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.                      ​

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As per your selection on Roma to come away with at least a draw, they are in a great position to advance, having won 2-1 on the road in Holland in the first leg. They are on a run of five straight wins in Europa League knockout fixtures and have outscored the opponent 12-3 in that span. Furthermore, Roma has lost just one of their last 20 home matches in Europe, and 12 of those games came with a clean sheet. As for Ajax, they are not very good against the Italian sides as they've won just three of their last 21 European ties against teams from Italy. Look for Roma to soak up all the pressure and hit Ajax on the counter-attack with Ajax pushing too many men forward in search of a 2+ goal win.                       ​

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We are getting great value of Cleveland here today. Civale has pitched solid this season with an ERA of 2.45 and WHIP of 0.55 allowing just 5 hits over 14.2 innings of work. I expect a stay another solid start from Civale here Thursday afternoon as he has also had 12 strikeouts and just 3 walks over 14.2 innings this season. Lynn has allowed 11 hits over 13.2 innings this season and I do expect him to struggle against Cleveland here Thursday. Play Cleveland Moneyline.                       ​

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Let with the Nuggets at home today.  At first glance the first reaction would be to fade Denver now with the huge loss of Murray.  For those who have followed us, you know we like this angle.  When a star player is out we like to ride that team their first game as the team rallies together to make up for the loss.  That is what we have here as we still have a deep Nuggets team.  The Nuggets come off back to back losses and have now fallen into 4th place in the West so we like them to bounce back here.  The Miami Heat come into this game on a back to back, coming off a tough game against the Suns.  I get that the Heat have revenge and come off a loss but this is a team that has shown no bounce back capability this season as they are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  This is also a Heat team that does not typically fair well against elite teams going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  I think Jokic being the MVP candidate that he is, will step up here big for his team and the troops rally together today pulling off a big win.                        ​

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Today, I'll with the Jets as they come off a 4-2 loss to the Senators.  They jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the first 9 minutes and quit playing after that, while making dumb mistakes.  The Jets have only lost back to back games 3 times this season which is impressive.  They are a great bounce back team typically as we have seen this season.  The Jets are in 2nd place in the division just 7 points from the first place Leafs and sit just 1 point ahead of the Oilers who are in 3rd place.  A win here is huge for the Jets in the standings as it can put them within 5 points of the Leafs before their big series coming up.  I get that the Jets have the Leafs on deck but they cannot afford to lose both games to the Senators at this stage of the season.  I expect a much more focused Jets team here today.  Take the Jets to get it done.  Jets are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.   Jets are 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.                

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Tyler Mahle has had a fantastic start this season. He has given up 2 earned runs in nine innings pitched in his two starts this year. Cincinnati's offense apparently also likes when he pitches, as the Reds have rallied for 15 runs combined in his two starts. Sometimes baseball works that way, certain pitchers get run support, and others (Jacob DeGrom and Corbin Burnes are good examples), just don't. The theory is that the offense feels it can relax and there is no sense of urgency when a stud pitcher is on the mound, therefore not many runs are scored in those games. For some reason though the Reds "go to bat" for Mahle, no pun intended. Johnny Cueto has had a surprisingly good start this year, posting good numbers. However this Reds team is #1 in the league in offense, and in a day game here, we think the ball will jump off the bats which definitely favors the Reds. Throw in the fact that this is the rubber match and Cincinnati knows they can make noise in the NL Central this year, and they will have the motivation to take the series. Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series. Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss.               

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We roll with the Over 3 Goals here between these two teams here as we suspect that Manchester City is going to be more than ticked off coming off a red card loss to Leeds which saw them lost 1-2 goals. It's been forever since this team lost and you would have to think this team will be angry after that loss and put up at least 2 goals or more in this contest. Heck, more than likely, they put up at least 3 goals themselves and then you have a Dortmund team who lost to this team not too long ago by a score of 1-2 and we like them as a decent dog here to at least drop a goal and we have this contest more to a tune of 3-1 final. We could go with the side here but rather we will roll with the total as we do think 4 goals are likely to be scored here and it is enough for us to take a chance on it.               

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Miami has won six of seven and covered five of them, but tonight looks like a tough assignment. Phoenix has won 12 of 14 but has struggled a bit as a favorite of seven or more points recently at 2-5 ATS. That won’t be the case tonight as a much smaller favorite. The Suns are 19-10 ATS as a home favorite and within that number is an 8-1 ATS mark when doling out six or fewer points. Phoenix didn’t come close to covering against Houston last night and is 15-3 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning by 11.1 PPG. Phoenix is 8-4 ATS with no rest and the Heat is 4-10 ATS versus foes who win 55% or more of their games.               

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I think we are getting tremendous value with Florida on the road here tonight. Florida is a hungry team having dropped 3 straight games, after winning 6 straight games in a row and they are coming off a 1-4 loss at Dallas. Florida is 8-3 in their last 11 trips to Dallas and I look for them to end their 3-game skid here tonight. Dallas is just 4-13 in their last 17 home games overall and just 10-23 in their last 33 games overall. Florida’s power-play has been solid on the road this season converting at 26% with the extra man and Dallas has averaged just 2.6 goals per game and 27 shots on goal per game over their last 5 games. Play Florida Moneyline.               

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Oakland goes with starter Jesus Luzardo in this one. Luzardo is one of the best young arms in MLB. At first glance it looks like the 23 year-old is struggling this year with an ERA above 6.00 but keep in mind his two starts came against two of the top offenses in the league (Houston and LA Dodgers).

Arizona starter Zac Gallen started the season off on the injured list and makes his 2021 regular season debut in this one. Gallen didn't look right to me in spring training as his velocity was way down. He's also someone that I feel is overvalued as his ERA-FIP differential ranks in the bottom 10% of baseball the last two years from pitchers with 100+ innings. Gallen hasn't pitched in a game in nearly a month and I think it's going to take some time for him to get back to peak form.                 

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As per this selection, we roll with the Under here as the first leg was a final of 3-2 in favor of Paris SG but it is hard to imagine that Bayern will give up 3 goals again this game. We like that the ML odds here favor Bayern which shows that this game is likely to have a strong defensive tinge to it and we think at the end of the day, this game is likely to go Under here. Bayern will have to make some adjustments and we think they likely will and we can see this contest end at a tune of 2-1 in favor of Bayern but more importantly, this game going Under.                 

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It's not often you see totals in the city by the bay at 8.5. There is a reason the total is set this high today. First of all, the Reds have the best offense in the league so far, hands down. Secondly, the fact that they got shut-out yesterday we feel works in their favor as well, as they will want to bounce back in a big way. They face Aaron Sanchez, who had a good first outing, going five innings vs a Padres team with no Fernando Tatis in the lineup, however, those are the only five innings he has thrown since 2019. We feel it's a matter of time before the rust sets in. Throw in the fact that the Giants have been swinging the bat well as of late also. They currently rank #4 in MLB in home runs. Both of these teams are 6-3 and are surprisingly better than advertised at the beginning of the year. Look for a wild one here on Monday night. Take the over.                 

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