Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 8. (Read 12605 times)

Today, I like the over here between the Oilers and Canadiens.  Look, these teams have met 4 times this season and all 4 games have gone under.  The Oilers have won just 1 of the 3 games and were shut out losing 4-0 March 30.  The Oilers are likely an active dog here with some revenge, especially since the fact they have managed to score just 4 goals in 4 games this season vs the Canadiens.  The Canadiens come off a loss to the Senators in what was likely a look ahead spot to facing an elite team like the Oilers so they will be motivated as well.  Price will likely get the nod here for the Canadiens who has allowed 4 goals or more in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Oilers have a high potent offense and I expect them to get their share today.  Oilers with revenge, shut out last time out against the Canadiens, and Canadiens off a loss, put it all together and we like the over today.  Over is 7-3-1 in Oilers last 11 games as an underdog.  Over is 4-1 in Canadiens last 5 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.                  

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We roll with the Mavericks at home here as they come in playing some of their most consistent basketball of the season.  These two teams played a back to back series in January when the Jazz were on fire and the Jazz took both those games with the last game being by 19 points.  Since then as of late the Jazz are still winning games but we have to look at who they have all played.  In their last 10 games the Jazz have won 9 out of 10, but every win with the exception of beating the Nets were against below .500 or sub .500 teams.  On the flip side you have a Mavericks team that has won 4 straight and in the last 10 games have beaten the Celtics on the road, Knicks on the road, Portland on the road, and beat the Clippers at home.  The Jazz come off a 46 point victory over the Magic so I would not be surprised here if they have a bit of a let down.  The Mavericks sit in 7th spot in the West Standings and have the Grizzlies and Spurs just 2.5 games back of them.  I think we will see a focused and motivated Mavericks team here, while the Jazz have not been great on the road this year.  Take the Mavericks to hang tough and possibly win outright.  Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.  Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.                

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Today, I'll roll with the Cardinals which are supposed to be contenders this year to win the National League, if they can somehow get past the Dodgers. They have to be ticked that they lost two games to their division rival Cincinnati, and started the year 1-2. The first two games they showed plenty of offensive firepower with 17 runs, before getting stymied yesterday only scoring one run. Ponce De Leon starts for the Redbirds, and he comes in off a Spring Training in which he had a 1.77 WHIP in 17 innings of work. Not to mention his ERA and walk rate continue to rise each year. The Marlins bats came to life in their last two games vs the Rays, scoring 16 runs. So what you have here is a hot Marlins hitting team, against a pitcher in decline. As well on the other side you have a Cardinals team who only scored one run yesterday, looking to bust out and sweep the Marlins. If the Cardinals want to be taken seriously they have to beat bottom feeder teams like Miami, when you have so much better competition on deck in the National League. Trevor Rogers will face St Louis and he did have a good Spring Training, however last season his numbers were not great at a 6.11 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. Look for both offenses to swing the bats well tomorrow. 

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Look if you are the Warriors you have to be ticked and embarrassed coming off a horrific 53 point loss against a Raptors team that is well below .500.  With or without Curry last game they should not be losing to a team like the Raptors by 53 points.  This is the last game of a 3 game road trip for the Warriors so I think they will be motivated to come out with a win before returning home.  The Warriors have some revenge here as well, losing to the Hawks recently March 26, 124-108.  Curry is expected to play today but whether he plays or not we still like the Warriors.  The Hawks return home off a 8 game road trip and come off a big win against the Pelicans as the Hawks were without 5 major players in their lineup.  They are still dealing with injuries today and I think likely have a let down against a highly motivated Warriors team.  Warriors off a terrible loss, they have revenge, and want to end the road trip with a win.  Put it all together and we like the Warriors.  Great public fade as well to boot as everyone remembers what they just saw with the Warriors losing by 53 points.   Hawks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. 

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This would have been a higher bet selection, but the total has dipped more than three points from the opening line. I still have the confidence to back this battle of LA, because the game still means something to those playing and with Denver and Portland at their heels, winning is paramount for both teams. The Lakers mindset is defense-first with LeBron and A.D. out and in their last five games, they are 5-0 UNDER, with the average total score just over 200 points. The Lakers are 16-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Clippers have scored under 100 points in three of their past five outings and are have held their last five foes to 101.2 PPG. I’ll bet the UNDER.   

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We roll with the Twins here as short road favorites. Look the Twins should be up 2-0 in this series. Alex Colome blew a 5-2 save opportunity, and the Brewers completed the comeback in the bottom of the 10th inning on Thursday. We are very high on Minnesota this year. We think they will do very well, and challenge the White Sox within the division. Michael Pineda definitely did not have a good Spring Training, however in regular season play, he's definitely been serviceable over the last two years. Adrian Hauser comes off a forgettable 2020 as well as a not so impressive Spring Training. In fact, he is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two games vs the Twins. Keep in mind the Brewers only had one hit yesterday. Granted Jose Berrios's six innings of no hit pitching had a lot to do with that, but the Brewers bats have been sporadic over the first two games. We know Josh Donaldson is out, but that's ok. We will take the better pitcher with the better team trying to win the rubber match.   

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We like the Kings here in this spot as home dogs to hang tough.  Both teams come in on a back to back here, only difference is the Kings come off a brutal loss to the Lakers, while the Bucks are off a big win against the Blazers.  The Kings come off a horrible shooting game last night vs the Lakers which saw Fox go 5-20 and Hield go 3-11 from the field.  Add in the fact they both went a combined 1-11 from 3pt land.  I expect that to change here today as both these guys have been a dominant force for the Kings this year on offense.  Prior to yesterday's loss the Kings had won 5 home games in a row and have been on a roll since the All Star break getting them into playoff contention.  Since the break they have been one of the league's best offenses and are 7-3 their last 10 games. Add in the fact the Kings have revenge from a loss to these Bucks earlier in the year that saw Gianni go off for 38 points and 48.9% shooting.  On the flip side the Bucks are playing their 4th road game in 6 days and come off blowing out the Blazers last night with Gianni going off for 47 points.  I think we could see the Bucks have a bit of a let down here as they have not been great on the road recently going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.  The Bucks also have a tendency to play down against lessor teams as they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  I expect Fox, Hield, and company to have a much better game here and they will get up to face the Bucks especially coming off a bad loss against a depleted Lakers team.  No surprise everyone is on the Bucks here which makes this a great pubic fade to boot.  Take the Kings to keep this one close at home.    

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Just cannot justify laying this many points in a Final Four game. Gonzaga is loaded on offense, but USC had numerous chances to cover tonight’s posted number in the Elite 8 and UCLA plays at a much slower pace. Gonzaga may jump out early, but UCLA has come back in numerous tournament games this year. UCLA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. The Bruins find a way to keep this deficit around 8-10 points and we collect with the underdog.

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Baylor cleared a major hurdle by getting to the Final Four and expect them to play a more relaxed game against Houston. The Cougars are an outstanding defensive team, but I just do not believe that they will be able to match Baylor’s high-powered offense to keep the deficit in single digits. Baylor is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games when they are the favorite. Houston got all that they could handle from Rutgers in the round of 32 and I see do not believe they can keep up in scoring with the Bears.

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Is it scary to take the Reds vs the Big Bad Cardinals - Possibly. The Cardinals put a beatdown on the Reds on Thursday and showed that they will definitely be a contender this year in the NL. However, the public saw that and is jumping all over the Cardinals for game two of the series, yet the line hasn't budged. In fact, at some sportsbooks the line has gone to Reds -120. Why when everyone and their mother are taking one side, would the line stay put or move the other direction? Classic public overreaction. The Reds are a good team. They are not a better team than the Cardinals. But they are a good team. We don't need them to be better than St Louis all year, just tomorrow. Mahle toes the rubber for Cincinnati tomorrow, and comes off an impressive 3.59 ERA performance last year (keep in mind that is with the NL having the DH). Wainwright has struggled vs the Reds historically with a 5.12 ERA and Votto in particular (.333 with 4 homers in 57 at bats). The Reds did score 6 runs on Thursday so their offense did swing the bat well, and look for St Louis to have a let down offensively vs Mahle as we think the Reds get it done today.

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Happy Opening Day for the KBO! I'm looking to have a fantastic season! Today, I'm on the Kiwoom Heroes at home. Eric Jokisch has been a terrific pitcher for Kiwoom the last two seasons. He led the KBO with a 2.14 ERA to go with a 1.06 WHIP and 115 strikeouts over 159.2 innings last season. Kiwoom went 80-63 last year, and look to take the next step as they have never won a championship. Their offense does have some pop as well with the likes of Jung and Park, and they are just the better team in general. Let's roll with Kiwoom today as they likely get it done.

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Six of the last seven Pelicans games have gone under the posted total (in regulation). Both teams here are coming in on back-to-backs and both teams played to overtime last night. We don’t see these teams having much pop in their step and we expect a slogging, sloppy game here. New Orleans was missing their three big guns last night and we don’t yet know who will be playing tonight. But even if this line moves when the status of those players is revealed, we think the total is way too high so don’t be scared off by line movement. The Pelicans haven’t been very good on offense lately and they will at least be missing some major firepower from their lineup. The Hawks have been a lot better recently defensively than what we saw early in the season, and we think both teams here could wind up close to the century mark. Five of the last seven meetings have gone under the posted number.

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Today, I will roll with the Knicks at home to hang tough and bounce back after a tough loss to the T-Wolves.  The Knicks come off back to back losses and have to be ticked after blowing an 18 point lead in their last game against the T-Wolves only to lose 102-101.  They were outscored 17-7 in the last 6 minutes while giving up 3 turnovers.  Thibodeau said you can't let your card down against any team and that's exactly what they did against one of the worst teams.  This is a well coached Thibodeau team that plays elite defense and allows just 104.5 points per game.  The Knicks are a top 10 defensive team when it comes to rebounds averaging 74% in securing rebounds and rank in the top 5 in fast break points.  This is a Knicks team that beat the Bucks outright as a dog and frankly have been excellent in the underdog roll this year.  In the underdog roll this year they have lost by just an average of 3.1 points, so even in their losses we know they will compete.  The Mavericks come off back to back wins and just swept the season series against the Celtics, so they could have a bit of a let down here.  At the end of the day I think the Knicks have the motivation to compete here sitting in 5th place in a jam packed East standings as they look to secure a playoff spot.  Hence we like the Knicks to hang tough at home here covering the number.  Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

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Today we roll with the Jets at home here to bounce back with some revenge.  I think we are getting good value on a Jets team at home off a loss.  They are just 3 points back of first place chasing the Leafs, so a win today is huge for the Jets.  Add on the fact they have 5 days off after this game so you know they will be eager for a win going into a break.   The Jets came off a long road trip and it was their first game back and they looked flat the last game falling behind 3-0 in the first period.  They also took some bad penalties giving the Leafs 5 power plays.  On the bright side they have to be pleased as they held them to 0 goals on the PP.  Jets coach Paul Maurice said they had last game circled since the beginning of the year knowing it would be tough to come back after that road trip to play the Leafs.  I expect a much better effort from the Jets here today, and like them to get it done at home.  Jets though are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in.  Jets are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. 

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I know this total has dropped 7-points but with the Clippers missing key players tonight I still see this total staying 'Under' the total. The Denver Nuggets have been trending 'Under' games cashing 4 out 6 and with their outstanding teams defense I see the Clips struggling on offense all night long. The Clippers are coming off a horrible home loss to the Orlando Magic two nights ago and their offense was only able to produce 96 points. Defense wins this game tonight and I see the Nuggets winning and this total staying 'Under'. Denver is 1-5 O/U last 6 road games and let's also throw in that the last 32 meetings in LA 23 of them have gone 'Under' the total.

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The Magic are playing well. They are coming off a confidence-boosting win in LA against the Clippers and they have covered in seven of their last nine games overall. This young team plays solid defense and lately they have been able to put together enough offense to stay competitive. The Pelicans have Zion and Ball on the injury report tonight. If one or both can’t go that will help us a lot. We think Orlando can keep this close regardless of the status of those players. The Pelicans have not been good as a big favorite this season. They are 1-5 ATS when laying 7.5 or more points. They could be in a letdown spot after one of their biggest wins of the season against Boston. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Orlando has also covered in all of the last four meetings. We expect a close game here.

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What we have here is an Islanders team that returns home from a road trip that saw them lose back to back games to the Penguins to close out the trip, so I expect a eager and motivated team here to get back on track. Add in the fact this is a big revenge spot as they have lost all 3 meetings to the Capitals this year. Barry Trotz will face his former team now for the 4th time this season and you just know it ticks him off losing to them 3 times already. The Islanders have just 1 regulation loss at home this year as they are 13-1-1-1 at home vs 9-9-2 on the road. I get that its tough going against the Capitals who have a 2 point lead on the Islanders for top spot in the division but the Islanders are desperate for a win here and at home is the right spot for them. Islanders are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

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Today is Opening Day! The Dodgers will begin this year by blowing out the Rockies. The Dodgers have hit 35 home runs in Spring Training and playing in the Mile High City on Opening Day will probably not be good for Colorado. Especially with Clayton Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers. This is a Dodger team that is loaded and even if Kershaw gives up 3,4, or god forbid 5 runs, it might not matter. Our biggest MLB Future was on the Dodgers to win over 102.5 games and why not start with a huge win here in Denver? These Dodger bats are for real and look for them to show up on Opening Day in Colorado. Note, that Kershaw did not have a great spring training and this is a great opportunity for him to start off on the right foot here as we like him to come out and prove something right off the bat. Look for the Dodgers to get going on the right foot today and with the Rockies having so many injuries and having lost Arenado from last year and not picking up Trevor Story's contract this year, it likely will spell offensive trouble for Colorado. Also, a stat that will help us that Kershaw has under a 2 era lifetime on opening day in his MLB Career, Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games when the total is set at 11 or higher and the Rockies are 3-9 in their last 12 games at home as a home underdog as well.

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The last 2 times that Toronto played in Oklahoma City they ended up winning by 9 points in each of those 2 games. Toronto is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Oklahoma City and Oklahoma City is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing a team that has a win rate below .400 on the road. Toronto has averaged 112.7 points per game on the road this season shooting 44.9% as a team and I expect them to step up defensively here tonight. Toronto is definitely a much better defensive team than they have showed lately and they will come into this game extremely focused especially after giving up 118 points to Detroit and 122 points to Portland. Toronto has shot 37.6% as a team from beyond the arc on the road this season and they have also shot 81.6% as a team from the line on the road this season. Meanwhile Oklahoma City has struggled to defend the perimeter shot at home this season with opponents shooting 38.2% against them from beyond the arc. Play Toronto ATS   

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Today, I like the Leafs to get it done as the road favorite.  The Leafs will be motivated in this one as they come off a OT loss to Edmonton.  They have been great on the road this year as they are 10-4-1 on the road.  They have had success against Hellebyuck he has a 3.01 GAA against the Leafs this year vs a 2.57 GAA on the season.  They Leafs have allowed just 8 goals in their last 3 games which is a big improvement.  Alot of that success has to come between the pipes as Jack Campbell since taking over the duties for Andersen is 6-0 with a 1.48 GAA.  The Leafs sit just one point ahead of the Jets for first place in the division so a win here will create some seperation for the Leafs.  I know its tough going against the Jets at home but they are just 2-5 following a win their last 7 games.  Look for the Leafs to focused coming off a loss and grab a big road win.  Maple Leafs are 14-4 in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Maple Leafs are 14-6 in their last 20 games playing on 1 day rest.     

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