Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 9. (Read 12605 times)

I like the Pistons at home today to hang tough.  I know it's scary going against the Trailblazers but I think the Pistons will get up to face an elite team like the Trailblazers at home.  They come of a nice win against the Raptors sweeping that season series, winning all three games.  This is a team that in the last 10 games covered the spread against Brooklyn twice, Charlotte, and Indiana.  Jerami Grant is the Pistons offensive star and has had less than 10 points in his last two games.  I expect a much better game from him here today.  I think this is a good match up for the Pistons as they have a low scoring offense but now face one of the leagues Portland's terrible defense who are allowing an avg of 115 points per game.  On the flip side you have a Portland team that is coming off 3 straight wins on the road, but who have they played?  Toronto, Orlando, and Miami are their last 3 wins which are all teams that are struggling.  This is the last game of the road trip for them before they head home and have the Bucks on deck.  I think they might be looking ahead here to the Bucks and eager to get on the plane and get home.  Portland is a very public team which makes me think they are laying a few to many points here giving us some value on the Pistons.  I think this game means more to the Pistons then it does to the Blazers.  Put it all together and I like the Pistons at home here cover and hang tough.  Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

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Lets wrap this International Break with a solid win here as we take the visitors, Bulgaria over Northern Ireland. Both of these sides know they are very unlikely to qualify for the World Cup coming out of a Group that includes Italy and Switzerland, though this could be a great turning point for the Bulgarians with a win pulling them up to third. The visitors have already lost to Switzerland and Italy at home, both two goal losses and are now on a four match winless run having also lost and drawn their last two Nations League matches in November. The did have a solid showing against a very good Ireland side, running out to a scoreless draw. For the host, they are winless in their last seven matches with five losses. They come off a 2-1 home loss to the USA after losing 2-0 at Italy. Both of these teams would make solid second division sides anywhere in Europe, however they just are not incredibly competitive on the world stage. This is the first meeting since 2008 with the Bulgarians winning the last three, including two in a row in Belfast, with one of those wins a World Cup qualifier.

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I'll roll with the Magic here to hang tough against the Clippers.  If you are the Magic, is this not your "Super Bowl" of games at this point in the season with nothing to play for?  Especially after trading Fournier, Gordon, and Vucevic.  The Magic lost to the Clippers earlier this season by 26 points so they have some revenge here as well.  This is a Magic team that came with in 3 points against the Lakers last time out and held them to just 96 points.  Prior to the Lakers they covered against Portland and Phoenix.  In their last 10 games they also managed to cover against Nets, Knicks, and Heat twice as well.  That is very impressive for this Magic team.  They are getting up to face elite teams as of late.  If you are the Clippers you just come off a game blowing out the Bucks and will be on a back to back.  Do you really think they care about blowing out the Magic when they have Denver, Lakers, and Portland on deck?  I dont think they care much and this is likely a look ahead spot for them here.  I will take the Magic and the points here to keep this one close.  Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

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The Nuggets made a big move at the trade deadline acquiring Aaron Gordon from the Magic for only a few pieces, so Denver feels like they have a chance to make a deep run again this season. This is a great chance for them to test themselves against one of, if not the best, top teams in the East. Philly did little to nothing at the deadline and who could blame them, they are 32-14 and rolling towards the top spot in the East. They will need all their weapons to get this win and without Embiid it may be a struggle. Take the Nugs to get the cover and win fairly easy.

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The Bruins look for their 5th Win in the Tournament as HC Mick Cronin's stock continues to rise. Cronin has gotten the most from this Bruin squad that was on life support in the play in game, down 15 to Tom Izzo's Spartans before finding March Magic. The combination of Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.5 ppg/ 7.5 RB) & Johnny Juzang has been lethal. In the win over Bama in OT, Juzang had to watch from the bench after fouling out with his weakest effort ( 5 of 18 from the floor / 1 of 6 from 3). If he can regroup & put up numbers like he did in the first three "Big Dance" contests (22.5 ppg / 9 of 23 from 3) on (26/51 from the floor) UCLA should not only cover but have a great shot at winning the game. We believe Hunter Dickinson will get his 17 point Tournament average but the Bruins need to keep Franz Wagner from turning around his weak 3-point shooting where he has gone just ( 2 of 12) from downtown. If Mick's guys do that, Juwann Howard & the Wolverines will be heading back to Ann Arbor after the game.

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As per our selection on Wales, this is a very important game for the side as they will likely be fighting tooth and nail with the Czechs for second place in the group and that coveted spot in the 2022 world Cup. This Wales team is a side that is coming off a 3-1 loss to Belgium, but let's face it, that was a result we saw coming as Belgium is one of the best teams in the world. Now they get to return home where they have not lost a competitive match since November 2019 - a run that spans 11 games (9W, 2D). They now face a Czech side that is coming off a solid draw against Belgium, but they were severely outplayed and were lucky to come away with the point. Nonetheless, they'll take it, but this trip to Wales is going to be extremely tough for them to find the motivation to compete for 90 minutes. Fatigue will set in and Wales will be able to seal the game away in the second half.

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We roll with the Jets here to get it done on the road.  These two teams have split the current series 1-1 but I look for the Jets to bounce back here.  Look this is a Jets team that has only lost back to back games twice all season.  Needless to say they rebound quickly off a loss.  Hellebyuck will be back in net for the Jets which gives the Jets the edge in goal.  The Jets have taken 4 of 7 from Calgary this year as they clearly have the better team up and down the entire lineup.  The Jets sit just 2 points back of the Leafs for top spot in the division, and with the Leafs playing tonight as well, a win here can put them in a tie or within reach.  Calgary has not been a team that can string wins together as they have shown us all season as they are just 2-7 their last 9 games following a win.  The Jets are the more consistent team here and we like them to bounce back and grab a win.  Flames are 7-15 in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.  Jets are 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.  

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Arkansas is literally two inches away from not being here. Max Abmas, Oral Roberts star player, missed a 3-pointer (by inches) that would have had the Golden Eagles move on, and Arkansas go home. Both the Baylor and Arkansas games on Saturday were eerily similar, with both teams being down by seven points at halftime. However, seeing how both teams responded to adversity brings us to this selection on Baylor. The Bears outscored Villanova by 18 in the second half to cover the -7.5 points that they were laying in that game. Arkansas, meanwhile, was barely able to escape by outscoring Oral Roberts by 9 points in the second half (as an 11-point favorite). Keep in mind Oral Roberts comes out of the Summit League, and Villanova is in the Big East – which has some of the best talent in the country. Baylor also only shot 3-19 from 3-point range (16%), whereas they are the #2 three-point shooting team in the country, on average, at 40%. If Baylor had shot anywhere near their potential vs Villanova, as well as played two complete halves of Baylor Bear Basketball, they likely would have won that game by 20+ points vs Villanova. Arkansas is a great team, but they had a couple lackluster starts vs Colgate and Oral Roberts and we do not see Baylor overlooking the Razorbacks at all. The Bears should win this by double digits.

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I love the Pelicans in this spot. Yes, they should be without Lonzo Ball again tonight but they have gotten used to that over the last few games and they have looked solid. New Orleans beat Boston earlier in the season coming back from 24-points down showing the Pellys that they can beat this Celtics team. Both New Orleans and Boston are on mini winning streaks coming into this matchup but we aren't sold on what Boston did last time out. The Celtics beat OKC by 17 but they were down four going into the fourth against a not good Thunder team. The matchups in this game will be fun to watch but in the end Zion will be the difference maker. Zion is playing at a different level right now and he will be way too much for the Celtics to handle. The Pelicans have a knack for being a live dog and we see that again tonight.

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Looking to back the red hot underdog in this game. Oregon State is playing as well as any team in the country the past 2.5 weeks. The Beavers come into this game winners of six straight games and all against NCAA tourney teams who also rank in the top 34 at Kenpom. On the other end of things Houston has played just two teams (Memphis 2x and Texas Tech) and three games all year versus teams ranked in the top 35. Both of their wins over Memphis were by 3 points or less. Most importantly for OSU in this game is what is expected to be a very slow paced contest which means fewer possessions meaning it will be hard for either team to pull away in this one.

Look for a close game here. Take Oregon State plus the points.

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UCLA's strength is 3-point shooting and they're not too hot inside the arc. But Alabama is nasty-stingy defending the arc. Bama also owns a big advantage on the glass and we saw what the Tide did last time they faced a team that runs a slower-paced offense...they crushed Maryland. The Bruins haven't faced a tempo with the talent level they're going to encounter on Sunday. Alabama HC Nate Oats is 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in a line range that includes today's. And the Tide are 19-9 ATS against teams that make at least 45% of their FGA under Oats, out-scoring the 28 opponents by double digits on average. I'm laying the points with Alabama on Sunday.

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This is not as strong of Seminole team as they have been in the last couple of years. Michigan has had good recent success against FSU and expect that to carry over into this game as well. Florida State has some shaky losses this season to UNC, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech (twice) and if Michigan can shoot it well from the arc, they will take care of business. Florida State is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 neutral site games. Michigan is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games. This team has adjusted to life without Isaiah Livers and will make a deep run this weekend with a good chance to make the Final Four.

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As per your selection on Italy to grab another big win in WC qualifiers, they are on an unbeaten run of 24 games, and over their last seven games, they have five wins and in each of them, they have covered the -1.5 goal line. This isn't the Italy of old as they play an up-tempo style of football with strikers that can score and create chances. Italy now travels to Bulgaria and faces a team that has won just one game over their last 10 and is just simply not very good on both ends of the pitch. We expect Italy to dominate this game and take their chances well, ultimately grabbing a win to nil.

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This is a good fight, they fought back in 2018 and Miocic won as a +170 dog, and is a small dog again, and a live one in many aspects. I like this to be drawn out fight as Miocic is a veteran fighter and knows how to avoid big shots and calculate his attack. No doubt Ngannou can win this and he has power and is dangerous this time around, but Miocic has had 4 fights in 4 years and will be very cautious out of the gate here, I like this past 1.5 rounds.

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Worthy a solid fighter but off a loss in a surprising first round TKO against Azaitar in his last fight, I know he is laser focused for this one, and frankly I thought this line would be -170 or higher, as I think he gets a KO here. Mullarkey was a stud overseas but his first 2 UFC fights have been losses and he is not at the level that Worthy is, and Worthy will be the better and more powerful striker here. KO in my opinion at a cheap number. Mullarkey has not fought anyone this good and already lost 2 fights against lesser fighters. He can punch and Worthy has a weak chin but I think he puts him down early and avoids getting into a slugfest here.

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Remember, Evan Fournier is likely playing in this game getting plenty of minutes and Boston is more than excited to make a run here and what better team to face than OKC who has been flat against .500 teams of late anyway. Remember, this team picked up Wagner as well and a team that struggled so badly in the bench, just destroyed Milwaukee and even dropped 43 points or so in the 3rd quarter. Boston has gotten very good, added depth and I think after the big win yesterday, they really get after it today and go for the huge win over OKC in a likely blowout. Celtics likely roll today.

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Houston is the superior team here Saturday. I have Houston winning this game by 15+ points here Saturday as Syracuse's 2-3 zone will be no match for this Houston team as they beat up on other teams that run that this season. Houston is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games when favored and they have held opponents to shooting just 28.3% against them from beyond the arc this season. Houston will definitely be able to dominate the boards big time against this Syracuse team and Houston has averaged 78.8 points per game over their last 5 games while shooting 46.8% as a team and holding opponents to just 59.2 points per game against them with opponents shooting just 38.7% against them over their last 5 games. Houston's opponents of shot just 37.3% against them overall the season and they have outrebounded opponents by over 9 rebounds per game this season holding opponents to just 57.9 points per game overall. Syracuse has really struggled with turnovers over their last 2 games with 12 and 15 turnovers and if that happens against Houston, they could possibly lose by 20+ points here tonight. Play Houston ATS.

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We like Russia here in a huge bounce back as they come off an ugly 5-0 loss at Serbia in their last Nations League match in November. They have now lost back to back matches and are winless in their last six since lighting it up in the World Cup and having a very strong Euro Championship qualifying run. Russia should be confident in their chances in this group which include Croatia who we believe is their only competition, with minnows Cyprus, Malta, and Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia needs to start on the right foot here against a side they should dominate. For Slovenia, overconfidence might do them in here. They are unbeaten in their last eight matches, but have really only been challenged by Greece. The visitors were poor against Azerbaijan, but dominated the likes of Kosovo and Moldova. Russia won the last meeting at home over Slovenia, 2-1 in 2009 World Cup qualifying, though the visitors picked up the win in the second meeting. We like the Russians with the upside here.

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Arizona is hands-down the superior team here Friday. San Jose is just 3-10 in their last 13 games after a win and Arizona is 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite. San Jose has allowed 35.6 shots on goal per game over their last five games and their power-play has struggled converting just one time with the extra man over there last five games. Arizona has loud just to power-play goals over their last five games and I expect them to play much better against San Jose here tonight especially after beating a very good Colorado team. Play Arizona ML

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Miami is a MASH unit with a ton of players out, Butler, Dragic and others, and they just played last night in a hard-fought grueling loss to Portland and are spent, and now travel to a rested Charlotte team on a days rest after winning their last 2 games of a 5 game road swing and now are at home and ready to go with a youthful lineup who can create some issues for a thin and depleted Miami roster tonight.

Charlotte held their last 2 opponents to 97 points, including San Antonio. Good spot for the Hornets, not for the Heat. Although Ball may be lost for the season, Graham has stepped up at point guard and Heyward and Rozier are formidable. Miami was also active at trade deadline so a lot of uncertainty there as well. 3rd game in 4 nights for a weary Heat team, and Charlotte has better numbers across the board in last 5 game stats in all offensive % key stats.

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